I know it is still early, but will the Dodgers be better in 2024?
They've made a huge splash signing the best hitter (Ohtani) and one of the best SP (Yamamoto). I don't know where Yamamoto ranks, but he projects... and based on money... is likely the most expensive FA SP signing. There was some speculation that Yamamoto and Ohtani would end up together.
So what. I don't think they'll be much better, if better at all.
Let's start with SP:
Losses: Kershaw, Urias, and Syndergaard (not much of a contributo)
Gains: Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Ohtani
You could argue Glasnow is a poor man's Kershaw. Ohtani will pitch in 2024 less than Syndergaard did in 2023. Likely the same with 2025.
To the numbers:
The Dodgers' rotation projection at the end of the season:
B. Miller (24): 22GS, 3.76 ERA, 124.1 IP, 119 SO <- extent of MLB
M Grove (26): 12GS, 18G, 6.13 ERA, 69.0 IP, 73 SO <-29.1IP/4.60ERA in '22
R Pepiot (25): 3GS, 8G, 2.14 ERA, 42 IP, 38 SO <-36.1/3.47 in '22 (Traded to TB for Glasnow)
Sheehan (23): 11GS, 4.92 ERA, 60.1 IP, 64 SO <- extent of MLB
G. Stone (24): 4GS, 8G, 9.00 ERA, 31.0 IP, 22 SO <- extent of MLB
Hopefuls:
Gonsolin (29): 20GS, 4.98 ERA, 103 IP, 82 SO < TJ in Aug '23
Dust May (25): 9GS, 2.63 ERA, 48.0 IP, 34 SO <- TJ in July '23
Buehler: <- Likely 60IL to start season
The Dodgers' rotation projection now:
B. Miller (24): 22GS, 3.76 ERA, 124.1 IP, 119 SO <- extent of MLB
Glasnow (29): 21GS, 3.53 ERA, 120.0 IP, 162 SO <- Most IP in a season.
Yamamoto (24): 24GS, 1.16ERA, 171.0 IP, 176 SO <- Japan
Injured players (among others):
Buehler (28): 12GS, 4.02 ERA, 65.0 IP <- 2022. TJ recovery in 2023.
Ohtani (28): 23 GS, 3.14 ERA, 132.0 IP
Battling for 5th:
M Grove (26): 12GS, 18G, 6.13 ERA, 69.0 IP, 73 SO <-29.1IP/4.60ERA in '22
Sheehan (23): 11GS, 4.92 ERA, 60.1 IP, 64 SO <- extent of MLB
Yarborough (31): 2GS, 11G, 4.89 ERA <- Often mentioned as a potential rotation piece, but I think a RP.
Summary:
Dodgers' rotation is better in 2024 than it was projected had they done nothing. Year-over-year... I'm not sure the Dodgers are much better than 2023. Glasnow is their veteran and a bunch of unproven MLB talent around him. Yamamoto may be great, who knows?! Dodgers will likely be in the playoffs for quite some time, but they will still need to figure out some pieces.
They're 2023 CBT was: $267M
They're 2024 CBT is : $288M <- Does not inclued the $24M savings from Ohtani deferment
The Dodgers' issue last season was the rotation. They went into the playoffs with Kershaw gimpy with his Velo 3-5mph slower, a rookie, and Lance Lynn. They had massive injuries to their rotation. I don't know that with all the money they spent, that they fixed that issue. Glasnow is no more reliable than Kershaw.
2023 Playoffs:
G1 - Kershaw: 0.1 IP, 6 ERs
G2 - Miller: 1.2 IP, 3 ERs
G2 - Lynn: 2.2 IP, 3 ERs
They've made a huge splash signing the best hitter (Ohtani) and one of the best SP (Yamamoto). I don't know where Yamamoto ranks, but he projects... and based on money... is likely the most expensive FA SP signing. There was some speculation that Yamamoto and Ohtani would end up together.
So what. I don't think they'll be much better, if better at all.
Let's start with SP:
Losses: Kershaw, Urias, and Syndergaard (not much of a contributo)
Gains: Glasnow, Yamamoto, and Ohtani
You could argue Glasnow is a poor man's Kershaw. Ohtani will pitch in 2024 less than Syndergaard did in 2023. Likely the same with 2025.
To the numbers:
The Dodgers' rotation projection at the end of the season:
B. Miller (24): 22GS, 3.76 ERA, 124.1 IP, 119 SO <- extent of MLB
M Grove (26): 12GS, 18G, 6.13 ERA, 69.0 IP, 73 SO <-29.1IP/4.60ERA in '22
R Pepiot (25): 3GS, 8G, 2.14 ERA, 42 IP, 38 SO <-36.1/3.47 in '22 (Traded to TB for Glasnow)
Sheehan (23): 11GS, 4.92 ERA, 60.1 IP, 64 SO <- extent of MLB
G. Stone (24): 4GS, 8G, 9.00 ERA, 31.0 IP, 22 SO <- extent of MLB
Hopefuls:
Gonsolin (29): 20GS, 4.98 ERA, 103 IP, 82 SO < TJ in Aug '23
Dust May (25): 9GS, 2.63 ERA, 48.0 IP, 34 SO <- TJ in July '23
Buehler: <- Likely 60IL to start season
The Dodgers' rotation projection now:
B. Miller (24): 22GS, 3.76 ERA, 124.1 IP, 119 SO <- extent of MLB
Glasnow (29): 21GS, 3.53 ERA, 120.0 IP, 162 SO <- Most IP in a season.
Yamamoto (24): 24GS, 1.16ERA, 171.0 IP, 176 SO <- Japan
Injured players (among others):
Buehler (28): 12GS, 4.02 ERA, 65.0 IP <- 2022. TJ recovery in 2023.
Ohtani (28): 23 GS, 3.14 ERA, 132.0 IP
Battling for 5th:
M Grove (26): 12GS, 18G, 6.13 ERA, 69.0 IP, 73 SO <-29.1IP/4.60ERA in '22
Sheehan (23): 11GS, 4.92 ERA, 60.1 IP, 64 SO <- extent of MLB
Yarborough (31): 2GS, 11G, 4.89 ERA <- Often mentioned as a potential rotation piece, but I think a RP.
Summary:
Dodgers' rotation is better in 2024 than it was projected had they done nothing. Year-over-year... I'm not sure the Dodgers are much better than 2023. Glasnow is their veteran and a bunch of unproven MLB talent around him. Yamamoto may be great, who knows?! Dodgers will likely be in the playoffs for quite some time, but they will still need to figure out some pieces.
They're 2023 CBT was: $267M
They're 2024 CBT is : $288M <- Does not inclued the $24M savings from Ohtani deferment
The Dodgers' issue last season was the rotation. They went into the playoffs with Kershaw gimpy with his Velo 3-5mph slower, a rookie, and Lance Lynn. They had massive injuries to their rotation. I don't know that with all the money they spent, that they fixed that issue. Glasnow is no more reliable than Kershaw.
2023 Playoffs:
G1 - Kershaw: 0.1 IP, 6 ERs
G2 - Miller: 1.2 IP, 3 ERs
G2 - Lynn: 2.2 IP, 3 ERs