I was fortunate to go to the ASG and home run derby in Miami a few years ago. I highly recommend going to the home run derby. I'll never forget the electricity in that stadium from judge hitting those bombs. If you have the opportunity to go I would go.

I went to the Derby in '95. Back then it was held in late afternoon and then shown on TV later. There was on old timers game, then BP, then the derby. Mike Piazza hit a ball during BP that one hopped the office buildings in LCF. It's the longest ball I've ever seen hit.

Also, you're not going to believe this but, an afternoon event in July in Arlington was brutal.

Evan Grant has posted the following.

Rangers column: So, when's the Jordan Montgomery press conference? Funny you should ask ... https://t.co/7ERV5qP5A0

— Evan Grant (@Evan_P_Grant) January 30, 2024

What's it say?

Nothing new in the article. It's an op-ed. Monty wants to pitch here but details are fuzzy and incomplete.

Dead deal or still working? Grant has been pessimistic on his return.

I think it's all going to come down to what happens with Bally and when.

He did not cast an opinion one way or another in this one.

Rangers are over the tax threshold regardless with Monty. Signing him impacts tax considerations for several years in the future.

I just don't know... I mentioned and still believe it could be about years. Originally, it was announced that 2025 Rights would be given up by DSG/Ballys'. With the Amazon lifeline, I wonder if 2025 is still in question. If it remains with DSG/Ballys+Amazon and we only get a reduced %, that could screw us. It just creates so much long-term uncertainty.

It was posted that the Rangers might be looking at Brandon Belt who is likely a $10M+ guy. We might get him for a 1yr deal... probably what we are looking for to replace Garver and fill DH.

But, Offense isn't a huge need, IMO.

Maybe it would signal Langford to AAA to start the season. We just signed Jankowski... again a Util OF role, but did we really need another OF? Carter-Leodys-Garcia + Langford/Duran/Foscue? Sam Huff is another Util guy on the 40.

I think Mahle ($5.5M, $16.5M) is the only guy we signed for more than 1 yr.
Robertson gets $5.0M+$1.5M BO for 2025.

Overall from a 2024 Cashflow, Mahle+Roberston add $11.5M. However, for CBT, they combine for $22.5M

I can see from a Cashflow what the Rangers are doing.
From a CBT perspective, we're going to be in the Tax.

Payroll: $223M ('24), $132M ('25), $97M ('26)
CBT: $243M ('24), $100M ('25), $116M ('26)

Having said all that, Belt, Mahle, et al, could be good mid-season trade chips that could drop us below the CBT.

Start with Belt on Opening Day roster. Say Carter and Jung do well, Bring up Langford and give him some GS and if he does well, we could trade Belt.

Midseason if Scherzer, deGrom, and Mahle don't have any setbacks and begin to perform well... suddenly we can trade off Mahle, Heaney, others

twilly said:

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He did not cast an opinion one way or another in this one.

Rangers are over the tax threshold regardless with Monty. Signing him impacts tax considerations for several years in the future.

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Yes and No.

As of now, the Rangers projected Tax impact, according to COTS for 2024 is about $1.7M.

That could be part of the way Mahle and Robertson are structured. Did they get a lower payout in 2024 in order to pay the CBT within the 2024 Cashflow?! Or was it just a way to back-load the contract, in general.

I posted what is commited to CBT above. It doesn't include Arbs and Servs.
Coming off the CBT for 2025 would be:
Scherzer: $12.5M
Heaney: $12.5M
Leclerc: $6.25M
Yates: $4.5M
Jankowski: $1.5M

Options:
Eovaldi ($20M vesting option. Needs 156 IP in 2024 to vest)
Robertson ($5M? vesting option)

More comes off after 2025, so Monty would impact the overall number, it could right itself as players leave over time.

Our rotation in 2025 (as posted above): Gray, Dunning, Bradford, Mahle, deGrom, Eovaldi (option)
That could be a pretty wicked rotation in 2025 if healthy. Add Monty to that and we're talking trading people, IMO. If Bradford can anchor the #5 spot in 2024, he is a cheap player for '25, '26, and '27.

I had assumed that Mahle's 2024 was lower because he was coming off of TJ and it was known in advance that he would miss at least half the season... thus a lower salary for 2024.

And I don't really understand adding Belt. We can fill that internally for a lot less money. We can always add a bat later in the season if for some reason things don't work out, injuries, etc.

I hope the Belt possibility doesn't signal that we may be out on Montgomery. We need to use whatever dollars it takes to get Belt and allocate them to Montgomery (IMO of course ).

Sure... we're only getting half the year, per se... but at the end of the day, his CBT impact is ACV, which means $11M hits the 2024 CBT.

Usually don't like copying from an article directly, but I don't feel like editing this right now…

(From DMN Website). Well, let's also account for the other hand: The competitive balance tax (CBT). If there is one thing that galls owners more than paying real players market rates, it's paying tax, too. They paid a tax last year. They will pay one again this year. And if the Rangers sign Montgomery, they are going to pay a tax on a tax.

The Robertson and Jankowski deals push the Rangers' payroll for CBT purposes to more than $240 million. The figure also includes accounting for Adolis Garca's salary, whether it ends up at the $5 million offered by the team, the $6.9 million proposed by Garca or something in between. The CBT threshold is $237 million for 2024. Either way, the Rangers are going to pay the tax.

Again.

Which means their tax bracket is going up. As a first-time tax-payer last year, they paid 20% on their overage, which came out to about $2 million. The tax works on what amounts to a three-year cycle, and it gets heavier with each year. This year, they will pay 30% on their overage, but only on the first $20 million by which they exceed the threshold. Go higher than that and there is a surtax. It goes up by another 12.5% to 42.5% with an overage between $20-40 million. Go more than $40 million above: It's 75%. And your top draft pick gets moved back 10 spots. Don't ask what happens at $60 million.

It also means the Rangers would be in position to have to pay a minimum of 50% tax on anything above $241 million (next year's threshold) in 2025. The tax rates would remain at 50% or higher until such time the Rangers brought their payroll under the threshold.

Yep.

There is the CBT, and Luxury Tax added. It only resets once you are below.

An additional penalty is the loss in Comp for FAs who leave with QOs.

Not sure if LAAA was able to officially get under for 2023, but if they didn't, comp for Ohtani leaving with a QO goes from a 2nd Rd to a 4th Rd.

So, if say Scherzer, Heaney, or Eovaldi leave after 2024 with a QO, we'd get a 4th Rd comp instead of a 2nd Rd.

What's the plan for next year when we need some good starting pitching? Who are the predicted 1-2 arms in the minors we expect to be on the 25 roster?

Corey Seager underwent surgery today for a left sports hernia repair, GM Chris Young said.

Seager is expected to miss the majority of spring training but will “hopefully” be ready for Opening Day.

— Shawn McFarland (@McFarland_Shawn) January 30, 2024

Water Boy said:

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What's the plan for next year when we need some good starting pitching? Who are the predicted 1-2 arms in the minors we expect to be on the 25 roster?

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From above...

Quote:

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Our rotation in 2025 (as posted above): Gray, Dunning, Bradford, Mahle, deGrom, Eovaldi (option)

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We need Bradford to establish himself and we'll be well positioned.

Insane we made the post season and won the WS with a historically bad bullpen, Seager missing a good chunk of games, Garcia injury, deGrom injury, and Eovaldi injury. This team fully healthy is up there with LA and Atlanta.

KT 90 said:

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And I don't really understand adding Belt. We can fill that internally for a lot less money. We can always add a bat later in the season if for some reason things don't work out, injuries, etc.

I hope the Belt possibility doesn't signal that we may be out on Montgomery. We need to use whatever dollars it takes to get Belt and allocate them to Montgomery (IMO of course ).

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Seems like Belt is a character guy and he's got 2 titles with Bochy. I'll always like productive guys with character.

Ever watch his outdoors show? It's not awful . . .

South Platte said:

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KT 90 said:

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And I don't really understand adding Belt. We can fill that internally for a lot less money. We can always add a bat later in the season if for some reason things don't work out, injuries, etc.

I hope the Belt possibility doesn't signal that we may be out on Montgomery. We need to use whatever dollars it takes to get Belt and allocate them to Montgomery (IMO of course ).

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Seems like Belt is a character guy and he's got 2 titles with Bochy. I'll always like productive guys with character.

Ever watch his outdoors show? It's not awful . . .

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I have not.... but I guess I would have to get past him being a former Longhorn and give it a try to see if it is any good

This is a familiar topic. Had surgery for a sports hernia in early December. Similar deal where it became an issue around July and the doc wanted to see if it would heal on its own. Just hit golf balls for the first time this past weekend, no pain, and plan to hit the course this weekend. Since I'm an old-timer pushing 50, Seager will surely be ready to roll

Water Boy said:

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What's the plan for next year when we need some good starting pitching? Who are the predicted 1-2 arms in the minors we expect to be on the 25 roster?

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To the 2nd part of your question... here was what I had posted on the previous page:

Quote:

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Below are the replacement options:
White (24-MLB) #8
Leiter (23-AAA-2024) #5
Rocker (24-A+-2025) #9
Stephan (22-AA-2025) #15
Porter (20-A-2026) #4
Curry (21-A+-2026) #16
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Winn (24-MLB)#28
Teodo (22-A+-2025) #22
Bratt (20-A+-2025) #17
Corniell (20-MLB-2026) #23

We have 3 SPs on the 40. If Bradford can establish himself as a SP in 2024, he'll be 5+ years in the rotation or a trade option.

We have 5 more SPs that should reach MLB by 2025. All of that drafting will hopefully transition to developed young, controllable SPs.

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I could see our AAA rotation:
White (24-MLB) #8: 24GS, 4.22 ERA (AA/AAA)
Winn (24-MLB) #28 : 13GS, 7.22 (AAA)
Leiter (23-AAA-2024) #5: 20GS, 5.19 ERA (AA/AAA)
Acker (24-AA) : 18GS, 2.54 ERA (A+/AA)

We need one from above to land for 2025. I'd like to see each get some GS in 2024 like Bradford got and see what we get. Bradford plus one of these are your 2. even if two #5s would be fine by me.

Our possible AA rotation:
Stephan (22-AA-2025) #15: 12GS, 2.30 ERA (A+/AA)
Teodo (22-A+-2025) #22: 14GS, 4.52 (A+)
Bratt (20-A+-2025) #17: 16GS, 3.54 (A+)
Corniell (20-MLB-2026) #23: 17GS, 2.75 (A/A+)

And A+
Rocker (24-A+-2025) #9 <-Likely rehab/recovery and then maybe bullpen guy?
Porter (20-A-2026) #4: 21GS, 2.47 (A)
Curry (21-A+-2026) #16: 17GS, 2.92 ERA (A/A+)

Good stuff. All we need is one of those guys to step up. We can't afford to spend money of FA pitchers every year.

Maybe it could be a good thing or blessing in disguise. I know all ranger fans have been disappointed with Smith's bat. Give him the extra at bats and see if he improves.

Grapesoda2525 said:

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Maybe it could be a good thing or blessing in disguise. I know all ranger fans have been disappointed with Smith's bat. Give him the extra at bats and see if he improves.

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We can hope, but I think he will always be more of a utility guy/glove guy than a hitter. But now that we now Seager will be out for a bit, and maybe a DH for a while after he returns, I am glad we Duran and Smith on the team.

KT 90 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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Maybe it could be a good thing or blessing in disguise. I know all ranger fans have been disappointed with Smith's bat. Give him the extra at bats and see if he improves.

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We can hope, but I think he will always be more of a utility guy/glove guy than a hitter. But now that we now Seager will be out for a bit, and maybe a DH for a while after he returns, I am glad we Duran and Smith on the team.

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Never expecting him to hit like Seager or Semien, but cutting down on the strike outs would be nice.

KT 90 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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KT 90 said:

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Grapesoda2525 said:

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Maybe it could be a good thing or blessing in disguise. I know all ranger fans have been disappointed with Smith's bat. Give him the extra at bats and see if he improves.

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We can hope, but I think he will always be more of a utility guy/glove guy than a hitter. But now that we now Seager will be out for a bit, and maybe a DH for a while after he returns, I am glad we Duran and Smith on the team.

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Never expecting him to hit like Seager or Semien, but cutting down on the strike outs would be nice.

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100% agree. If you aren't much of a hitter, at least put it in play more and use your speed.

*just looked it up, last year he had 55 K's in 195 AB's.

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The difference right there is a big reason why I like Jankowski and don't like smith.

When Jankowski gets ahead in the count, he often uses it to his advantage and can get a hit or work a walk

When smith gets ahead, he tries too hard to "make the pitcher pay" by taking big cuts at pitches that he assumes will be good but aren't or he can't even finish it off by working the walk.

Smith needs to get better at finishing off at bats or just being competitive in more of them.

How the hell did we win a WS?!

We have 16 position players on the 40. You get 13 on the 26.

Projected 2024 Lineup
1. 2B - Semien (32-R): 162G, .276, 29 HR, 14 SB, .348 OBP, .826 OPS, 110 SO
2. SS - Duran (24-R): 122G, .276, 14 HR, 8 SB, .324 OBP, .768 OPS, 120 SO
3. LF - Carter (20-L): 23G, .306, 5 HR, 3 SB, .413 OBP, 1.058 OPS, 24 SO
4. RF - Adolis (30-R): 148G, .245, 39 HR, 9 SB, .328 OBP, .836 OPS, 175 SO
5. 3B - Jung (25-R): 122G, .266, 23 HR, 1 SB, .315 OBP, .781 OPS, 151 SO
6. 1B - Lowe (27-L): 161G, .262, 17 HR, 1 SB, .360 OBP, .775 OPS, 165 SO
7. CF - Taveras (24-S): 143G, .266, 14 HR, 14 SB, .312 OBP, .733 OPS, 117 SO
8. DH -
9. C - Heim (28-S): 131G, .258, 18 HR, 2 SB, .317 OBP, .755 OPS, 96 SO

4th OF - Jankowski (32-L): 107G, .263, 1 HR, 19 SB, .357 OBP, .689 OPS, 42 SO
BU Catcher - Knizner (28-R)

Seager


Pick 2. 3 of Seager is on the IL:
Smith (25-L) : 163G, 408 AB, .191
Huff (25-R) : 75G, 195 AB, .262
Ornelas (23-R) : 8G, 7 AB, .143

Foscue (24-R) : 0G
Harris (23-L) : 0G