Auto Loan v Lease

1,534 Views | 35 Replies | Last: 12 yr ago by AggieBQ03
claym711
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Just thinking this through and would like some help/feedback. Considering true cost to own and subsequent maintenance/repairs on a 6-10 year old vehicle (for someone that cannot perform parts replacements themselves), it seems that you come out ahead by leasing unless you keep the car for longer than 10 years.

Take an example case, new car, Infiniti Q50.
- $45,000 car financed at 4.25% for 60 months with $5,000 down. $741/mo payment
- A 39 month lease for $413/mo with $3,000 initial payment. Option to purchase for $25,000 at end of lease.


After 39 Months
You will have paid $28,900 on the loan + $5,000 down = $33,900. You'd still owe $14,900 on the note and have a a car value of approx $26,000. Essentially you have a $11k asset after spending $34k

On the lease, you will have paid $16,100 + $3,000 = $19,100. If you invested the $2,000 saved on downpayment along with the $327/mo saved and returned 5%/year, you'd have $15,800 after spending $19m.

After 78 Months
Take it out to 78 months. In a loan you'd own the car outright, worth around $14m and have saved $10m over the lease payment for 18 months = $24m, after paying $48m to get there.

Or, you'd be through a second lease with approx $24m in hand, after paying approx $39m to get there.

After 117 months / approx 10 years
In the own case your car is worth around $5m and you have now saved approx $33m w/returns = $38m - but in addition to your $48m spent, you likely had $5m in repairs = $53m.

In the lease case, your invested sum has become approx $30m and you've spent approx $59m on lease costs.
dustinwill
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Another potential plus for the lease is that your residual may end up being well higher than the market value of the car and you walk away letting the manufacturer eat the difference.

I had this happen with a car when the new body style came out, had a residual of 25k and an estimated market value at that time of around 19k. Leasing allowed me to just turn it in and let the manufacturer take the 6k hit.


Matsui
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I'd cross post this on the Automotive board as well.
Waltonloads08
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I dont want to work the math on my phone, but i would think this works best in luxury vehicles over some certain dollar threshold. Most people arent buying a $45K infinity.
diehard03
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Leasing exists for these reasons - it lowers the cost of entry for these luxury cars, as the math suggests. You aren't trying to own the car and you don't want to keep it for 10 years, that's the whole point...
Less Evil Hank Scorpio
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Where did you get the number for the residual on the lease? Evaluating that and the depreciation on the car if purchased are the most difficult IMO. Especially when it comes to luxury vehicles (not so much on infinitis, but more on BMW, MB, etc), depreciation can be a real beast.
claym711
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Residual came from Infiniti's website. I approximates the depreciation based off similar model in Edmunds TCO calculator.
AggieBQ03
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Hint, the reason they push the lease on people is because the dealer makes more money that way.

Also, pay cash for your car and then save the monthly payment in an investment. Then how much better does buying end up than leasing?
Less Evil Hank Scorpio
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Well then sounds like you have as good an estimate as possible. Is this purely academic or something you did consider/are considering?
Less Evil Hank Scorpio
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Ramsey-ites are gonna love this thread.
The Collective
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If you have to go luxury, why not buy a lease return and drive it for 2 years, and then trade it in for another similar car?
mazag08
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I remember doing something like this in a finance class.

1. Do you buy new?
2. Do you lease?
3. Do you buy used?

I think the most cost saving measure was to buy new and sell/trade in every 2-3 years.
bthotugigem05
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The dealer doesn't care how you finance a car, I promise. They can hide profit better on a lease, but to make a blanket statement like "the dealer makes more on a lease" just isn't true.

Dealers push the lease because 95% of car buyers are payment-driven and a lease is a much lower payment.

Leasing is good if all of the below are true:
1) You don't mind always having a car payment
2) You know that you'll always want a new car every few years
3) You're at a fairly predictable life stage in terms of driving habits

If any of the above isn't true, don't lease. People reading Business & Investing boards aren't the norm in America these days. The average car loan now is 66 months. Think about that. Over half of all vehicle loans are for longer than 5 1/2 years! People generally get the itch to buy a car every 3-4 years, which just makes it a big cycle of negative equity, small down payments, and bigger monthly payments.

The Ramseyites are encouraged to look at a vehicle as a tool and nothing more (there's absolutely nothing wrong with this). Much like some of the paleo diet crowd think of food as fuel and nothing more. I enjoy driving and find that my enjoyment is enhanced by driving a car with some balls. I have a reasonable payment that isn't preventing me from saving and investing elsewhere. Best part is, I know I like driving new cars, and I get the chance to get into one every 3 or so years, no worrying about resale value or anything like that.
ORAggieFan
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4.25% seems high (not that I've shopped for Infiniti specifically). Usually lots of options for much lower rates.

Getting 5% return can be tough as this really isn't a long-term play and who knows what the market will do. Another 2008 and you're down a lot.
The Collective
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Great post, bthotugigem05. I am not a car guy, so it’s not a place I will sink my luxury $. Many times on this board, people will take the extreme viewpoint that spending money on a car is bad, bad, bad, but if you view it for what it is – a high-priced luxury item, rather than merely a fixed-asset on your family’s balance sheet, then you can argue for buying something that doesn’t pass the “finance test”. Is there a utilitarian value to a car? Absolutely. But for some people, there is also a luxury value as well. My brother is more interested in cars and has twice the commute as me. He buys luxury cars, because he spends a great deal of time in his car. It’s worth it to him to pay that mark-up, and he has the means to do so.
jh0400
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quote:
Hint, the reason they push the lease on people is because the dealer makes more money that way.

Also, pay cash for your car and then save the monthly payment in an investment. Then how much better does buying end up than leasing?


These exercises assume you start at zero. If someone currently doesn't have a car or the money sitting in a savings account with which to purchase a car, would you suggest that they walk or bike until they have saved enough money to purchase a car with cash?
Satellite of Love
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Aren't most leases restrictive about how much milage you are allowed to put on the vehicle?

I own b/c I don't want to be hassled with driving less than X amount of miles per year.
diehard03
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Another thing...do leases typically have a total lease term + option to buy LESS than the price of the car?

19.1m + 25m = 44.1m

I feel like the math is goofy.
jh0400
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Assuming no trade in and sales taxes paid up front:

(Price (Capitalized Cost) - Residual Value- Down Payment) = Value at end of lease

(Price (Capitalized Cost) - Residual Value- Down Payment) x (1 + Money Factor)/(Lease Term) = Payment
VanGogh@1
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[This message has been edited by VanGogh@1 (edited 2/11/2014 3:43p).]
POW
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I am car payment free & hope to never have one again. I hope to run my vehicles as long as possible & am now investing in the tools necessary & attempting to teach myself how to do basic maintenance & repairs. The personal satisfaction from working on your car yourself far outweighs the money you are saving, & the money you are saving is pretty nice too.

Between all the car specific forums & YouTube you can find a detailed, step-by-step, instructions to just about any job for any car.

My best friend growing up leases his truck. His family always leased though. My family always bought used, & generally tried to pay cash. I think a lot of people don't even think about the financials, they just do what they think is normal.
Stive
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quote:
Ramsey-ites are gonna love this thread.

THE FIRST thing I thought of when I read the OP.
diehard03
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quote:
My best friend growing up leases his truck. His family always leased though. My family always bought used, & generally tried to pay cash. I think a lot of people don't even think about the financials, they just do what they think is normal.


Does your best friend know you think you're better than him?
POW
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quote:
Does your best friend know you think you're better than him?


Absolutely he does!
diehard03
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quote:
Assuming no trade in and sales taxes paid up front:

(Price (Capitalized Cost) - Residual Value- Down Payment) = Value at end of lease

(Price (Capitalized Cost) - Residual Value- Down Payment) x (1 + Money Factor)/(Lease Term) = Payment


mmm...somehow I'm still dense...I get that the lease payments are based on you paying the depreciation + some interest for using their money, but it seems like with a 25k residual value that they aren't even paying enough for the depreciation, let alone the money factor.
Waltonloads08
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Im thinking for an average well to do family, owning one car outright, and leasing the other for 3-4 years is maybe a good combo. Save money to pay cash to replaced the owned one after 10 years or whatever with a new car, and cycle leases every 3-4 years.

Maybe some would call this "car hedging".

This is what im going to try out soon though..maybe.

[This message has been edited by waltonloads08 (edited 2/4/2014 4:02p).]
Waltonloads08
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[This message has been edited by waltonloads08 (edited 2/4/2014 4:02p).]
DRE06
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It seems like buying new would never be the best financial decision.

Why not buy a 1-3 year old low-milage car that is Certified Pre-Owned. You let the original owner take the massive hit in value in year 1, but being CPO you still get all the warranty benefits of buying new.

And a 4.25% assumption is pretty high. I think my wife's auto loan is at 2.5%.

She bought a 2 year old CPO SUV w/23k miles for $26k that would have been $40k new.

[This message has been edited by Dre06 (edited 2/4/2014 4:18p).]
diehard03
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quote:
It seems like buying new would never be the best financial decision.


It all depends on how you qualify it. There maybe options or selections you want that make buying new a better choice for you...rather than trying to find it used somewhere.
ORAggieFan
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quote:
It seems like buying new would never be the best financial decision.

If you live your life by making only the best financial decision your life is pretty boring. You have to enjoy things at times (and I agree, I bought certified pre-owned my last vehicle).
ORAggieFan
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quote:
It seems like buying new would never be the best financial decision.

If you live your life by making only the best financial decision your life is pretty boring. You have to enjoy things at times (and I agree, I bought certified pre-owned my last vehicle).
The Collective
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quote:
If you live your life by making only the best financial decision your life is pretty boring.


Do you guys know how quickly those European vacations depreciate? DO. NOT. WANT.
AgsMyDude
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quote:
quote:
If you live your life by making only the best financial decision your life is pretty boring.


Do you guys know how quickly those European vacations depreciate? DO. NOT. WANT.
Sooner Born
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CJS
Dan Scott
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I love what ORAggieFan said.
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