***** 2024 Houston Astros Season Thread ***** [Staff Warning]

3,867,261 Views | 67416 Replies | Last: 2 hrs ago by BCEDAg
texasaggie2015
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Watching Abreu is like watching your elderly dog struggle to play fetch. You wake up thinking today might be better but you know in the back of your mind it's time to let him go.

Except you still owe millions and millions of dollars.
iBrad
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EastCoastAgNc said:



Keep preaching about the lack of depth and keep watching guys like France and Blanco step into the big league rotation and have success.

If anything, I think the Astros have shown that there's a great deal of pitching depth when you consider all the arms currently on the IL. Who stockpiles pitching to that extent?

If Framber hits the IL, you'll have a pretty damn good five man rotation on the IL in Framber, Verlander, Garcia, Urquidy, and McCullers. And yet, outside of a terrible HB start and a AAA fill in, our starting pitching has been great.
texasaggie2015
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The problem is... it's still a pretty small sample size for France and Blanco.

They aren't high on France long term. It'll be interesting to see how the league adjusts to Blanco's changeup.

Pitching depth is a huge concern and if you have to rely on these guys to get you to the playoffs.. you're in trouble.

The good news is that help is coming. I just hope Framber's elbow is a big nothing burger. Dana seemed optimistic- but he loves to not tell the whole truth to the media as we've seen a handful of times before. And I get it.
EastCoastAgNc
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bearkatag15
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texasaggie2015 said:

The problem is... it's still a pretty small sample size for France and Blanco.

They aren't high on France long term. It'll be interesting to see how the league adjusts to Blanco's changeup.

Pitching depth is a huge concern and if you have to rely on these guys to get you to the playoffs.. you're in trouble.

The good news is that help is coming. I just hope Framber's elbow is a big nothing burger. Dana seemed optimistic- but he loves to not tell the whole truth to the media as we've seen a handful of times before. And I get it.
We need France to eat some innings in the early and middle part of the season until reinforcements arrive then he can take on the Brad Peacock role of long relief and spot starter out of the bullpen
AgLA06
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BCEDAg said:

texasaggie2015 said:

They needed an arm that was properly rested. That was Henley. If it had been Arrighetti, he would have gotten the call. Same with Kouba or any other arm. Just bad timing.

I don't think Henley will see the big leagues again and it's a shame things went the way they did considering this was likely his one opportunity. But you never know. He's had a cup of coffee in the bigs and maybe if he gets another shot he'll be less amped next time around.

At the end of the day, his dream came true last night and the Astros won.


In hindsight they should have just started the game with "openers". The bullpen was awesome last night. Maybe they learned something if the same situation comes up again in the future.
I think it had more to do with all the games in so few days we have coming up.

I'm sure they would have rathered use our bullpen, but MLB has done us no favors and our pitching staff (bullpen especially) is going to bear the brunt of it this month.

I get what they were trying to do. Just wasn't the pitcher available they needed from AAA.
bearkatag15
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With Henley being sent back down, I assume they will call up another bullpen arm? I guess Dylan Coleman makes sense to come back up.
Farmer1906
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iBrad said:

EastCoastAgNc said:



Keep preaching about the lack of depth and keep watching guys like France and Blanco step into the big league rotation and have success.

If anything, I think the Astros have shown that there's a great deal of pitching depth when you consider all the arms currently on the IL. Who stockpiles pitching to that extent?

If Framber hits the IL, you'll have a pretty damn good five man rotation on the IL in Framber, Verlander, Garcia, Urquidy, and McCullers. And yet, outside of a terrible HB start and a AAA fill in, our starting pitching has been great.
Seriously

Top End
  • JV
  • Framber

Borderline Top / Middle
  • Javier
  • McCullers

Middle / Back End
  • Brown
  • France
  • Garcia
  • Urquidy
  • Blanco

Swing / Spot
  • Bielak

If you take the active roster and IL we could legit have a 10-man rotation. That is before dipping into AAA. There ain't another team in baseball that comes close. Now we need to develop another higher end arm. Lance is aging and injured, JV is old AF, and Framber is leaving after 25 and possibly injured.

That is why I think its key Brown stays in the rotation. We can mess around to move him too much. We need him to develop the slider.
OKCAg2002
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Good article. We all have our biases, but I tend to think Glasnow was right in that the elbow injuries are related to the banning of sticky stuff. When you combine it with the clock, increased velocity, and pain rates, I think the problem surfaces. I don't think there is a real solution, honestly.
agproducer
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The Abreu situation is just really unfortunate. I remember the Astros playing that series against the White Sox in 2021, and he was always a threat at the plate. It's so crazy to see how fast age has caught up to him.

I was excited when we signed him. He was one of the best -- if not the best 1B -- on the market.

Father Time is still undefeated.
W
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a bit surprising to see the "could not see it coming" comments regarding Abreu

it happens to older players frequently. Most notably Yuli after 2021 and Miguel Cabrera before that

the old guys can fall off a cliff very quickly
OKCAg2002
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And do we really "know" how old Abreu is? He plays like he's in his 50s.
Chrundle the Great
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texasaggie2015 said:

Man, I will say... I was one of the biggest Abreu defenders last year and I was optimistic he would turn things around after his back healed up and he started to get hot late last season.

But he doesn't look "off" anymore. He just looks slow. I think he's done. It's crazy how fast father time caught up to him. I expected the power to go down but I thought he was a good enough hitter to give us .280 and 30-40 doubles. It's just beyond unfortunate and nobody could have seen it coming.

It'll be really interesting to see how they handle first base if he doesn't get going by mid-May or so.

I don't know if it's fair to say nobody saw it coming, I seem to remember reading some stats here when he first got signed that this was risky based on his 21/22 metrics.
CFTXAG10
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And he still gets to collect 19.5 mill guaranteed this year, and again next year. Nobody is trading for that contract. At some point in the next month or two somebody is gonna have to make a tough decision.
Marvin
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texasaggie2015 said:

The problem is... it's still a pretty small sample size for France and Blanco.

They aren't high on France long term. It'll be interesting to see how the league adjusts to Blanco's changeup.

Pitching depth is a huge concern and if you have to rely on these guys to get you to the playoffs.. you're in trouble.

The good news is that help is coming. I just hope Framber's elbow is a big nothing burger. Dana seemed optimistic- but he loves to not tell the whole truth to the media as we've seen a handful of times before. And I get it.

I suspect that France would compare very well to #5 starters across the league, maybe even a #4. With JV, Javier, Valdez, and pick one from Brown/McCullers/Blanco/Garcia... he has a place in Houston, in my opinion.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
Farmer1906
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W said:

a bit surprising to see the "could not see it coming" comments regarding Abreu

it happens to older players frequently. Most notably Yuli after 2021 and Miguel Cabrera before that

the old guys can fall off a cliff very quickly

We know everyone falls off eventually with age, but he went from one of the best to one of the worst in a single offseason.

texasaggie2015
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I don't disagree. But if you're relying on a couple #5 (or #4 best case) to carry you to the postseason.. that is less than ideal.
texasaggie2015
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Maybe I'm just naive then. I've always been a fan of Abreu and I certainly didn't expect him to turn into the worst player in the league overnight.
Beau Holder
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Yeah I don't blame Crane for signing him, but the third year at his age and that price was the big mistake. I'm glad he was willing to go into the tax this year given that it was him who did that and the Montero deal. Better be willing to do the same for Tucker.
AgLA06
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Back and neck injuries are the unknown. They're typically life changing even if a doctor finds a way to get you relief.
Farmer1906
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texasaggie2015 said:

I don't disagree. But if you're relying on a couple #5 (or #4 best case) to carry you to the postseason.. that is less than ideal.
This.

When Blair Henley's stuff grades out ahead of you, then you're probably not the dude we need in October.

Farmer1906
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Beau Holder said:

Yeah I don't blame Crane for signing him, but the third year at his age and that price was the big mistake. I'm glad he was willing to go into the tax this year given that it was him who did that and the Montero deal. Better be willing to do the same for Tucker.
EVERYONE was super excided for Abreu. Based on his past, how could you not be? The 3rd year was a question mark, but worth it if he gives you a strong 23 and 24 to make titles runs.
bearkatag15
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Farmer1906 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

I don't disagree. But if you're relying on a couple #5 (or #4 best case) to carry you to the postseason.. that is less than ideal.
This.

When Blair Henley's stuff grades out ahead of you, then you're probably not the dude we need in October.


Stuff doesn't mean much when you can throw strikes. France might not have the best stuff out there but he at least can get outs
RED AG 98
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It wasn't a bad deal to sign Abreu at the time and the money was reasonable. What would be a bad decision is to let him flounder at 1B and not have other folks get substantial reps there and at the plate. No need for Crane to make this an ego thing -- it's not working and the sooner others start taking reps the better. And if in limited action Abreu gets it going batting 9th, that's just pure bonus.
AgLA06
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Farmer1906 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

I don't disagree. But if you're relying on a couple #5 (or #4 best case) to carry you to the postseason.. that is less than ideal.
This.

When Blair Henley's stuff grades out ahead of you, then you're probably not the dude we need in October.


Sure.

Then there's also the fact that results on the mound matter after everyone's done geeking out about numbers on a paper. Practice and analytics are fun to hear about. They can also mean jack on game day.

Just ask Blair Henley after last night.
tjack16
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I think with Abreu too .. at his age one injury can nag a lot longer than when you were younger. It's possible his body just isn't getting over the back injury and likely won't. It's like with Brantley last year. Too many injuries and when he came back he just wasn't the same
iBrad
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Lower back issues ended my baseball career in college. If I put in the reps, I had too much pain to be effective in games. If I dialed back my practice, my swing just wasn't there. And that was at age 20. Back issues in your upper 30s are magnified.

I think that's what we're seeing with Abreu. He may or may not be dealing with pain, but his core has been impacted and he's not the same hitter because of jt.
Beau Holder
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Maybe he wasn't the same but he still looked like a professional hitter. Abreu looks like he doesn't want to be at the plate, doesn't have a clue what they're throwing him, and can't hit it anyway. Like even Maldy looked less helpless from time to time.
AgLA06
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bearkatag15 said:

Farmer1906 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

I don't disagree. But if you're relying on a couple #5 (or #4 best case) to carry you to the postseason.. that is less than ideal.
This.

When Blair Henley's stuff grades out ahead of you, then you're probably not the dude we need in October.


Stuff doesn't mean much when you can throw strikes. France might not have the best stuff out there but he at least can get outs
And eat really valuable innings.

His value was a lot more last year than his stats for our club.

Only 4 guys gave us starting innings last year and was part of the mismanagement of our bullpen. France's record was the second best.

G GS W L IP
Framber Valdez 31 31 12 11 166
Cristian Javier 31 31 10 5 162.0
Hunter Brown 31 29 11 13 155.2
J.P. France 24 23 11 6 138

After this it was Beilack with a big drop off to 80 innings.
redline248
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Farmer1906 said:

AustinCountyAg said:

texasaggie2015 said:

Man, I will say... I was one of the biggest Abreu defenders last year and I was optimistic he would turn things around after his back healed up and he started to get hot late last season.

But he doesn't look "off" anymore. He just looks slow. I think he's done. It's crazy how fast father time caught up to him. I expected the power to go down but I thought he was a good enough hitter to give us .280 and 30-40 doubles. It's just beyond unfortunate and nobody could have seen it coming.

It'll be really interesting to see how they handle first base if he doesn't get going by mid-May or so.
It is pretty telling how they pitch him now. They just feed him fastballs and he has no chance at all to square them up. It is sad to say, but his signing was terrible and has put the club in a very tough spot. I may be in the minority, but I'd rather have big Jon getting the starts. He's got good plate discipline and at least has the ability to hit fastballs. It sure looks like Abreu no longer has the ability to hit anymore.
You're not wrong.

>60% 4 seam or sinker and he mainly just swings and misses.


texasaggie2015
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There's absolutely a role for France on this team. But like I said, if you're relying on him to be a stable piece of the rotation on a playoff team... that is less than ideal.
Farmer1906
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bearkatag15 said:

Farmer1906 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

I don't disagree. But if you're relying on a couple #5 (or #4 best case) to carry you to the postseason.. that is less than ideal.
This.

When Blair Henley's stuff grades out ahead of you, then you're probably not the dude we need in October.


Stuff doesn't mean much when you can throw strikes. France might not have the best stuff out there but he at least can get outs
Sure it does. If your stuff is subpar and you throw strikes then you get hit.

I love France and his story, but I think we need to be realistic to what he is. #4/5/swing type.

Here is how he ranked in expected vs actual last year. (Min 350 BIP)
13th in xSLG vs SLG
25th in xwOBA vs wOBA
7th in xERA vs ERA

Basically, he was one of the more fortunate pitchers.

How many good to great pitches suck at getting Chase, Whiffs, & Ks? He's not some low-exit velo fiend like Keuchel a decade ago either.

Farmer1906
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AgLA06 said:

Farmer1906 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

I don't disagree. But if you're relying on a couple #5 (or #4 best case) to carry you to the postseason.. that is less than ideal.
This.

When Blair Henley's stuff grades out ahead of you, then you're probably not the dude we need in October.


Sure.

Then there's also the fact that results on the mound matter after everyone's done geeking out about numbers on a paper. Practice and analytics are fun to hear about. They can also mean jack on game day.

Just ask Blair Henley after last night.
Are you trying to say he's better than a 4 and should be in the rotation in October?
redline248
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Farmer1906 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

I don't disagree. But if you're relying on a couple #5 (or #4 best case) to carry you to the postseason.. that is less than ideal.
This.

When Blair Henley's stuff grades out ahead of you, then you're probably not the dude we need in October.


Location+ is why France is successful. There also is no measure for how competitive he is, and to my untrained eye he's a damn pit bull on the mound
Beau Holder
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Loath as I am to agree with Farmer once he gets going, I love having France eating innings in the regular season but I always feel like he's 'getting away with it' and eventually the luck will run out. Potentially at a bad time if we're not careful.
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