Here’s a pre-winter meetings mailbag. Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Joe Espada’s managing style, Yainer Diaz and Martín Maldonado all among the topics discussed - https://t.co/ikHQnPpc9p

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) December 1, 2023

redline248 said:

---

I honestly have no clue on the inner workings of the FO, but is it possible there are some folks at lower pay titles who are just as good as the people leaving?

I mean, it's not like the Braves were anti analytics when Brown was there...

---

I wish that was the case. They've brought in some good people but lost some really key pieces.

Dodgers, Cubs, Blue Jays and Angels are among the teams still bidding on Shohei Ohtani while the Mets, Rangers and Red Sox have turned their attention to other players, per @JeffPassan pic.twitter.com/yHOYR8qRI3

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) December 1, 2023

Passan saying that the Guardians are exploring trading Clase, making it sound like that may be more likely than Bieber.

He says they have a replacement in Barlow. 1 year of Barlow =/= 4 years of Clase. They better know what they're doing & get a HUGE return if they do it pic.twitter.com/cwhaVI8JAR

— Quincy Wheeler (@QuincyWheeler1) December 1, 2023

Farmer1906 said:

---

I am out on trading for or buying big-name relievers. We need to be smart and acquire them on the cheap.

---

This is a sound strategy. The vast majority of relievers aren't consistent year over year or over a multi year window. I think the trick is to grab a guy who you think has a chance to be hot and ride him while you can. Once you have a Pressly who you know has repeated it year over year then that's the one you keep. And those guys are few and far between.

Examples #836 and 837 - Devo and Peacock. All star one season to journeyman 2 years later.

Example #838 - Montero

I really worry about Hector. Was he in his hot window or is that repeatable?

Neris has over 500 innings out of the bullpen and the majority of those are solid. His 2023 is kind of an outlier. His FIP & xERA are in line with the rest of his career. The ERA is way down. Strangely enough, the xFIP is up. I'd say there is a solid chance Neris continues on his career track (mid 3 ERA, FIP xFIP) and never sniffs sub 2 ERA again.

Farmer1906 said:

---

PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

No, we're not equipped to win a title without Framber in 24 and 25. Unless we're going to go sign Yamamoto, Snell, or Monty. Or maybe trade for Cease.

---

Keep Framber and sign Yamamoto while extending Tuck

---

Just a 500 M commitment.

---

Worked for the Rangers

AgLA06 said:

---

PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

---

MaxPower said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

All-Star, AL RBI Leader, Silver Slugger, King. pic.twitter.com/ZalHj8Zqr4

— Houston Astros (@astros) November 30, 2023

Announce the 12/264 M extension.

---

If Crane said he will sign off but you have to trade Framber would you do it?

---

Crane needs to dig into them damn pockets and stop being so cheap.

---

Maybe you should take a look at reality first.

We have the 4th highest payroll in MLB for 2024. This isn't Drayton and at some points our fans have to get a clue.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

---

ORRR you should look beyond 2024 which is what is being talked about. Bregman and Altuve need to be locked up IMHO. That number you share in that link includes estimated Arb and Pre-Arb salaries in addition to Greinke deferred $12.5mm. So in reality, post 2024 is very low as we sit now.

So yes, I stand by my comment of Crane needing to dig into those pockets or else big bro up north will walk away as well as other teams for a while. Spending now will be cheaper than 5 years from now.

PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

---

AgLA06 said:

---

PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

---

MaxPower said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

All-Star, AL RBI Leader, Silver Slugger, King. pic.twitter.com/ZalHj8Zqr4

— Houston Astros (@astros) November 30, 2023

Announce the 12/264 M extension.

---

If Crane said he will sign off but you have to trade Framber would you do it?

---

Crane needs to dig into them damn pockets and stop being so cheap.

---

Maybe you should take a look at reality first.

We have the 4th highest payroll in MLB for 2024. This isn't Drayton and at some points our fans have to get a clue.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

---

ORRR you should look beyond 2024 which is what is being talked about. Bregman and Altuve need to be locked up IMHO. That number you share in that link includes estimated Arb and Pre-Arb salaries in addition to Greinke deferred $12.5mm. So in reality, post 2024 is very low as we sit now.

So yes, I stand by my comment of Crane needing to dig into those pockets or else big bro up north will walk away as well as other teams for a while. Spending now will be cheaper than 5 years from now.

---

I looked at it in a post earlier in the offseason. We have little room to sign anyone this year. Next year tons of money falls off between Bregman, Altuve, Graveman, & potentially Pressly & Verlander. We could have around 100 M between those 5 players. Arbitration will go up from ~38 to north of 50, maybe even 60. Even if Crane wanted to decrease payroll some, we'll still have a good 70 M to allocate.

Then again in 2026 we are out of the bad contracts of Montero, Abreu, and then arbitration runs out for Valde,z Tucker, & Urquidy. That is another ~60 M coming off the books.

Crane and Dana are going to be able to afford to extend someone(s) and/or add in FA.

AgLA06 said:

---

PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

---

MaxPower said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

All-Star, AL RBI Leader, Silver Slugger, King. pic.twitter.com/ZalHj8Zqr4

— Houston Astros (@astros) November 30, 2023

Announce the 12/264 M extension.

---

If Crane said he will sign off but you have to trade Framber would you do it?

---

Crane needs to dig into them damn pockets and stop being so cheap.

---

Maybe you should take a look at reality first.

We have the 4th highest payroll in MLB for 2024. This isn't Drayton and at some points our fans have to get a clue as to what Crane has done financially for the club and for the foundations monetarily.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

I don't have time to go grab all the links, but between renovating Memorial and keeping the Houston Open in town, spending to keep our stars, getting the juice bock maintained, and the new commercial projects, he's done more than open up the pocket book.

---

I am not one to complain about Crane spending/not spending. But most of those things you listed are investments that he is expecting to earn a big return on.

I know most of the focus has been on Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, & Valdez, but I think we need to also focus on locking up guys early. The Brewers just did it with a minor leaguer. Tampa did it with the pedo (oops). Mariners did it with Julio. Braves have done it multiple times (Riley, Acuna, etc).

If we can tack one 1-2 years and maybe some club options ears after that for Abreu & Diaz, I think it could go a long way in keeping this team good in the long run. It should be easier to do it now than once their closer to FA like we let Tucker & Valdez get to.

And the Astros are not?

Ag_07 said:

---

And the Astros are not?

---

Not individual players per se.

Fangraphs 2024 ZIPS Projections

Quote:

---

So what does it all sum up to? I think the Braves will have a better projection when all is said and done, but the Astros will likely be the favorite in the AL West, despite the Rangers, and should project safely north of 90 wins unless something goes seriously wrong this winter.

---

Coaching staff is 🔒in.

Omar López has been promoted to Bench Coach, we welcome back Dave Clark as our First Base Coach, and Jason Bell becomes our Quality Assurance Coach! pic.twitter.com/3BNvhrnaJm

— Houston Astros (@astros) December 1, 2023

Farmer1906 said:

---

AgLA06 said:

---

PrestigeWorldwideAg12 said:

---

MaxPower said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

All-Star, AL RBI Leader, Silver Slugger, King. pic.twitter.com/ZalHj8Zqr4

— Houston Astros (@astros) November 30, 2023

Announce the 12/264 M extension.

---

If Crane said he will sign off but you have to trade Framber would you do it?

---

Crane needs to dig into them damn pockets and stop being so cheap.

---

Maybe you should take a look at reality first.

We have the 4th highest payroll in MLB for 2024. This isn't Drayton and at some points our fans have to get a clue as to what Crane has done financially for the club and for the foundations monetarily.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/

I don't have time to go grab all the links, but between renovating Memorial and keeping the Houston Open in town, spending to keep our stars, getting the juice bock maintained, and the new commercial projects, he's done more than open up the pocket book.

---

I am not one to complain about Crane spending/not spending. But most of those things you listed are investments that he is expecting to earn a big return on.

---

So are contracts on players.

Hot stove talk

I should say King plus as many as six prospects and money for Soto and Grisham. https://t.co/XPw8deJIEm

— Andy Martino (@martinonyc) December 1, 2023

Yankees don't have the balls to make trades like this anymore.

Farmer1906 said:

---

Yankees don't have the balls to make trades like this anymore.

---

Even if they did, would it be a good idea? Trade all that away for a guy who has been wildly inconsistent over the last year, and you're only getting him for 1 season? I wouldn't trade all that either.

EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Yankees don't have the balls to make trades like this anymore.

---

Even if they did, would it be a good idea? Trade all that away for a guy who has been wildly inconsistent over the last year, and you're only getting him for 1 season? I wouldn't trade all that either.

---

He might be the difference in October baseball for them. He might hit 40 bombs in that ballpark with a 450 OBP.

Farmer1906 said:

---

EastCoastAgNc said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

Yankees don't have the balls to make trades like this anymore.

---

Even if they did, would it be a good idea? Trade all that away for a guy who has been wildly inconsistent over the last year, and you're only getting him for 1 season? I wouldn't trade all that either.

---

He might be the difference in October baseball for them. He might hit 40 bombs in that ballpark with a 450 OBP.

---

Man, I think he would ball out under the big lights too.

Dave Clark back on the coaching staff?

oh boy, keep him at first base please

he made a career at third base giving Michael Bourn the stop sign time after time

W said:

---

Dave Clark back on the coaching staff?

oh boy, keep him at first base please

he made a career at third base giving Michael Bourn the stop sign time after time

---

I hadn't heard that name in a while. We traded Brad Lidge and Eric Bruntlett for him, a nobody, and a 1 year relief pitcher.

Farmer1906 said:

---

I know most of the focus has been on Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, & Valdez, but I think we need to also focus on locking up guys early. The Brewers just did it with a minor leaguer. Tampa did it with the pedo (oops). Mariners did it with Julio. Braves have done it multiple times (Riley, Acuna, etc).

If we can tack one 1-2 years and maybe some club options ears after that for Abreu & Diaz, I think it could go a long way in keeping this team good in the long run. It should be easier to do it now than once their closer to FA like we let Tucker & Valdez get to.

---

I'm not too interested in a long-term deal for a catcher. If I'm locking up a young guy it's probably Hunter Brown. Buying low a bit for ace upside.

MaxPower said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

I know most of the focus has been on Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, & Valdez, but I think we need to also focus on locking up guys early. The Brewers just did it with a minor leaguer. Tampa did it with the pedo (oops). Mariners did it with Julio. Braves have done it multiple times (Riley, Acuna, etc).

If we can tack one 1-2 years and maybe some club options ears after that for Abreu & Diaz, I think it could go a long way in keeping this team good in the long run. It should be easier to do it now than once their closer to FA like we let Tucker & Valdez get to.

---

I'm not too interested in a long-term deal for a catcher. If I'm locking up a young guy it's probably Hunter Brown. Buying low a bit for ace upside.

---

What the reason to not do that for catcher? Just curious.

Farmer1906 said:

---

MaxPower said:

---

Farmer1906 said:

---

I know most of the focus has been on Bregman, Altuve, Tucker, & Valdez, but I think we need to also focus on locking up guys early. The Brewers just did it with a minor leaguer. Tampa did it with the pedo (oops). Mariners did it with Julio. Braves have done it multiple times (Riley, Acuna, etc).

If we can tack one 1-2 years and maybe some club options ears after that for Abreu & Diaz, I think it could go a long way in keeping this team good in the long run. It should be easier to do it now than once their closer to FA like we let Tucker & Valdez get to.

---

I'm not too interested in a long-term deal for a catcher. If I'm locking up a young guy it's probably Hunter Brown. Buying low a bit for ace upside.

---

What the reason to not do that for catcher? Just curious.

---

I can't speak for him, but they're known to have a short shelf life even for a league where the average career is just 5.5 years. All those innings, collisions, fouled balls lead to broken fingers and hip and knee problems. They come up lame first.

Outside of Piazza, Pudge, and Buster Posey, they tend to burn out quicker than a long contract can justify. Yadier Molina longevity is the exception, not the rule.

Maybe but the bat might last. Could be the next DH after Yordan leaves.

Yes, injuries and not just the time missed but how it impacts their effectiveness over time. The value of a DH who can hit vs a C who can hit are drastically different so trying to value a long-term deal baking in the possibility of a move to DH would be difficult. I mean if he'll sign a 10 year, $1M a year contract I'd do it but I don't see how it would work with a semi competent agent.