***Official Houston Astros 2023-24 Offseason Thread*** [Staff Warning - OP]

1,023,188 Views | 11245 Replies | Last: 10 mo ago by Lonestar_Ag09
Farmer1906
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MaxPower said:

Saw another site speculate the Brewers could trade Peralta. Maybe if we would take on Yelich's contract we wouldn't have to give up great prospects. Seems like the ultimate all in move if Crane is willing to go into luxury tax territory.
Why would they trade Peralta? He's making 5.5 M in 24 with 2 club options of 8 M in 25 and 26?
Farmer1906
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HarryRocket said:

Farmer1906 said:

HarryRocket said:

Then the Rangers are adding Degrom.

History of injury is concerning.

I'm coming from a standpoint of not leaving things to chance. That's why I sign Bauer. He's insurance for
So many uncertainties while we're in a historic run
Apply the same logic.


Quote:

LMJ? I wouldn't rely on him to have a snack day for my kids soccer team
deGrom 44 starts from 2020 to 2023.
McCullers 47 starts from 2020 to 2023.

Best case for deGrom is Aug 2024 with a chance he misses all of 2024.




That's exactly why I mentioned DeGrom.

Relying on "getting healthy" is a risky game.
But you said the Rangers are trending up. deGrom is a risk. Sherzer is declining. Monty is gone. Their SP wasn't as good as ours last year. They only made the final WC spot. Odds are they miss the postseason before us.
SpaceCityAg05
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Agreed. I thought it was Woodruff that might be on the block for MIL, not Peralta.
tjack16
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So what would yall give this season overall (regular + postseason)grade wise?

Offense: B-
Starting Pitching: C+ or B-
Bullpen: A-
Defense: C+
Overall: B or B-

Going from 106-56 to 90-72 with mostly the same roster is pretty wild to me. You could say injuries were the reason but post-all star break we were pretty much as healthy as we could get and still were winning at a 91 game clip the final 3 months.

Too much inconsistency in the lineup and starting rotation. One week we looked like world beaters, the next we would look like the 2012 Astros.
HarryRocket
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Farmer1906 said:

HarryRocket said:

Farmer1906 said:

HarryRocket said:

Then the Rangers are adding Degrom.

History of injury is concerning.

I'm coming from a standpoint of not leaving things to chance. That's why I sign Bauer. He's insurance for
So many uncertainties while we're in a historic run
Apply the same logic.


Quote:

LMJ? I wouldn't rely on him to have a snack day for my kids soccer team
deGrom 44 starts from 2020 to 2023.
McCullers 47 starts from 2020 to 2023.

Best case for deGrom is Aug 2024 with a chance he misses all of 2024.




That's exactly why I mentioned DeGrom.

Relying on "getting healthy" is a risky game.
But you said the Rangers are trending up. deGrom is a risk. Sherzer is declining. Monty is gone. Their SP wasn't as good as ours last year. They only made the final WC spot. Odds are they miss the postseason before us.


Can't argue this. You're right
tjack16
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I really hope the Rangers do like the Royals, Cubs and nationals did which was win the World Series finally, get content with the win, and suck again.
htxag09
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B- seems pretty harsh for a team that made the ALCS….

And as healthy as we were going to get still means missing 2 starters, one being one of the aces coming into the year.
SpaceCityAg05
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Strangely enough, I still Seattle as a bigger threat from a long term planning standpoint. Their pitching and youth gives them a long term foundation and I think they will try to aggressively add in FA.

The Rangers are quite literally a wildcard. Their roster construction makes them highly dangerous when healthy and hot, but a lot of their pieces are injury prone and/or streaky. They are equally likely to win 85 or less and miss the postseason than they are to win 100.
irish pete ag06
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Farmer1906 said:

HarryRocket said:

Farmer1906 said:

HarryRocket said:

Then the Rangers are adding Degrom.

History of injury is concerning.

I'm coming from a standpoint of not leaving things to chance. That's why I sign Bauer. He's insurance for
So many uncertainties while we're in a historic run
Apply the same logic.


Quote:

LMJ? I wouldn't rely on him to have a snack day for my kids soccer team
deGrom 44 starts from 2020 to 2023.
McCullers 47 starts from 2020 to 2023.

Best case for deGrom is Aug 2024 with a chance he misses all of 2024.




That's exactly why I mentioned DeGrom.

Relying on "getting healthy" is a risky game.
But you said the Rangers are trending up. deGrom is a risk. Sherzer is declining. Monty is gone. Their SP wasn't as good as ours last year. They only made the final WC spot. Odds are they miss the postseason before us.


The idea that the Rangers are young is an absolute fallacy. Their average age is almost identical to the Astros. They are losing more through free agency.
tjack16
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htxag09 said:

B- seems pretty harsh for a team that made the ALCS….

And as healthy as we were going to get still means missing 2 starters, one being one of the aces coming into the year.


I mean we had the 6th best record in baseball (tied with the Phillies and Rangers) and got a really favorable ALDS matchup.

I'm grading the entire 162 game season. Which we all agree was entirely too inconsistent. So if one week you play like an A team and the next you play like a C/D team, that averages out to a B or B-

I guarantee you if you gave the team an overall grade month by month you'd also give them an average of a B- or a B
Farmer1906
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irish pete ag06 said:

Farmer1906 said:

HarryRocket said:

Farmer1906 said:

HarryRocket said:

Then the Rangers are adding Degrom.

History of injury is concerning.

I'm coming from a standpoint of not leaving things to chance. That's why I sign Bauer. He's insurance for
So many uncertainties while we're in a historic run
Apply the same logic.


Quote:

LMJ? I wouldn't rely on him to have a snack day for my kids soccer team
deGrom 44 starts from 2020 to 2023.
McCullers 47 starts from 2020 to 2023.

Best case for deGrom is Aug 2024 with a chance he misses all of 2024.




That's exactly why I mentioned DeGrom.

Relying on "getting healthy" is a risky game.
But you said the Rangers are trending up. deGrom is a risk. Sherzer is declining. Monty is gone. Their SP wasn't as good as ours last year. They only made the final WC spot. Odds are they miss the postseason before us.


The idea that the Rangers are young is an absolute fallacy. Their average age is almost identical to the Astros. They are losing more through free agency.
I did that review midseason and they were slightly older, but it was close. We shed Brantly & Maldy so we should be a little younger.

I do like the Rangers position player talent coming up. I just don't trust their pitching. They better get ready to spend on Monty, Snell, Yamamoto, and bullpen help too. No way they'll be able to string together the run they did again.
Farmer1906
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SpaceCityAg05 said:

Strangely enough, I still Seattle as a bigger threat from a long term planning standpoint. Their pitching and youth gives them a long term foundation and I think they will try to aggressively add in FA.

The Rangers are quite literally a wildcard. Their roster construction makes them highly dangerous when healthy and hot, but a lot of their pieces are injury prone and/or streaky. They are equally likely to win 85 or less and miss the postseason than they are to win 100.
Short term, I think the Rangers will be back next year. Over the next 3-4 years, I have high expectations for Seattle.
Farmer1906
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tjack16 said:

So what would yall give this season overall (regular + postseason)grade wise?

Offense: B-
Starting Pitching: C+ or B-
Bullpen: A-
Defense: C+
Overall: B or B-

Going from 106-56 to 90-72 with mostly the same roster is pretty wild to me. You could say injuries were the reason but post-all star break we were pretty much as healthy as we could get and still were winning at a 91 game clip the final 3 months.

Too much inconsistency in the lineup and starting rotation. One week we looked like world beaters, the next we would look like the 2012 Astros.


You'll thank me later.
spadilly
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S
AustinCountyAg
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tjack16 said:

So what would yall give this season overall (regular + postseason)grade wise?

Offense: B-
Starting Pitching: C+ or B-
Bullpen: A-
Defense: C+
Overall: B or B-

Going from 106-56 to 90-72 with mostly the same roster is pretty wild to me. You could say injuries were the reason but post-all star break we were pretty much as healthy as we could get and still were winning at a 91 game clip the final 3 months.

Too much inconsistency in the lineup and starting rotation. One week we looked like world beaters, the next we would look like the 2012 Astros.
one must not forget that with schedule change not as many games to beat up on A's, Angels, etc.

Farmer1906
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Athletic's Contract Predictions:


Quote:

1. Shohei Ohtani, RHP/DH
Best fits: Dodgers, Rangers, Mariners, Mets, Red Sox, Padres, Giants, Cubs, Phillies, Blue Jays
Contract prediction: Ten years, $477 million with incentives and escalators that take the deal to more than half a billion dollars

2. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP
Best fits: Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals, Giants, Red Sox, Cubs
Contract prediction: Seven years, $211 million

3. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Best fits: Rangers, Cardinals, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Phillies, Orioles
Contract prediction: Five years, $127 million

4. Aaron Nola, RHP
Best fits: Phillies, Red Sox, Orioles, Giants, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs
Contract prediction: Five years, $125 million

5. Blake Snell, LHP
Best fits: Cardinals, Red Sox, Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Padres
Contract prediction: Five years, $122 million

6. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B
Best fits: Cubs, Giants, Angels, Mariners, Guardians, Blue Jays, Yankees
Contract prediction: Six years, $144 million

7. Matt Chapman, 3B
Best fits: Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, Tigers
Contract prediction: Six years, $127 million

8. Josh Hader, LHP
Best fits: Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Angels, Rangers
Contract prediction: Three years, $67 million

9. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
Best fits: Dodgers, Rangers, or retirement
Contract prediction: One year, $22 million (not happening with the surgery)

10. Sonny Gray, RHP
Best fits: Twins, Rockies, Giants, Cardinals, Orioles, Angels, Braves
Contract prediction: Three years, $64 million

11. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP (opt-out clause)
Best fits: Tigers, Orioles, Cardinals, Reds
Contract prediction: Five years, $90 million

12. Michael Wacha, RHP
Best fits: Padres, Giants, Cardinals, Cubs
Contract prediction: Two years, $32 million (Padres exercise their team options)

13. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Best fits: Rays, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Giants, Orioles, Cardinals, Red Sox, Braves
Contract prediction:
Two years, $24 million (with an opt out after the first year)

14. Marcus Stroman, RHP (opt-out clause)
Best fits: Cubs
Contract prediction: Opts into his player option (one year, $21 million)

15. Seth Lugo, RHP
Best fits: Padres, Cardinals, Angels, Tigers, Royals
Contract prediction: Two years, $20 million
Astros are not a fit, not even with Hader. This is the offseason of SP. Lots of good options to help out a rotation.

Other notable names:



Quote:

23. Aroldis Chapman, LHP
Best fits: Rangers, Astros
Contract prediction: Two years, $12 million with incentives
LOL no!


Quote:

30. Jordan Hicks, RHP
Best fits: Astros, Rangers, Blue Jays, Yankees, Braves, Padres, Dodgers
Contract prediction: Three years, $30 million
Do we need another hard-throwing righty? Maybe not, but I will take it! That's less than Montero money.

No others linked to the Astros.

How about this for long term solution for another left handed bat?


Quote:

37. Jung-hoo Lee, CF
Age: 25
B: L T: R HT: 6-1 WT: 172
2023 (Kiwoom Heroes, KBO): Stats
Agent: Boras Corporation
Major-league scouts are split on Jung-hoo Lee's hit tool: Some believe he'll hit right out of the gate; others think he'll have more of a learning curve and could take a year or two to adjust to MLB pitching. Some believe he'll be a .270 type hitter; others envision a .300 hitter. The best part of Lee's hit tool is his contact rate and ability to draw walks. (He had more walks than strikeouts over seven seasons in the KBO.) He's a plus center fielder with plus range and a strong arm. He gets good jumps on balls and takes good routes. He's an above-average runner with long strides but is not a base-stealing threat. He doesn't have a lot of power. He fractured his ankle in July and missed the rest of the season, apart from one at-bat in his farewell to Heroes fans.
Best fits: Giants, Guardians, Blue Jays, Tigers
Contract prediction: No estimate at this time.

Plus defender. Can play anywhere in the OF. Will be a longer-term deal (he's only 25). hat frees us up to move someone in the minors. Lefty bat. New market for the Astros. Why not?

Farmer1906
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Different Writer's Athletic Projections for Pitchers:

Top 6:

Quote:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 25 - Projection: Seven years, $203 million
Aaron Nola, 31 - Projection: Six years, $180 million
Jordan Montgomery - Projection: Five years, $105 million
Blake Snell, 31 - Projection: Five years, $135 million
Sonny Gray, 34 - Projection: Three years, $72 million
Josh Hader, 30 - Projection: Four years, $80 million

Some of the relief arms:


Quote:

Robert Stephenson, 31 - Projection: Three years, $30 million
Jordan Hicks, 27 - Projection: Four years, $36 million
Craig Kimbrel, 36 - Projection: One year, $16 million

EastCoastAgNc
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I know some have mentioned Hader as a target for the Astros, but I'm not sure how that makes sense. He's a bit of a diva. Didn't he refuse to come in a critical game in San Diego because they wanted more than 3 outs from him? Also, we already have a closer. I don't think he would be interested in becoming a setup guy. I know he's good, just doesn't seem like a good fit. Also he'll be very expensive and we are very close to the luxury tax already.
scd88
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Just poking a little fun at our new WS champion neighbors courtesy of esd19...

Farmer1906
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Now Position Players

Top 7:

Quote:

Shohei Ohtani, 29 - Projection: 12 years, $520 million
Cody Bellinger, 28 - Projection: Six years, $162 million
Matt Chapman, 31 - Projection: Five years, $95 million
Teoscar Hernndez, 31 - Projection: Four years, $80 million
Jeimer Candelario, 30 - Projection: Four years, $70 million
Jung Hoo Lee, 25 - Projection: Four years, $56 million
Lourdes Gurriel Jr., 30 - Projection: Four years, $56 million

I know it's kind of out of LF, but I am starting to like the idea of Jung Hoo Lee. 56 M isn't crazy for someone so young. You would just have to trust he translates to MLB. I have no idea if he will, but he seems ideal (lefty, doesn't break bank, not an old guy who will break down, gets on base)

Can we punt on Abreu and make this deal?

Quote:

Rhys Hoskins, 31 - Projection: One year, $16.5 million

I don't like getting older, but this could be a nice cheap option, especially if it's only 1 year instead of two.

Quote:

Jason Heyward, 36 - Projection: Two years, $21 million

Farmer1906
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EastCoastAgNc said:

I know some have mentioned Hader as a target for the Astros, but I'm not sure how that makes sense. He's a bit of a diva. Didn't he refuse to come in a critical game in San Diego because they wanted more than 3 outs from him? Also, we already have a closer. I don't think he would be interested in becoming a setup guy. I know he's good, just doesn't seem like a good fit. Also he'll be very expensive and we are very close to the luxury tax already.
1. He wasn't asked to come in, I don't think. The manager didn't put him in because he was reluctant to come in in these situations. He had multiple 4-out saves in the 2022 postseason.

2. It wasn't a critical game. The Padres were 5.0 games out of the last WC needing to jump 4 other teams with 6 games left. They were toast.

3. I think he's the name everyone wants because he's the best. But we can do a combo of someone like Moore & Suter and still have a big impact. It just isn't as sexy.
Wabs
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I think Jung Ho Lee would be a GREAT get. Yes, some questions with translating to MLB. But it would be nice to have left hand bat with speed to leadoff, plus it appears he's a contact guy that doesn't K alot. Interesting indeed.
Ag_07
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So I was all for Bauer until someone posted that video laying out his issues over the last couple years. It's a long list. Dude is a cancer.

Plus what really matters...He hasn't been good in a while. His stint in Japan did not go well at all.

Pass
tjack16
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Wabs said:

I think Jung Ho Lee would be a GREAT get. Yes, some questions with translating to MLB. But it would be nice to have left hand bat with speed to leadoff, plus it appears he's a contact guy that doesn't K alot. Interesting indeed.


I'd love it. The position players seem to translate well to MLB from the KBO. Would be nice to have basically a younger and more athletic michael Brantley
Prosperdick
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Apparently Seager took a pot shot at us during their time on the podium. I have no idea what he said but my Dallas buddies in their circle jerk chat mentioned it. I just asked then how much real estate we take up in their heads. Also I reminded them how many times we mentioned the rangers during our 2017 and 2022 celebrations…zero. What pathetic losers.
SECcess12
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I don't have a problem with it. Those players are allowed to have some fun. We probably would have done something similar had we finished them off.
Farmer1906
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It popped up on my feed. He used the Bregman (Kanye) line "I guess we'll never know". No one was wondering what would happen if the Rangers didn't win the WS this year. Literally every year in the history of the earth before this year, the Rangers didn't win the WS.
texasaggie2015
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Prosperdick
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Farmer1906 said:

It popped up on my feed. He used the Bregman (Kanye) line "I guess we'll never know". No one was wondering what would happen if the Rangers didn't win the WS this year. Literally every year in the history of the earth before this year, the Rangers didn't win the WS.

I figured it was some cheating pot shot but yeah, "I guess we'll never know" makes absolutely no sense. If the rangers had been to 7 ALCS's in a row it definitely would resonate. Whatever, rent free.
n_touch
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Prosperdick said:

Apparently Seager took a pot shot at us during their time on the podium. I have no idea what he said but my Dallas buddies in their circle jerk chat mentioned it. I just asked then how much real estate we take up in their heads. Also I reminded them how many times we mentioned the rangers during our 2017 and 2022 celebrations…zero. What pathetic losers.
lol...the things that get people riled up. If you talk crap you better expect others will talk it back. Seager earned the right. He was solid throughout the playoffs.
FrioAg 00
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Gosh I'm looking forward to their immediate return to missing the playoffs next year.
Farmer1906
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n_touch said:

Prosperdick said:

Apparently Seager took a pot shot at us during their time on the podium. I have no idea what he said but my Dallas buddies in their circle jerk chat mentioned it. I just asked then how much real estate we take up in their heads. Also I reminded them how many times we mentioned the rangers during our 2017 and 2022 celebrations…zero. What pathetic losers.
lol...the things that get people riled up. If you talk crap you better expect others will talk it back. Seager earned the right. He was solid throughout the playoffs.


I agree but make sense. That's all I'm asking.
Farmer1906
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texasaggie2015 said:




Starter or reliever. He's been a set up man in Japan for the last few seasons. He was a starter back in Cuba. If the top range of 70 M, that ain't reliever money unless you're the best of the best.

Got any more info?
MaxPower
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I asked about him a few days ago but yes has upside. Think you try him as a starter with a floor of a power bullpen arm. He has 4 pitches but control is what will determine whether he can start. Might be best in the pen to start 2024 then play with him as a starter in 2025 after he knocks off the rust.
Wabs
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Meh....let the Rangers have fun. They earned it and have been waiting for it for...well forever. This all dies down next week as everyone in MLB starts focusing on the offseason, hot stove, winter meetings, etc. Obviously, this is a huge offseason for us and will give us some real insight into Dana Brown and what direction he wants to go. I always count the days until Spring Training, but this year especially. The way we went out has me really, really looking forward to next year.
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