Is there a reason yall prefer DTO over DWTI/UWTI?

UNG going down.

DGAZ over $5!

How low does natural gas go?

Production continues to increase:



Injections still gaining on the average according to the latest storage report:



Weekly forecast:

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October 23-30th: Another reinforcing surge of cooler air will sweep through the upper Great Lakes and Northeast Friday and Saturday to drive moderate heating demand as lows drop into the 30s and 40s. However, the rest of the US will be relatively comfortable with limited demand for heating or cooling, including over the southern US where highs will mainly be in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Demand will be Moderate over the Northeast and Low elsewhere. A colder weather system is expected to arrive late next week.

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Back above $4.

$4.10/MMBtu and forecasts are colder through the week:

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November 3rd-10th: Warmer temperatures will set up over the southern and eastern US early this week as temperatures to near or slightly warmer than normal. However, colder Candian weather systems will track across the northern US beginning late this week with cooler temperatures returning to the eastern US. Lower early demand will again become moderate late in the week.

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This is not investment advice!

There are lots of ways to play the energy markets. You can google energy etfs, oil etfs or gas etfs. There are 1x, 2x and 3x funds. These funds are tied to different things so do your research. You can invest on the price of oil or gas or oil & gas cos, etc. Lots of choices.

Obviously DGAZ (gas bear) and DTO (oil bear) are 2 of those choices.

I've had people ask me about what's available to trade if they believe the price of crude is going up. There are ETF's for that and different ways to play it depending on what you want to hone in on (example - the price of west TX oil). The following list of oil bull etfs is not a recommendation, it is purely informational in case some people here were not aware.

DIG, ERX, UCO, DBO, OLO, UWTI, CRUD, USO

Do your own research and decide if any of these are right for you in your future. The point of my posts was ownly to provide information to those who didn't realize there are more energy ETFs than just DGAZ and DTO.

Thank you

trying to decide on when to catch this falling knife

couldn't resist DGAZ today

just picked up a nice big block of shares at $3.57

Small pop on the high 91 Bcf injection number. However, into the withdrawal season 238 Bcf and 261 Bcf below last year and 5-year min. average respectively.

W/ these production numbers, are we heading to a NG glut next year? Sure, long term w/ energy generation, transportation, heating and LNG exports there will be plenty of need. But that's still years away and seeing the steep injection slope on the storage report, barring a worse winter than last, I think would lend to a surplus next year.

Wee...

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couldn't resist DGAZ today

just picked up a nice big block of shares at $3.57

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That's going to leave a mark...

Just buy more!

My consultant said look for gas to shoot to $4.50 this morning. He arvised me to short it at $4.50. He's been killing it for me on gas for the past year and shorting the euro and long the dollar over the past few months.

Did he give any reasoning for it stopping at 4.50 and not closer to 4.75 or higher? Prices are already climbing and we have a strong cold weather system moving through the next few days - week. Coupled with the injection not quite getting us back up to the 5 year average and it seems like a recipe for higher than last year gas prices through the winter.

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Small pop on the high 91 Bcf injection number. However, into the withdrawal season 238 Bcf and 261 Bcf below last year and 5-year min. average respectively.

W/ these production numbers, are we heading to a NG glut next year? Sure, long term w/ energy generation, transportation, heating and LNG exports there will be plenty of need. But that's still years away and seeing the steep injection slope on the storage report, barring a worse winter than last, I think would lend to a surplus next year.

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I'm not following your logic here. In the first paragraph you say that we're behind on storage compared to years past but then you ask if there will be a glut. What am I missing? I guess with El Nino this year our winter could be more mild which would mean weaker demand than last year but I still don't see how we'll have a glut when we're so far behind...

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What am I missing? I guess with El Nino this year our winter could be more mild which would mean weaker demand than last year but I still don't see how we'll have a glut when we're so far behind...

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Production.


Look at how quick we gained on the storage deficit.

Even w/ a similar winter as last we'll have a weaker withdrawal because of production.

So, high production w/ weaker withdrawal means less stores to replenish next year. Similar production as this year during Spring/Summer/Fall of 2015 would lend to a glut. Please, correct me if I'm approaching this incorrectly.

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Did he give any reasoning for it stopping at 4.50 and not closer to 4.75 or higher? Prices are already climbing and we have a strong cold weather system moving through the next few days - week. Coupled with the injection not quite getting us back up to the 5 year average and it seems like a recipe for higher than last year gas prices through the winter.

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I think today's climb was as a result of next week's forecast. Despite the deficit, today's storage report was bearish w/ the 91 Bcf injection - and we initially saw that reaction before it gave way to the weather forecasts.

There's just too much gas easily brought on line too quickly when the price goes up to provide any price support. We're the Saudi Arabia of natural gas.

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What am I missing? I guess with El Nino this year our winter could be more mild which would mean weaker demand than last year but I still don't see how we'll have a glut when we're so far behind...

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Production.


Look at how quick we gained on the storage deficit.

Even w/ a similar winter as last we'll have a weaker withdrawal because of production.

So, high production w/ weaker withdrawal means less stores to replenish next year. Similar production as this year during Spring/Summer/Fall of 2015 would lend to a glut. Please, correct me if I'm approaching this incorrectly.

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I see what you're saying...I thought you meant we would have a glut this winter and into the early part of next year. If global demand growth continues to decline, then yes I could see you being correct. However, if growth is steady or strong, I think there are some big LNG projects coming online in 2015 (could be incorrect) that would offer a new outlet for the glut.

DGAZ down to $2.88, Natgas up to almost $4.50...

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My consultant said look for gas to shoot to $4.50 this morning. He arvised me to short it at $4.50. He's been killing it for me on gas for the past year and shorting the euro and long the dollar over the past few months.

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NG eclipsed $4.50 over the weekend and back down to $4.15 today. $4-$4.15 might be the sweet spot for the winter: DGAZ when NG hits $4.50 and UGAZ below $4. Might have a UGAZ opportunity on Thursday's report.

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couldn't resist DGAZ today

just picked up a nice big block of shares at $3.57

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That's going to leave a mark...

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Exited today at $3.79 (11k shares in that trade).

Natural gas right around the $4.00 mark is the grey area for me. I'm happy to go with UGAZ when it approached sub $3.75 and feel good with DGAZ when gas is over $4.25

Gas back up to $4.28.

Consecutive Mondays w/ +18% UGAZ runs. However, I still stand by a large contango on futures and like arson's entries.

DGAZ down almost 13%. Gas prices creeping up to $4.40 now.

Where do yall look to follow NG news or pricing information? I would like to follow this thread, the NG price, and these tickers in order to learn.

Just talked to my consultant. He sees some premium to the long side of this market right now. A lot of the shorts are getting squeezed. He think we may see a run up over $5, maybe close to $6 with some more cold weather, and wants to roll into a significant short position as he thinks supply will continue to outpace demand through '15. I'm not holding any contracts right now.

40 Bcf on last weeks injection report. Estimates for tomorrow's all point to the first withdrawal report; -4 to -11 Bcf.

$4.47 MMBtu overnight.

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Tune in at 9:30AM CST, Friendly. If it's an injection report, enjoy the fireworks.

-17 BCF withdrawal. Nice bump today.

http://www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/natural_gas/analysis_publications/storagebasics/storagebasics.html
Good explanations on the link above for any non-nat gas gurus.

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-17 BCF withdrawal. Nice bump today.

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It was a nice bump, crater and then an incredible rebound. We swung from a high $4.53 to a low $4.29 overnight. Already reading projections that next week's withdrawal will be January like.

It looks like UGAZ and DGAZ have disconnected from the underlying (both down)