DGAZ and DTO are back on my radar. I may have to hold these for more than a day though. Might wait and see how the weekend shakes out, but they are definately on my radar.

Gas finally ready to start coming down?

Does this have 10% daily swings I assume?

Natural gas gonna go down? Looks like it's near a 2 yr high

Back over $3. Wish I had bought in.

Pow pow

exited today at $3.12 (bought in at $2.82 on 6/9)

another excellent gain

will continue to have this on the radar

selling my DTO today.

Not a huge gain (almost $2/share) but not sure where oil pricing goes from here

For you smart guys, where does oil find the bottom?

back in DGAZ today for 6,330 shares @ $3.95

it's going to be highs in the low 80s here in a few days in Dallas. Injection numbers are going to be high in the next few weeks and I don't see ngas hanging in at over $4

I won't be hanging around long on this one. I have a GTC sell order in at $4.50

quote:

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For you smart guys, where does oil find the bottom?

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Not sure but this tells me ISIS is not a big deal at all and a huge media creation.

XOM just began drilling in Russia. There will be no more Russian sanctions or war. Oil prices down about 15% from highs. ISIS not a big deal.

U.S dollar getting stronger everyday. I'm not confident where where oil goes but I think better chance it sees 80 than 100

Pres. Obama announced intensified bombing of ISIS in Syria and Iraq. How will this impact everything tomorrow?

It means nothing

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

There she goes. On the minute.

Dumping my DGAZ on the report numbers

Nice little +10% trade for a two day hold

Actually, made right at 11.5%

Great job Arson. I slept on it and didn't get in.

Good call Arson.

Obviously taken with a truckload of salt, I've read a few things stating that we can expect an unusually cold winter?

Will you start looking to go long before the weather gets cold? Or do you think more production/higher inventories going into winter will not squeeze the price as much?

Hard to predict winter, 3 months out

I'll continue to evaluate on a week to week basis


4 months ago ng looked to be very strong, but then the weakest summer in decades led to high injection after injection


No way I'd pick a position for "winter" here in Sept

From Tudor this morning

"
Gas storage preview ($4.0/mcf) Despite a warm week, market is looking for another well above average injection. For those counting, this is the 2nd warmer than normal week after a several week string of mild summer weather. This week's 75 cooling degree days well above 65 CDD norms and higher than last week's 71. Wk/wk uptick in CDDs should help moderate injections but market looking for a bigger 85 bcf injection (vs 79 last week). Mid 80s injection well high of 65bcf norms for the weekimplies a 3.5bcfd oversupplied market.

2015 natural gas price ($4.0/mcf) Despite the Polar Vortex induced euphoria, we've stuck by our 2015 $3.75/mcf gas price forecast since the beginning of this year. In the last couple of months, market sentiment has turned 180 from an extremely bullish to decidedly bearish stance. While 2015 Street consensus is still $4.5/mcf, recent sell-side updates are dropping forecasts into the high $3/mcf range (similar to our $3.75). All good except we've become incrementally bearish on 2015 pricing. We see $3.75 as a possibility but now this seems more like an upside case. No change yet to our "official" forecast, but a FY $3.50/mcf average seems more realistic with parts of the year potentially hovering near $2.5 (needed to incent coal-gas switching).

2015 gas price E&P cash flow implications (E&P $780) Expecting Street estimates to come down materially for gas weighted E&Ps over the next six months as current Street 2015 estimates are based on a ~$4.5/mcf price. At that level, our gassy universe is trading at 7x 2015 EV/EBITDA. Adjusting towards a $3.5 scenario would expand multiples ~2x. Further, cash flow for the group would fall ~$3.7B or 17%. Hard to get excited about the equities with this backdrop especially given average NAV upside of only ~10%. A 10-15% pullback from here is very possible, with high beta, high leverage names like UPL and XCO most at risk."

Back in DGAZ late this afternoon at $4.09 for 7,335 shares

I think the next couple of weeks are going to be ugly for gas

I got in at $4.07 today well.

nice run on DGAZ the last few days

Quite a few people I follow think Nat gas has a large potential to rise significantly this winter, based on technicals. I'd like to see it fall a bit more then consider an entry. Thoughts?

quote:

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Quite a few people I follow think Nat gas has a large potential to rise significantly this winter, based on technicals.

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what "technicals" ?

the only thing propping up natural gas was the harsh winter and how bad it dug into storage numbers. the mild summer eliminated that huge hole and now the market is 3+ bcf/d OVERSUPPLIED


just look at my post from TPH a few posts up. Pretty bearish view on nat gas going forward.

just look at how quickly the storage has been replenished

very weird action today

nat gas was expected to have a low 90s injection. instead, it came in at 97 indicating more oversupply. and yet nat gas reversed and went positive.

I was surprised too.

Purportedly due to a report that nuclear generation is/will be down some amount as plants due service and maintenance. Traders hoping the difference is picked up by gas. Thing is, there is less demand in general right now (in the fall), thays why they do maintenance right now.

I expect another good storage increase next week and expect a good drop in prices. I'm using this as another buying opportunity.

Sold 2,000 shares at 4.32 today. I'll be back in on any dips

Time for UGAZ?

http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html

Injections into storage still gaining on the 5 yr. average. Forecasts are mild for October.

However, given the above I would have thought DGAZ/UGAZ would have reacted like recent Thursdays w/ similar context. Instead, the inverse happened - UGAZ up and still climbing. I don't understand why.

let's just say I've played DGAZ pretty hot/heavy so far. Up almost $27k on DGAZ/UGAZ trades.







My latest purchases were averaged around $4.05 and I had a sell order in at $4.60 that got executed yesterday.


I have no DGAZ or UGAZ at the moment. Watching the market dynamics closely to determine how to play oil/gas trades going forward.

Well done. Jealous at your bankroll. Jeez.

keep in mind those are rolled up cost basis/proceeds. lol, I didn't buy $167k in DGAZ in one transaction

Lol, ok.