quote:

---

longterm models are getting colder and colder. Buy order @ 8.14

---

Please explain your strategy to me. I've never done that on a 3x etf. For me, when I'm ready to buy a 3x etf I place an order close to market (within a few cents). My goal is to hold them the shortest amount of time possible and pick up 2-10%. Sometimes I hold them awhile because they are running my direction (see Russ from Dec 4th to Dec 17). But I view 3x etfs as buying and selling the same day.

What are you trying to do by placing an order at $8.14, which is 40 cents below market and 2 cenys above the all time low?

quote:

---

longterm models are getting colder and colder. Buy order @ 8.14

---

Think it'll see 8.14?

quote:

---

quote:

---

longterm models are getting colder and colder. Buy order @ 8.14

---

Please explain your strategy to me. I've never done that on a 3x etf. For me, when I'm ready to buy a 3x etf I place an order close to market (within a few cents). My goal is to hold them the shortest amount of time possible and pick up 2-10%. Sometimes I hold them awhile because they are running my direction (see Russ from Dec 4th to Dec 17). But I view 3x etfs as buying and selling the same day.

What are you trying to do by placing an order at $8.14, which is 40 cents below market and 2 cenys above the all time low?

---

My guess would be that he thinks it's going to see some decay before natty gas prices start responding to the colder models and thinks it'll get down close to its all time low (which happened on Tuesday) and doesn't want to watch it like a hawk for that low. I get what he's doing.

I got in at 8.20 on Tuesday with a similar order placed, and I'll continue to watch for at least until early next week for a response to continued colder forecasts.

Or I could just be way off base and have no idea what I'm doing.

quote:

---

quote:

---

quote:

---

longterm models are getting colder and colder. Buy order @ 8.14

---

Please explain your strategy to me. I've never done that on a 3x etf. For me, when I'm ready to buy a 3x etf I place an order close to market (within a few cents). My goal is to hold them the shortest amount of time possible and pick up 2-10%. Sometimes I hold them awhile because they are running my direction (see Russ from Dec 4th to Dec 17). But I view 3x etfs as buying and selling the same day.

What are you trying to do by placing an order at $8.14, which is 40 cents below market and 2 cenys above the all time low?

---

My guess would be that he thinks it's going to see some decay before natty gas prices start responding to the colder models and thinks it'll get down close to its all time low (which happened on Tuesday) and doesn't want to watch it like a hawk for that low. I get what he's doing.

I got in at 8.20 on Tuesday with a similar order placed, and I'll continue to watch for at least until early next week for a response to continued colder forecasts.

Or I could just be way off base and have no idea what I'm doing.

---

Almost exactly my strategy. I understand most people get in and out the same day, and that is a great way to avoid decay and make a quick trade. I on the other hand try to figure out when a model will price into futures prices, buy at what I deem is the bottom with decay built in (thus the lower than current price), and hold it for hopefully less than a week with a rip roaring run. Or at least thats the hope. Maybe that makes sense...

Makes sense to me. But what do I know? I'm just a dumbass engineer.

" I on the other hand try to figure out when a model will price into futures prices, buy at what I deem is the bottom with decay built in ..."

quote:

---

Using the current situation with natty, would you explain to me how you determined these 2 things? Thanks!

---

Sorry, I somehow quoted my question instead of your comment. Hopefully it is not confusing.

I think what Jeff is getting at is an open order placed so far off of current market levels is arbitrary.

quote:

---

I on the other hand try to figure out when a model will price into futures prices, buy at what I deem is the bottom with decay built in

---

It's not possible. Quants w/ far more resources than us can't project decay. Decay and it's opposite, compounding are inherent to leveraged funds via futures and mathematics, contango/backwardation and volatility/beta-slippage respectively. NG is one of the worst because of it's volatility.

Your $8.14 will most likely be triggered by decay, not the underlying. The market context, w/ respect to decay and the underlying, when you placed the $8.14 entry will be completely different then when/if it triggers. So, the important part of Jeff's question was the entry, not the duration held.

holy ****.

do these typically change 15% overnight/after hours?

Anybody thinking about UGAZ? I'm pretty afraid at this point to even touch it.

quote:

---

Anybody thinking about UGAZ? I'm pretty afraid at this point to even touch it.

---

should have sold end of day yesterday. Lost my ass this morning.

Natty gas down 4% today. Ouch.

I bought at $7.35 this morning. I know not to try to catch falling knives but ...

Just got out at $7.37 with a wash.

quote:

---

do these typically change 15% overnight/after hours?

---

Yes, which is one reason why I don't often hold them overnight and certainly not over weekends. The only time I hold 2x and 3x etfs for more than 24 hours is when I'm letting my profits run.

This is why I asked about the guy who said he was putting in an order well below market. He said he was basing it on the price for natty had not reflected next weeks weather forecast and he calculated the decay in ugaz between that moment and when he said his order would be filled. Personally, I still don't see how the math could ever work on that. And given the market today, either his math was bad or he was guessing.

When I put an order in on these things they either fill within 5 minutes or I cancel them. These aren't stocks! They are meant for shorterm trading, as in minutes or hours! You need to be right from the getgo or they will eat your lunch money.

UCO is getting all the action today.

Reread parts of this thread, which is now about 8 months running. One thing Georgia Ag posted yesterday that I want to address. He thought that Shiner put that order in that was 40 cents below market (about 5%) because Shiner didn't want to watch the ETF "like a hawk". If you're not willing or able to "watch a 3x etf like a hawk" then my advice is don't get involved. These things move too far, too fast! Again, I'm just offering advice based upon my experiences. Good luck!

quote:

---

Right now the bears are ruling the energy markets. My experience is the price always goes too far in one direction before it snaps back. Natty is kind of being run over by the oil bears, so I will not be surprised to see natty hit $3.40.

---

I posted that quote on this thread 11 days ago. Natty is currently at $3.47. Someone posted after me, that They were confident $3.60 was the floor. Normally they might be right, but this is not a normal energy market right now. My point in bringing the quote back up is to remind everyone that this is not a normal energy market. So all the technical charts and weather reports matter, but they can be temporarily overrun by an irrational market. And clearly the energy markets are in a downward trend.

These 3X etfs are shortterm so they can wipe out your money while you are waiting on rationality to return. So please be careful. I hate seeing Aggies lose money. Thanks and good luck!

I may really regret this but I got back in at $7.25. Will have to ride out the weekend.

Why would you buy a 3X before the weekend? I would never do that unless I had inside knowledge of something that would definately force the etf to open higher on Monday morning. I hope this works out for you, but I don't understand taking this risk. You would be better off to go to a casino this weekend.

Agreed. That trade has pretty terrible risk/reward.

Great points, Jeff.

But NYMEX is open during the weekend. As long as you're familiar w/ your broker's after hours trading function and pay attention, I don't see a problem.

What does NYMEX being open have to do with being in a 3X ETF over the weekend? That trade is going to look ugly tomorrow.

Said leveraged ETN's underlying are futures traded on the NYMEX.

$3.22, btw!

quote:

---

Said leveraged ETN's underlying are futures traded on the NYMEX.

$3.22, btw!

---

I get that, but what does being able to watch the underlying trade over the weekend do for you when you are in the ETN. It's going to gap down Monday morning before you can get out.

Now everyone can see the danger in buying a 3x Friday afternoon. You better have inside info if you are making that trade. UGAZ down 25% from Friday's close to Monday's open. I expect natty to test $3 this week. If it holds then it should test $3.40 and if it doesn't hold $3 then it could go as low as $2 over the next month. Momentum is clearly still on the downside.

quote:

---

quote:

---

So Arson has bought so I know tomorrow is the day to buy and I should be able to get it for $8.50.
jk. Love your guts!

---

I posted the above last Wednesday, in jest to Arson who I greatly respect. I know it finished below $8.50 today. I want to make clear that I am NOT buying and holding UGAZ at $8.50. I day trade stuff, meaning I'm literally in and out the same day. As noted these 3x etfs have tremendous decay so rarely do I hold them for more than a day; until they bottom out and change direction. I DO NOT try and catch a falling knife. I got more than enough cuts in my younger years to do that anymore. As someone posted today, this etf could go to $6 before it goes to $11. Daytrading, I will jump in and out of stuff, but I'm not buying this etf at $8.40 today and betting it hits $11 by the middle of next week.

Right now the bears are ruling the energy markets. My experience is the price always goes too far in one direction before it snaps back. Natty is kind of being run over by the oil bears, so I will not be surprised to see natty hit $3.40. I'm not saying that it will. I'm saying I'm not taking the risk that today was the bottom because this has been the bottom for most of the year now.

Please don't put money into these things that you wouldn't be willing to gamble in Vegas with. Short term trading can eat your lunch!

---

I posted this on Dec 8th and it turns out that UGAZ never even hit $10, much less $11 before falling below $6. Learn this - do no try to catch falling knives!

I posted some energy stuff on the oil thread (houston, we have a problem). It is pertinent to dgaz/ugaz as well as all energy etfs. We are in a bear market when it comes to the energy sector.

quote:

---

I may really regret this but I got back in at $7.25. Will have to ride out the weekend.

---

I hope you sold this Monday morning

quote:

---

arson keg 12:33p, 12/3/14
L
AG
in for 5,090 shares of UGAZ at $9.86 entry price

---

Arson hasn't posted since he made this purchase. Hope you just didn't lose $25k in 3 weeks.

And these posts at the start of December are just sad to read now.

Lost $13k in the fun money account for not listening to my gut right before Thanksgiving. Looks like the boat will have to wait until next year, unless some crazy winter weather happens over the next 6 weeks.

Too early to get in? Gas still have more to drop? Sub $3 now

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/cold-to-make-a-comeback-across-1/39524375

I'm completely out, but here's a little tidbit.