***** 2024 Houston Astros Season Thread ***** [Staff Warning]

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tjack16
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 9:58a, 9/10/24
AG
Mathguy64 said:
tjack16 said:
Mathguy64 said:
tjack16 said:
W said:
the final series vs. the Guardians will be very interesting -- as to whether the Astros go all-in for the 2-seed.

would they start Framber or HB on Saturday the 28th or Sunday the 29th...risking that they would be unavailable for the wildcard series


If we are 2.5-3.5 games back or better I'd go all out the first game and if we win keep pushing.. if you lose then don't worry about it.

As we've seen the most important thing is just get in and get in healthy


It's the last series of the season. Can't be a half game. If it's 3 games I guess roll the dice. 2 or 1 game behind and you can go at it.

We currently have the tie breaker H2H with the 2-1 series win earlier. But I have no clue what the secondary tie breaker is. If you win game 1 you keep trying. It's a big game of Russian roulette. The more you try the more you risk messing up the WC rotation. But the same is true for Cleveland.


Aw my bad got it confused with the Seattle series.


You just focus on getting the lucky baby's mojo ramped up.


70-49 since her birth
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to tjack16 • 10:06a, 9/10/24
AG
tjack16 said:
Mathguy64 said:
tjack16 said:




Aw my bad got it confused with the Seattle series.


You just focus on getting the lucky baby's mojo ramped up.


70-49 since her birth
4,119-3,904 since my birth!
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tjack16
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 10:11a, 9/10/24
AG
First season after my birth was 1994. The strike. So I was the opposite of rally baby

However I was rally baby for the Rockets since they won back to back titles my first two years
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The Porkchop Express
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In reply to tjack16 • 10:17a, 9/10/24
AG
tjack16 said:
First season after my birth was 1994. The strike. So I was the opposite of rally baby

However I was rally baby for the Rockets since they won back to back titles my first two years
My parents used to go to 5-10 games a year. After the 1994 strike, they did not go to another game until I made them go to Biggio's last game in 2007.
My dad has been to 1 game since (the infamous Aaron Judge/ Yankees fans incident in the 2017 ALCS), my mom has been to zero games since.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Mathguy64 • 10:21a, 9/10/24
AG
Mathguy64 said:
If we end up splitting the series 3-3 and tie we would need a 1 game lead going into the series. I don't see that in the cards.
Fangraphs has it @ ~20%, we get a bye. Their formula has hated the Guards throughout. Baseball Ref shows them as "lucky" and us as "unlucky." I agree with you; I don't see it happening.

I want to be on their side of the bracket in the playoffs. Is anyone scared of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, Joey Cantillo, and Alex Cobb in a seven-game series? Sure, their bullpen is very good, but we know what happens when a manager runs out the same handful of arms three or four times in a series.

I would be more concerned about a 5 game series vs Minny or KC.
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Beau Holder
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 10:36a, 9/10/24
AG
I think Bibee is pretty good but get your point.

We looked like dog against the Twins and if they happen to have Buxton, Correa, and Lewis all back in the lineup, that is the one that scares me a bit. And despite what just happened in Houston, the Royals have the starting pitching and speed to cause us problems if Witt plays well.
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_veeyah_
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In reply to Beau Holder • 11:30a, 9/10/24
AG
Beau Holder said:
I think Bibee is pretty good but get your point.

We looked like dog against the Twins and if they happen to have Buxton, Correa, and Lewis all back in the lineup, that is the one that scares me a bit. And despite what just happened in Houston, the Royals have the starting pitching and speed to cause us problems if Witt plays well.
Those are the teams that scare me the most. The teams that just can randomly produce runs. We all know our pitchers can't hold a runner on 1st to save their lives. That last game vs the dbacks, seemed like almost every hit they had their runner on 1st always made it to 3r and just a simple hit brought them in.
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Faustus
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In reply to _veeyah_ • 11:43a, 9/10/24
_veeyah_ said:
Beau Holder said:
I think Bibee is pretty good but get your point.

We looked like dog against the Twins and if they happen to have Buxton, Correa, and Lewis all back in the lineup, that is the one that scares me a bit. And despite what just happened in Houston, the Royals have the starting pitching and speed to cause us problems if Witt plays well.
Those are the teams that scare me the most. The teams that just can randomly produce runs. We all know our pitchers can't hold a runner on 1st to save their lives. That last game vs the dbacks, seemed like almost every hit they had their runner on 1st always made it to 3r and just a simple hit brought them in.
Yainer isn't too bad at throwing the runners out, but you're right in that the pitchers do him no favors.

According to Statcast he's 11th in outs above average (3) as far as caught stealing, but no catcher has had more stolen base attempts in MLB at 74 - and his actual CS% (26%) is 20th.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-throwing
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Marvin
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In reply to tjack16 • 11:49a, 9/10/24
AG
tjack16 said:
First season after my birth was 1994. The strike. So I was the opposite of rally baby

However I was rally baby for the Rockets since they won back to back titles my first two years

In the immortal words of Johnny Fever, I have flashbacks older than you.
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to _veeyah_ • 11:50a, 9/10/24
AG
_veeyah_ said:
Beau Holder said:
I think Bibee is pretty good but get your point.

We looked like dog against the Twins and if they happen to have Buxton, Correa, and Lewis all back in the lineup, that is the one that scares me a bit. And despite what just happened in Houston, the Royals have the starting pitching and speed to cause us problems if Witt plays well.
Those are the teams that scare me the most. The teams that just can randomly produce runs. We all know our pitchers can't hold a runner on 1st to save their lives. That last game vs the dbacks, seemed like almost every hit they had their runner on 1st always made it to 3r and just a simple hit brought them in.
Arizona has a high-powered offense; arguably the best in baseball. Cleveland does not. They're very mediocre. In fact, they're bottom 6 in runs scored in the 2nd half. They're also near the bottom in BA, OBP, SLG, RE24, HH% (dead last), Barrel% (dead last), & EV.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Faustus • 11:53a, 9/10/24
AG
Faustus said:
_veeyah_ said:
Beau Holder said:
I think Bibee is pretty good but get your point.

We looked like dog against the Twins and if they happen to have Buxton, Correa, and Lewis all back in the lineup, that is the one that scares me a bit. And despite what just happened in Houston, the Royals have the starting pitching and speed to cause us problems if Witt plays well.
Those are the teams that scare me the most. The teams that just can randomly produce runs. We all know our pitchers can't hold a runner on 1st to save their lives. That last game vs the dbacks, seemed like almost every hit they had their runner on 1st always made it to 3r and just a simple hit brought them in.
Yainer isn't too bad at throwing the runners out, but you're right in that the pitchers do him no favors.

According to Statcast he's 11th in outs above average (3) as far as caught stealing, but no catcher has had more stolen base attempts in MLB at 74 - and his actual CS% (21%) is 20th.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catcher-throwing
And we know who to blame this on now that savant dives deep.

It's Hunter Brown and the bullpen (Scott, Montero, Abreu). A few others like Bloss & Javier, but they are gone. The only player that is elite at holding runners is Ron White. He's at the very top of the league.
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halibut sinclair
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In reply to gambochaman • 11:54a, 9/10/24
gambochaman said:
Julia at the team up event

My goodness


RULE 1
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Mathguy64
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In reply to Marvin • 11:56a, 9/10/24
AG
Marvin said:
tjack16 said:
First season after my birth was 1994. The strike. So I was the opposite of rally baby

However I was rally baby for the Rockets since they won back to back titles my first two years

In the immortal words of Johnny Fever, I have flashbacks older than you.


I've got shorts with skid marks older than him.
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Farmer1906
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11:57a, 9/10/24
AG
How the Astros' rotation regained elite status


Quote:
When the Astros awoke on June 19, they were 10 games behind the Mariners in the AL West with a 33-40 record. After their loss to the White Sox on June 18, FanGraphs gave them just a 29.3% chance of reaching the postseason.

Houston's starting rotation, typically so reliable during its historic streak, deserved a lot of the blame for its rough start. Through June 18, Astros starters had MLB's seventh-worst ERA at 4.53 and were worth just 3.5 WAR.

The club was also dealing with a serious lack of depth at the time. Justin Verlander went on the injured list with a neck issue on June 18, joining Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers Jr., J.P. France, Jos Urquidy and Luis Garcia among Astros starters on the IL.


...

Entering Monday, these were Houston's starting pitching ranks across all of MLB since the All-Star break:
  • First in ERA (3.28)
  • First in FIP (3.40)
  • First in WAR (5.8)
  • Tied for first in opponents' batting average (.209)
  • Third in strikeout rate (28.2%)

The article goes on to detail Framber, Brown, and Kikuchi's excellence. Worth a read.


Edit:

It end the article with a beauty.


Quote:
Point is, the Astros have enough arms to make another deep postseason run, no matter what happens with Verlander over the next few weeks.


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Marvin
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12:34p, 9/10/24
AG
Just realized Oakland is in town. Why do I feel like the odds are better that the Astros lose this series than sweep it?
I love Texas Aggie sports, but I love Texas A&M more.
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tjack16
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In reply to Marvin • 12:45p, 9/10/24
AG
Marvin said:
Just realized Oakland is in town. Why do I feel like the odds are better that the Astros lose this series than sweep it?


Here's how it'll go

one game = blowout win
one game = struggle win
one game = horrible loss where the offense completely no shows (most likely Thursday)
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Marvin • 12:45p, 9/10/24
AG
Marvin said:
Just realized Oakland is in town. Why do I feel like the odds are better that the Astros lose this series than sweep it?


Because it's baseball and losing 1-2 is more likely in general than going 3-0. Plus Oakland has been playing decent baseball for an extended stretch.
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Beau Holder
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In reply to Marvin • 1:21p, 9/10/24
AG
Long as they win tonight since it's the one I've got a ticket to.
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scrimp
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1:27p, 9/10/24
AG
Chas- since he's been back (6 games) is .409/.435/.455. Hopefully he can continue being productive.



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bearkatag15
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:35p, 9/10/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Marvin said:
Just realized Oakland is in town. Why do I feel like the odds are better that the Astros lose this series than sweep it?


Because it's baseball and losing 1-2 is more likely in general than going 3-0. Plus Oakland has been playing decent baseball for an extended stretch.


Bido has been pretty good all season and the A's have hit Spaghetti pretty good in 3 starts this season:

16 IP
17 H
9 Runs
15 Ks
6 BB
3 Ls

I won't be surprised if we drop the game tonight.
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
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Farmer1906
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In reply to bearkatag15 • 1:41p, 9/10/24
AG
bearkatag15 said:
Farmer1906 said:
Marvin said:
Just realized Oakland is in town. Why do I feel like the odds are better that the Astros lose this series than sweep it?


Because it's baseball and losing 1-2 is more likely in general than going 3-0. Plus Oakland has been playing decent baseball for an extended stretch.


Bido has been pretty good all season and the A's have hit Spaghetti pretty good in 3 starts this season:

16 IP
17 H
9 Runs
15 Ks
6 BB
3 Ls

I won't be surprised if we drop the game tonight.
A's are 32-26 since July 1. That is an 89-win pace over a 1/3 of a season sample. 117 wRC+ (3rd in baseball) over the same window. Their offense and back end of the bullpen is legit.



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Faustus
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:00p, 9/10/24
Farmer1906 said:
bearkatag15 said:
Farmer1906 said:
Marvin said:
Just realized Oakland is in town. Why do I feel like the odds are better that the Astros lose this series than sweep it?


Because it's baseball and losing 1-2 is more likely in general than going 3-0. Plus Oakland has been playing decent baseball for an extended stretch.


Bido has been pretty good all season and the A's have hit Spaghetti pretty good in 3 starts this season:

16 IP
17 H
9 Runs
15 Ks
6 BB
3 Ls

I won't be surprised if we drop the game tonight.
A's are 32-26 since July 1. That is an 89-win pace over a 1/3 of a season sample. 117 wRC+ (3rd in baseball) over the same window. Their offense and back end of the bullpen is legit.
We are built to negate their bullpen strength by keeping the starting pitcher's pitch count low.
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heavens11
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2:13p, 9/10/24
AG
Yeah for Strategy
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Mr President Elect
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In reply to scrimp • 2:16p, 9/10/24
AG
scrimp said:
Chas- since he's been back (6 games) is .409/.435/.455. Hopefully he can continue being productive.



I called for him to start showing out a few weeks ago when it looked like he was more willing to go the other way, but that resulted in a few warning track shots and so I wasn't sure if he lost power... glad to see it starting to yield results. Although, I would like to still see him get a few out.
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The Porkchop Express
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2:37p, 9/10/24
AG
Time for a bit of name calling and a long overdue Astros' Bingo update.

jkag89 has received a point for the White Sox making it to 110 wins.
Myself and txags92 still have a shot to pick up a point if the White Sox lose 121+

The only others categories still in doubt as we approach the end of the season are:

  • Does Trey Cabbage film a HEB commercial?
  • Does Adolis Garcia get busted for roids?
  • Do Chaz and Yainer combine for <30 home runs? (Currently they have 21 together so likely).
  • Does Grae Kessinger get a hit in 2024? (Currently 0 for 15 and in AAA)
  • Do the Astros get swept by the A's in a series? (God, I hope not)
  • Do Marcus Semien and Kyle Seager come out as a gay couple?

It appears that KAF, with 7 bingo points is going to win this thing.

But I would be remiss if we didn't call out some terrible decisions made in April or May or whenever this started.

Red AG 98 and KAF both picked the Aggies to beat Notre Dame on their bingo card.

RED AG 98 and txags92 both picked that the Astros would be eliminated from the playoffs by September 15.

Everyone is disappointed in all of you.
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txags92
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In reply to The Porkchop Express • 2:40p, 9/10/24
AG
The Porkchop Express said:
Time for a bit of name calling and a long overdue Astros' Bingo update.

jkag89 has received a point for the White Sox making it to 110 wins.
Myself and txags92 still have a shot to pick up a point if the White Sox lose 121+

The only others categories still in doubt as we approach the end of the season are:

  • Does Trey Cabbage film a HEB commercial?
  • Does Adolis Garcia get busted for roids?
  • Do Chaz and Yainer combine for <30 home runs? (Currently they have 21 together so likely).
  • Does Grae Kessinger get a hit in 2024? (Currently 0 for 15 and in AAA)
  • Do the Astros get swept by the A's in a series? (God, I hope not)
  • Do Marcus Semien and Kyle Seager come out as a gay couple?

It appears that KAF, with 7 bingo points is going to win this thing.

But I would be remiss if we didn't call out some terrible decisions made in April or May or whenever this started.

Red AG 98 and KAF both picked the Aggies to beat Notre Dame on their bingo card.

RED AG 98 and txags92 both picked that the Astros would be eliminated from the playoffs by September 15.

Everyone is disappointed in all of you.
My message board jinx worked perfectly. I also picked Bregman dropping below .180 and that worked perfectly to get him to go on a tear.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Mr President Elect • 2:43p, 9/10/24
AG
Mr President Elect said:
scrimp said:
Chas- since he's been back (6 games) is .409/.435/.455. Hopefully he can continue being productive.



I called for him to start showing out a few weeks ago when it looked like he was more willing to go the other way, but that resulted in a few warning track shots and so I wasn't sure if he lost power... glad to see it starting to yield results. Although, I would like to still see him get a few out.
Over the last 7 games

93.4 EV
18.6 LA
42.9% HH%
--
1.067 OPS
207 wRC+
--
8.3% K%

Not too shabby. Hopefully, he can build on it. A Sep/Oct Chas redemption arc would feel real nice.
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mwm
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In reply to Marvin • 3:01p, 9/10/24
"kids"
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EastCoastAgNc
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3:02p, 9/10/24
AG
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3B Paul 97
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 3:05p, 9/10/24
AG
Might be the closest we get to a lineup of death.
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MosesHallRAB04
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 3:14p, 9/10/24
AG
Wonder how much longer until we see tuck in RF
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to MosesHallRAB04 • 3:16p, 9/10/24
AG
MosesHallRAB04 said:
Wonder how much longer until we see tuck in RF
You miss the lollygagging that much?
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bearkatag15
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 3:28p, 9/10/24
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:
MosesHallRAB04 said:
Wonder how much longer until we see tuck in RF
You miss the lollygagging that much?


I miss gold glove defense
Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
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EastCoastAgNc
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3:31p, 9/10/24
AG
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_veeyah_
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3:38p, 9/10/24
AG
Are they gonna keep Yordan batting 2nd? Why the move for Breggy to 4th? Is it the elbow thing right??
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