In fairness, Perez accepted a QO, so, I wonder if the Rangers might have hoped he would decline.DannyDuberstein said:
Perez cost them $20 mill. So bumping $5mill to swap out Perez and in Monty is a no brainer to me
*****Official 2023-2024 Texas Rangers Off-season Thread*****
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3663 Replies |
Last: 7 mo ago by Grapesoda2525
Based on those numbers, you'd be adding about $56M.AgBQ-00 said:
Montgomery, Hader and Garver and go from there.
Coming off the books after 2024:
Scherzer: $43.3M
Heaney: $13.0M
Leclerc: $6.25M
------------------------
Total: $62.54M Off the books from '24 to '25
Eovaldi: $17M, with vesting option for 2025
So, you'd go from a '24 rotation of:
Eovaldi - Scherzer - Montgomery - Heaney - Gray
- Dunning, Bradford
'25 rotation would be left with:
Eovaldi - Montgomery - Gray - Dunning - deGrom
- Bradford
You'd have a bullpen with Sborz, Leclerc, and Hader.
If you could back-load some of that money...that'd work for me. I'd say 105Ws easy?
ETA deGrom.
Monty and Hader.
If you got those two, and Scherzer gets right, the club would be a monster. The Rangers would easily get into the playoffs, and this season has shown us that's all you really need.
If you got those two, and Scherzer gets right, the club would be a monster. The Rangers would easily get into the playoffs, and this season has shown us that's all you really need.
Rangers converted 30 of 63 Save opportunities (48%). I think league average is usually around 65%. If our BP converted the league average of 65%, they'd have had 41 Saves, increasing W total by 11G.rgag12 said:
Monty and Hader.
If you got those two, and Scherzer gets right, the club would be a monster. The Rangers would easily get into the playoffs, and this season has shown us that's all you really need.
We'd have finished at 101Ws.
Leclerc's velo was still recovering early in the season, which is why his performance in the 2nd H was so improved. 3.08 v 2.35 ERA
Sborz found himself.
Hader would elevate the who BP, IMO.
Where's deGrom?
My bad...
rgag12 said:
I don't buy the Ohtani story. IMO the agent leaked a narrative to the press that Ohtani is interested in the rangers, (a team known for spending cash recently) to get the west coast teams to up their initial offers.
Could be the case but we were on his short list when he came over as well, and we weren't spending like that then. On top of that, he wants to play for a winner. So we seem to check that box as well (which we didn't back when he came over). I wouldn't underestimate CY and Boch here with Ray's $$$$
DeangeloVickers said:
How in the world is that the market for Aroldis
Look at his numbers. You may not like the eyeball test, but the stats were there. You just have to live with 5 walks per 9 innings, but swing and miss in the back end is a high value commodity. Now, if you look closer, you realize that you can't use him in the 9th inning, and you can't bring him in with runners on, but you can also make a good case that the Rangers aren't the champs without him. Everyone was laughing about how KC got over on Texas, but trophy don't lie.
As a scientist, I'd like to see what he'd do as a 2 inning opener every 5th day for a RH starter.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
Chapman also got bailed out several times. I remember plenty of times Chapman would come in and we would take him out with a few on base where someone else would finish the job. His era could easily be way higher. Also can not use Chapman in back to back days. I'm sure there is plenty of better options for that price.
I predict,DallasAg 94 said:
Fresh off the presses:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
$44M per year for 12 years of Ohtani?! No thanks.
$18M per year for Hader? No thanks.
Montgomery for 6 at $25M.... I think that is in line with what I was expecting. At that price, I'm on the fence.
1. Shohei Ohtani. Twelve years, $528MM
2. Cody Bellinger. Twelve years, $264MM
6. Jordan Montgomery. Six years, $150MM
8. Josh Hader. Six years, $110MM
23. Mitch Garver. Three years, $39MM
24. Michael Wacha. Three years, $36MM
26. Rhys Hoskins. Two years, $36MM
33. Aroldis Chapman. Two years, $24MM
- We will pickup Hader and Garver.
- We will lose a pricing war for Monty and then end up giving too much for one of the other SPs. Maybe someone like Stroman.
- Langford will be called up at game 1
- Dodgers will pay $528MM for Sho
- Yanks will buy both Bellinger and Yoshi
- Snell - keep an eye on this one. Even though the chances are low, he might be that other SP the Rangers seek, after losing Monty. If he could pump out 180 innings of 2.25 era every year, he will be worth every penny of $30MM per year for 7
IMO, priority number 1 needs to be signing at least 1 starter, if not 2 this offseason, whether that includes Montgomery or not. I would not have a ton of confidence in a 2024 rotation of: Eovaldi, Scherzer, Gray, Heaney, Dunning. Too many injury prone players in. Bradford might end up getting 20+ starts and Owen White might end up getting 10+ if that is what we roll out and that does not seem like a recipe for success. Even just adding Monty to that helps a ton and adding another starter would be ideal, but I understand if the money isn't there.
Priority number 2 needs to be signing 2-3 bullpen pieces. Can't roll out the same bullpen as 2023 and expect the results to be any different. Need one superstar back-end guy (Hader) and 1-2 more solid pieces.
Only once those are addressed should we worry about DH. I think we have plenty of guys who could step up and fill that role nicely already in the organization. Langford, Duran, Foscue, etc. I wouldn't think Ohtani would be prioritized unless ownership and CY decide $50+ million per year is worth it for the marketing attention the team would get. If not, I think we can handle ourselves at DH just fine.
Priority number 2 needs to be signing 2-3 bullpen pieces. Can't roll out the same bullpen as 2023 and expect the results to be any different. Need one superstar back-end guy (Hader) and 1-2 more solid pieces.
Only once those are addressed should we worry about DH. I think we have plenty of guys who could step up and fill that role nicely already in the organization. Langford, Duran, Foscue, etc. I wouldn't think Ohtani would be prioritized unless ownership and CY decide $50+ million per year is worth it for the marketing attention the team would get. If not, I think we can handle ourselves at DH just fine.
Predicted signings:
Could also see us moving in the trade market to get another bullpen arm. This would bring payroll to the $220-$230 million range. If this is too much for ownership, I could see us passing on Hader for some cheaper bullpen arms. IMO, Monty or another starter should take priority.
Signing Ohtani would probably push payroll well over $250 million, so I think it is unlikely.
- SP Jordan Montgomery - 5 years/$90 million
- RP Josh Hader - 6 years/$102 million
- RP Reynaldo Lopez - 3 years/$21 million
Could also see us moving in the trade market to get another bullpen arm. This would bring payroll to the $220-$230 million range. If this is too much for ownership, I could see us passing on Hader for some cheaper bullpen arms. IMO, Monty or another starter should take priority.
Signing Ohtani would probably push payroll well over $250 million, so I think it is unlikely.
I mostly agree with your post.caleblyn said:
I predict,
- We will pickup Hader and Garver.
- We will lose a pricing war for Monty and then end up giving too much for one of the other SPs. Maybe someone like Stroman.
- Langford will be called up at game 1
- Dodgers will pay $528MM for Sho
- Yanks will buy both Bellinger and Yoshi
- Snell - keep an eye on this one. Even though the chances are low, he might be that other SP the Rangers seek, after losing Monty. If he could pump out 180 innings of 2.25 era every year, he will be worth every penny of $30MM per year for 7
Monty likely ends up with LAD. The NYY cast him aside 2 years ago and I'd be surprised if they unite. LADs need SP. They also likely get Sho. We just don't need to commit that much to them.
What I don't get is, why people think we're definitely signing a SP. The only reason I think we'd be after Monty is because of the recent team success with him, specifically.
If we run with Eovaldi, Scherzer, Heaney, Dunning, Gray + Bradford... plus OWhite, Leiter, et al, we can reassess at the Trade Deadline to see if we need another SP. It might cost us a prospect, but if we find out Bradford/White/Leiter are legit, we'll have 6 years of team control for a #2/3 on the cheap.
I think this is a prevalent theme on here, and I keep asking to walk through how you (et al) see this.rocky_ag said:
IMO, priority number 1 needs to be signing at least 1 starter, if not 2 this offseason, whether that includes Montgomery or not. I would not have a ton of confidence in a 2024 rotation of: Eovaldi, Scherzer, Gray, Heaney, Dunning. Too many injury prone players in. Bradford might end up getting 20+ starts and Owen White might end up getting 10+ if that is what we roll out and that does not seem like a recipe for success. Even just adding Monty to that helps a ton and adding another starter would be ideal, but I understand if the money isn't there.
Here are their 3yr avg '21-23:
2024 rotation of:
Eovaldi: 26GS, 3.74 ERA, 145 IP
Scherzer: 27GS, 2.83 ERA, 159 IP
Gray: 27GS, 4.23 ERA, 145 IP
Heaney: 22GS, 4.56 ERA, 117 IP
Dunning: 27GS, 4.18 ERA, 148 IP
Totals: 129 GS, 714 IP - 5 2/3 IP/GS (Includes some RP work)
So, that leaves about 33GS... which is the equivalent of a healthy SP. Each pitcher is looking at missing about 7 GS during the season. None of those guys are going to want to move to the BP. You don't know who or when a player will need to miss. Bradford may offload some. If deGrom returns in August, he likely gets 7 +/- GS.
Now, Scherzer and Heaney only have 1 yr left, so '25 will need 2 SPs.
1st Question... is that enough SP to make the playoffs with this offense?
You said it yourself. That is a full season's worth of missed starts for a pitcher. Do you really want Bradford making 33 starts next year? If, God forbid, one of them goes down for the year, do you really want Bradford as the 5th man in the rotation? What if two of them are out simultaneously at any point? Do you really want Owen White making significant starts?
I don't know about you, but I want the number of starts made by Bradford and White to be minimal. That's why signing another SP is critical to me.
I don't know about you, but I want the number of starts made by Bradford and White to be minimal. That's why signing another SP is critical to me.
Holy **** that is impressive! Chalk art like that is awesome
Just because you know you'll likely need a full season's worth of missed starts, doesn't answer the question. As I stated, you don't know who or when. We likely see 2 or 3 on the IL simultaneously. Bradford could end up getting 20GS and we're dipping into #8 or #9 in line.rocky_ag said:
You said it yourself. That is a full season's worth of missed starts for a pitcher. Do you really want Bradford making 33 starts next year? If, God forbid, one of them goes down for the year, do you really want Bradford as the 5th man in the rotation? What if two of them are out simultaneously at any point? Do you really want Owen White making significant starts?
I don't know about you, but I want the number of starts made by Bradford and White to be minimal. That's why signing another SP is critical to me.
You're not moving Heaney or Dunning into the Bullpen as a Long-Reliever as insurance to move back to the rotation.
Dunning (28) is arguably your best SP in 2023. 26GS, 3.70 ERA, 172.2 IP, 140 SO. He has 3 years of Arb control. He is a long-term answer for the rotation.
Heaney (32) is the best argument. And if you get Monty, sure... maybe you make the move. Personally, if you get Monty, I'd trade Heaney.
I actually want the GS from Bradford and White to be 10-15 each throughout the year. I need to know where they are for 2025.
Having said all that, I expect the Rangers to bring in 2-3 retreads into ST as security for a SP injury in ST. 2 or 3 guys on a minor league deal that have some experience at the MLB level, but don't really have a solid path forward.
Our 1-2 punch at SP that won the world series have a combined 117 career wins.
Why not go hard after Snell and Montgomery, and just move Heaney and Gray to the pen full time?
Why not go hard after Snell and Montgomery, and just move Heaney and Gray to the pen full time?
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
I do not understand those saying we need more SP. Bullpen, yes. SP can wait until the trade deadline. But our trade deadline acquisition is hopefully a dude named deGrom.
Just my opinion, but you would be paying those guys way too much to pitch out of the pen. That being said, I absolutely think you need to go out and sign one more guy like Monty or Snell to a five year contract or so. After this coming year, there will be more major questions about the pitching staff, and being able to lock up someone like Monty or Snell for five or so years would go a long way in quelling some of the angst after that year.
You have to remember, we have absolutely ZERO clue what deGrom will look like when he comes back and we still don't have any real studs lined up in the minor leagues. Solidify what you can now and figure it out later.
You have to remember, we have absolutely ZERO clue what deGrom will look like when he comes back and we still don't have any real studs lined up in the minor leagues. Solidify what you can now and figure it out later.
One other thing I'd like to point out. It's a gamble, but given a bit more time, Jonathan Hernandez has wipeout stuff, and a back end with him, Gray, Sborz, and Leclerc could be pretty good.
As far as Gray goes, his max effort stuff was overpowering. I could really see him making the transition like Smoltz (or if you're old school, Eckersley).
As far as Gray goes, his max effort stuff was overpowering. I could really see him making the transition like Smoltz (or if you're old school, Eckersley).
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
I think it is a given we sign (or trade for) a couple starters just based on CY's short history. Maybe Monty and a veteran that could be in the pen if needed. Last year during Spring Training we were all trying to figure out what we were going to do with all the starting pitchers and by the trade deadline we needed two more.
Look at the IP by the starters. The easiest way to shore up the pen is to get more innings out of the starters.fc2112 said:
I do not understand those saying we need more SP. Bullpen, yes. SP can wait until the trade deadline. But our trade deadline acquisition is hopefully a dude named deGrom.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
One thing that the playoffs showed me was having bullpen guys that can go multiple innings and spot start is a very, very good thing.
For anyone wanting souvenir tickets from playoffs finally found the link.
https://directfulfillment.wwlinc.com/TexasRangers/Orders/New
https://directfulfillment.wwlinc.com/TexasRangers/Orders/New
Tksymm7 said:
Just my opinion, but you would be paying those guys way too much to pitch out of the pen. That being said, I absolutely think you need to go out and sign one more guy like Monty or Snell to a five year contract or so. After this coming year, there will be more major questions about the pitching staff, and being able to lock up someone like Monty or Snell for five or so years would go a long way in quelling some of the angst after that year.
You have to remember, we have absolutely ZERO clue what deGrom will look like when he comes back and we still don't have any real studs lined up in the minor leagues. Solidify what you can now and figure it out later.
Completely agree with this. Sounds crazy given what we paid for him but I almost think you don't count on DeGrom and whatever we end up getting from him is a bonus.
We need Montgomery at least. If we did not have him this year, there is no shot we win the world series. And counting on anything from deGrom is a fool's errand at this point.fc2112 said:
I do not understand those saying we need more SP. Bullpen, yes. SP can wait until the trade deadline. But our trade deadline acquisition is hopefully a dude named deGrom.
Not sure why so many willing to dismiss bringing Monty back.
he was a huge part of this team and this run, you do what you need to get him back.
he was a huge part of this team and this run, you do what you need to get him back.
Priority list: Monty, Bullpen, Dh, Luxury piece.
I think everyone would love to have Monty back, but the price absolutely matters here. Once you get to the 25+ million per year territory, you are going to have to think long and hard about it. That's a ton of money to give to a guy and we are already spending a ton of money next year and likely the year after. Not to mention the teams that will be after him and possibly upping the price.
Gotta remember we do not have to pay Perez 20million next season like we did this year. If there is another cheaper option that is just as good as monty then go for it. But Is there any guys like that?
Perez, Miller, Odorizzi, Smith come off the books.
I should've added above; I don't think we have near the capacity to spend this offseason like we have in years past. Could we afford a Jordan Montgomery at around 25/year? Sure, but if you give money like that to him, I don't think there is a ton more on the bone after that. Just as an example; I highly doubt we would give Monty 25/year, then turn around and hand Hader 15/year, Garver 10-15/year and another reliever of your choosing.
I seriously doubt we would pay Montgomery, Hader and Garver. One, maybe two of those. Not all three.
I wonder if garver would take a 3 year 30million deal. If not we have Langford waiting for the call up.
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