Where are you getting 4th worst? We might be 4th worst in the division.

I don't disagree with the just get in mentality but you have to be realistic about that at some point. Keep in mind we might have the toughest August schedule in baseball so we realistically need to be in the division lead by then, not trying to make up ground.

Remember… sometimes things leak out by design. They could be bluffing.

White Sox, Angels, and A's are the only teams with worse records. Thus 4th worst in the AL.

Big Bucks said:

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I hate to say it, but this team simply isn't good enough and has too many holes to make any noise in the postseason barring a miracle. I'd hate to see us further mortgage the future on a long shot chance. Very different than 2017-2023.

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Sadly I agree. This feels like 2016 where we dug ourselves such a hole in April that even getting hot ended up with 84-78 missing postseason

The Porkchop Express said:

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Quote:

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The Astros are targeting a good starting pitcher, a first base bat and a reliever. This year they're going to have to trade their way to the playoffs, especially in the starting pitching department

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Seems like what they should have done in the off-season, no?

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Well yes, if they were any competent in the front office...

The Porkchop Express said:

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Quote:

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The Astros are targeting a good starting pitcher, a first base bat and a reliever. This year they're going to have to trade their way to the playoffs, especially in the starting pitching department

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Seems like what they should have done in the off-season, no?

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Starting pitching looked solid on paper coming into the season. JV, Framber, Javier, Brown, Bielack/France/Blanco to start the season until Urquidy, McCullers, and Garcia could come back mid-season. 3 top-tier starters followed by 2 or 3 serviceable guys to hold down the fort until reinforcements came in.

Bullpen looked ok, but thin, coming into the season. Hader to close, Pressly to replace Neris, Abreu in his spot, and Seth to replace Maton, so 4 solid guys followed by a patchwork that would be shored up by adding Brown and Bielack/France when the starters return. Most people considered the bullpen to be a strength entering the season.

Nobody expected all of the following to occur: Hader to start rough, Pressly to be a disaster, Abreu to struggle, Brown to struggle as much as he has, and Bielack/France to be gone.

The lack of an upgrade at 1B was the most glaring shortcoming.

The roster on paper looked to be among the best in the game- Vegas doesn't make a team the odds-on favorite to win the AL without having some belief that the roster is solid.

The bullpen has been a disaster. Bregman has struggled most of the season, Diaz has regressed, 1B has been a black hole of production, Yordan has been subpar. Pretty much everything that could go wrong, has.

True. With a few rare outings they have been solid. Pressly has been a single-handed disaster.

Seth and Scott have been more than adequate replacements for Maton and Stanek. Montero has been improved. The other guys who have bounced back and forth between Houston and Sugar Land have performed well. Not having a dependable 8th inning guy has been the biggest issue.

Many of us said though that we should go all in on pitching in the off-season. I rode hard for the sign Montgomery campaign. Which hindsight was bad. But we knew we were potentially one injury away from catastrophe. Unfortunately we had more than one injury

Of course, nobody expected the offense to be as bad or inconsistent as they've been

I wonder how much parity is going to increase in the majors just based on the massive spike in SP injuries.

In the old days, you would talk about how a team suffered a big blow losing a key starter at a bad time. These days, you might as well assume you will lose a minimum of 2-3 starters to season ending injuries, or at least injuries that cause extended IL stints.

You look around and SP are dropping like flies.

Going into the season, the Astros had this as a depth chart for SP (in no particular order):
Verlander
Valdez
Javier
Urquidy
Brown
France
Blanco
Bielak

That is eight SP deep on the ML roster (inclusive of long-guys stashed in the pen and those on standby at AAA).

Add in expectation of having Garcia and McCullers return at some point in the season plus Arrighetti waiting in the wings at AAA, and that is 11 bodies. While the saying is that you can never have enough starting pitching, there is only so much SP you can stash unless you have a ton of controllable guys waiting for major league debuts.

After starting with a pool of 11, if Urquidy, Javier, and France are done for the season, you are suddenly down to:
Verlander
Valdez
Blanco
Brown
Arrighetti

while clinging to hope of getting Garcia and McCullers back. 5 out of 11 remaining with a hope of +2. You have had to sign guys off the trash heap just to have warm bodies on the taxi squad available.

And this is not unique to the Astros. How are GMs supposed so assemble enough depth to overcome the massive number of arm injuries, and at what point does luck start driving parity as seasons come down to who has the most pitchers survive the marathon by the end of September?

Ultimately the tough thing is evaluating your own players if you are making trades. Trading guys you don't think are impact players but someone else does is where you get value, whether young or old. For example, you have 3 very similar CF prospects in Loperfido, Melton and Cole. All are good defensive players with power and speed but questionable hot tools. First, you can't even use all 3 if you wanted to so you'd think at least one should be traded but secondly it's highly unlikely all of them wind up as more than a 4th OF or organizational depth. Can you pick and trade the correct one?

This filters to the big league level as well. Do you believe in Diaz as your everyday catcher? He hits the ball hard when he connects and has a big arm but swings at a lot of garbage and game management seems to be an issue. Could you get a #3 starter with a few years of control for him? Would someone like Jansen for 2-3 years at $10-12m per be a better fit as a veteran with a more proven bat?

I'd put Pena in that category as well. He's an average offensive and defensive SS. There's value in that and he's young so some other SS needy team might be a hefty price. Would we be better off with someone like Adames, who is better defensively and has more power?

If we are going all in this year and are committed to riding it out then that's what I would be looking to do in the offseason. Trade one of those 3 OF this year for big league pitching then in the offseason trade Diaz and Pena for a bunch of prospects while signing Jansen and Adames. You'd likely have to move another veteran like Framber to free up the cash but that seems the least obtrusive way to rebuild your farm.

the Astros rank 4th in MLB in home runs

Where would they rank without Kyle Tucker?

When doing that comparison, do we take the top HR hitter out of all the other lineups we are comparing to?


Because EVERY TEAM had a lead HR hitter

SOURCES: #Astros RHP Jose Urquidy is expected to require surgery, and will miss the rest of the 2024 season. pic.twitter.com/6Tm3UNliBG

— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) June 3, 2024

Not surprising

Exactly. It's cherry picking stats to fit a narrative.

We've only gotten 1 full season from him. And I think we got probably his best. He's a 4/5 starter at best

José Urquidy is en route to see Dr. Keith Meister for a second opinion on his elbow. A second Tommy John surgery is on the table, two sources tells @TheAthletic. ESPN was first.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 3, 2024

He has one more arbitration year after this one left. He could come back, or he could be traded or non tendered

So in the TJ pipeline we have Urquidy, on top of Garcia, and completed JV and effectively LMJ. And possibly CJ. The whole rotation.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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SOURCES: #Astros RHP Jose Urquidy is expected to require surgery, and will miss the rest of the 2024 season. pic.twitter.com/6Tm3UNliBG

— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) June 3, 2024

Not surprising

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Yep, exactly what I shared a couple days ago. Sucks. Was hoping I heard wrong.

Haven't heard anything new on Javier. Astros are bracing for the worst but they're not quite as pessimistic as they were with Urquidy so we'll see.

Urquidy would make a very interesting trade option.

Is he good enough that a team would take him on for a rebuilding project post op?

Mathguy64 said:

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So in the TJ pipeline we have Urquidy, on top of Garcia, and completed JV and effectively LMJ. And possibly CJ. The whole rotation.

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As the old saying goes, you can never have enough pitching.

While I have always hoped that we would make the playoffs once again this season, there's a part of me that hopes we don't. Just don't see the team having the moxie or desire to get things turned around the rest of the schedule. Doesn't seem to have the leadership to get it done.
Reason I hope we don't make the playoffs is that this team needs a total reset/overhaul, starting with the GM and manager. Trade Verlander, Bergman, Presley, Valdez, McCormick and possibly Peña and hopefully trade with partners like Baltimore to start replenishing the farm system. Not saying to reset back to 2010-2012 squads, but with strategic trades and free agent signings possibly get back into contention as early as 2025.
A core of Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Diaz , Dubon, Peña along with Meyers and Loperfido is a solid base to build upon. Arrighetti and Brown are tracking well and hopefully Garcia will get back to form when he returns.
Okay go ahead and flame away - just my two cents.

BCEDAg said:

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While I have always hoped that we would make the playoffs once again this season, there's a part of me that hopes we don't. Just don't see the team having the moxie or desire to get things turned around the rest of the schedule. Doesn't seem to have the leadership to get it done.
Reason I hope we don't make the playoffs is that this team needs a total reset/overhaul, starting with the GM and manager. Trade Verlander, Bergman, Presley, Valdez, McCormick and possibly Peña and hopefully trade with partners like Baltimore to start replenishing the farm system. Not saying to reset back to 2010-2012 squads, but with strategic trades and free agent signings possibly get back into contention as early as 2025.
A core of Altuve, Alvarez, Tucker, Diaz , Dubon, Peña along with Meyers and Loperfido is a solid base to build upon. Arrighetti and Brown are tracking well and hopefully Garcia will get back to form when he returns.
Okay go ahead and flame away - just my two cents.

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I get your take but a bit to extreme in my opinion. Plus I don't believe Baltimore would have interest in most of that. They're already there and if they're anything like we were they aren't building with trades.

However I do agree with get what you can for Presley, Bregman, Chaz and Framber

Then resign Tucker

Astros vs. Cardinals RHP Gibson: pic.twitter.com/kxDNCoVzQC

— Matt Kawahara (@matthewkawahara) June 3, 2024

tremble said:

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Honestly makes me glad we haven't shelled out any big contracts for pitchers other than JV (and LMJ in a lesser level). Just too hard to count on guys making it multiple seasons without blowing their arms out.

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Javier got one