Yeeeeah I'm out to anything resembling the Chapman deal. Already too much deadweight with older players being injured although we do have some of that falling off the books.

W said:

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yep, the "locking up your core" phenomenon that started 5 years ago or so...

is taking on water as more long-term signed players...turn out to be very average or injury-prone or both

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The Julio, Wander, & Tatis deals don't look nearly as good as they did a few years ago.

Hornbeck said:

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One thing that is going to play into the Bregman deal is the condition of his throwing elbow. From what I've heard, it's bone spurs in his elbow. Hopefully he can get that repaired, and be right back at it next year, but it could turn into a LMJ or an Uncle Mike type situation. If I'm Dana, short term is the only thing I'd do.

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Alex had bone spurs in his elbow after 2018 too. Once the ALCS was over he got surgery and was back for spring training.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Hornbeck said:

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One thing that is going to play into the Bregman deal is the condition of his throwing elbow. From what I've heard, it's bone spurs in his elbow. Hopefully he can get that repaired, and be right back at it next year, but it could turn into a LMJ or an Uncle Mike type situation. If I'm Dana, short term is the only thing I'd do.

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Alex had bone spurs in his elbow after 2018 too. Once the ALCS was over he got surgery and was back for spring training.

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Then he had a monster 2019 with the juiced Judge baseballs.

Framber will be a FA after next year as well. Is it a foregone conclusion that he's going to get a big contract elsewhere after how he's rebounded this season?

he has 2 years left on his contract

could be a trade deadline acquisition if the Blue Jays will eat part of his 2026 salary

speaking of Framber...

Dana's actions at the trade deadline this year...show he values starting pitching above all else

maybe Framber is Dana's true #1 resign target -- and not Bregman or Tucker

W said:

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he has 2 years left on his contract

could be a trade deadline acquisition if the Blue Jays will eat part of his 2026 salary

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Why would you want him?

I assume he will try hard to bring Kikuchi back. Seems like Framber will want to be a free agent, but that's just speculation.

Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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he has 2 years left on his contract

could be a trade deadline acquisition if the Blue Jays will eat part of his 2026 salary

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Why would you want him?

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How does Springer compare to Jake and Chas?

Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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he has 2 years left on his contract

could be a trade deadline acquisition if the Blue Jays will eat part of his 2026 salary

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Why would you want him?

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Fangraphs has him at -6.7 defensively to go with the atrophied bat. His fWAR is 1.5.

Baseball Reference has him at -.5 dWAR to go with a bWAR of 1.5.

We already have an outfielder who is a negative fielder in Yordan (-15.5 on Fangraphs, and -1.3 dWAR on Baseball Reference).

At this point in his career he's a below average bat and a liability in the field, and trending to be worse.

Hulla Baller said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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he has 2 years left on his contract

could be a trade deadline acquisition if the Blue Jays will eat part of his 2026 salary

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Why would you want him?

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How does Springer compare to Jake and Chas?

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Better, but not by a lot and not costing near the same. George can't even play CF now.

The Orioles trying to clinch the AL East. pic.twitter.com/bcPforMsW3 https://t.co/tE1etd4Ktp

— Erin (@erin_mmg) September 19, 2024

you could say the same for the mariners

George was never going to age well as the typical athleticism-dependent OF who also plays the game really hard. Even with us in his prime he struggled to avoid injuries from his style of play and you knew that would seriously catch up to him in his 30s.

With free agents (especially Boras free agents) it is always about the money. But Bregman ought to be thinking really hard about the details beyond the contract. For someone who is so intense and obsessive when it comes to baseball, he cannot take for granted what he has here: since his first full big-league season, he has NEVER experienced a season where he wasn't playing ball in mid-to-late October.

For such a competitor, I wonder what would happen to him mentally the first time he plays for a team that misses the postseason or is a quick 2-3 and out, because that is what life normally looks like for most teams. He should not take for granted what he is a part of here in the "golden era."

Hulla Baller said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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he has 2 years left on his contract

could be a trade deadline acquisition if the Blue Jays will eat part of his 2026 salary

---

Why would you want him?

---

How does Springer compare to Jake and Chas?

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Chas is off the charts bad this year (-.2 fWAR and -.6 bWAR).

Jake has a 1.3 bWAR and a 1.9 fWAR compared to Springer's 1.5 in each. Jake's value is in his defense, while Springer's value is in his declining bat.

Mostly though Jake has 3 Arb years left, while George has two more years at $24.166 million each.

Faustus said:

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Hulla Baller said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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he has 2 years left on his contract

could be a trade deadline acquisition if the Blue Jays will eat part of his 2026 salary

---

Why would you want him?

---

How does Springer compare to Jake and Chas?

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Chas is off the charts bad this year (-.2 fWAR and -.6 bWAR).

Jake has a 1.3 bWAR and a 1.9 fWAR compared to Springer's 1.5 in each. Jake's value is in his defense, while Springer's value is in his declining bat.

Mostly though Jake has 3 Arb years left, while George has two more years at $24.166 million each.

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Good points. I'd rather save that money to resign Alex IMO.

W said:

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speaking of George...

his decline in Toronto has not been pretty

OPS by year:

2021 ---> .907 at age 31
2022 ---> .814
2023 ---> .732
2024 ---> .686

giving long contracts and big money to guys over the age of 30 is very risky business

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True. But Alex is at a position that gets hurt less often (Georges style of play leads to many issues) Alex has an elite glove at 3B and He has always been a more disciplined hitter than George ever was. Alex is a technician at hitting. George always felt like a bull in a china shop at the plate.

A lot of aging players start sacrificing contact for power as they guess more. Biggio was a perfect example who started sacrificing contact and average for an increased HR rate.

I actually predict the opposite for Bregman. He is power has always been fringy and will likely keep declining as he ages. He might be capable of being a .300+ hitter annually if he stopped trying to drive the ball.

Generally speaking, the power is needed to be a plus player, but this might be an interesting fallback that would allow Bregman to age into a strong defensive 3B who can provide AVG and OBP with minimum pop in the middle to lower part of the order (kind of like a higher OBP Gurriel).

Mr.Bond said:

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W said:

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speaking of George...

his decline in Toronto has not been pretty

OPS by year:

2021 ---> .907 at age 31
2022 ---> .814
2023 ---> .732
2024 ---> .686

giving long contracts and big money to guys over the age of 30 is very risky business

---

True. But Alex is at a position that gets hurt less often (Georges style of play leads to many issues) Alex has an elite glove at 3B and He has always been a more disciplined hitter than George ever was. Alex is a technician at hitting. George always felt like a bull in a china shop at the plate.

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Yes, I don't think it's so easy to replace his level of defense. I'd like to make it a priority to bring him back.

Farmer1906 said:

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W said:

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yep, the "locking up your core" phenomenon that started 5 years ago or so...

is taking on water as more long-term signed players...turn out to be very average or injury-prone or both

---

The Julio, Wander, & Tatis deals don't look nearly as good as they did a few years ago.

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Well, one isn't quite that good a player, one is in jail and will never play again and one is no longer allowed to take his ringworm medication and is a strike away from a season long ban.

MosesHallRAB04 said:

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Bregman has had a bad offensive season for his standards. The biggest concern out of it is his walk rate has plummeted. That's not a Father Time thing really unless he needs lasik.

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This definitely has been the biggest change for Breggy this season. He has (at at least had) one of the best plate disciplines of anyone in MLB. That has not been the case this year, but I'd argue that hasn't been the case for almost the entire team. That is one thing that made our lineup very tough in the years before. Somewhere along the way we changed that.

Walk rate does not necessarily mean lack of patience or similar issues. It can also be due to the fact that pitchers do not fear the hitter as much from a hard contact standpoint so are more willing to challenge him and not try to nibble.

I think they should consider moving Bregman to first if they are going to keep him, but he's not a prototypical 3 guy with power….

Hornbeck said:

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I think they should consider moving Bregman to first if they are going to keep him, but he's not a prototypical 3 guy with power….

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This

I think if anyone can make the move it's Bregs and that would solve a lot problems with A) filling the 1B void on the roster and B) his longevity.

With a Magic number of 6 to clinch the AL West, the Astros have a chance to end this race by Sunday. If we sweep the Angels like we did last weekend in LA, we just need Seattle to go 2-2 with today's game with NYY and a 3 game trip to Arlington. That would give us a 7 game lead with 6 to play.

If we fall short we just need a win ot two at home vs Seattle next week.

Catching Cleveland or NY for a bye would require a 10-0 finish I think if it's even possible.

SpaceCityAg05 said:

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George was never going to age well as the typical athleticism-dependent OF who also plays the game really hard. Even with us in his prime he struggled to avoid injuries from his style of play and you knew that would seriously catch up to him in his 30s.

With free agents (especially Boras free agents) it is always about the money. But Bregman ought to be thinking really hard about the details beyond the contract. For someone who is so intense and obsessive when it comes to baseball, he cannot take for granted what he has here: since his first full big-league season, he has NEVER experienced a season where he wasn't playing ball in mid-to-late October.

For such a competitor, I wonder what would happen to him mentally the first time he plays for a team that misses the postseason or is a quick 2-3 and out, because that is what life normally looks like for most teams. He should not take for granted what he is a part of here in the "golden era."

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I always wonder what the players who played on the Astros thought after their 1st or 2nd season missing the playoffs. Is the money better than the 'ships? I realize 'more is better', but is getting $1M or $5M/year more worth it vs. getting a championships (or 4)?

Kind of hope this is where Altuve and others can step in and offer advice.

Heck, give the players some extra money for non-playing roles. Isn't Breggy the pitcher-whisperer? Give him some scratch for doing that.

~egon

I think it's largely a function they leave to their agents, who take a hefty cut off the top.

If Breggy's walk rate hadn't declined I was going to make the point that if they do adopt a player challenge system in MLB he would definitely benefit from it. I still think it would help him as he does have a great eye at the plate.