I agree. Hopefully we get a great contract year out of him and then let him ride out of town with another ring.
***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]
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Last: 8 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
He's not going to get 300 M. Too old. Not good enough.
Ag_07 said:
Then it dawned on me...Well I now know how everyone feels every October watching the Astros win so much. I get the hate.
I don't.
No matter what!
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
Epstein didn't do, you know, the thing...
I'm the rare Astros/Cowboys/Spurs fan. We do exist
No one:
— Jake Meyers Fan Club Member (@DelRaz09) February 12, 2024
Absolutely no one:
Framber Valdez in the 2nd inning: pic.twitter.com/uSyMwHA5HI
Pull the ball in the air. It helps if you don't absolutely crush it. Oppo is fine too. Avoid CF.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/further-adventures-in-pull-rate/
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/further-adventures-in-pull-rate/
Alex Bregman would be a fascinating case study for his analysis.
Limited raw power. Best power results when dead pulling. Lots of roll-over GBs (leading to more DPs).
Outstanding plate discipline and bat to ball ability, but limited power and exit velo.
Limited raw power. Best power results when dead pulling. Lots of roll-over GBs (leading to more DPs).
Outstanding plate discipline and bat to ball ability, but limited power and exit velo.
pull in the air x 1,000...
when you play half your games at MMP
when you play half your games at MMP
as an aside...the 5 ballparks with the shortest distance to centerfield:
1. Fenway 390 ft
2. Oracle Park / Giants 391 ft
3. Dodger Stadium 395 ft
4. Angel Stadium 396 ft
5. Petco Park 396 ft
Minute Maid is listed at 409 ft
1. Fenway 390 ft
2. Oracle Park / Giants 391 ft
3. Dodger Stadium 395 ft
4. Angel Stadium 396 ft
5. Petco Park 396 ft
Minute Maid is listed at 409 ft
'23 Alex Bregman
Pulled, Fly Balls (48)
1.007 wOBA
0.544 xwOBA
Straightaway, Fly Balls (66)
0.100 wOBA
0.327 xwOBA
'20-'23 Bregman
Pulled, Fly Balls (146)
0.915 wOBA
0.485 xwOBA
Straightaway, Fly Balls (172)
0.090 wOBA
0.319 xwOBA
Bregman needs to pull his flyballs even more so than the average hitter.
Here is the league average from '20-'23.
Pulled .897 wOBA
Straightaway .319 wOBA
edit:
League Avg at MMP '20-'23
Pulled .972 wOBA
Straightaway .196 wOBA
Pulled, Fly Balls (48)
1.007 wOBA
0.544 xwOBA
Straightaway, Fly Balls (66)
0.100 wOBA
0.327 xwOBA
'20-'23 Bregman
Pulled, Fly Balls (146)
0.915 wOBA
0.485 xwOBA
Straightaway, Fly Balls (172)
0.090 wOBA
0.319 xwOBA
Bregman needs to pull his flyballs even more so than the average hitter.
Here is the league average from '20-'23.
Pulled .897 wOBA
Straightaway .319 wOBA
edit:
League Avg at MMP '20-'23
Pulled .972 wOBA
Straightaway .196 wOBA
2023 Balls in Play (pulled, flyball)
1. Semien - 77, 2.8% if Pitches
2. Paredes - 59, 2.5%
3. J Ramirez - 58, 2.2%
4. Betts - 57, 2.1%
5. Tucker - 55, 2.1% (tied with 4 others)
15. Bregman - 48, 1.7%
No other Astros near the top
If you look at % only (min 25x), the clear #1 is Adam Duvall @ 3.5%. I know his name has been floated on here as someone we've spoken with. Maybe he can be a nice value piece.
1. Semien - 77, 2.8% if Pitches
2. Paredes - 59, 2.5%
3. J Ramirez - 58, 2.2%
4. Betts - 57, 2.1%
5. Tucker - 55, 2.1% (tied with 4 others)
15. Bregman - 48, 1.7%
No other Astros near the top
If you look at % only (min 25x), the clear #1 is Adam Duvall @ 3.5%. I know his name has been floated on here as someone we've spoken with. Maybe he can be a nice value piece.
Agreed, and while you have to be careful with limited sample size, it is why I think Duvall has better career numbers at MMP than any other stadium.
And on Bregman, this once again explains why Bregman could play like an MVP when the ball was juiced and he could hit it out to the power alley. Without the juiced ball, he has marginal extreme pull power.
It is also why I am leery of how he ages in addition to injury concern. Take someone like Biggio who had longevity because he compensated for a slowing bat with loading up on his pull power. He added HRs as other priduction faded. I don't think Bregman will be able to do that.
And on Bregman, this once again explains why Bregman could play like an MVP when the ball was juiced and he could hit it out to the power alley. Without the juiced ball, he has marginal extreme pull power.
It is also why I am leery of how he ages in addition to injury concern. Take someone like Biggio who had longevity because he compensated for a slowing bat with loading up on his pull power. He added HRs as other priduction faded. I don't think Bregman will be able to do that.
I know this isn't exactly news and that they've got their eyes on another prize, but Hader basically confirmed that the Bally TV contract situation kept Arlington from getting him:AgLA06 said:I only had time to listen to half, but he's saying the right things.Farmer1906 said:
Hader on Foul Territory Yesterday
Hopefully that's real.
"That was the biggest thing for them, the TV deal...that's what was stopping them from making moves"
— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) February 8, 2024
Josh Hader talks about why he didn't end up with the @Rangers, as many fans had expected
▶️ https://t.co/X1Ly3P8n2t pic.twitter.com/2IxXWvBIBR
He could've been a Yankee, but apparently they wouldn't spend a little more than Houston did:
https://www.sportskeeda.com/baseball/news-i-m-gonna-blow-arm-out-astros-newcomer-josh-hader-makes-startling-revelation-transformed-pitching-career-reliever
Props to Crane for stepping up and signing Josh after how last year's off season went. People will keep yapping about how it was too much money for a reliever, but it was important for this organization to show it's not going away quietly despite not having a lot of moves to make to improve the roster. Coupled with some improvement from starting pitching (i know it wasn't as bad as it seemed at times last year), that bullpen trio can be the difference against Arlington, Baltimore, NY, and the NL champs in the postseason.
SpaceCityAg05 said:
Agreed, and while you have to be careful with limited sample size, it is why I think Duvall has better career numbers at MMP than any other stadium.
And on Bregman, this once again explains why Bregman could play like an MVP when the ball was juiced and he could hit it out to the power alley. Without the juiced ball, he has marginal extreme pull power.
It is also why I am leery of how he ages in addition to injury concern. Take someone like Biggio who had longevity because he compensated for a slowing bat with loading up on his pull power. He added HRs as other priduction faded. I don't think Bregman will be able to do that.
I personally think Bregman will age like Uncle Mike. As he gets older he will abandon the attempt at power and embrace using the entire field and become an on base machine who finds holes but doesn't have pop. That isn't a 10/300 player but it's a very solid addition to your lineup. The issue is the in between where he resides now, he believes he can increase his pull and get pull home runs.
Lonestar_Ag09 said:SpaceCityAg05 said:
Agreed, and while you have to be careful with limited sample size, it is why I think Duvall has better career numbers at MMP than any other stadium.
And on Bregman, this once again explains why Bregman could play like an MVP when the ball was juiced and he could hit it out to the power alley. Without the juiced ball, he has marginal extreme pull power.
It is also why I am leery of how he ages in addition to injury concern. Take someone like Biggio who had longevity because he compensated for a slowing bat with loading up on his pull power. He added HRs as other priduction faded. I don't think Bregman will be able to do that.
I personally think Bregman will age like Uncle Mike. As he gets older he will abandon the attempt at power and embrace using the entire field and become an on base machine who finds holes but doesn't have pop. That isn't a 10/300 player but it's a very solid addition to your lineup. The issue is the in between where he resides now, he believes he can increase his pull and get pull home runs.
Totally disagree. Uncle Mike was a pure hitter before he got old. Bregman isn't close to that. You have to hope he ages into Biggio and embraces the Crawford boxes.
The problem is that he is not Uncle Mike. They both have an amazing eye and contact ability, but Uncle Mike has an amazingly pure and simple approach at the plate. While lacking in power, the result was incredible consistency.
Bregman's swing is constantly changing as he tinkers. That is why he goes through prolonged hot/cold phases. He has more pop than Uncle Mike, but he is not as pure of a hitter. That is why he only hit even .270 once in the last 4 years. I don't think he is "sacrificing" hits for power like Altuve is compared to his early career.
I agree Bregman ought to maintain decent OBP even late into his career, but I think that player will be a league average hitter overall once he hits his early to mid 30s.
I really like Alex Bregman, but I think he ages like Springer - a guy who will always be an Astros legend but one with whom we should avoid a long-term commitment in the future.
Bregman's swing is constantly changing as he tinkers. That is why he goes through prolonged hot/cold phases. He has more pop than Uncle Mike, but he is not as pure of a hitter. That is why he only hit even .270 once in the last 4 years. I don't think he is "sacrificing" hits for power like Altuve is compared to his early career.
I agree Bregman ought to maintain decent OBP even late into his career, but I think that player will be a league average hitter overall once he hits his early to mid 30s.
I really like Alex Bregman, but I think he ages like Springer - a guy who will always be an Astros legend but one with whom we should avoid a long-term commitment in the future.
Mathguy64 said:Lonestar_Ag09 said:SpaceCityAg05 said:
Agreed, and while you have to be careful with limited sample size, it is why I think Duvall has better career numbers at MMP than any other stadium.
And on Bregman, this once again explains why Bregman could play like an MVP when the ball was juiced and he could hit it out to the power alley. Without the juiced ball, he has marginal extreme pull power.
It is also why I am leery of how he ages in addition to injury concern. Take someone like Biggio who had longevity because he compensated for a slowing bat with loading up on his pull power. He added HRs as other priduction faded. I don't think Bregman will be able to do that.
I personally think Bregman will age like Uncle Mike. As he gets older he will abandon the attempt at power and embrace using the entire field and become an on base machine who finds holes but doesn't have pop. That isn't a 10/300 player but it's a very solid addition to your lineup. The issue is the in between where he resides now, he believes he can increase his pull and get pull home runs.
Totally disagree. Uncle Mike was a pure hitter before he got old. Bregman isn't close to that. You have to hope he ages into Biggio and embraces the Crawford boxes.
Why would he age into embracing the Crawford boxes, a feature of a stadium he will maybe play in a handful of times every 2-3 years
SpaceCityAg05 said:
The problem is that he is not Uncle Mike. They both have an amazing eye and contact ability, but Uncle Mike has an amazingly pure and simple approach at the plate. While lacking in power, the result was incredible consistency.
Bregman's swing is constantly changing as he tinkers. That is why he goes through prolonged hot/cold phases. He has more pop than Uncle Mike, but he is not as pure of a hitter. That is why he only hit even .270 once in the last 4 years. I don't think he is "sacrificing" hits for power like Altuve is compared to his early career.
I agree Bregman ought to maintain decent OBP even late into his career, but I think that player will be a league average hitter overall once he hits his early to mid 30s.
I really like Alex Bregman, but I think he ages like Springer - a guy who will always be an Astros legend but one with whom we should avoid a long-term commitment in the future.
I think you missed my point. I agree they aren't the same player… right now. What I was saying is if he sticks and makes it to the end of his next contract it will because he finally acknowledges he isn't a power hitter and transitions to a pure spray it around the park hitter like Mike. And he does have that ability.
The reason he's continually tinkering is because he's trying to critique the small window he has for a power slot.
I'm not saying that he will make the changes I'm talking about, I'm saying if he wants to play another 10 years successfully that will be home it is done. If he continues to tweak and be a power hitter he will drop below league average and will no longer be a productive member of his team.
I totally get your point. I just don't know that he can make that transition.
In 2023, Yordan pulled the ball 40% of the time and his hardest 50% of batted balls was over 104 mph.Farmer1906 said:
Pull the ball in the air. It helps if you don't absolutely crush it. Oppo is fine too. Avoid CF.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/further-adventures-in-pull-rate/
In regards to the Bregman conversation: Alex's top 50% hardest batted balls was only 98 mph. Behind Chas, Pena, and even Maldonado.
Diaz was 2nd on the team with 101.6 (Thanks Dusty
)
Yainer's ceiling is so damn high. Just think if he can get more selective, draw some walks, and then continue his ridiculous bat to ball skills. We're talking top 10 hitter from the catcher position.
I'm not saying it happens. I bet lack of walks haunts him most of his career, but the path is there.
I'm not saying it happens. I bet lack of walks haunts him most of his career, but the path is there.
Tuve Time is near! 🕐 pic.twitter.com/bQLUNXlp6V
— MLB (@MLB) February 12, 2024
Push, push, push, over, over.
If he plays anything like the last 2 seasons, he'll crush this projection.
I was looking some more at the statcast values for the Astros last season. Pena had an average launch angle of 5.5 degrees. Groundball machine Doubon was only 9.5. There's no way Pena is that low again, right?
Farmer1906 said:
Yainer's ceiling is so damn high. Just think if he can get more selective, draw some walks, and then continue his ridiculous bat to ball skills. We're talking top 10 hitter from the catcher position.
Top 10 is top 1/3...He's already there today.
Do what you're talking about and that's top 3 material.
Ag_07 said:Farmer1906 said:
Yainer's ceiling is so damn high. Just think if he can get more selective, draw some walks, and then continue his ridiculous bat to ball skills. We're talking top 10 hitter from the catcher position.
Top 10 is top 1/3...He's already there today.
Do what you're talking about and that's top 3 material.
Top 10 regardless of position. But we'd be getting that crazy production from our catcher, not as an OFer or DH.
I'm just saying he's got the tools and path to get there. Someone like Chas, Pena, or even Bregman probably doesn't have the tools in the toolbelt to ever reach that unless they change the balls again.
I think he meant top 10 OVERALL while also playing catcher. No brainer that he is a top 10 bat AMONG catchers - he is already well past that threshold.
Yainer could end up being what everyone thought Gary Sanchez was going to be after a half season with the Yankees.
Yup. Or he could be the next Javier Baez too.
Ah ok...I read a top 10 hitting catcher. I see what you're saying
So, if it's true what many have suggested, that Bregman is not a 10/$300 player, how many would also say he's not a top 5 in your lineup hitter?
Maybe he fits in the 5 spot? His biggest attribute as a hitter is, probably, his ability to draw walks and put pressure on the pitcher to throw strikes. So there is some value in having him in front of the really dangerous hitters.
Maybe he fits in the 5 spot? His biggest attribute as a hitter is, probably, his ability to draw walks and put pressure on the pitcher to throw strikes. So there is some value in having him in front of the really dangerous hitters.
Altuve
Bregman
Yordan
Tucker
Diaz
Abreu
Chas
Peña
Meyers
That's my preferred lineup
Bregman
Yordan
Tucker
Diaz
Abreu
Chas
Peña
Meyers
That's my preferred lineup
Meyers would arguably be the best 9-hole hitter in baseball.
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