I was a little tongue in cheek in my post, but I think I said this in the offseason thread - if he hits well for 2-3 months, I would start working on a Bregman-like extension to lock up age 30 and 31. Obviously, not Bregman money but get in now before he reaches arbitration or the sample is so large his value grows too much.Mathguy64 said:Farmer1906 said:
Who's ready to extend Pena?
.400 BA / .390 xBA
.680 SLG / .528 xSLG
.486 wOBA / .425 xwOBA
Last year was a large sample that didn't look like this very small sample. I would like to see if this week isn't a fluke. Or if last year was the fluke.
Give me a season to see then let's talk.
I get the idea of doing it now. It locks in one year cheaper. I just want some more data.
ETA: if this week is any indication then the same question applies to Diaz.
***** 2024 Houston Astros Season Thread ***** [Staff Warning]
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67712 Replies |
Last: 1 mo ago by jkag89
While I want to agree, Pena in April and early May of last year was not the same Pena the rest of the season. I think there was an injury. Others have fairly stated they think his swing was jacked. Certainly the off season work suggests it was mechanical. But I want to see something a bit more long term to have confidence I know what the real Pena is going to turn into.
I suspect the coaches and nerds can tell a lot faster than I can.
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
I suspect the coaches and nerds can tell a lot faster than I can.
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
Braves extensions
Albies: 7 year 35 M
Riley: 10 years 212 M
Strider: 6 years, 75M
Harris: 8 years, 72 M
Acuna: 8 years, 100M
I'd give Pena a 6 year 72M deal that increases each year (12M AAV)
So you'd buy out his 3 ARB years and then extend 3 more years
Albies: 7 year 35 M
Riley: 10 years 212 M
Strider: 6 years, 75M
Harris: 8 years, 72 M
Acuna: 8 years, 100M
I'd give Pena a 6 year 72M deal that increases each year (12M AAV)
So you'd buy out his 3 ARB years and then extend 3 more years
I want to see more out of Peña. Right now he fits into the good player but I feel like I can replace him if I have to. In other words, good to date but not someone I want to marry.
Mathguy64 said:
While I want to agree, Pena in April and early May of last year was not the same Pena the rest of the season. I think there was an injury. Others have fairly stated they think his swing was jacked. Certainly the off season work suggests it was mechanical. But I want to see something a bit more long term to have confidence I know what the real Pena is going to turn into.
I suspect the coaches and nerds can tell a lot faster than I can.
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
Couldnt agree more
That's a pretty good # IMO.tjack16 said:
Braves extensions
Albies: 7 year 35 M
Riley: 10 years 212 M
Strider: 6 years, 75M
Harris: 8 years, 72 M
Acuna: 8 years, 100M
I'd give Pena a 6 year 72M deal that increases each year (12M AAV)
So you'd buy out his 3 ARB years and then extend 3 more years
5 (age 27)
9 (28)
12 (29)
--- Similar to Willy Adames 3 years of Arb ---
15 (30)
15 (31)
15 (32)
As officially to Sacramento for 2025 to 2027
Im looking for Ray Finkle.... and a clean pair of shorts. Im just a very big Finkle fan. This is my Graceland, sir.
MAGA
MAGA
Mr.Bond said:
As officially to Sacramento for 2025 to 2027
Lol what a fail
10k capacity?
wRC+ by monthMathguy64 said:
While I want to agree, Pena in April and early May of last year was not the same Pena the rest of the season. I think there was an injury. Others have fairly stated they think his swing was jacked. Certainly the off season work suggests it was mechanical. But I want to see something a bit more long term to have confidence I know what the real Pena is going to turn into.
I suspect the coaches and nerds can tell a lot faster than I can.
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
Mar/Apr 108
May 100
June 64
July 48
Aug 150
Sep 89
March - May 23
85.9 EV
8 LA
34% HH%
.253 xBA
He was good, but not great early last year. He flashed in Aug when he wasn't hitting HRs but striking out less, walking more, and hitting more line drives.
Like I said before, I was mostly joking about the extension after 7 games. He's hitting the ball better now than he did during his magical 2022 Postseason run.
They still won't even sell 10% of that capacitygambochaman said:Mr.Bond said:
As officially to Sacramento for 2025 to 2027
Lol what a fail
10k capacity?
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Like all of these extension discussions, it depends on the price. But I've always been in the "error on the side of extending him" camp as long as you can sign him for a reasonable market comp.
His offensive performance will drive big swings in his valuation. A young GG caliber SS will yield a moderate price and that's what Pena is bare minimum even if he's meh at the plate. But his value explodes disproportionally if he can hit too.
So locking him in "early" offers huuuge value upside for the Astros if his offensive production sustains at a high level. The downside risk is he becomes an overpaid defensive-oriented SS for the next ~6 years. I think the reward is generally worth the risk. But again, depends on exactly what $$$ amounts we're talking.
His offensive performance will drive big swings in his valuation. A young GG caliber SS will yield a moderate price and that's what Pena is bare minimum even if he's meh at the plate. But his value explodes disproportionally if he can hit too.
So locking him in "early" offers huuuge value upside for the Astros if his offensive production sustains at a high level. The downside risk is he becomes an overpaid defensive-oriented SS for the next ~6 years. I think the reward is generally worth the risk. But again, depends on exactly what $$$ amounts we're talking.
The type of money we're talking (tjack 72 M) would mean ~3/45 in extension. He would need to be a sub 2 WAR player to not be worth it. That should be the back end of his prime. As long as the team believes he can still play a solid SS, then the risk is tiny.
Sign me up
I would certainly prioritize a Yainer extension in the near future. I know he's very early in service time, but to me he is the real deal.
To go from a guy the organization thought of as unable to be an everyday catcher to where he is now shows a serious sign of commitment to his craft. He has a talent to get bat on ball and hit hard. Those qualities alone portend to continued success. And I think he will only get better.
To go from a guy the organization thought of as unable to be an everyday catcher to where he is now shows a serious sign of commitment to his craft. He has a talent to get bat on ball and hit hard. Those qualities alone portend to continued success. And I think he will only get better.
2 HOMERUNS IN THE SAME WEEK?? pic.twitter.com/LodX8P9jx7
— astrosmemes (@astros_memes) April 4, 2024
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Man, imagine how pissed acuna has to be with Riley getting roughly twice as much for half the productiontjack16 said:
Braves extensions
Albies: 7 year 35 M
Riley: 10 years 212 M
Strider: 6 years, 75M
Harris: 8 years, 72 M
Acuna: 8 years, 100M
I'd give Pena a 6 year 72M deal that increases each year (12M AAV)
So you'd buy out his 3 ARB years and then extend 3 more years
Mathguy64 said:
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
Eh...I don't know I'd go that far. He certainly would've helped that's for sure.
The pitching in that series really crapped their pants and I'm not sure Diaz alone would have been enough.
Also remember while Yanier was good last year he wasn't this good. His swing, plate discipline, and approach all look light years ahead of where he was last year and he was pretty damn good last year.
That's what I like the most. He's showing signs of progression that are sustainable and foundational. It's not like he's swinging out his ass and mashing the ball by getting lucky while also expanding and swinging wildly.
He's really come a long way and I'm super impressed.
🚨UPDATE🚨
— Michael Connor (@ConnorMichael) April 4, 2024
I am coming back to your postgame show lives!@LockedOnNetwork is jumping into the live postgame world and I will be your Houston host!
We get started tomorrow night after Astros/Rangers. Go subscribe to the YouTube page now. https://t.co/RvSKlIlAHK
So join me tomorrow night as soon as the Astros and Rangers finish for our first show. Go hit that subscribe button now!
— Michael Connor (@ConnorMichael) April 4, 2024
Wild. No one seemed to see this coming.
Astros changeup usage rate in 2023: 9.3%
— Astros Stats 📈 (@astro_numbers) April 4, 2024
Astros changeup usage rate in 2024: 18.1%*
*Only 7 games
Mathguy64 said:
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
I don't think that's 100% true. The game where it would have made the biggest difference was game 1 (Diaz got 3 at bats in game 2)
Game 1 we lost 2-0 so it's hard to say one guy makes the difference especially when pretty much nobody could touch Montgomery that night
Game 6 and 7 were just blowouts in the end
The 3-year home of the A's.
Capacity
10,624 (Fixed Seats)
14,014 (Total, including Fixed Seats, Lawn and Standing Room)
Field size
Left field: 330 feet (101 m)
Center field: 403 feet (123 m)
Right field: 325 feet (99 m)
Backstop: 58 feet (18 m)
Looking at the google map, I think the RF dims may be generous. Plus it has a normal fence. LHH are going to feast,
Capacity
10,624 (Fixed Seats)
14,014 (Total, including Fixed Seats, Lawn and Standing Room)
Field size
Left field: 330 feet (101 m)
Center field: 403 feet (123 m)
Right field: 325 feet (99 m)
Backstop: 58 feet (18 m)
Looking at the google map, I think the RF dims may be generous. Plus it has a normal fence. LHH are going to feast,
Has anyone had something similar happen with fanatics stuff? I haven't…..yet
Fanatics strikes again! pic.twitter.com/heKruXREBU
— Redbirdriot (@RedbirdRiot) April 4, 2024
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
agproducer said:Been saying this for days! People need to settle down.All I do is Nguyen said:
I'm just sayinSame record through 7 as the 2019 team just sayin 🤷♂️ pic.twitter.com/rfavpDbehw
— Yordan Alvarez Enjoyer (@YAE1722) April 4, 2024
That is just.....wowBregxit said:
That's on purpose. Not a mistake in manufacturing. Definitely a stupid design....in my opinion.
https://www.fanatics.com/mlb/st-louis-cardinals/st-louis-cardinals-fanatics-branded-wild-winner-pullover-hoodie-black/o-4509+t-14891187+p-7966009184035+z-9-38590134?_ref=p-DLP:m-GRID:i-r5c2:po-17
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Farmer1906 said:
The 3-year home of the A's.
Capacity
10,624 (Fixed Seats)
14,014 (Total, including Fixed Seats, Lawn and Standing Room)
Field size
Left field: 330 feet (101 m)
Center field: 403 feet (123 m)
Right field: 325 feet (99 m)
Backstop: 58 feet (18 m)
Looking at the google map, I think the RF dims may be generous. Plus it has a normal fence. LHH are going to feast,
I'll have to get out there for a few Astros games. Watch some real baseball up close in a spring training setting.
If by year's end 80% of losses go to Hader, Pressley and Abreu, this Astros team will set the record for wins in a season by a LARGE margin.
Not worried. ( yet )
Not worried. ( yet )
Strongly disagree here. I've been seeing this a lot. Diaz wasn't great in the postseason- and frankly the bigger issues were Tucker's slump and the inability to win a home game. Also Framber and Javier running out of gas in the last two games. Games 6 and 7 weren't close and Diaz wouldn't have made a difference honestly.Mathguy64 said:
While I want to agree, Pena in April and early May of last year was not the same Pena the rest of the season. I think there was an injury. Others have fairly stated they think his swing was jacked. Certainly the off season work suggests it was mechanical. But I want to see something a bit more long term to have confidence I know what the real Pena is going to turn into.
I suspect the coaches and nerds can tell a lot faster than I can.
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
Should he have been in the lineup more? Absolutely. Would they have won the series if he was? Probably not.
Why does Sacramento have the Massassi Temple where the Rebel Alliance had their base on Yavin IV in the back on the left?Farmer1906 said:
The 3-year home of the A's.
Joe Musgrove with some shots at Josh Hader 👀 pic.twitter.com/VKl2rHvIVW
— Pack the Brew (@PacktheBrew) April 4, 2024
You have to consider the impact of not playing Diaz consistently throughout the season. By the time the playoffs rolled around, Diaz should have been well established as the starting catcher and a big piece of our top 4-5 in the order. But........Dusty.....tjack16 said:Mathguy64 said:
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
I don't think that's 100% true. The game where it would have made the biggest difference was game 1 (Diaz got 3 at bats in game 2)
Game 1 we lost 2-0 so it's hard to say one guy makes the difference especially when pretty much nobody could touch Montgomery that night
Game 6 and 7 were just blowouts in the end
Wabs said:You have to consider the impact of not playing Diaz consistently throughout the season. By the time the playoffs rolled around, Diaz should have been well established as the starting catcher and a big piece of our top 4-5 in the order. But........Dusty.....tjack16 said:Mathguy64 said:
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
I don't think that's 100% true. The game where it would have made the biggest difference was game 1 (Diaz got 3 at bats in game 2)
Game 1 we lost 2-0 so it's hard to say one guy makes the difference especially when pretty much nobody could touch Montgomery that night
Game 6 and 7 were just blowouts in the end
Well that's a different argument. I 100% agree with that… or at least making the switch midseason when it was clear who the better option was.
I don't blame them for going Maldy the first 1-2 months because nobody knew how good Diaz would be. But around June it was clear what you were getting with both
In Sacramento for work quite often so I'll definitely check a game out.
texasaggie2015 said:Strongly disagree here. I've been seeing this a lot. Diaz wasn't great in the postseason- and frankly the bigger issues were Tucker's slump and the inability to win a home game. Also Framber and Javier running out of gas in the last two games. Games 6 and 7 weren't close and Diaz wouldn't have made a difference honestly.Mathguy64 said:
While I want to agree, Pena in April and early May of last year was not the same Pena the rest of the season. I think there was an injury. Others have fairly stated they think his swing was jacked. Certainly the off season work suggests it was mechanical. But I want to see something a bit more long term to have confidence I know what the real Pena is going to turn into.
I suspect the coaches and nerds can tell a lot faster than I can.
To me Diaz is the real wildcard you want to bet big on early. Even more than Pena.
If he plays those 7 games in the ALCS we win WS#3. Dustied.
Should he have been in the lineup more? Absolutely. Would they have won the series if he was? Probably not.
If he had been given consistent playing time and started games 1 and 2, there might not have been games 6 and 7. He had a .941 OPS in September and was largely benched in the postseason.
Obviously the biggest mistake of the ALCS was not starting Blanco.
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