The Porkchop Express said:
Other than my angry Yuey Guperfido memes, this is my last post on Abreu.
Even if management thinks he found his swing again in WPB, he didn't magically become a better fielder in 28 days.
By having him play the field over Singleton in the first 2 games of the biggest series of the season to date, they are intentionally making the team worse. There is no justification for that whatsoever.
Beau Holder said:
I would say in the team's last four losses, starting pitching was not the problem at all.
And while one might say the bullpen (or one arm specifically) was last night, the offense had 8.2 innings to do something, anything.
Astros-Twins probables:
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) May 29, 2024
Friday: Ronel Blanco vs. Pablo López
Saturday: Framber Valdez vs. Joe Ryan
Sunday: Hunter Brown vs. Simeon Woods-Richardson
In memory of the incredible and wonderful Angel Hernandez pic.twitter.com/9m00VPnyMs
— FAX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFAX) May 29, 2024
Farmer1906 said:I get that they have some flaws, but if in the end we score a lot of runs and it isn't flukish then the offense is good.Marvin said:Beau Holder said:EastCoastAgNc said:The Astros have scored in exactly 1 inning in 6 straight games, the longest streak since Cleveland in 2017 (also 6)
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) May 29, 2024
MLB record: 8 straight, 1918 Senators
Only teams with a streak of 7 in expansion era (1961):
1974 Orioles
1962-63 Angels
h/t @EliasSports
It's not going to get any better with this team's complete lack of coherent plate approach, unwillingness or inability to change, and dependence on a power stroke that's utterly gone.
Tucker could only carry the rest of them for so long.
This has been my beef all along with hitting. I do not believe the team average speaks to anything beyond each player's ability. I do believe that the coaches may help during the offseason, such as with Pena's stride or load position. During the season, and especially during games, there is no adjustment. It is swing early and often. There is ZERO interest in working pitchers are wearing them down.
For example, the Astros are 1st in batting average and 1st in contact percentage. That seems good, right? Well, they are also 3rd most aggressive in swinging at the first pitch, 29th in pitches seen per at bat, 25th in watching called strikes, and 11th in batting average of balls in play. These stats combine to mean that the Astros are aggressive and make contact at an exceptional rate, but it is not the best contact.
But team slugging, you might say. Well, their 4th-best league ranking is a bit misleading. Take out Tucker and the rest of the team slugs .376 which would rank 21st in baseball. In other words, pitch around Tucker and watch the Astros hack at everything with little concern for any damage done. They swing at everything, they do not perform with runners in scoring position, and they do not hit for extra bases.
Add all that up and the Astros score runs only when Tucker bombs away or the team hits the sequencing lottery... which appears to happen about one inning per game.
TLDR- the hitting coaches are either powerless or worthless.
10th in Runs (5th in AL)
5th in wRC+ (2nd in AL)
7th in Off-WAR (3rd in AL)
How many teams have 9 players with wRC+ over the league average?
We can run out this offense:
4 Altuve - 133
9 Tucker - 183
DH Alvarez - 125
6 Pena - 122
8 Meyers - 149
7 Loperfido - 137
5 Dubon - 121
3 Singleton - 107
2 Caratini - 107
That is a lineup of 135 wRC+. That would tower over the current best lineup of 122 (NYY) or 120 (LAD).
Just because they performed that was in the past doesn't mean it will moving forward. My point is, the offense has been mostly fine as a unit. We do have some boat anchors that see entirely too much playing time.
If we want to point a finger at a major problem, it's the pitching.
Has it been a little better lately? Yes, but here are the season #s.
28th WAR
26th ERA
26th FIP
26th xFIP
May Only
28th WAR
12th ERA
28th FIP
20th xFIP
The improved ERA without the improved FIP worries me it is not sustainable.
Should have used this one instead.All I do is Nguyen said:In memory of the incredible and wonderful Angel Hernandez pic.twitter.com/9m00VPnyMs
— FAX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFAX) May 29, 2024
not advocating trading Press, yet. But he was* a playoff stud. At the current pace the team won't be able to find out if he still is. They need to do whatever it takes to make the playoffs first. If that means making some trades, cutting bait, taking risks in order to do so so be it. The current formula and roster isn't showing they are capable of that thus far.MaxPower said:
Totally agree on trading Chas. We have the depth there. I don't even necessarily need someone who helps this year, just quality prospects.
Trading Pressly would hurt the team this year. I understand he's had a few blowups but his FIP is below 3 and he's a playoff stud. You are officially a seller once you move him so anyone who isn't locked up long-term should be on the table.
We are 16th in RBIs with RISP. Solidly middle of the pack, but way too low to cover for our horrendous starting pitching.Marvin said:Farmer1906 said:I get that they have some flaws, but if in the end we score a lot of runs and it isn't flukish then the offense is good.Marvin said:Beau Holder said:EastCoastAgNc said:The Astros have scored in exactly 1 inning in 6 straight games, the longest streak since Cleveland in 2017 (also 6)
— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) May 29, 2024
MLB record: 8 straight, 1918 Senators
Only teams with a streak of 7 in expansion era (1961):
1974 Orioles
1962-63 Angels
h/t @EliasSports
It's not going to get any better with this team's complete lack of coherent plate approach, unwillingness or inability to change, and dependence on a power stroke that's utterly gone.
Tucker could only carry the rest of them for so long.
This has been my beef all along with hitting. I do not believe the team average speaks to anything beyond each player's ability. I do believe that the coaches may help during the offseason, such as with Pena's stride or load position. During the season, and especially during games, there is no adjustment. It is swing early and often. There is ZERO interest in working pitchers are wearing them down.
For example, the Astros are 1st in batting average and 1st in contact percentage. That seems good, right? Well, they are also 3rd most aggressive in swinging at the first pitch, 29th in pitches seen per at bat, 25th in watching called strikes, and 11th in batting average of balls in play. These stats combine to mean that the Astros are aggressive and make contact at an exceptional rate, but it is not the best contact.
But team slugging, you might say. Well, their 4th-best league ranking is a bit misleading. Take out Tucker and the rest of the team slugs .376 which would rank 21st in baseball. In other words, pitch around Tucker and watch the Astros hack at everything with little concern for any damage done. They swing at everything, they do not perform with runners in scoring position, and they do not hit for extra bases.
Add all that up and the Astros score runs only when Tucker bombs away or the team hits the sequencing lottery... which appears to happen about one inning per game.
TLDR- the hitting coaches are either powerless or worthless.
10th in Runs (5th in AL)
5th in wRC+ (2nd in AL)
7th in Off-WAR (3rd in AL)
How many teams have 9 players with wRC+ over the league average?
We can run out this offense:
4 Altuve - 133
9 Tucker - 183
DH Alvarez - 125
6 Pena - 122
8 Meyers - 149
7 Loperfido - 137
5 Dubon - 121
3 Singleton - 107
2 Caratini - 107
That is a lineup of 135 wRC+. That would tower over the current best lineup of 122 (NYY) or 120 (LAD).
Just because they performed that was in the past doesn't mean it will moving forward. My point is, the offense has been mostly fine as a unit. We do have some boat anchors that see entirely too much playing time.
If we want to point a finger at a major problem, it's the pitching.
Has it been a little better lately? Yes, but here are the season #s.
28th WAR
26th ERA
26th FIP
26th xFIP
May Only
28th WAR
12th ERA
28th FIP
20th xFIP
The improved ERA without the improved FIP worries me it is not sustainable.
I wasn't arguing that the team's issue is limited to timely and effective hitting. But, I think the offense in total is less than the sum of its parts. The offense may be "good enough" but it could be "great" if they made a few adjustments such as being more selective against starting pitching. I could not find the stat, but I have to believe the Astros are middle of the pack at best with respect to quality starts against.
The Astros against George Kirby: Altuve 4, Tucker 9, Alvarez DH, Peña 6, Bregman 5, Meyers 8, Singleton 3, McCormick 7, Diaz 2
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) May 29, 2024
Verlander RHP
redline248 said:
It's crazy how quick everyone seems to be ready to dump Chas. You have to consider things outside of his 81 ABs this year. He's a career .770 OPS, which would put him in the top 60 for 2024. Yordan is not an everyday Left Fielder. Dubon is not an every day LF. I get that he started slow and hasn't been on fire in the THREE games he's played since returning from injury.
Everyone is ready to move on b/c a rookie, who I do like, played pretty well in his 43 career PA and .571 BABIP. If you move on from Chas, you better be damn sure Joey is going to be an above average MLB player.
A final reminder...how many of you were getting ready to cut Jake Meyers last year, let alone 3 weeks ago?
edit: and this isn't a "back of the baseball card" topic like with Abreu. At least not in my opinion. Abreu is old and had downward trends. Not true of Chas.
good thing it's called T-Mobile park tonight...so curse brokenW said:
the Astros have never scored a run against Kirby at Safeco Field
regular season or postseason
Surprised he didn't find a way to get his personal CF from last year Dubon into the lineup somewhere.EastCoastAgNc said:
I can see JV walking into Espada's office after the game last night and telling him Abreu wasnt gonna start today or else
W said:
Kirby's career numbers vs. the Astros:
2-0 with 1.59 ERA in 4 starts
given up a grand total of 4 runs in 22 innings
has not allowed a HR to the Astros
Quote:
I think that's a bridge too far. For one because Dubon isn't an everyday player especially at third. Also my list trades from places of depth to try and get younger and more controllable aside from Framber who could hurt and therefore that move needs to be solid return or when McC/Luace are back
We aren't worse off cutting Abreu, trading press and trading Chaz
W said:
the problem in analyzing the Astros' offensive numbers is simply:
standard deviation
just wild swings series to series in runs scored -- largely dependent on the quality of opponent
20 runs scored in the 2-game series in Mexico vs. the Rockies
20 runs in 3 games vs. the Guardians -- good opponent
34 runs in 7 games vs. the A's
42 runs in 7 games vs. the Rangers
19 runs in 3 games vs. the Blue Jays
that's 135 runs in those 7 series (22 games)
then the flipside:
13 runs scored in 5 games vs. the Mariners
22 runs in 7 games vs. the Yankees
6 runs in the Cubs series
8 runs in the Royals series
7 runs in the Braves series
that's 56 runs in those 7 series (21 games)
Luis Garcia will throw his first live batting practice on Friday, Joe Espada said.
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) May 29, 2024
This is who BEGGED Jim Crane to sign Jose Abreu and shift away from being one of the most analytical front offices in baseball.
— Noah (@YordanForHOF44) May 29, 2024
Fuck Jeff Bagwell pic.twitter.com/aMOvPmsZAe
"I don't regret it."
— SNY (@SNYtv) May 30, 2024
- Jorge López on his glove toss pic.twitter.com/NB0cDJ5w0i
Kyle Tucker is scheduled to be a free agent in 2026.
— Astros Josh (@AstrosJosh) May 29, 2024
Players contracts that will end by the close of the 2025 season:
▪️Verlander ($18M)
▪️Bregman ($20M)
▪️Abreu ($19M)
▪️Pressly ($14M)
▪️Montero ($12M)
▪️Valdez ($12M)
There’s just not reason why Jim Crane can’t extend Tucker. pic.twitter.com/TMonCCgHAo
