Mr.Bond said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Little off-day food for thought exercise

Who reaches their milestone?

JV with 300 Ws or Josie with 3k hits...Both, one, or neither?

I think Jose gets 3k and JV falls short of 300 Ws.

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Jose had insanely better odds than JV. I don't think JV comes close

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I think JV might have a very hard time getting a deal with a contender this off-season.

Is it just me, or is the tone a little funny here:

Quote:

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AL WEST

Houston Astros (86-73). Clinched division title and locked into the No. 3 seed in the AL playoffs. Fell 8-1 to the Mariners on Wednesday in the decisive game of a three-game series. After a day off on Thursday, close the regular season with three games at Cleveland.

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Ag_07 said:

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Little off-day food for thought exercise

Who reaches their milestone?

JV with 300 Ws or Josie with 3k hits...Both, one, or neither?

I think Jose gets 3k and JV falls short of 300 Ws.

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I think neither. JV probably only has 1-2 years left and likely won't even be full seasons

Jose I think gets close with about 2800 hits

Probably just you lol

OKCAg2002 said:

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Best case scenario is that they have to burn Skubal on Sunday to get in. He'd be available in game 3 of the Wild Card with 3 days rest.

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The best case scenario for the Astros is that Tigers end up the 5 Seed and the Royals are the 6 Seed.

I think if he can stay somewhat healthy and stay apart of a 6 man rotation, he can get to 300. I don't see him making it much past that.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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On 97.1, A.J. Hinch said it’s “unlikely” Tarik Skubal would pitch Sunday if the Tigers have already clinched but are still playing for seeding

— Cody Stavenhagen (@CodyStavenhagen) September 26, 2024

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White Sox also pushed Crochets start in order to disrupt the Tigers chances. If they can win that start Tigers will almost certainly have to use Skubal on the final Sunday.

Farmer1906 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Little off-day food for thought exercise

Who reaches their milestone?

JV with 300 Ws or Josie with 3k hits...Both, one, or neither?

I think Jose gets 3k and JV falls short of 300 Ws.

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JV won't even get a little close. Jose has a chance, but I think he ultimately falls a little short.

Jose has to average 154 a year over the next 5. I think he can do that for another 2-3 years, but I think the final 2-3 years will doom him.

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Jose lost almost 2 full prime years. The short COVID season and 1 plus to injuries in 2019 and 2023. 2 years of 180 hits each will matter. With them he easily makes it and would probably end close to 3300.

2024 was a great season for Jose's personal quest for 3,000 hits

he exceeded expectations with 183 hits (plus 1 or 2 more in Cleveland)

in good shape to reach 2,400 by the end of next year

dcaggie04 said:

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wangus12 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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Little off-day food for thought exercise

Who reaches their milestone?

JV with 300 Ws or Josie with 3k hits...Both, one, or neither?

I think Jose gets 3k and JV falls short of 300 Ws.

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I think neither. JV probably only has 1-2 years left and likely won't even be full seasons

Jose I think gets close with about 2800 hits

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Yeah 2020 and missing half of last year might have screwed him.

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If you compare him to Biggio, Altuve is ahead of where Biggio was after 14 season by about 80 hits.

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Biggio also played until until 41. Altuve is under contract until 39.

Biggio was able to play everyday even when old. If the Astros are contenders it's going to be hard to run out an ineffective Altuve everyday.

JV wants to pitch until he's 45 which makes 300 seem doable assuming he gets healthy again.

I hope Whitcomb gets the start tomorrow .... Need to have a better game to go into the off-season feeling a little better

Marvin said:

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Royals tied with the Nats and the Tigers are losing to the Rays. Don't care who the Astros play, but lose enough to force their #1s to pitch Sunday.

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Cook

I think it bigger than Yordan. We may not win that game if marwin doesn't do that and nobody knows how that series would have ended. But it's close. Both massive HRs

That Marwin HR got me thinking, about who's provided us the most win probability in the WS.

WPA
1. Springer - 1.45
2. Berkamn - 0.66
3. Bregman - 0.55
4. MARWIN - 0.36
5. Pena - 0.30
6. Vizcaino - 0.27 (lolwhat?)
7. Gurriel - 0.26
8. Maybin - 0.16
9. Siri - 0.07 (bet you didn't see that coming)
10. Burke - 0.05
11. Maldonado - 0.05 (ahead of Altuve, Tucker, and Alvarez)
...
13. McCullers - 0.01 (for offense, not pitching)
...
20. Correa - -0.02
...
24. Alavrez - -0.03
...
38. Bagwell - -0.17
...
40. Altuve - -0.18
...
43. Tucker - -0.19
...
46. Biggio - -0.39
...
50. Ensberg - -0.76 (dead last)

Yordan's 3 run shot that ends up being the difference in Game 6 2022 has a negative WPA?

Mathguy64 said:

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Yordan's 3 run shot that ends up being the difference in Game 6 2022 has a negative WPA?

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That moment alone was +0.338.

He was +0.23 in 2022. Tied with Bregman and just behind Pena.

He was negative in his earlier WS.

Mathguy64 said:

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Yordan's 3 run shot that ends up being the difference in Game 6 2022 has a negative WPA?

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I'd guess it's a combination of being a DH (aren't they docked for this), his .200 average and .692 ops.

Marwin had a nice career and one of my favorite Astros over the past decade or so. Dude is a real ball player who could play anywhere. He was on the crappiest of crap Astros teams and was clutch in the 2017 WS.

Farmer1906 said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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Yordan's 3 run shot that ends up being the difference in Game 6 2022 has a negative WPA?

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That moment alone was +0.338.

He was +0.23 in 2022. Tied with Bregman and just behind Pena.

He was negative in his earlier WS.

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Ah I see. This is cumulative WPA. I was thinking it was per event.