TheNotoriousP.I.P. said:

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I have a feeling the Dodgers are about to turn around and use the money saved from Ohtani's contract structure on Yamamoto or Monty.

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That will certainly happen.

But, IMO, they will make a trade for a SP, first. They likely trade 2 P currently on their 40, that get back Cease, or Glasnow. Less likely Glasnow because the LAD are already dealing with health issues in their P. Including a 2nd P will open the spot they need for a FA signing.

From an earlier post of mine:

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The Dodgers' rotation projection now:
B. Miller (24): 22GS, 3.76 ERA, 124.1 IP, 119 SO <- extent of MLB
M Grove (26): 12GS, 18G, 6.13 ERA, 69.0 IP, 73 SO <-29.1IP/4.60ERA in '22
R Pepiot (25): 3GS, 8G, 2.14 ERA, 42 IP, 38 SO <-36.1/3.47 in '22
Sheehan (23): 11GS, 4.92 ERA, 60.1 IP, 64 SO <- extent of MLB
G. Stone (24): 4GS, 8G, 9.00 ERA, 31.0 IP, 22 SO <- extent of MLB

Gonsolin (29): 20GS, 4.98 ERA, 103 IP, 82 SO < TJ in Aug '23
Dust May (25): 9GS, 2.63 ERA, 48.0 IP, 34 SO <- TJ in July '23
Buehler: <- Likely 60IL to start season

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Treinen, Almonte, Hudson are RPs that finished 2023 on the IL, as well.

They have 23 P on their 40. Gonsolin, May, and Buehler all likely go to the 60IL, and Treinen, Almonte, and Hudson were on the IL to end 2023, and are unknowns for 2024.

The talent ceiling, IMO, is too high for many of those prospects and IL guys to just be released.

It would be nice to know something, literally anything that is going on with the tv situation. Still think that has a huge impact on all of this.

I think Monty would have already signed a deal with the Rangers if the tv money was figured out.

DallasAg 94 said:

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Mr Gigem said:

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Honestly that is such BS. But good for LA or whatever

He wanted to be in LA so bad. Why play games with all these other teams that were interested l?

Seems like it's just setting the stage for someone to create a super team.

Let's see if Monty, Hader, et al want 2MM/yr, and then we'll figure out the rest later

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He used the other teams.

Some are speculating that the DodgerNation guy who reported Ohtani was flying to Toronto, was a setup that got the LAD to panic that Ohtani was going to Toronto to sign and the LAD upped their offer by like $100M, as a result.

Morosi realized he got used for more money.

We'll see how this all plays out. What will be funny is if after all that and deferring all that money, if the CBT ends up being $70M and the Dodgers either blow out the Tax or don't fund the SP they'll need.

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These stories almost always end up being bull***** Giants just went on record that they basically offered the same amount to Ohtani.

Whenever there's many suitors on marquee talent like this you always see some teams posturing. Giants may or may not have offered $700m, but they tell their fans that and then they don't look like cheapskates.

Or back in the A-Rod era, you had teams saying that Texas outbid the next closest team by $100m and were actually just bidding against themselves. Complete bull**** for anyone that knew baseball, but it made the common fans for a lot of teams that missed out feel like their team was being wise, not cheap.

We'll never know the truth. SFG said they offered something structured like what the LAD gave him and "similar" numbers. We don't know what that means.

We know that Ohtani's agent was shopping the same structure to everyone, so the question became what were the terms and numbers.

We do know that if the LAD had offered Ohtani's agent what he wanted, we wouldn't have gone through this dog and pony show. More than likely, the LAD wanted to be able to match any other offer.

We all knew LAD was where he wanted to land.

What I didn't know was that Freeman and Betts are doing the same thing.


https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/sports/mlb/explaining-shohei-ohtanis-dodgers-contract-breaking-down-deferred-money-in-mlb/3289535/

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The Dodgers have used deferrals to sign their two biggest stars before Ohtani. Mookie Betts will earn $120 million in deferred money from 2033 to 2044 after his contract expires, while Freddie Freeman is set to receive $57 million from 2028 to 2040.

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So, that's $10M/yr for Betts and what $4M for Freeman. Add Ohtani's $68M, so $82M/yr from '34 to '43.

Amen to that.

I think the Yankees are probably the tracking horse in the AL. I just don't think they'll perform on the field like they look on paper.

I'm sure you saw the latest rendition of "Best Trio" which puts the Rangers (Semien, Seager, and Garcia) like 6th or 7th behind the Yankees (Torress, Soto, Judge) at 4. Don't care... got the WS.

Also, looks like Soto isn't interested in extending, but likely to hit FA. He wants some of that Deferred Comp, I'm sure.

I have to say, I'm fascinated that so much band width and headspace is being taken up on this thread by a player that we A) didn't sign and B) don't have to really concern ourselves with anymore until the WS.

The economics of his deal/contract don't matter to me one bit. He signed with the Dodgers, which is where quite a few of us predicted he would wind up back in midseason. That's where he always wanted to go, the rest of it was just posturing and negotiation.

I'm more focused on, and interested in, discussing players we might sign (or the more likely scenario, trade for) than dissecting the nuances of a signing we didn't make, and were never going to make. Just seems like it's a discussion more appropriate for the general baseball thread than a Texas Rangers specific thread.

But that's just me, carry on.

Agreed. I think MLB is going to step in (probably only a matter of time here) and put a cap or ban deferred money. Just seems a way of cheating the system for every player that can make as much as some of these guys in their promotional side deals

Fuzzy Dunlop said:

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rbtexan said:

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I have to say, I'm fascinated that so much band width and headspace is being taken up on this thread by a player that we A) didn't sign and B) don't have to really concern ourselves with anymore until the WS.

The economics of his deal/contract don't matter to me one bit. He signed with the Dodgers, which is where quite a few of us predicted he would wind up back in midseason. That's where he always wanted to go, the rest of it was just posturing and negotiation.

I'm more focused on, and interested in, discussing players we might sign (or the more likely scenario, trade for) than dissecting the nuances of a signing we didn't make, and were never going to make. Just seems like it's a discussion more appropriate for the general baseball thread than a Texas Rangers specific thread.

But that's just me, carry on.

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I understand what you're saying here but the Ohtani deal affects every team in the league. It is now apparent that LA has been structuring deals this way for a while. It can have ramifications for the league later down the road and I think that is why people are talling about it. Also, knowing what we know now, Ohtani was more affordable for most teams than they thought. I think fan bases are worried that one team will attempt this to build a super team and go on a long run.

I don't like the way the Dodgers skirted the CBT rules but it is apparently legal by the terms of the agreement. I'm not sure it is smart for the Dodgers to mortgage their future like this but it's not my money so what do I know.

Also, our team hasn't made any interesting moves yet so we don't really have much else to discuss that hasn't already been discussed. Welcome to the off season. Have you been to Lucci's board? Same stuff, different sport.

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I also don't even really think that this is even really "gaming" the CBT. I'd be shocked if the Dodgers don't have to fund the liability in some way, which means it doesn't really help with cash flow (not that anyone expects that to be a problem). If there's any "gaming", it's essentially boring stuff like the Dodgers thinking they can earn 6-7% on assets being charged at 5%, allowing them to pay $40M per year for a contract valued at $45M per year. What that really says is the teams though Shohei was worth 400/10, he thought 450/10, and this let both sides be happy.

Side note, I would in valuing pension obligations. Based on the type of assets (largely conservative) assets we use to fund transactions, Shohei's "$700 million!" contract has a present value of around $295-305M

What I read last night is that they have to fully fund an escrow account two years after the money is earned. So, in two years they'll fund an account with $44MM and do that each year for the next ten years. This allows then to make their money, earn some interest, and then put the base amount into escrow.

I saw a click bait headline that claimed Toronto "matched" the LAD offer. Didn't read the article nor am I inclined to attempt to find it, but it seems like his target was always LAD and all the rest of it was all about maximizing the final amount of the shakedown.

Very glad the Rangers walked when they did.

I don't think the mlb should do a thing about Ohtani's contract. What's the point? When will a situation ever come up like this again? Plus the cap hit of the contract is still 46 million which is big. I would understand the complaints if the cap hit was only 2 million.

LAD will now move to SP. Including Monty.

If the goal is the WS, then what the NL does is relevant. If your goal is the AL Pennant, then disregard what the LAD and other NL teams do.

IMO, understanding the CBT, the CBA, and other global MLB rules should be important to anyone interested in more than just watching the product on the field.

bmac_aggie18 said:

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Agreed. I think MLB is going to step in (probably only a matter of time here) and put a cap or ban deferred money. Just seems a way of cheating the system for every player that can make as much as some of these guys in their promotional side deals

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It will likely be discussed in the next CBA. '26?

It isn't skirted, it was specifically addresses and allows for what was done. Deferred Comp as it pertains to Cash-Flow should be allowed, but ALL of it should have some level of tie to either the CBT and/or Roster spots.

If a player has deferred comp, they should be allowed to be paid outside the playing window, but applied on CBT. Or, those years, that player should be counted on the 40. So, under that scenario with Ohtani, he should count on the 40, for 20 years.

aggietony2010 said:

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Side note, I would in valuing pension obligations. Based on the type of assets (largely conservative) assets we use to fund transactions, Shohei's "$700 million!" contract has a present value of around $295-305M

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That's where I think it gets interesting. This is about perception. His $680M is interest free. So, PV is the better measure. It is like winning a Lottery and getting annual payments. Invest your $300M and use it to pay the $680. The other thing is, $68M in 2042 (18 years from now) will be worth far less than $68 is worth today.

Winning today also allows the Dodgers to increase the Valuation of the team.

DallasAg 94 said:

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aggietony2010 said:

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Side note, I would in valuing pension obligations. Based on the type of assets (largely conservative) assets we use to fund transactions, Shohei's "$700 million!" contract has a present value of around $295-305M

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That's where I think it gets interesting. This is about perception. His $680M is interest free. So, PV is the better measure. It is like winning a Lottery and getting annual payments. Invest your $300M and use it to pay the $680. The other thing is, $68M in 2042 (18 years from now) will be worth far less than $68 is worth today.

Winning today also allows the Dodgers to increase the Valuation of the team.

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Yep, the perception is huge. If this had been reported as a 450/10 contract, and then someone discovered that as part of the terms of the contract, Shohei was going to take $2M cash and a $43 million purchase of 10-year "Dodgers Bonds" paying 5%, no one would be freaking out about it. When in reality (outside of the tax deferrals I'm not an expert in), this contract is equivalent.

DallasAg 94 said:

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The Dodgers' rotation projection now:
R Pepiot (25): 3GS, 8G, 2.14 ERA, 42 IP, 38 SO <-36.1/3.47 in '22

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Quote:

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They could include one of the projected SP in a trade for say, Cease, or Tampa's guy.

I'd be ok with anyone in that rotation as a #5... maybe #4, but jeez... not 1-5.

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Looks like Glasnow for Pepiot are in the discussions. You heard it from me (kinda) 2 days ago.

If the Dodgers give up Pepiot, it is dumb, dumb, dumb. But they have to because he is not a SP to start in the rotation for the 2024 season after a $700M purchase. And that is why Tampa always seems to have phenom SP.

And Glasnow is a Glass Pitcher. Sure, he will be great for a bit, but he won't likely last the season. And so, these are the kind of desperate moves I was hoping the Dodgers would be forced to make.

Both players the Dodgers are rumored to get Glasnow ($25M) and Margot ($10M+$2M buyout for '25) will be FAs after 2024, if the Dodgers buyout Margot. Which they will do.

Why should you care? If they get these 2, it could limit the Dodgers signing Yamamoto and/or Monty.

I'm looking at the Plumber job...

Does the Plumber get fitted for a World Series ring?

Ag Since 83 said:

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Take us higher, @Rangers!

Artifacts from the 2023 World Series are officially on display in our Autumn Glory exhibit, telling the story of their first championship in franchise history. pic.twitter.com/PU1mFpmMUc

— National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum ⚾ (@baseballhall) December 13, 2023

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Better clear off a spot right next to it for our 2024 memorabilia.

We're all still riding high from the World Series ( obviously), but I've tried to be patient in regard to the offseason. This offseason is starting to feel like a dud.

I think all fans wanted is to sign a few cheap but decent relievers, bring back garver and Monty. Not asking a lot.

Been kinda slow lately. Figured everyone could get a good laugh. Hope the link works.

Watch this reel https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1yAJgqDRhSE2D68k/?mibextid=sy1ut2

I know Ballys folding on the Rangers has been discussed plenty here…. just stunning that they can drop out of contract with the Rangers and hamstring their payroll…. meanwhile MLB will allow them to broadcast other MLB games.

It isn't just MLB allows it... the Rangers are a Franchise and entered into legal contracts with Bally's, like others.

It's like one McDonald's or Steak-N-Shake closing down while others flourish.

I think people forget that many sports teams are a Franchise.

Agree, they should have to recognize deferred salary during the years of performance. I'm kind of shocked they didn't address that before

I don't really agree here, the $700 Million number has been floated to make his agent look good and to grab eyeballs. The AAV is what's important, and essentially what Ohtani agreed to was a 10 year 460 million dollar contract. The "deferrals" mean that he's essentially agreed to keep that money gathering interest to be paid out later. (wish I had this kind of coin to drop into an interest earning status!)

The union and the league both know that the contract is really a 460 million dollar pact, which is perfectly in line with what the value of Ohtani is. It'd be one thing if the Dodgers were getting by with only paying 2 million towards the CBT, but Ohtani is still counting 46 million against it.

In fact, I'd argue the Dodgers take the biggest risk here because if inflation/interest rates slow down, then they may end regretting these deferred payments quite a bit. They're betting the 680 million they are deferring until later will be worth less than 460 million dollars in todays money.

In the end, so far as I can see, this is just Ohtani being smart with his money and having the Dodgers "invest it for him." He gets a guaranteed 240 million dollar return on this investment which is pretty good IMO. Perhaps he could get more by hiring a firm to work his money for him, but he made the call that the guaranteed return is what he wants. He'll also likely relocate out of California when these payments start coming in and hire a great tax attorney to help him decide what to do with the earnings to maximize his take even more.

Most fan anger on this topic will situate around the fact that he did this with the Dodgers who they perceive as an "Evil Empire" team like the Yankees. This is despite the fact that the Dodgers actually brought themselves back under the CBT, and outside of the Betts and Freeman deals have been extremely constrained when it comes to big money contracts recently. I wish Ohtani was somewhere else (like Texas ) but more than that, I hope he stays healthy and remains the transcendent international superstar that he is.