***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

991,109 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 8 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
Farmer1906
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texasaggie2015 said:

agproducer said:

I agree with you. The writer raises some important questions -- but it's not all doom and gloom.

The fact is: the Astros will have to get younger and rely on younger players to fill in the gaps.

They've shown they have been able to do it in the past, and there is nothing to indicate they won't do it in the future.


The farm system is nowhere close to what it's been in the past unfortunately. 2025 or 2026 (depending on how 2024 plays out) will be the years the soft rebuild will start. I've been told this is what the plan is. If you read up on the backgrounds of some of the recent front office hires (a lot of scouting experience) they want to reload the farm system as fast as possible.

I'm not saying the farm system has no talent. There's some guys who very well could turn out to be excellent big league players, but the majority of prospects in the system project to be average big leaguers at best. Which is fine... but not ideal when your farm system lacks star power.

That's why Dana Brown drafted the way he did. Brice Matthews and most of the other first few picks have tremendously high ceilings but also very low floors. Most will ultimately not pan out. But if you hit on one or two.. you're in business.

The next couple years are going to be really interesting.
The farm is hard to judge. We've been very good at targeting undervalued guys with a particular skill set or type and developed the hell out of them. Most agree were down, but then again most agreed back in 2020 we were down too. Since then we've called up Javier, McCormick, Meyers, Pena, Brown, Diaz, Garcia, & France.

I do not doubt what you're saying though. What would a soft reset even look like? If we're not willing to trade away a valuable asset (they haven't yet) and you're still going to spend decent money (Crane's money machine goes brrr) - will things look any different?
bearkatag15
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Fightin' Texas Aggie and Sam Houston State Bearkat
Farmer1906
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Ridiculous fastball spin & a wipeout slider. Why not.

Edit:

Grossly low K rate. In his tiny big league sample he got a lot of soft contact. Maybe he's Keuchel esce.
EastCoastAgNc
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Pour one out for big Joel
agproducer
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We appreciate the insight. I should clarify my point -- the young players don't necessarily need to come from the farm. They can be projects or players with great potential that other clubs have given up on.

It's less than ideal.

It will take a few years to completely reload.

I'm also curious -- what does a soft reset look like? I'm looking at it this way with the idea that the one FA we resign will be Altuve. I think Bregs, Tuck and Framber will end up wanting a lot more than the Astros want to commit -- and they'll likely get it.

Here's how I see it (and I may completely and totally wrong), but the overall core is still there. It just shifts to a newer core around Altuve, Yordan, Pena, Yainer and Chas.

2026 may be a little leaner, but I think the pieces are there for a WC.

2025
C Yainer
1B Abreu (last year)
2B Altuve (resigned)
SS Pena
3B Dezenzo
LF Chas
CF Meyers/Dubie/Melton
RF Tuck
DH Yordan

Rotation
JV
Framber
Javier
France
Brown

Bullpen
Pressly
Montero
Abreu
LMJ
LuAce (you said he may be better in bullpen)
Coleman
Blanco
Urquidy

The issue I see in 2025 would be depth.

2026
C Yanier
1B Loperfido
2B Altuve
SS Pena
3B Dezenzo
LF Chas
CF Melton/Corona/Matthews
RF Melton/Barber
DH Yordan

Rotation
Javier
Brown
France
Arrighetti
Dubin

BP
Abreu
LMJ
LuAce
Blanco
Coleman
One of the pitchers currently in minors (Santa, Kouba, Gordon)
FA
FA

*Disclaimer: I don't have the organizational insight as others on this board. I'm just going by rankings and from what I've seen.
Farmer1906
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That looks to be the most expensive bullpen of all time. (maybe not... didn't the Dodgers move Price to the bullpen along with Jansen making stupid money)

Pressly - 14 M
Montero - 11.5 M
Abreu - 2nd Year Arb
LMJ - 17 M
Garcia - 2nd Year Arb (I think he loses the "ace" in the bullpen)
Urquidy - 3rd Year Arb
agproducer
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That's true, but where do you put LMJ? I don't think he will be back in the rotation with his durability issues. That contract ship has sailed. Get what you can out of him.
Ag_07
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Quote:

Rotation
Javier
Brown
France
Arrighetti
Dubin

This does not sit well with me.

They'll need to find some starting pitching via either trade of free agency.
Farmer1906
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agproducer said:

That's true, but where do you put LMJ? I don't think he will be back in the rotation with his durability issues. That contract ship has sailed. Get what you can out of him.
I think he'll be back to his co Ace form by the end of 2024.
Farmer1906
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Ag_07 said:

Quote:

Rotation
Javier
Brown
France
Arrighetti
Dubin

This does not sit well with me.

They'll need to find some starting pitching via either trade of free agency.
Depends on development. I agree, this won't cut it long term.

agproducers thorough breakdown has us spending very little money. We'll be a good 100+ M from the tax with his projection.
agproducer
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Farmer1906 said:

Ag_07 said:

Quote:

Rotation
Javier
Brown
France
Arrighetti
Dubin

This does not sit well with me.

They'll need to find some starting pitching via either trade of free agency.
Depends on development. I agree, this won't cut it long term.

agproducers thorough breakdown has us spending very little money. We'll be a good 100+ M from the tax with his projection.
Absolutely. So, there is a lot of room for FAs. I just wanted to illustrate that the cupboard isn't as bare as it may seem.

That 2026 rotation though -- needs help.
tjack16
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I do wonder how a soft rebuild will go post 2024 when you have these super teams like the Dodgers and Braves. Plus a potential Orioles juggernaut on the rise.

I like the writers comp of the Astros to the 2004-2013 Red Sox. If we can pull off 3 titles in 10 seasons plus getting Altuve a 3rd, I'd be ecstatic.
Marvin
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agproducer said:



2026
C Yanier
1B Loperfido
2B Altuve
SS Pena
3B Dezenzo
LF Chas
CF Melton/Corona/Matthews
RF Melton/Barber
DH Yordan

Rotation
Javier
Brown
France
Arrighetti
Dubin

BP
Abreu
LMJ
LuAce
Blanco
Coleman
One of the pitchers currently in minors (Santa, Kouba, Gordon)
FA
FA

*Disclaimer: I don't have the organizational insight as others on this board. I'm just going by rankings and from what I've seen.


That's at best a .500 club transitioning in the wrong direction... which is why '25 will be so fascinating. The front office can't trade stars during a playoff run, but once again, how do you let Valdez and Tucker walk? Same with Bregman.

My fear is the club loses all those guys and has to start over from scratch with virtually no talent to trade away. I guess Yordan, if you really want to start over.
Farmer1906
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tjack16
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The Porkchop Express
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McCullers has already prepared us for 2027 by vanishing for years at a time.
Project Gemini
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It would be nice to have Altuve wrapped up before opening day for my peace of mind. It will stress me out more to watch every AB with the thought of it being potentially his last season as an Astro than all the sillyness we put up with last year.
Big Bucks
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tjack16 said:

I do wonder how a soft rebuild will go post 2024 when you have these super teams like the Dodgers and Braves. Plus a potential Orioles juggernaut on the rise.

I like the writers comp of the Astros to the 2004-2013 Red Sox. If we can pull off 3 titles in 10 seasons plus getting Altuve a 3rd, I'd be ecstatic.


I hate to be pessimistic but 2023 was our best shot at doing that before the baby O's grew up, home field for the ALCS, and the Diamondbacks coming out of the NL. But we got "Dustied". And no, I'm still not thanking him.
BadAggie
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EastCoastAgNc said:


Pour one out for big Joel


The Porkchop Express
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Big Bucks said:

tjack16 said:

I do wonder how a soft rebuild will go post 2024 when you have these super teams like the Dodgers and Braves. Plus a potential Orioles juggernaut on the rise.

I like the writers comp of the Astros to the 2004-2013 Red Sox. If we can pull off 3 titles in 10 seasons plus getting Altuve a 3rd, I'd be ecstatic.


I hate to be pessimistic but 2023 was our best shot at doing that before the baby O's grew up, home field for the ALCS, and the Diamondbacks coming out of the NL. But we got "Dustied". And no, I'm still not thanking him.
The funny thing about dynasties is that it's really hard to keep those young guys together and keep everyone happy and healthy. Most of us remember when Wood, Prior and Zambrano rose up for the Cubs and they were going to win the next 10 NL pennants ,right?
Farmer1906
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The Porkchop Express said:

Big Bucks said:

tjack16 said:

I do wonder how a soft rebuild will go post 2024 when you have these super teams like the Dodgers and Braves. Plus a potential Orioles juggernaut on the rise.

I like the writers comp of the Astros to the 2004-2013 Red Sox. If we can pull off 3 titles in 10 seasons plus getting Altuve a 3rd, I'd be ecstatic.


I hate to be pessimistic but 2023 was our best shot at doing that before the baby O's grew up, home field for the ALCS, and the Diamondbacks coming out of the NL. But we got "Dustied". And no, I'm still not thanking him.
The funny thing about dynasties is that it's really hard to keep those young guys together and keep everyone happy and healthy. Most of us remember when Wood, Prior and Zambrano rose up for the Cubs and they were going to win the next 10 NL pennants ,right?


And then again in 2016 with Baez, Rizzo, Heyward, Bryant, & Arrieta.
tjack16
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Big Bucks said:

tjack16 said:

I do wonder how a soft rebuild will go post 2024 when you have these super teams like the Dodgers and Braves. Plus a potential Orioles juggernaut on the rise.

I like the writers comp of the Astros to the 2004-2013 Red Sox. If we can pull off 3 titles in 10 seasons plus getting Altuve a 3rd, I'd be ecstatic.


I hate to be pessimistic but 2023 was our best shot at doing that before the baby O's grew up, home field for the ALCS, and the Diamondbacks coming out of the NL. But we got "Dustied". And no, I'm still not thanking him.


Yeah that's why I'll probably always be angry about the 2023 ALCS. More angry about it than 2019
Big Bucks
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Agree, same here.
spadilly
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Project Gemini said:

It would be nice to have Altuve wrapped up before opening day for my peace of mind. It will stress me out more to watch every AB with the thought of it being potentially his last season as an Astro than all the sillyness we put up with last year.


Maybe it's just my optimism, but I see absolutely no way Altuve doesn't finish his career here. I could even see him doing a team friendly contract if they ask him to. I don't think he wants to deal with playing anywhere else, and I don't think Crane lets him go.
He's the one player on this team I have no stress or worry about keeping.
tjack16
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spadilly said:

Project Gemini said:

It would be nice to have Altuve wrapped up before opening day for my peace of mind. It will stress me out more to watch every AB with the thought of it being potentially his last season as an Astro than all the sillyness we put up with last year.


Maybe it's just my optimism, but I see absolutely no way Altuve doesn't finish his career here. I could even see him doing a team friendly contract if they ask him to. I don't think he wants to deal with playing anywhere else, and I don't think Crane lets him go.
He's the one player on this team I have no stress or worry about keeping.


I'm optimistic he will take a team friendly deal to stay.
EastCoastAgNc
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3B Paul 97
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EastCoastAgNc said:



Thank you, Dusty???
mAgnoliAg
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Do we get extra international pool for this like the extra draft pick
htxag09
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MLB Pickle #667 - 2/9




Now on MLB Play: https://mlbplay.app.link/wFaT3zexTpb
Farmer1906
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Same. I was hoping today was the 1/9. I always have the same first guess. I think yall know who.
tjack16
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Farmer1906 said:

Same. I was hoping today was the 1/9. I always have the same first guess. I think yall know who.


Took me 3 guesses. But yeah I always have the same 1st guess. I always go Altuve first
superaggie73
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tjack16 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Same. I was hoping today was the 1/9. I always have the same first guess. I think yall know who.


Took me 3 guesses. But yeah I always have the same 1st guess. I always go Altuve first


Took me 2 guesses today and I always start with Altuve as well. As soon as I saw B/T, I knew who it was.
Teddy Perkins
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Thought he had more in the tank but this makes sense. Will always love the professional hitter.
spadilly
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In honor:

texasaggie2015
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spadilly said:

In honor:


This is one of my favorite plays in Astros history.
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