Hijo de Reptil?redline248 said:
Are we sure that's not Javier?
***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]
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Last: 7 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
Urquidy has been diagnosed with a forearm muscle strain and won’t throw for a few days, manager Joe Espada said. He’s likely to start season on IL.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) March 18, 2024
bearkatag15 said:Urquidy has been diagnosed with a forearm muscle strain and won’t throw for a few days, manager Joe Espada said. He’s likely to start season on IL.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) March 18, 2024
Best case scenario there
tjack16 said:bearkatag15 said:Urquidy has been diagnosed with a forearm muscle strain and won’t throw for a few days, manager Joe Espada said. He’s likely to start season on IL.
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) March 18, 2024
Best case scenario there
As long as that forearm strain isn't anything like LMJ's….
Bob Watson never had 25 homers?!
Only 73%
Only 73%
I don't think Urquidy's body is as fragile as Lance's.
Assuming we don't sign a starter, the first 5 starting pitchers will be:
Framber
Javier
Brown
France (if he's ready)
Blanco
Go get Snell.
Framber
Javier
Brown
France (if he's ready)
Blanco
Go get Snell.
Have we determined JV is out for a long time? I figured he would be out maybe a few weeks
That shocked me too.Big Al 1992 said:
Bob Watson never had 25 homers?!
Only 73%
He's supposed to be throwing to live batters any day now. Last I read it was only supposed to be a few weeks delayed.tjack16 said:
Have we determined JV is out for a long time? I figured he would be out maybe a few weeks
Sure we want better than Framber, Jaier, Brown, France, and Blanco. But we should have that by May and have significantly more midseason.
51/73
I am not worthy.
I am not worthy.
What do our resident baseball nerds think of MIchael Lorenzen? Could we sign him cheap as rotation insurance?
Yes, I thought he would have been a nice cheap piece last year before we got JV.EastCoastAgNc said:
What do our resident baseball nerds think of MIchael Lorenzen? Could we sign him cheap as rotation insurance?
In my opinion, we need a top-of-the-line starter or not a starter.
Is Michael Lorenzen an update on any of the following? If so, how much? Would he stand a chance to make the postseason rotation? Roster?
- Framber
- Javier
- Brown
- France
- Blanco
- Bielak
- Arrightti
For reference, here are Lorenzen's #s.
2023
153.0 IP
4.18 ERA
1.209 WHP
2020-23
313.1 IP (33.2, 29.0, 97.2, 153.0)
4.34 ERA
1.267 WHIP
I've gone down the rabbit hole of trying to justify giving Snell his year 1 PO (which I assume to be a big component of the current bid/ask spread).
I understand why we don't want to budge there. To pay a big tax bill and lose a draft pick to effectively sign a guy for one year is tough to swallow.
But in theory, he would only exercise the PO if he thinks he can make more on the open market after next year than what he's set to make on the remaining years of his Astros deal. So generally speaking, he's not going to exercise unless he has a good healthy season in 2024.
A good healthy Snell likely puts us back atop the AL this year. Can we get there without him? Perhaps. But he would no doubt increase our chances. Then if he opts out and leaves, we can worry about next year at that time. Hopefully with a healthier staff heading into next offseason.
Is the bigger concern with the year 1 PO that he might not pitch well or have an injury plagued 2024? In which case, we're stuck with him in 2025 and his contract will basically eliminate our flexibility to improve the roster going into what appears to be the last year of our title favorite window?
I understand why we don't want to budge there. To pay a big tax bill and lose a draft pick to effectively sign a guy for one year is tough to swallow.
But in theory, he would only exercise the PO if he thinks he can make more on the open market after next year than what he's set to make on the remaining years of his Astros deal. So generally speaking, he's not going to exercise unless he has a good healthy season in 2024.
A good healthy Snell likely puts us back atop the AL this year. Can we get there without him? Perhaps. But he would no doubt increase our chances. Then if he opts out and leaves, we can worry about next year at that time. Hopefully with a healthier staff heading into next offseason.
Is the bigger concern with the year 1 PO that he might not pitch well or have an injury plagued 2024? In which case, we're stuck with him in 2025 and his contract will basically eliminate our flexibility to improve the roster going into what appears to be the last year of our title favorite window?
Joe Espada said Justin Verlander should face hitters "in the next day or two."
— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) March 18, 2024
67/73The Porkchop Express said:
Thought we could do a Sporcle quiz (or more than one) a day as we count down to the start of the season.
This one is all-time Astros who have hit 25+ homers in a year. I got 65/73, and could have been near perfect except for a brain freeze on a guy from the last 10 years. I look forward to seeing who gets 73 first!
https://www.sporcle.com/games/jgrub7/houston-astros-25-hrs-single-season
Missed
Chris Carter
Jason Lane
Carl Everett
Luis Valbuena
Colby Rasmus
Only got Carlos Lee because it auto filled when I was going for Lee May. Doug Rader only because I was typing almost any player that came to mind from my youth toward the end. No Bob Watson???????
Almost forgot Altuve and Correa, did not type them in until I had about 2:00 minutes left. Have no idea why they did not immediately pop into my mind when I typed in Springer and Breggy.
I think it's a pure value thing.
In the best case scenario, Snell is the 2023 version of himself all over again. He had a 4.1 WAR and FanGraphs valued that at 32.8 M. I would be more than willing to pay 32.8 M for 1 year for Snell. I would go even higher if I thought he could reasonably do that or get close.
But...
1. I don't think he matches 2023.
2. You have to weigh the impact to the draft picks.
3. If **** hits the fan, we're on the hook for however long we guarantee (risk)
I'll dive into a little more detail
1.
BA/xBA: .181 / .208
SLG/xSLG: .286 / .350
wOBA/xwOBA: .266 / .300
ERA/xERA: 2.25 / 3.77
FIP: 3.44
xFIP: 3.62
SIERA: 4.06
That screams regression. Plus he's on the wrong side of 30, has an injury history, and was in a contract year.
2.
I haven't deep-dived too much here, but it is my understanding this will cost us a comp pick and drop-out 1st round pick by 10 spots. I am not even sure how that is possible, maybe that only happens if we miss the postseason.
Ken Rosenthal laid it would that a comp pick is valued at 9-10 M. Assuming this is what we'd lose then that 33 M may drop to 24 M we'd be willing to pay for Snell. QA's are boat anchors around free agents necks.
3.
Snell is only worth it on paper if he's good. If he sucks or if he gets injured than we're overpaying and possibly costing ourselves a shot at keeping Bregman. I am fine taking a risk but there has to be a bigger upside here.
All this said, I still want to sign Snell if we can make it make sense. What I didn't mention of there is the postseason. We need every edge and if he's on then he's a true ace. All it takes is 2 arms to get hot and you can ride them.
In the best case scenario, Snell is the 2023 version of himself all over again. He had a 4.1 WAR and FanGraphs valued that at 32.8 M. I would be more than willing to pay 32.8 M for 1 year for Snell. I would go even higher if I thought he could reasonably do that or get close.
But...
1. I don't think he matches 2023.
2. You have to weigh the impact to the draft picks.
3. If **** hits the fan, we're on the hook for however long we guarantee (risk)
I'll dive into a little more detail
1.
BA/xBA: .181 / .208
SLG/xSLG: .286 / .350
wOBA/xwOBA: .266 / .300
ERA/xERA: 2.25 / 3.77
FIP: 3.44
xFIP: 3.62
SIERA: 4.06
That screams regression. Plus he's on the wrong side of 30, has an injury history, and was in a contract year.
2.
I haven't deep-dived too much here, but it is my understanding this will cost us a comp pick and drop-out 1st round pick by 10 spots. I am not even sure how that is possible, maybe that only happens if we miss the postseason.
Ken Rosenthal laid it would that a comp pick is valued at 9-10 M. Assuming this is what we'd lose then that 33 M may drop to 24 M we'd be willing to pay for Snell. QA's are boat anchors around free agents necks.
3.
Snell is only worth it on paper if he's good. If he sucks or if he gets injured than we're overpaying and possibly costing ourselves a shot at keeping Bregman. I am fine taking a risk but there has to be a bigger upside here.
All this said, I still want to sign Snell if we can make it make sense. What I didn't mention of there is the postseason. We need every edge and if he's on then he's a true ace. All it takes is 2 arms to get hot and you can ride them.
Good stuff.
I tend to agree that the real value in signing Snell is less about helping to bridge injuries in the first month of the season and more about his potential to be an "ace" in the playoffs.
I tend to agree that the real value in signing Snell is less about helping to bridge injuries in the first month of the season and more about his potential to be an "ace" in the playoffs.
Help me out. I keep seeing losing draft picks if we sign Snell.
Which ones / how many would we lose. I haven't seen the specifics mentioned yet (probably missed them).
Which ones / how many would we lose. I haven't seen the specifics mentioned yet (probably missed them).
67, but I started a handwritten list before the timer began so I think that amounts to cheating.
For a career 120 OPS+, I was shocked that one of my favorites never even reached 20 homers... but the Astrodome was huge.
For a career 120 OPS+, I was shocked that one of my favorites never even reached 20 homers... but the Astrodome was huge.
Farmer1906 said:He's supposed to be throwing to live batters any day now. Last I read it was only supposed to be a few weeks delayed.tjack16 said:
Have we determined JV is out for a long time? I figured he would be out maybe a few weeks
Sure we want better than Framber, Jaier, Brown, France, and Blanco. But we should have that by May and have significantly more midseason.
Haven't seen the update but got to see him throw his bullpen on Thursday. Couldn't get too close or get my boys autographs but the word was that went well and he was going to throw live BP this week or a simulated game, IIRC.
Anyway, spring training was so much fun, especially for our boys. The got some autographs (like Pena, Meyers, Hunter Brown, Espada, and a couple others- none of the huge names like JV, Tuve, Yordan, or Breggy) and even got to talk to the players a bit. Last Tuesday when we saw them in Jupiter vs. the Marlins our seats were immediately behind the Astros bullpen and the pitchers were like 3' away. My 13-year old told Brown that his pitching coach tells him to watch Brown's and JV's mechanics to see that big leaguers are doing what he's being coached to do. When he told Brown that, Brown asked "you throw gas?" and he got to say, "I'm 13 and touching 80" which got the nod of approval and sort of "damn son" look from Brown. Needless to say the man-child was on cloud 9. Plus, he saw Connor Greene up from Sugar Land in the pen talking curveballs with another pitcher (Scott I think) and so my boy asked him about throwing the curve better then Greene talked to him for about 5 minutes giving him tips- gonna make it a point to get out to see the Space Cowboys and try to watch him throw.
Then, our youngest is named Jake and when they were getting Meyers's autograph he's telling him, "My name is Jake too and I call you 'Jake from Rake Farm.'" which got a laugh and a high-5.
Our youngest (9) got more attention than our 13-year old. Probably because the 13-year old is like 6'1" in shoes and almost 180 and looks like he probably drove himself to spring training.
But it was a great time. Every time they turned around they were getting handed a baseball by a player or coach. I think we took 2 baseballs to get autographs and came home with like 10.
In a normal situation when a player hits FA for the first time, the team can offer the QO to the free agent. It's a 1-year deal at the average salary of the top 125 players (generally just under 20 M).AgLA06 said:
Help me out. I keep seeing losing draft picks if we sign Snell.
Which ones / how many would we lose. I haven't seen the specifics mentioned yet (probably missed them).
If the player rejects it, then the team who loses him gains a draft pick and the team who signs him loses a draft pick. Then it matters where you are tax bracket-wise on where the draft pick is.
Gain a Pick
If you're in the tax, the compensation pick would be after the 4th round.
If you're not in the tax, the compensation pick would be after the 2nd round.
If you're a revenue-sharing recipient (aka poor ass team), the compensation pick would be after the 1st.
Lose a Pick
If you're in the tax, the compensation pick would be 2nd and 5th highest selections plus 1 M in international bonus pool money
If you;re not in the tax, the compensation pick would be 2nd highest selection plus 500K in international bonus pool money.
If you're a revenue-sharing recipient, the compensation pick would be 3rd highest selection.
Since we were not in the tax last season & already lost our second-rounder for Hader, Snell would cost us a 3rd rounder.
Thank you!
I had the gist, but no way to identify which rounder specifically.
A third rounder for a 1 year rental is an interesting decision. Especially if you think you might already have a dominant starting staff by the all-star break.
I had the gist, but no way to identify which rounder specifically.
A third rounder for a 1 year rental is an interesting decision. Especially if you think you might already have a dominant starting staff by the all-star break.
Farmer1906 said:Yes, I thought he would have been a nice cheap piece last year before we got JV.EastCoastAgNc said:
What do our resident baseball nerds think of MIchael Lorenzen? Could we sign him cheap as rotation insurance?
In my opinion, we need a top-of-the-line starter or not a starter.
Is Michael Lorenzen an update on any of the following? If so, how much? Would he stand a chance to make the postseason rotation? Roster?
- Framber
- Javier
- Brown
- France
- Blanco
- Bielak
- Arrightti
For reference, here are Lorenzen's #s.
2023
153.0 IP
4.18 ERA
1.209 WHP
2020-23
313.1 IP (33.2, 29.0, 97.2, 153.0)
4.34 ERA
1.267 WHIP
Ok, so who is realistic without overpaying for snell? Are we taking free agency or trade?
No one?
A lot can change by the deadline.
A lot can change by the deadline.
60/73 on the quiz. The timer really made me panic
52/73...didn't even notice the timer until there was two minutes left and my mind went blank lol
I'd personally prefer Montgomery. Any insight as to why we don't see to want him?
He had the team RBI record (110) forever but I don't think he ever got higher than 22 HR. He did score baseball's 1 millionth run though!Farmer1906 said:That shocked me too.Big Al 1992 said:
Bob Watson never had 25 homers?!
Only 73%
Hell I looked on BR- that was his only season with even 20 HR. his next highest was 18. He only hit 184 in his career. Great hitter's eye though. .295 ba and .811 ops career.
I got 70/73 and don't really understand how yall got so much less..these are the big boys.
I only missed 29 HR 1972, 28 HR 1973, and 25 HR 1970.
I only missed 29 HR 1972, 28 HR 1973, and 25 HR 1970.
I didn't notice the years until 75% of the clock was done. I was just throwing out names.
Nothing new to report other than they're still in talks with Boras regarding Snell and have been in contact with other arms as well- both starters and relievers. I also know they're working the trade market to shed some salary. I wasn't told who that would involve specifically but you gotta think it would be Montero. No idea how they would make it work- but they're trying.
The one thing I wasn't sure on is if that is based on whether you were above the tax the previous year or projected to be over on the current year. I believe it is the previous year and we were under then.Farmer1906 said:In a normal situation when a player hits FA for the first time, the team can offer the QO to the free agent. It's a 1-year deal at the average salary of the top 125 players (generally just under 20 M).AgLA06 said:
Help me out. I keep seeing losing draft picks if we sign Snell.
Which ones / how many would we lose. I haven't seen the specifics mentioned yet (probably missed them).
If the player rejects it, then the team who loses him gains a draft pick and the team who signs him loses a draft pick. Then it matters where you are tax bracket-wise on where the draft pick is.
Gain a Pick
If you're in the tax, the compensation pick would be after the 4th round.
If you're not in the tax, the compensation pick would be after the 2nd round.
If you're a revenue-sharing recipient (aka poor ass team), the compensation pick would be after the 1st.
Lose a Pick
If you're in the tax, the compensation pick would be 2nd and 5th highest selections plus 1 M in international bonus pool money
If you;re not in the tax, the compensation pick would be 2nd highest selection plus 500K in international bonus pool money.
If you're a revenue-sharing recipient, the compensation pick would be 3rd highest selection.
Since we were not in the tax last season & already lost our second-rounder for Hader, Snell would cost us a 3rd rounder.
I am stumped on who makes sense to trade away. As much as Montero is bad money, we need relief arms. Maybe we can flip Montero & a prospect for a cheap controlled relief arm.texasaggie2015 said:
Nothing new to report other than they're still in talks with Boras regarding Snell and have been in contact with other arms as well- both starters and relievers. I also know they're working the trade market to shed some salary. I wasn't told who that would involve specifically but you gotta think it would be Montero. No idea how they would make it work- but they're trying.
Yes, it is the previous year because the 2024 draft will take place before the 2024 season ends. And payroll/tax is done at the end of the year.MaxPower said:The one thing I wasn't sure on is if that is based on whether you were above the tax the previous year or projected to be over on the current year. I believe it is the previous year and we were under then.Farmer1906 said:In a normal situation when a player hits FA for the first time, the team can offer the QO to the free agent. It's a 1-year deal at the average salary of the top 125 players (generally just under 20 M).AgLA06 said:
Help me out. I keep seeing losing draft picks if we sign Snell.
Which ones / how many would we lose. I haven't seen the specifics mentioned yet (probably missed them).
If the player rejects it, then the team who loses him gains a draft pick and the team who signs him loses a draft pick. Then it matters where you are tax bracket-wise on where the draft pick is.
Gain a Pick
If you're in the tax, the compensation pick would be after the 4th round.
If you're not in the tax, the compensation pick would be after the 2nd round.
If you're a revenue-sharing recipient (aka poor ass team), the compensation pick would be after the 1st.
Lose a Pick
If you're in the tax, the compensation pick would be 2nd and 5th highest selections plus 1 M in international bonus pool money
If you;re not in the tax, the compensation pick would be 2nd highest selection plus 500K in international bonus pool money.
If you're a revenue-sharing recipient, the compensation pick would be 3rd highest selection.
Since we were not in the tax last season & already lost our second-rounder for Hader, Snell would cost us a 3rd rounder.
Next year when we lose Bregman we'll only get a 4th rounder. And if we go out and sign anyone it'll cost us 2 picks!
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