***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

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tjack16
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1:25p, 2/29/24
AG
Yeah I'm a little bummed that they are going Meyers over gold glover Dubon.

I'm guessing they are hoping Dubon makes 90+ starts at other positions when guys get days off
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Farmer1906
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In reply to tjack16 • 1:26p, 2/29/24
AG
tjack16 said:
Yeah I'm a little bummed that they are going Meyers over gold glover Dubon.

I'm guessing they are hoping Dubon makes 90+ starts at other positions when guys get days off


UTL GG.
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tjack16
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:32p, 2/29/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:
tjack16 said:
Yeah I'm a little bummed that they are going Meyers over gold glover Dubon.

I'm guessing they are hoping Dubon makes 90+ starts at other positions when guys get days off


UTL GG.


Still better than Jake in the field from what we've seen

Also without his May-July we might not make the playoffs.
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Deluxe
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1:34p, 2/29/24
AG
I know people have their opinions on Yordan hitting 2nd. I personally love it. I understand why others don't. Who cares.

What's getting me all hot and bothered right now though is having a manager who's not going to default to old school 1970s baseball assumptions to drive his decision making.

Who are our best two hitters? Altuve and Yordan. Over the course of 162 games, who do we want to get the most ABs? Altuve and Yordan. They'll hit 1-2. Settled. Next topic.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to tjack16 • 1:35p, 2/29/24
AG
tjack16 said:
Farmer1906 said:
tjack16 said:
Yeah I'm a little bummed that they are going Meyers over gold glover Dubon.

I'm guessing they are hoping Dubon makes 90+ starts at other positions when guys get days off


UTL GG.


Still better than Jake in the field from what we've seen


You're gunna die on this hill, huh?

Jake is a damn good center fielder. His ability to get to balls provides more value than anyone else on the team at CF.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Deluxe • 1:36p, 2/29/24
AG
Deluxe said:
I know people have their opinions on Yordan hitting 2nd. I personally love it. I understand why others don't. Who cares.

What's getting me all hot and bothered right now though is having a manager who's not going to default to old school 1970s baseball assumptions to drive his decision making.

Who are our best two hitters? Altuve and Yordan. Over the course of 162 games, who do we want to get the most ABs? Altuve and Yordan. They'll hit 1-2. Settled. Next topic.


So we don't want Dubon or Pena to have the second most plate appearances? Am I understanding you correctly?
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Deluxe
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 1:37p, 2/29/24
AG
That was different because we were "trying to get Pena going" and "keep Dubon in a good routine"
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SpaceCityAg05
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1:49p, 2/29/24
AG
I think 1-5 is already settled, at least going into the season. I think Abreu will hit 5 unless another player clearly outperforms him over a long sample size.

Personally, I would go:
6. Diaz/McCormick
7. McCormick/Diaz
8. Pena
9. Meyers

So far, both Chas and Diaz have substantial splits that complement each other, so I would hit Diaz 6 with a RHP starting, and Chas 6 with a LHP starting.

However, the argument could also be made to hit Diaz 7th outright to lessen the amount of lineup shifting when he has the day off. If you do that, then the most common lineup change would be to the 9 hole on days where Caratini catches and takes Meyers spot in the 9 hole, and Diaz and Chas stay put while changing positions (to DH and CF respectively). Dubon would also hit 9th if he starts for Meyers.

I personally like lineup consistency day to day with the exception of strategic moves when there are platoon matchups that make a switch advantageous.
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texasaggie2015
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1:50p, 2/29/24
AG
Jake is significantly better in CF than Dubon. I really don't think it's even close.
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iBrad
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1:51p, 2/29/24
AG
I think Meyers is fully capable of hitting .250 with 20 HRs, which would be fantastic production from the 9-hole. I expect to see pre-shoulder injury Meyers this season.
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W
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1:57p, 2/29/24
AG
another thing we're looking for from Espada in 2024...

an understanding of the importance of tiebreakers

better not see a repeat of the Sunday Sugarland lineup in the series finale (tiebreaker decider) vs. the Blue Jays last year

not all games in the 162 marathon are equal now
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tjack16
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:02p, 2/29/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:
tjack16 said:
Farmer1906 said:
tjack16 said:
Yeah I'm a little bummed that they are going Meyers over gold glover Dubon.

I'm guessing they are hoping Dubon makes 90+ starts at other positions when guys get days off


UTL GG.


Still better than Jake in the field from what we've seen


You're gunna die on this hill, huh?

Jake is a damn good center fielder. His ability to get to balls provides more value than anyone else on the team at CF.


I think Jake will be fine at CF in the 9 hole this year. I just prefer Dubon offensively and I think he brings more to the table in terms of winning this year.

You can't deny he was a huge reason our team held together during the Altuve injury.

Also I'm proposing Chas in CF, Dubon in LF. Not dubon in center
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RED AG 98
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 2:07p, 2/29/24
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Jake is significantly better in CF than Dubon. I really don't think it's even close.
They are quite different, though and both have their place. Jake has elite speed and range, and below average arm. He gets some slack for the injury but I hope he can make strides there. Dubon is pretty average all around as a CF.

There were quite a few times last year where CF was unable to hold a runner from taking an extra base. And it was further compounded by both the strange strategy from many of our pitchers to flatout disregard the baserunner at first and Maldy's inability to be Machete (last year specifically). So many free bases :/.
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EastCoastAgNc
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 2:14p, 2/29/24
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
Jake is significantly better in CF than Dubon. I really don't think it's even close.

Except when it comes to throwing. Jake's arm is pretty weak (based on the eye test)
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EastCoastAgNc
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2:14p, 2/29/24
AG
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Farmer1906
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In reply to SpaceCityAg05 • 2:16p, 2/29/24
AG
I wouldn't read too much in Diaz having reverse splits in his rookie year. I believe he had normal splits in the minors.
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SpaceCityAg05
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 2:21p, 2/29/24
AG
The splits for Chas are much more defined though. He improved his performance against RHP last year, but he continues to crush LHP.

I think it is a safe prediction to say that Chas will hit better against lefties than Diaz and vice versa, even if Diaz becomes more platoon neutral. The way I see that not happening is if Diaz goes insane this year and becomes a .950+ OPS guy (although Chas is still better than that against LHP).
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MosesHallRAB04
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In reply to EastCoastAgNc • 3:20p, 2/29/24
AG
EastCoastAgNc said:


Didn't watch video but if it's a base running drill I assume Altuve had a TOOTBLAN.
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n_touch
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In reply to MosesHallRAB04 • 3:32p, 2/29/24
MosesHallRAB04 said:
EastCoastAgNc said:


Didn't watch video but if it's a base running drill I assume Altuve had a TOOTBLAN.
and Breggy had to go last since everyone else was able to get to the base in a normal amount of time.
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Taxman90
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3:44p, 2/29/24
AG
My only problem with Yordan batting 2nd is that 2 of the 3 people trying to get on base for him will likely have the lowest OBP in the lineup. So while we have other very good hitters that can drive in runs it may not be our best hitter coming up as much with multiple men on base. But maybe 15-30 more at bats is worth that?

Hopefully Tucker will add 15 extra at bats too or it means Alvarez is making the last out of the game a lot.
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redline248
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In reply to Taxman90 • 3:50p, 2/29/24
AG
Quote:
But maybe 15-30 more at bats is worth that?
That is like 7-10 more HRs, so yeah, it's worth it
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Ag_07
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In reply to Taxman90 • 4:02p, 2/29/24
AG
How the hell do you know who's gonna make the last out of games?
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Taxman90
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In reply to Ag_07 • 4:09p, 2/29/24
AG
I don't know.
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texasaggie2015
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4:11p, 2/29/24
AG
The numbers will tell you that your lineup is at its most effective when your best overall hitter bats second. It's not traditional- but it's what they tell you. I believe Aaron Judge hit second for the Yankees. Seager hit second for Texas.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to Taxman90 • 4:17p, 2/29/24
AG
Taxman90 said:
I don't know.


You're not wrong tho. Statically he's more likely to make the last out the earlier he is in the lineup.

Last year the 2 hole had 315 PA with runners on vs 355 for our 3 hole. That's not insignificant. I think that the 315 goes up with Maldy out of the 9 hole.
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Taxman90
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:19p, 2/29/24
AG
Farmer1906 said:
Taxman90 said:
I don't know.


You're not wrong tho. Statically he's more likely to make the last out the earlier he is in the lineup.

Last year the 2 hole had 315 PA with runners on vs 355 for our 3 hole. That's not insignificant. I think that the 315 goes up with Maldy out of the 9 hole.


And Pena out of the 2 hole for a good part of the year.
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Farmer1906
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In reply to texasaggie2015 • 4:20p, 2/29/24
AG
texasaggie2015 said:
The numbers will tell you that your lineup is at its most effective when your best overall hitter bats second. It's not traditional- but it's what they tell you. I believe Aaron Judge hit second for the Yankees.


Look across baseball. The 2 hole topped the 3 hole in production in 23. Seager, Judge, Ohtani/Trout, Freeman, Goldy, Adley, Soler (weak MIA offense), Lindor, Olson, Turner, Devers. It's now the most stacked spot.
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texasaggie2015
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In reply to Farmer1906 • 4:21p, 2/29/24
AG
Bingo. That's no coincidence.
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Lonestar_Ag09
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4:35p, 2/29/24
AG
The radio was discussing that aspect the other day with someone online and it was being discussed whether or not those numbers were 100% accurate or if there was correlation without causation. It was multiple days ago and I don't remember the details.
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An L of an Ag
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5:01p, 2/29/24
AG
Caratini DH, Salazar C.
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Marvin
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In reply to Lonestar_Ag09 • 5:37p, 2/29/24
AG
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
The radio was discussing that aspect the other day with someone online and it was being discussed whether or not those numbers were 100% accurate or if there was correlation without causation. It was multiple days ago and I don't remember the details.

Paging Mathguy.
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Beat40
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In reply to Lonestar_Ag09 • 5:37p, 2/29/24
Lonestar_Ag09 said:
The radio was discussing that aspect the other day with someone online and it was being discussed whether or not those numbers were 100% accurate or if there was correlation without causation. It was multiple days ago and I don't remember the details.


I don't know how the numbers could be significantly inaccurate if they are taking total PAs by lineup position across the league over years and years of data.

It takes a lot for baseball teams to break from tradition, so I feel like if most teams are doing it, especially the ones who have traditionally been good, the data most likely supports the move.
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linkdude
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5:39p, 2/29/24
AG
2 outs then Pena walk, steals second, Caratini walks (after being down 0-2). Dubon singles Pena home, and Salazar does the same with Caratini.

Happy for his contributions but damn does it feel good to be past the Maldonado days.
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Marvin
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5:40p, 2/29/24
AG
Interested in thoughts on Blanco as a starter. Is this driven by how ownership views the minor league arm talent, or do the metrics / projections slot him as a starter?

Seems like he could be a viable middle inning guy, sort of like a replacement for Neres. But, that is 100% speculation on my part.
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Ag_07
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In reply to Marvin • 5:45p, 2/29/24
AG
Pressly is the Neris replacement.

But yeah I think it's just that we're stacked in the BP and there's not really a spot for him there. He's more valuable as spot starter.
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