Ohtani would probably pay for most of himself. I'd be in favor of a 2 year 100 million dollar deal. This would be probably his only opportunity to win the triple crown as a full time DH and not being weighed down by pitching duties. Might as well do it in a rangers uniform.

Ohtani and his agent got some thinkin' to do.

He can't pitch for another year, so the $50 MM a year thing is off the table. As a DH, he's a $30 MM guy, at best.

Do you go for a lower salary with incentives? Of do you bet on yourself by signing a two or even one year deal and coming back in when you can pitch?

Miguel Cabrera made 32 million as a dh last year. I think it's safe to say Ohtani is worth more than 30 million max as a dh. I could see Ohtani pitching 2/3 years out of a 10 year contract. Either way he's getting 40 million a year minimum.

fc2112 said:

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Ohtani and his agent got some thinkin' to do.

He can't pitch for another year, so the $50 MM a year thing is off the table. As a DH, he's a $30 MM guy, at best.

Do you go for a lower salary with incentives? Of do you bet on yourself by signing a two or even one year deal and coming back in when you can pitch?

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Just like the rest of you. I definitely want him on the team, I just didn't want to give our division rival Angels a kings ransom for a half season rental. It looks like that would have been a big mistake, knowing what we know now. No guarantee we still win the WS with him and no Scherzer / Montgomery.

I look at Ohtani as a luxury. We need to sign Monty and a good closer. Ohtani would be the most exciting player and best for business but we need arms first.

Here's a fun off-season hypo that probably won't happen. Would you trade Duran and Taveras for trout and 50million of his contract paid by the angels?

Not with his injury history

Water Boy said:

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Miguel Cabrera made 32 million as a dh last year. I think it's safe to say Ohtani is worth more than 30 million max as a dh. I could see Ohtani pitching 2/3 years out of a 10 year contract. Either way he's getting 40 million a year minimum.

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To be fair... it was part of an 8yr contract he signed in 2016 when he was still playing 1B.

There are some that speculate Ohtani could take a higher per year on a shorter contract (2-3) years. That would get him his surgery year and a rehab year (2025) to show what he can do. THEN, at 32-33, he could sign his big contract and have that 2nd bite at FA.

I would not be opposed.

Personally, I think Monty or another SP is a luxury... a want and not a need. I've stated he would be an upgrade to someone penciled into the rotation right now: Heaney, Gray, Dunning.

History dictates, we will likely need a SP. It might as well be via a trade, IMO.

Dunning (28) was arguably our best SP pre-ASB in 2023. I want to see which direction he goes. If he just got tired in the 2H, he might end up being our best SP for 2024. Or, he could start hitting more bats and completely fall apart.

Bradford (25) showed some promise. Is he a viable rotation piece for 2025+?

OWhite (23) - Can he be a viable MLB P? He needs to start getting IP to see if he is a 2026 rotation piece.

The window of opportunity for this team will be dictated not on a carousel of FAs, but through internal promotion/development.

I wonder if any adjustments will be made for pitching development. Would be nice to have an ace level guy come from our farm system every once in awhile.

DallasAg 94 said:

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There are some that speculate Ohtani could take a higher per year on a shorter contract (2-3) years. That would get him his surgery year and a rehab year (2025) to show what he can do. THEN, at 32-33, he could sign his big contract and have that 2nd bite at FA.

I would not be opposed.

Personally, I think Monty or another SP is a luxury... a want and not a need. I've stated he would be an upgrade to someone penciled into the rotation right now: Heaney, Gray, Dunning.

History dictates, we will likely need a SP. It might as well be via a trade, IMO.

Dunning (28) was arguably our best SP pre-ASB in 2023. I want to see which direction he goes. If he just got tired in the 2H, he might end up being our best SP for 2024. Or, he could start hitting more bats and completely fall apart.

Bradford (25) showed some promise. Is he a viable rotation piece for 2025+?

OWhite (23) - Can he be a viable MLB P? He needs to start getting IP to see if he is a 2026 rotation piece.

The window of opportunity for this team will be dictated not on a carousel of FAs, but through internal promotion/development.

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Kershaw is available and we can probably get him this year after the dodgers just choked and we won the WS.

Kershaw had shoulder surgery and will be lucky to pitch this year at all

Glad to see CY acknowledge the area of concern. He's right in that changes will not be noticeable until a few years after. Hopefully we see those big improvements in 2025 when we'll need those younger guys to step up in the rotation.

Watching Game 5, 7th inning.

1. Thoughts on Carter being held at 3rd? I think he scores if sent

2. When Carter gets into the pickle, why didn't Garver go on to third? That's why your man is working the pickle so hard.

fc2112 said:

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Watching Game 5, 7th inning.

1. Thoughts on Carter being held at 3rd? I think he scores if sent

2. When Carter gets into the pickle, why didn't Garver go on to third? That's why your man is working the pickle so hard.

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I was so mad when Beasley didn't send him. Carter is the fastest guy on the team and force the other team to execute everything properly.

Tommy Pham got ahead 3-0 in the 8th and Sborz struck out. Sborz was a guy who I didn't want to be allowed on the team plane after a blown save in Oakland,.

hahah Heim with about 7 **** YEAHs in a row coming back into the dugout after Semien's HR

The thing to me about Kershaw is, he has the chance to pitch his career with 1 team. The LA Dodgers.

He is 98th in Total Ws by a SP with 210. He has averaged 22GS/10W for the past 3 seasons.

T-T49 would require 247 Ws.
#25 is TJ, himself at 288.
41 more Ws moves him up the list and Ws are what I'm wanting out of him.

"As a Dodger" Kershaw is likely #1 in almost every category. He is at the top of most categories.

I think he'll be a hired gun mid-2024. I think he'll join a team well positioned for the WS and if the LAD are near the top, he'll go there with a 1 yr deal.

If I'm Kershaw, I'd prefer all my games be with one team if they'll work it out and the Dodgers have seemingly been willing. If the Dodgers are out and I have a chance to join a contender, it might be worth the Ring.

If I'm the Dodgers, in 2025, I'm taking a different approach with Kershaw. If the Dodgers are ahead after 5.0 IP, I'm pulling him. If the Dodgers get behind early, I'm pulling him. I'm looking to get as many Ws as I can and limiting his IP in order that he might get more GS and more Ws. At this point in his fragility, I'm looking to raise his profile.

I think we need to ease up on the Cole Ragans stuff. So he pitches well in meaningless games. How would he have fared in Houston during the ALCS?

Cody Bradford essentially took his spot on the roster. (Sic 'em!) Here are Bradford's last 5 outings in the postseason:

1 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs
1 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs
.2 IP, 1 hit, 1 run
1.1 IP, 0 hits, 0 runs
3.2 IP, 3 hits, 0 runs

As I posted before, Bradford walked 1 batter after July 30 through the playoffs.

Evan Grant suggesting today DSG may reject Rangers TV rights for 2024. Good for the fans, but bad for the Rangers to a tune of $110 MM next season.

No suggestion of what Rangers plans would be going forward.

Who is the pink haired woman on MLBNow?

No surprise here:

Quote:

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The Rangers announced this evening that they have non-tendered right-hander Matt Bush and left-hander Brett Martin.

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From today's FWST

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On Wednesday Bally's lawyers explained their rationale in court.

"Our intention is to broadcast almost all of (our) Major League Baseball teams next year," one of Diamond's attorneys said in today's bankruptcy proceedings (relayed by The Athletic ). "There are a few, a very few, for which we do not have agreements in place. And that, frankly, at this point, are too expensive for us to broadcast without concessions. I am told that those discussions are taking place, there have been reach-outs to both of the teams involved."

"There's no deal with MLB, there's no deal with the Rangers, we don't know what (Diamond's) intention is with respect to the Rangers," said a layer for the Texas Rangers in court on Wednesday.

If Bally were to drop the Rangers the team would have the option of finding a new broadcast partner to carry their games and in the event, they couldn't in time for the 2024 season the MLB could air games as it did for the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres during the 2023 season.

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I know this is WAY tl dr... but I got to digging and wanted to offer it for anyone who was interested.

We've talked about signing Ohtani and the positives and negatives.

I think the Rangers getting their local media rights for 2024 is a game changer. If done right, I think they make more than the $111M. They could capitalize on an Ohtani signing in a way they wouldn't if the deal was already fixed and in place.

Sherrington had an article tempering the thought on the Rangers signing Ohtani. Central to the argument was the Rangers have only spent big in 2 yrs (the last 2) and they will likely go back to being cheap. Signing Ohtani would impact the Luxury Tax for a long time, but no context or supporting info was provided. I would expect that to be true, but to what extent?

The article was poorly written, IMO, and lacked any supporting information other than mentioned above.

We've thrown out some of what we think Ohtani is worth. This article puts it at: $787.7M/12 yrs. It builds in some of what I have below, but gives you an idea. That is about $65M/yr. I think if the Rangers were to capitalize, it would be at the high-end. A team like LAD/NYY, IMO, may see less uplift because they are pretty well capitalized already.

There is a down side. Costs in money, draft picks, Int'l pool money... compounded impact of exceeding LT

Let's dig into some things.
Negative:
- Loss of draft position and Int'l Pool money for signing QO. We'd lose our 2nd and 5th, plus $1M in Pool money. If we sign Hader... he'd be a multiple.

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Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year's Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest remaining picks as well.

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- Losses of draft position for Luxury Tax
I thought there was something here, but I think in my mind this had to do with losing draft position for a QO that leaves. LAAA will lose compensation position for losing Ohtani, because they are over the LT. This would impact us if we have a FA that leaves after declining a QO.

- Losses of Luxury Tax Money.

Quote:

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First year: 20 percent tax on all overages
Second consecutive year: 30 percent
Third consecutive year or more: 50 percent
If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset.

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If Ohtani gets $50M/yr assume that is all an overage. For math, we'll assume the 1st 3 years are at/below $40M. We'd pay $12M, $20M, and $20M the 1st 3 years.

With Payroll commits below, the Rangers could reset the amount, limiting the impact. This would really impact cash-flow more than overall valuation. That makes it a different argument in terms of impact.

There's also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.

This is where it can get expensive. Stay below the $40M overage.

Quote:

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$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge
$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that
$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge

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Still assuming his full amount is above the LT, now you see why I chose $40M. Another $4.8M. Let's call it $5M. (12% of $40)


Below are the Payroll threshholds for reference. What we'd want to manage. The following thresholds were put in place per the 2022-26 collective bargaining agreement. Scherzer drops off after 2024 and that is a nice chunk:

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2022: $230 million
2023: $233 million
2024: $237 million
2025: $241 million
2026: $244 million

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There is an additional penalty in terms of where your draft pick moves:

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Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

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Some of those penalties are very punitive. Those are reasons you've heard me talk about trading certain players. Heaney ($13M next year) and Gray ($13M in '24 and '25) are ways to bring money down. Would you trade BOTH for '24 to sign Monty for $26M?


Total penalty is about $17M, $25M, and $25M for each of the 1st 3 seasons. Added to the $40M paid for Ohtani. Other penalties apply. You could trade Heaney/Gray to get Top talent to lessen the blow.
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Opportunity:
- Rangers may own their media rights for 2024+ and elevate the pricing. Teams get $60M from MLB for media and the floor for most local media revenue is $40M... ceiling is like $200M+. $100M seems mid.

- Rangers could set a new narrative on where the Metroplex sits in terms of media market.
Attendance and viewership has been limited by Bally's and the Rangers tanking. If you look at viewership during the past 3 years, it has been below what it will be once Bally's is gone.

- It would make the Rangers an "inevitable" favorite for the 2024 WS.
The National media will have to constantly recognize the Rangers. If the Rangers get out quickly, they'll set the narrative for the season.

- All-Star game in Arlington.
All things equal, you now could put 7 position players in the game. You could have 2... 2... SPs.
- Carter, Garcia... - Jung, Seager, Semien, Heim, Ohtani.
The O performance will be off the charts. One expectation is the Rangers would likely exceed 1000Rs for the 1st time by an MLB team since Cle in 1999.

Others of note (since 1900):
1,067: 1931 Yankees
1,065: 1936 Yankees
1,062: 1930 Yankees
1,027: 1960 BoSox
1,009: 1999 Indians/Guardians
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2023
947 Braves (1)
906 Dodgers (2)
881 Rangers (3)

- Ohtani puts the Rangers in a position for Sunday Night featured games/ More exposure.
- Rangers become an International Brand.
- Potential Hall.of.Famer. Would likely go in as a Ranger
- Branding of the Offense.
This would be awesome.
-- Sultans of Swat: Ruth ('20-34 w/NYY), Gehrig ('23-39 w/NYY), Dimaggio ('36-51 w/NYY-WW2), and Mantle ('51-68)
-- Bronx Bombers
-- Bash Brothers (A's McGwire and Canseco)
We'd have the following top of the order:
HR Rank. Name (2023 HRs) - MVP voting
14. Semien (29) - MVP3, 162 GP
5. Seager (33) - MVP2, 119 GP
1. Ohtani (44) - MVP1, 135 GP
2. Garcia (39) - MVP14, 148 GP
145 HRs in 2023 for your Top4.
Atlanta had the most HRs in a season with 307 in 2023.

- Attendance:
-- 2022: 2,011,381 (18th)
-- 2023: 2,533,062 (16th)
-- Capacity: 3,264,300 - 500K X $20 => $10M

- Valuation of Rangers franchise.
Winning a WS should give a boost. Back-to-back and overall media attention will expand the Rangers brand. For rich people, Assets are important. How much are they worth? Valuation can grow faster than through cashflow.

The Yankees are the last team to win back-to-back WS. They won a three-peat.

Quote:

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Valuation went:
$1.700M - 2019
$1.750M - 2020
$1.785M - 2021
$2.050M - 2022 <- Impact of new stadium/FA signings?
$2.225M - 2023 <- Winning
2024? After winning WS?

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Rangers payroll:

Quote:

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Payroll:
2024: $206M
2025: $111M
2026: $ 97M

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I'm ready... Let's get him signed and start Spring Training.

ETA GP by the lineup.