Since Whole Foods are in slightly more affluent locations, they could leverage loyalty from Amazon Prime members to spend more.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/2861736

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Blue Apron had made a major niche with millineals and has an IPO coming. Wonder how much this impacts the model.

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What makes Blue Apron so special that others won't be able to enter the market? I just don't think this is a big point of concern for Amazon/Walmart.

Agreed. Blue Apron will either change its business model, or we won't remember it in 15 years.

There are already multiple competitors to Blue Apron who do the same thing so it's not like they have a monopoly.

Dirt 05 said:

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Blue Apron: Why go out and pay for a meal when for nearly the same price you can cook a clean at home!

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I just don't have to time to buy all those ingredients from the store... There has to be a better way!

I wouldn't be surprised if many of those staff turn into food "experts" hawking the next product they want pushed. Imagine someone explaining why you should buy Amazon store brand butter churned in country diary 15 miles out of town. It's going to be interested to see how vertical integrated into yuppies and wealthy boomers consumerism Amazon wants to get.

And if you haven't been to one of the larger Whole Foods that makes tons of prepare food (a la Austin downtown), I expect that to take over more floor space in every location.

MrJonMan said:

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khkman22 said:

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MrJonMan said:

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Any value in buying Kroger stock? Seems to have taken a hit from this

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A bigger hit from their revised guidance going forward, but down 30% in two days makes it somewhat attractive. Debating if I should pick some up, but haven't had a chance to do any research yet.

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Same situation, simply caught my eye because of the 30% drop

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I bought some. Good gap! I think it'll fill back. There are more Krogers than Whole Foods. Some deliver and some have the Click List. They sell gas too. I did this with Walmart two years ago when Amazon scared them to $50 and now they're $75.

DRE06 said:

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Costco down 8% with the AMZN news. Been looking for a buying opportunity. I like Costco.

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And it's still dropping, now over 13% down. I think this is an overreaction. Costco is not just a grocery store and I don't think it will be greatly affected by Amazon's attempt to enter grocery sales. It is a destination experience for many. You go for free samples, a few supplies, and to see what's new, but then you walk out having spent a couple hundred dollars.

Costco's biggest problem in my opinion is they don't seem to invest at all in online platform.

62strat said:

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Dirt 05 said:

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Blue Apron: Why go out and pay for a meal when for nearly the same price you can cook a clean at home!

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I just don't have to time to buy all those ingredients from the store... There has to be a better way!

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It's called delivery. For less. With zero effort. And probably tastes better.

we do a meal delivery service (not blue apron) and it is extremely convenient and the food is great

62strat said:

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Dirt 05 said:

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Blue Apron: Why go out and pay for a meal when for nearly the same price you can cook a clean at home!

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I just don't have to time to buy all those ingredients from the store... There has to be a better way!

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Blue Apron isn't cheap but it is for sure cheaper than eating out.

Blue Apron's niche is 2-fold and neither is necessarily based on convenience or price:

1. A lot of the ingredients you get in a Blue Apron meal set aren't exactly easy to find at the store.

2. They give you what you need only for the meal. In other words, let's say the meal is Za'atar Chicken. I don't have to go find and buy a full thing of Za'atar spice or a bunch of tahini sauce, 2 things I'll probably not use at all for the rest of the year if ever again... They'll send me exactly how much I need and that's it... that's actually cheaper if you just want a unique meal.

I dunno... I like the services because they aren't that expensive really and it gives my family something different to eat other than the common easy family staples you have weekly like spaghetti, tacos, shepherd's pie or whatever else. Good change-up a couple times a week of something we'll probably not eat for months again is nice.

Comanche_Ag said:

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DRE06 said:

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Costco down 8% with the AMZN news. Been looking for a buying opportunity. I like Costco.

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And it's still dropping, now over 13% down. I think this is an overreaction. Costco is not just a grocery store and I don't think it will be greatly affected by Amazon's attempt to enter grocery sales. It is a destination experience for many. You go for free samples, a few supplies, and to see what's new, but then you walk out having spent a couple hundred dollars.

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The hell it won't be affected. My office used to do Costco for all of our coffee, snacks, paper towels, silverware, cokes, etc. The minute Amazon Pantry became an approved service to use, we stopped going to Costco. Way easier and and about 15% cheaper (that's not even counting the time savings) to get our monthly $500 or so of supplies via Pantry where we don't have to haul all of the supplies upstairs or knock 2 hours out of our day to visit Costco, they just deliver and stock our office kitchen for us. While individuals do Costco, a ton of their businesses come from little offices like mine where just going shopping is way cheaper than signing up with a service like Sysco. If Amazon Pantry takes 50% of that business, Costco is sort of screwed in my opinion. Costco and Sam's are the most at risk from the Whole Foods purchase in my opinion. Way easier to get bulk items delivered to me than having to haul them in my car... and there's definitely economies of scale delivering bulk items than smaller items.

People need to remember that all retail is, is inefficient logistics. That's all. Amazon and online retail has spent the last decade solving and making that logistics inefficiency more efficient. Not sure they'll penetrate market share on non-bulk grocers, but I see them really hurting the Costco's and Sam's type businesses.

I wouldn't touch any grocer right now honestly... they are all crappy buys still considering the situation. Retail is a fragile industry... look at the numbers. All it takes is about a 20% loss of Gross profit for Costco and about a 10% loss for Kroger and those are 2 entities right at break-even. Sounds like a lot... but it for sure wouldn't be a tail event for either considering how the market is changing.

I agree with what you say that Amazon can certainly affect Costco sales. However, I'm not sure Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods (the supposed reason for the 13% drop) has significant bearing on that.

Comanche_Ag said:

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I agree with what you say that Amazon can certainly affect Costco sales. However, I'm not sure Amazon's acquisition of Whole Foods (the supposed reason for the 13% drop) has significant bearing on that.

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One of the things Costco openly considers a massive competitive advantage is that they attract a ton of younger buyers into their stores is their organic produce offering. Their model hinges on getting people in the door. People who come in the stores spend WAY more on bulk items than they do online with Costco... hence, why they don't invest online.

Now, Amazon comes in and buys Whole Foods... you know, probably the industry leader in organic produce and can easily compete w/ Costco? Not only do I see Costco start to lose business buyers to Amazon Pantry eventually, but Whole Foods gives Amazon a completely built in value chain in one of Costco's biggest differentiation points to get individuals in stores.

Add those 2 things up and you get to a world where Costco's Gross Margin is severely threatened.

Oh yeah... and apparently something like 50% of Costco members happen to be Prime members too allegedly. Costco is for sure ****ting their pants right now.

We recently got a Costco membership. Very few things in there are actually a good value...but people get lured in by the notion of bulk savings. I do, however, get off on their meat department. It's killer.

My wife and I tried Blue Apron for first time this week. It's awesome. We eat out probably 90% of the time so this is way cheaper and the food has been great.

YouBet said:

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My wife and I tried Blue Apron for first time this week. It's awesome. We eat out probably 90% of the time so this is way cheaper and the food has been great.

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Not to derail ( much) but I looked at Blue Apron and didn't sign up. It seems that you only have the option of signing up for ' PLANS" . I don't see an ability to simply go online and order a meal. I don't want a weekly delivery. I may go weeks without needing hem or may want 3 meals... I don't see much flexibility.
Is there an ability to skip a PLAN and simply use the service when I want or is there another service like Blue Apron ?
thanks

I find the Whole Foods acquisition so fascinating because people all are thinking about automated checkout and spot grocery delivery... but I actually think the angle will be curated grocery services... basically like Blue Apron but with more staples delivered alongside just the meal where you get like a quasi but not fully customized grocery order like twice a week. From a business perspective, Amazon wins because it would be a way for them to scale order particular groceries and create huge efficiency in distribution.

I'll put it this way: 10 years ago if you would have told people there'd be a bunch of successful companies that would start and their businesses would be sending you meals of their company's choosing or sending you clothes they think you'd like based on preferences you set the reaction would have been 'no way man! i like to pick my own stuff out! it will never work!'... I see no reason groceries is different than any of that. No more making a list or going to the store and waiting in line... that's all sort of a pain to do. You put a few things in your preferences like you are allergic to shellfish or pine nuts or you are a vegetarian or you don't like cabbage and they just sort of create a list for you, deliver the food and charge you for it. Hell, with advancements in AI, I'd bet they even get to a point where they are able to effectively eliminate most of your family's food waste, etc.

It all sounds nuts today, but those are the ways they will probably change and disrupt the market... automated checkout and stuff like that is cool and futuristic... but is it REALLY changing much in terms of time or money you save? No... it's just eliminating a portion of what we all know isn't that fun of an experience. Amazon is probably going to attempt to just eliminate that entire unpleasant experience altogether and create more efficiency through distribution scaling.

What's interesting about e-commerce and where it seems to be going is that if you think about it, the trend seems to be that people don't really like making choices or thinking about what to buy or how much of it to buy... they'd rather it all just sort of show up.

The Original AG 76 said:

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YouBet said:

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GMy wife and I tried Blue Apron for first time this week. It's awesome. We eat out probably 90% of the time so this is way cheaper and the food has been great.

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Not to derail ( much) but I looked at Blue Apron and didn't sign up. It seems that you only have the option of signing up for ' PLANS" . I don't see an ability to simply go online and order a meal. I don't want a weekly delivery. I may go weeks without needing hem or may want 3 meals... I don't see much flexibility.
Is there an ability to skip a PLAN and simply use the service when I want or is there another service like Blue Apron ?
thanks

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No, it's not that flexible. It's plan based.

The other big service that might be more flexible is Hello Fresh.

We do Home Chef and it kicks ass.

News today that Blue Apron's IPO will be priced at $10-11 per share rather than the $15-17 they expected just a week ago. Not a lot of buyers out there so far.

The Original AG 76 said:

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YouBet said:

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My wife and I tried Blue Apron for first time this week. It's awesome. We eat out probably 90% of the time so this is way cheaper and the food has been great.

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Not to derail ( much) but I looked at Blue Apron and didn't sign up. It seems that you only have the option of signing up for ' PLANS" . I don't see an ability to simply go online and order a meal. I don't want a weekly delivery. I may go weeks without needing hem or may want 3 meals... I don't see much flexibility.
Is there an ability to skip a PLAN and simply use the service when I want or is there another service like Blue Apron ?
thanks

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It's plan based, but you don't have to get it every week. So when you get a delivery, it'll be for 3 meals or whatever. But you could make it to where you only get a delivery one week a month or something. That's how my wife and I have done it, trying both Blue Apron and Hello Fresh.

Squirrel Master said:

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The Original AG 76 said:

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YouBet said:

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My wife and I tried Blue Apron for first time this week. It's awesome. We eat out probably 90% of the time so this is way cheaper and the food has been great.

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Not to derail ( much) but I looked at Blue Apron and didn't sign up. It seems that you only have the option of signing up for ' PLANS" . I don't see an ability to simply go online and order a meal. I don't want a weekly delivery. I may go weeks without needing hem or may want 3 meals... I don't see much flexibility.
Is there an ability to skip a PLAN and simply use the service when I want or is there another service like Blue Apron ?
thanks

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It's plan based, but you don't have to get it every week. So when you get a delivery, it'll be for 3 meals or whatever. But you could make it to where you only get a delivery one week a month or something. That's how my wife and I have done it, trying both Blue Apron and Hello Fresh.

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just heard on one of the business channels that Blue Apron has a HORRIBLE customer retention rate. That makes perfect sense . This is almost like the old Columbia Record Club thing from the 60's. Sounds great and has a great product until you forget to tell em to STOP or your lifestyle changes or whatever. No matter how easy they make it to skip or delete or pause it still requires an action and after 6 months or 2 years or whatever most folks simply tell em to cancel and return to a simpler lifestyle. Pretty soon your available world of new sign ups begins to shrink as you still have that horrible retention rate.
This MIGHT appeal to me IF they made it where I could go online, build a meal, order it and its delivered that evening or tomorrow. This is right tin Amazons domain and I think it will kick the hell outa the Blue Apron type companies once its up and running.

The Original AG 76 said:

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Squirrel Master said:

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The Original AG 76 said:

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YouBet said:

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My wife and I tried Blue Apron for first time this week. It's awesome. We eat out probably 90% of the time so this is way cheaper and the food has been great.

---

Not to derail ( much) but I looked at Blue Apron and didn't sign up. It seems that you only have the option of signing up for ' PLANS" . I don't see an ability to simply go online and order a meal. I don't want a weekly delivery. I may go weeks without needing hem or may want 3 meals... I don't see much flexibility.
Is there an ability to skip a PLAN and simply use the service when I want or is there another service like Blue Apron ?
thanks

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It's plan based, but you don't have to get it every week. So when you get a delivery, it'll be for 3 meals or whatever. But you could make it to where you only get a delivery one week a month or something. That's how my wife and I have done it, trying both Blue Apron and Hello Fresh.

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just heard on one of the business channels that Blue Apron has a HORRIBLE customer retention rate. That makes perfect sense . This is almost like the old Columbia Record Club thing from the 60's. Sounds great and has a great product until you forget to tell em to STOP or your lifestyle changes or whatever. No matter how easy they make it to skip or delete or pause it still requires an action and after 6 months or 2 years or whatever most folks simply tell em to cancel and return to a simpler lifestyle. Pretty soon your available world of new sign ups begins to shrink as you still have that horrible retention rate.
This MIGHT appeal to me IF they made it where I could go online, build a meal, order it and its delivered that evening or tomorrow. This is right tin Amazons domain and I think it will kick the hell outa the Blue Apron type companies once its up and running.

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I tend to agree with this. Seems they could make it to where the user can choose to do daily confirmations through an app. Instead of requiring you to be proactive and go say send or stop, the app would pop up with a prompt; do you want to confirm the next delivery. If there is no response, the user can choose whether that means yes or no.

But I agree, I have monthly deliveries for canned pet food, litter and diapers, and now and again, we have too much and I need to skip a delivery, and honestly, I usually forget to do it... and that's just once a month. Luckily it's non-perishable, so we just end up with a few boxes in the garage, and my window to catch the NEXT cycle is a long time.
This is 3-4 times a week with highly perishable foods. You end up going to happy hour and eating there, so then the meal that arrived that day sits until the next day. Then something comes up, you work late.. all of a sudden, you're behind a few meals. You log in to skip a few meals cause you decide last minute to go out of town that weekend, but 2 more orders are already processed and will be shipped.

Talk about bad timing for Blue Apron. Amazon files trademark "We do the prep. You be the chef"

Blue Apron didn't have a chance, even before Amazon. There was no signifigant advantage over competitors Hello Fresh or Plated for sustainable growth.