***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

1,022,337 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
Lonestar_Ag09
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According the MLB.com we currently have 37 guys listed on the 40 man roster, this includes:
Bielak
Dubin
Gage
Garcia (might be moved to 60 day when able)
Kuhnle
Oliver Ortega (Dont know who that is)
Whitley
Singleton
Julks
Meyers

At least a few of those probably have to be dropped this off season. But someone posted an article the other day about a few guys who are Rule 5 eligible and need to be protected. Wasn't Whitcomb one, he seems worth protecting. Also Tamarez(sp?) was on there and isn't he supposed to have a really live arm? I recall his name being discussed as one to watch for the future in spring training

texasaggie2015
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Kennedy Corona will need to be protected
Farmer1906
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The highlights from the Rome Offseason article:


Quote:

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. The Astros' 2022 offseason is an outlier. A franchise that often uses free agency to augment the margins instead paid $105 million to three players who, according to Baseball Reference, produced minus-0.4 wins above replacement. Owner Jim Crane operated without a general manager and left a predicament for the one he hired.
Rome pulling no punches. He's not wrong.


Quote:

His roster does not need a dramatic overhaul, but potential to upgrade at various positions is apparent. On Tuesday, Brown acknowledged he has little financial flexibility to do so.

"I don't think we have a ton, but I think the deal is this: I think Jim will do whatever it takes to win. And if it means that we have to spend a little more, he will do it. I think he's definitely shown faith in me to drive this thing. So if I go to him and say, 'Hey, we have this potential scenario on the table. You can probably get this done. I need you to get this approved.' I think we'll be able to do that," Brown said.
This feels right. Crane doesn't spend to spend, but he isn't afraid of the big deal or signing.


Quote:

The first luxury tax threshold in 2024 is $237 million. Cot's Contracts currently projects Houston's 2024 CBT payroll at $235,168,810. Roster Resource estimates it at $231,396,032.
We are right up against it. Note: 1st time into it, its only a 20% tax on the overage. The biggest negative is any OQ draft pick moved from competitive round B (between 2 and 3) to round 4. We could be getting 2 of those is Bregman & Altuve walk.


Quote:

"I think Jim understands that this team is in good shape and I think Jim understands that we beat the Rangers 12 out of 20 times. We beat them 12, they beat us eight," Brown said. "We're competitive. We're just as good as the Rangers. We came up short. Losing those last two games at home was a killer, of course, but, we're definitely in a position to go back and win the division and get deep into the postseason again. We have a good team. I really believe in this team."
He's not wrong, but I hate this kind of talk.


Quote:

Dana Brown spoke for more than 30 minutes in Scottsdale. Some takeaways:
No timeline on the managerial search, but interviews have started. Joe Espada is the lone internal candidate.
The team is open to adding a starter
Outfield help is not a priority

Quote:

"I think it's one of those things where going in, teams may think that we don't have flexibility, but I think we have flexibility because I think Jim's willing to spend if we could come up with some right pieces that make sense financially," Brown said.

Bullpen depth and a backup catcher are Brown's foremost priorities. Both positions were depleted after Hector Neris, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Martn Maldonado entered free agency earlier this month. Brown said on Tuesday he's spoken with Neris' representation about a possible reunion. One with Maldonado can't be discounted, either, as a backup to incoming starter Yainer Diaz.
Nice to know we're not 100% done with Neris.


Quote:

"If it comes down to getting a seventh inning guy and we have to use money that we could use for a sixth inning guy and a catcher, we'll probably get the sixth inning guy and a catcher and fill the seventh inning from within," Brown said. "Our last two guys are pretty good guys Abreu and Pressly. You can go to the World Series with those guys. They're good enough."
If you can't tell yet, we're going budget arms. It is probably time to say bye bye to any though of Hader, Hicks, and that group.

Quote:


"We do get offensive production from Alvarez and McCormick and also Dubn. I think we can catch the ball defensively," Brown said. "I'd rather focus on maybe getting more depth in the rotation or getting stronger in the bullpen or getting the backup catcher. The backup catcher and the bullpen are priorities. But (if) we get an opportunity to add a legit third starter or better, we'll definitely be in the mix for that."
Doubling down on not OF. Not sure where you find a legit #3 for a good price. Those MFers are expensive. Plus we're already paying Javier & McCullers for that.


Quote:

Brown said he expects Garcia and McCullers back on a major-league mound "by early July or so," but it's impossible to know what either man will provide after serious elbow surgeries. Inconsistency from Valdez and Cristian Javier only adds to the urgency.

"I think we're good enough to get back to the postseason with the current rotation," Brown said, "but I'm not being close-minded to, if a starter falls in our lap and if we can make it fit financially, I would be interested."

Someone finally puts a date out there. I was hoping Lance had a shot to come back sooner.
Lonestar_Ag09
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Farmer1906 said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Anyone with eyes knows what we need. We lost 3 bullpen pieces and our left fielder. We're pretty much locked in everywhere else.
Our left fielder is a monster sized 6'6" Cuban who hits from the left side and can turn regular line drives into no doubt HR
K then we could use a DH and a part-time left fielder because the giant Cuban has played 40, 56, and 39 games in LF in '23, '22, and '21.
I get those numbers but if you look at them in terms of games played it isnt as low as that makes it seem
This is % of his games in LF
2021- 27%
2022- 41%
2023- 35%

I could see him easily reaching 50% if he is healthy in 2024
Farmer1906
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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Anyone with eyes knows what we need. We lost 3 bullpen pieces and our left fielder. We're pretty much locked in everywhere else.
Our left fielder is a monster sized 6'6" Cuban who hits from the left side and can turn regular line drives into no doubt HR
K then we could use a DH and a part-time left fielder because the giant Cuban has played 40, 56, and 39 games in LF in '23, '22, and '21.
I get those numbers but if you look at them in terms of games played it isnt as low as that makes it seem
This is % of his games in LF
2021- 27%
2022- 41%
2023- 35%

I could see him easily reaching 50% if he is healthy in 2024



I think that's fair. Who's playing LF and DH opposite him?
Beat40
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I'm legitimately concerned about LMJ at this point. I'm not so far to say I'm concerned he'll never pitch again, but man, July will be a little over a year and a half since the forearm strain.
EastCoastAgNc
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He didn't get surgery until July or August. It's a reasonable timeline
Farmer1906
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Beat40 said:

I'm legitimately concerned about LMJ at this point. I'm not so far to say I'm concerned he'll never pitch again, but man, July will be a little over a year and a half since the forearm strain.


He had flexor tendon surgery and removed a large bone spur. Seems like a little more than "foreman strain".

He rehabbed for this twice after 21 and 22. It seems like the medical staff probably should have pushed for surgery after 21 then we have a fresh Lance 23 and 24.
Beat40
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Farmer1906 said:

Beat40 said:

I'm legitimately concerned about LMJ at this point. I'm not so far to say I'm concerned he'll never pitch again, but man, July will be a little over a year and a half since the forearm strain.


He had flexor tendon surgery and removed a large bone spur. Seems like a little more than "foreman strain".

He rehabbed for this twice after 21 and 22. It seems like the medical staff probably should have pushed for surgery after 21 then we have a fresh Lance 23 and 24.
I did forget he ended up having surgery and what the official diagnosis was. Less concerned. Appreciate catching me up.
MaxPower
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In general I'm unimpressed with Dana when he talks. He seemed to be confused as to what control we have over Espada (who is not under contract). Now he is saying we don't have the money for a 7th inning RP but might for a #3 starter? Makes no sense given the price point. Add that to all the blowhard comments on extensions that never came to fruition. I fear he may just be a guy you want running the draft but not your big league club. That may be what Crane wants but I'm not sure he'll like what he gets.
AgLA06
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Farmer1906 said:

Anyone with eyes knows what we need. We lost 3 bullpen pieces and our left fielder. We're pretty much locked in everywhere else.


I'm not sure that's true at this point. I'd like a .300 hitting left handed , left fielder with power, but between Chaz, Duby, and Yordan you're already platooning three guys for 2 spots. You'd almost have to deal Chaz or Duby to justify doing so.

And in theory with starters returning from the DL, you will already be moving proven starters to the pen that should help cover your losses (excess Neris).

I think the only true need is a replacement for Neris and a true backup catcher that can mentor, but not hendor Diaz.

Wants:
stud lefty left fielder
#2 type starter
Farmer1906
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AgLA06 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Anyone with eyes knows what we need. We lost 3 bullpen pieces and our left fielder. We're pretty much locked in everywhere else.


I'm not sure that's true at this point. I'd like a .300 hitting left handed , left fielder with power, but between Chaz, Duby, and Yordan you're already platooning three guys for 2 spots. You'd almost have to deal Chaz or Duby to justify doing so.

And in theory with starters returning from the DL, you will already be moving proven starters to the pen that should help cover your losses (excess Neris).

I think the only true need is a replacement for Neris.

Wants:
stud lefty left fielder
#2 type starter



Yordan is part time DH.

It's more like you have 2.5 players for 3 spots. You don't want Dubon playing everyday. I think there is basically one opportunity it's to improve the offense and that is with someone who hits RHP well that can DH & play LF.

Dubon vs RHP is 84 wRC+ in 2023 and 71 for his career. The bar is low.
W
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remember that Yordan played in 114 games

missed 48 games

the Astros need a good 3rd/4th outfielder -- he will play a lot
Lonestar_Ag09
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Farmer1906 said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

Farmer1906 said:

Anyone with eyes knows what we need. We lost 3 bullpen pieces and our left fielder. We're pretty much locked in everywhere else.
Our left fielder is a monster sized 6'6" Cuban who hits from the left side and can turn regular line drives into no doubt HR
K then we could use a DH and a part-time left fielder because the giant Cuban has played 40, 56, and 39 games in LF in '23, '22, and '21.
I get those numbers but if you look at them in terms of games played it isnt as low as that makes it seem
This is % of his games in LF
2021- 27%
2022- 41%
2023- 35%

I could see him easily reaching 50% if he is healthy in 2024



I think that's fair. Who's playing LF and DH opposite him?
If =I'm answering honestly and giving the unpopular opinion...

Meyers
Julks
Leon

If not those three then they need to be dealt and cleared out of the way, I think at least 2 will be gone by opening day

Or...
Loperfido
Barber

If they make strides over the off season, into spring training and we see a possibility of production in the Majors
The Porkchop Express
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LMJ is one of my favorite Astros as a competitor, but the realistic viewpoint is that he's too brittle to be counted on as a member of the pitching staff anymore.

He turned 30 a month ago, pitched zero games in 2023, pitched 8 games in the 2022 regular season and then got shelled in the ALCS and the World Series, and missed almost all of the 2021 post-season while also injured.

He was really good in the 2021 regular season (3.16 ERA, 13-5), and he was healthy in the COVID season, but he also missed all of 2019. The guy has started 47 regular season games total since the end of 2018. That's fewer than 10 per season.

He's like a pitching George Springer - when he's locked in, he's fearsome, but he keeps getting hurt, so how can you rely on him?
MaxPower
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I tend to agree with Dana on the OF. Not that we couldn't use one but it's not the highest priority. Loperfido is your best big league ready prospect so I'm fine seeing if he can win a job in camp. Melton has more upside but might be ready by midseason. Either would also pair nicely with Jake, who should only start against lefties. I might change my mind if you trade Chas (since he's your best trade chip).

RP is top priority in free agency and then a backup catcher who hits lefties. Trades are too hard to predict but dumping either Montero or Abreu would be nice.
AustinCountyAg
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not sure if Dana had addressed it, but at this point why not just make LMJ your 7th inning guy when he returns (hopefully) next year? Not only with him coming out of the pen that means lees time building up as well as $ saved not going out and spending on a reliever.
Bert315
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AustinCountyAg said:

not sure if Dana had addressed it, but at this point why not just make LMJ your 7th inning guy when he returns (hopefully) next year? Not only with him coming out of the pen that means lees time building up as well as $ saved not going out and spending on a reliever.


This is where I am at. I think it would be good for him and give us a good pitcher who could come in during a BP game in the playoffs if needed.
MaxPower
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Agreed for both him and Garcia. Do they think RP or SP makes sense when they come back? Do they expect to get anything at all? Can you survive with your existing roster until they get back? I think one reliever, preferably a lefty, is a must. Beyond that he has to plan for the first half without those guys and second half with them.
Farmer1906
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Depth Chart

C - Diaz, Salazar
1B - Abreu, Diaz or Dubon or Kessinger
2B - Altuve, Dubon, Kessinger
SS - Pena, Dubon, Kessinger
3B - Bregman, Dubon, Kessinger
LF - Alvarez, Dubon or McCormick
CF - McCormick, Dubon, Meyers
RF - Tucker, McCormick, Meyers
DH - Alvarez, Whoever needs a rest, Diaz

Anyone in italics is a starter somewhere else. We need a DH if Yordan is you LFer unless you think you can get by with rotating other guys thru. That means more regular playing time for Dubon, Kessinger, Meyers, & Salavar. We need 1 more position player. We can call up someone (Julks, Loperfido, Leon, Wagner, Dezenzo) or sign someone.

SP1 - Valdez
SP2 - Verlander
SP3 - Javier
SP4 - Brown
SP5 - France
SP6/Swing - Urquity
Lefty Specialist - Sousa
Low Leverage - Martinez
Med Leverage - Graveman & Montero
High Leverage - Abreu & Pressly

We're 1 short here. We have tons of options in Mushinski, Gage, Kuhnel, Bielak, & Blanco. Or we can always add another arm from FA. Maybe its time to give someone else a shot like Ortega, Dubin, Gordan, or Arrighetti.

POSITION PLAYERS
I think we need another big-league body to help fill OF/DH. Ideally, someone who hits RHP. I don't see anyone else realistic to take jobs over Diaz, Abreu, Altuve, Pena, Bregman, Alvarez, Tucker, or McCormick.

STARTERS
I feel comfortable with who we have. We really need Javier to step up and JV not to get too old too quickly. It would be nice for Brown to take the next step too. With an army of guys, I don't think we need to add here. Especially with LMJ & Gariuca both expected back eventually. If you get to the deadline and they're not, then you can add.

BULLPEN
We have a solid bullpen with the guys already here. I would probably lean toward adding one more to keep the workload down, be able to handle injuries, and if its LHP then it'll help with matchups.

Based on Spotrac Market Value we could easily go get a combination of Brent Suter (1/3 M), Matt Moore (2/6.7 M), or Jake Diekman (not even high enough to be listed) AND Eddie Rosario (2/13 M), David Peralta (1/8.3 M), or Ben Gamel (2/4.4 M). All super cheap short-term deals that could fill a role that helps this team.

RC_57
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In sense, this move to being a GM was a promotion for Dana.

So maybe he's still feeling his way around at the job.

Kind of like Demeco now as a head coach. They still have to "learn" their way around the job.

(but yea, I'll take Luhnow back in an instant...)
Farmer1906
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The Porkchop Express said:

LMJ is one of my favorite Astros as a competitor, but the realistic viewpoint is that he's too brittle to be counted on as a member of the pitching staff anymore.

He turned 30 a month ago, pitched zero games in 2023, pitched 8 games in the 2022 regular season and then got shelled in the ALCS and the World Series, and missed almost all of the 2021 post-season while also injured.

He was really good in the 2021 regular season (3.16 ERA, 13-5), and he was healthy in the COVID season, but he also missed all of 2019. The guy has started 47 regular season games total since the end of 2018. That's fewer than 10 per season.

He's like a pitching George Springer - when he's locked in, he's fearsome, but he keeps getting hurt, so how can you rely on him?
I agree with this. From 2018 to 2024 he has had 2 injuries. In 2019 it was the UCL/Tommy John which he tried to pitch thru to help the 2018 team make a run. If he shuts it down he's potentially back late 2019. He had the surgery and was fully healthy in 2020 and most of 2021 until the end of the ALDS.

He messed up his flexor tendon / had a bone spur (not sure the the bone spur was present then or if it developed during rehab). He tried to rehab in 2022 and came back pretty damn good in his short stint. The rehab obviously didn't work as he dealt with the same issues starting in 2023. He eventually shut it down and got surgery. The doctors were just in his arm and saw the condition (good) of his UCL. Now the flexor tendon is good and the bone spur is gone.

I think it's okay to assume that this time he's coming back in a healthy state. Most pitchers are ticking time bombs in general, so another injury is not off the table. I think he's going to surprise a few with the finish of his Astro contract ('24-'26).
agproducer
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Maybe it's time to let the organizational OFs (Julks, Leon and others) fight for that last spot. If they fail by deadline, make a minor trade.

Leon has an OPS around .775-.800 at SL. He just strikes out a LOT. He has the tools and was a fairly big international signing. It could be an interesting ST.
Beat40
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Farmer1906 said:



BULLPEN
We have a solid bullpen with the guys already here. I would probably lean toward adding one more to keep the workload down, be able to handle injuries, and if its LHP then it'll help with matchups.

Based on Spotrac Market Value we could easily go get a combination of Brent Suter (1/3 M), Matt Moore (2/6.7 M), or Jake Diekman (not even high enough to be listed) AND Eddie Rosario (2/13 M), David Peralta (1/8.3 M), or Ben Gamel (2/4.4 M). All super cheap short-term deals that could fill a role that helps this team.


Diekman is a guy I've wanted for the Astros bullpen for a long time. Guy is very solid LHP.
Farmer1906
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agproducer said:

Maybe it's time to let the organizational OFs (Julks, Leon and others) fight for that last spot. If they fail by deadline, make a minor trade.

Leon has an OPS around .775-.800 at SL. He just strikes out a LOT. He has the tools and was a fairly big international signing. It could be an interesting ST.
He's got over 1100 PAs in AAA. Overall, he's been fairly average. He's heading into his age 26 year. I don't think he's worthy of a shot.

Julks got his shot and was fine. Not someone you want playing a lot.

Our best AAA player last year was Jon Singleton. Julks and Kessinger were fine. Outside of that, no one stood out.

If you drop down to AA we have some names to watch out for. Loperfido, Wagner, Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Barber, & Corona. I don't think they're ready yet.
BadAggie
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Ag_07 said:

BadAggie said:

spadilly said:

Good grief. We're going to screw this up, aren't we.





Again....Care to place a wager on this?


I'll wager ten Aggie Bucks, lol you need to have your addiction checked
agproducer
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Farmer1906 said:

agproducer said:

Maybe it's time to let the organizational OFs (Julks, Leon and others) fight for that last spot. If they fail by deadline, make a minor trade.

Leon has an OPS around .775-.800 at SL. He just strikes out a LOT. He has the tools and was a fairly big international signing. It could be an interesting ST.
He's got over 1100 PAs in AAA. Overall, he's been fairly average. He's heading into his age 26 year. I don't think he's worthy of a shot.

Julks got his shot and was fine. Not someone you want playing a lot.

Our best AAA player last year was Jon Singleton. Julks and Kessinger were fine. Outside of that, no one stood out.

If you drop down to AA we have some names to watch out for. Loperfido, Wagner, Whitcomb, Dezenzo, Barber, & Corona. I don't think they're ready yet.
I think you have to see exactly what you have in Leon. The other tools are just too good to ignore (arm, glove, speed on the bases).

If he comes up and you get more of the same, then it is time to look at him as organizational depth. That's how I look at Julks and Kessinger. They are organizational filler.

The AA guys aren't ready yet.
texasaggie2015
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I would lessen my expectations for Leon. There's a reason he hasn't been called up or used as a trade piece.
superaggie73
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texasaggie2015 said:

I would lessen my expectations for Leon. There's a reason he hasn't been called up or used as a trade piece.


I'm half joking, but Arozorena and Adolis Garcia were in the same boat until they changed their "diet". Maybe we just need to do the same for Leon.
Ag_07
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superaggie73 said:

texasaggie2015 said:

I would lessen my expectations for Leon. There's a reason he hasn't been called up or used as a trade piece.


I'm half joking, but Arozorena and Adolis Garcia were in the same boat


Up until this point in your post I thought this was going on a completely different direction.
agproducer
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texasaggie2015 said:

I would lessen my expectations for Leon. There's a reason he hasn't been called up or used as a trade piece.
Good insight. OK.
Lonestar_Ag09
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texasaggie2015 said:

I would lessen my expectations for Leon. There's a reason he hasn't been called up or used as a trade piece.
im in complete agreement that's why I said just give him a shot and if it fails cut him loose and move on
Farmer1906
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I'm here for it.
EastCoastAgNc
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n_touch
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EastCoastAgNc said:




Is there anyone he does not represent?
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