He literally said that in his post….

I agree with Fuzzy for the most part. In my biased eyes I think the rotation concerns are overblown. The rangers are basically throwing out the same rotation they had for the first 2/3s of last season. The bullpen was the biggest issue last season, converting under 50% of their save opportunities. We'll see if the additions and call ups have addressed that. Scherzer, Mahle and deGrom will basically be equivalent to trade deadline pieces, which will bolster the bullpen and rotation in the 2nd half.

I agree with you about the rotation concerns being overblown.

The wild card is going to be injuries. Gray tends to get blisters. Eovaldi was healthy last year and I hope he stays that way. Heaney and Dunning stayed healthy too. I just hope their luck remains. If not, we have to hope our depth gets us through.

If we get in the middle of the season and need help, I have no doubt CY will pull the trigger a la the trade for Chapman last year.

Beat40 said:

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Don't you guys realize how damn stupid and embarrassing it is that both the Astros and Rangers threads have to have warning on the first post stating that anyone not a fan of the team on that thread will get banned for a YEAR???? Adult men are being treated like 7 year olds.

I get that a lot of the reason this started was because of Astros fans trolling the Rangers thread over the years. After the warning was placed on the Rangers thread that any Astro fan would be banned for trolling the thread, I felt that was super reasonable.

The problem is, you guys then started thinking that a guy asking for food recommendations after the Astros beat you was trolling, flagging that post, and having it deleted. You also started flagging any actual reasonable post from an Astro fan as trolling and having all Astro posts on your thread deleted.

Mr. Gigem - I like to read y'all's thread to see what's up with the Rangers. You're complaining about having your discount code post flagged and deleted is EXACTLY how the Astros fans felt last year when innocuous posts were deleted on your thread.

Guys - texasaggie2015 accidentally posts a tweet about JV on the Ranger thread, realized he did it on accident, deleted it on his own and was banned for several days with a threat from moderation that his next post on the Ranger thread would be a season long ban.

Both Astros and Rangers fans need to grow the hell up. I like talking baseball and it's stupid I can't go to the Rangers thread to talk about your team with you if I wanted. This thread shouldn't need to exist.

Astros fans share just as much responsibility for the current state of things.

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Sounds like the blame is 90% Astro and 10% ranger actually. What about all those years the rangers were rebuilding and Astro fans would pretend to talk on the ranger thread than brag on the Astro thread about how they're tricking us and making us look dumb.

When did I complain about anything? You must have me confused with someone else.

Mr Gigem said:

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When did I complain about anything? You must have me confused with someone else.

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If you aren't complaining, you should. It's stupid your post was deleted. It's stupid you'd have the potential to post stuff like that while facing the possibility of a year long ban. That's the entire point.

I see it wasn't you complaining, but your brethren did. So, I guess I'm sorry.

I'm glad you don't care though.

The whole thing is just so ridiculous. Mr Gigem absolutely should be able to post the discount code on our thread without getting banned. I shouldn't have gotten a ban and threatened with a year long ban after posting JV news on their thread by mistake. Both things are true and I'm just using those two instances as an example since they're more recent.

I wholeheartedly believe that 90% of fans on both sides can agree that this has all gotten out of control.

That said, I'm glad this rivalry finally has meaning as both teams are contenders. It should be a fantastic year and I look forward to it.

Beat40 said:

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Mr Gigem said:

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When did I complain about anything? You must have me confused with someone else.

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If you aren't complaining, you should. It's stupid your post was deleted. It's stupid you'd have the potential to post stuff like that while facing the possibility of a year long ban. That's the entire point.

I see it wasn't you complaining, but your brethren did. So, I guess I'm sorry.

I'm glad you don't care though.

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I'm sorry this is all so upsetting to you. The mods have made the expectations abundantly clear to both sides. If you want to have a discussion about anything regarding the other team, just do it here. That's the point of this thread, and it will prevent any unnecessary flagging and potential bans.

I think your insight is really intriguing, and I'm still trying to figure out how you get the info you get. You called the JV trade like weeks in advance like you knew it was going down. That's dangerous. I like dangerous.

I can't say too much, but my previous job was pretty cool and I was really fortunate to make connections that I've stayed in contact with today.

Still haven't made it to the new ballpark up there. Really want to do that this year. Glad you guys have A/C now.

I think both Houston and Texas make the playoffs again this year. We'll see if we get another October rematch but I think we will

Seattle is the mystery team to me in the West. The pieces are there but could be like last year where they just missed out.

Mr Gigem said:

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Beat40 said:

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Mr Gigem said:

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When did I complain about anything? You must have me confused with someone else.

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If you aren't complaining, you should. It's stupid your post was deleted. It's stupid you'd have the potential to post stuff like that while facing the possibility of a year long ban. That's the entire point.

I see it wasn't you complaining, but your brethren did. So, I guess I'm sorry.

I'm glad you don't care though.

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I'm sorry this is all so upsetting to you. The mods have made the expectations abundantly clear to both sides. If you want to have a discussion about anything regarding the other team, just do it here. That's the point of this thread, and it will prevent any unnecessary flagging and potential bans.

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Hardly anyone looks at this thread, man.

The point is, that's stupid. I'm not so much upset as I am annoyed at how stupid and childish it all is. I'd rather post questions about your Rangers on your Ranger thread, where more eyes will see it than this thread, to get answers.

The mods have made it clear not to troll. I agree with that. However, non-troll posts are getting flagged and deleted as trolls, which now, as a result, season long bans will be doled out because posters don't want posters from other teams posting on their thread. Doesn't that seem absurd to you?

So instead of asking your Ranger brethren to not flag all posts from an Astros fan that is legitimate, and me asking my Astros brethren not to flag all posts from Rangers fans that are legitimate, you'd rather all of us look like children needing to have a safe space to talk about our respective teams together? You realize how stupid that is?

This thread is a result of both fans being overly sensitive and childish for flagging non-troll posts as trolls and the mods not wanting to sift through flagged posts to determine if they are trolls or not.

That's the point, sir. This thread shouldn't have reason for existing.

Mr Gigem said:

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I think your insight is really intriguing, and I'm still trying to figure out how you get the info you get. You called the JV trade like weeks in advance like you knew it was going down. That's dangerous. I like dangerous.

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You should be able to talk about this on the Astros thread.

I'm with you, this is all very lame. Simple discussion should be fine, and most of the rules are not even published so no one has any idea of the what or why behind the moderation. More unwritten rules around here than in baseball...

texasaggie2015 said:

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Still haven't made it to the new ballpark up there. Really want to do that this year. Glad you guys have A/C now.

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I'm planning on making it up for two different games, one with the family and one with another buddy or two. I'll try to hit you up when I figure them out!

Sounds good

So,

I posted this on the Rangers thread. IMO, Astros fans and the media are propagating a false narrative about the Rangers rotation.

Quote:

---

2023:
Eovaldi: 25GS, 3.63, 144.0, 132 SO
Dunning: 26GS, 3.70, 172.2, 140 SO
Jo Gray: 29GS, 4.12, 157.1, 142 SO
AHeaney: 28GS, 4.15, 147.1, 151 SO (34G)

Bradfrd: 8 GS, 5.30, 56.0, 51 SO (20G)

We return quit a bit. I include that to consdier, historical performance. All of these guys are helpful for '24. With the Rangers or as trade.

ST
RHP
Eovaldi (34): 3GS, 3.72, 9.2, 10 SO
Dunning (29): 3GS, 9.00, 6.0, 7 SO
Jo Gray (32): 1GS, 0.00, 3.0, 4 SO
LHP
AHeaney (33): 3GS, 3.60, 10.0, 12 SO
Bradfrd (26): 3GS, 2.45, 11.0, 9 SO (4G)

---

We return 122 GS out of 162 Games and our 4 Top SPs (measured in IP). Bradford had the #5 and there is no expectation, IMO, other than to stay healthy and keep the team in games. With those 5, if they remain healthy, we'll have more than enough SP regardless of Offense.

Eovaldi has taken many of our young pitchers and helped them.

Dunning has been working with Eovaldi on a variant of Eovaldi's splitter. Considered one of the nastiest . It won't be without its learning curve which is probably reflected in Dunning ST #s. Part of Dunning's demise at the end of the season was due to his changeup getting up in the 88-89 range and not having enough difference from his FB. That is part of the reason for the new pitch. Could be bumpy early with the new pitch, but the investment could pay off.

Jon Gray has been mostly a success. He is an injury risk. When the Ragners went after him as a FA with Colorado, the Rangers came to him with a plan they thought would elevate his status as a SP. He has publicly said that the Rangers came to him with the same plan he was headed and the fact they recognized what he did spoke highly about how they viewed him. Rangers see him as having the ability to be an Ace. His WS performance. Did I mention that? And stay healthy.

I see Heaney (L) as an Innings guy that can and is willing to work in the BP if necessary. This was critical in 2023 postseason and could be important as we start to bring guys back. He is a FA after 2023 and I wouldn't mind if the Rangers found him as a tradeable piece at the deadline. He is $13M in 2024.

Bradford (L) is a WIP. Just need him to roll out there and build confidence. If we can limit the negative impact in 2024 and chew innings, he'll be nice for 2025 or tradeable.

Lorenzen was a surprise addition and probably reflects the org's mentality that you can't have enough SP. Starting on the IL...he'll join the Active roster soon. He went 25GS, 153.0 IP, 4.18 ERA and 111 SO. He could be an Innings guy, or he could step up. He has stated he has a chip on his shoulder because of lack of interest from teams during the Off-season. I don't know if that elevates his game but seems like a solid 3/4 SP.

Next guy up is probably Urena. He is one of those guys that I'd consider a "Tampa Bay special." Once promising and successful SP fell on to hard times and then Tampa gets him and trades him mid-season as an Ace for great prospects. Just need him to buffer some of the young hopeful futures like White (Sucked at AAA, last night), Winn, Leiter, <every Rangers SP prospect> who seem to be just one more season away.

Now, when you consider Scherzer (target late May/early June), deGrom (July), and Mahle (late July/early Aug) on the 60, we have some arms that... even if they are not at the HoF level (Scherzer/deGrom) that add even more quality depth.

All of that considers our SP compared to the AL. All-in-all, I think we're as competitive as anyone else and likely have more upside when you consider how ST has gone for some teams.

Yanks lost Cole.
O's lost Bradish.
Astros without Verlander
Rays have had some SP problems.
Toroonto has had their problems.

Seattle is by-and-large the best rotation, IMO, going into the season. AL rotations in 2024 are weak compared to the NL.

Nah... maybe I should have been more specific.

Astros fans. And just repeating what they want to hear.

Somehow our lineup... Pitching and hitting are not very good, per media and Astris fans. Probably won't make the playoffs, if you listen to most. We won't be very good in '24. Just look past us.

Don't care. Won World Series and likely making a run in '24. But don't worry about us...

DallasAg 94 said:

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Nah... maybe I should have been more specific.

Astros fans. And just repeating what they want to hear.

Somehow our lineup... Pitching and hitting are not very good, per media and Astris fans. Probably won't make the playoffs, if you listen to most. We won't be very good in '24. Just look past us.

Don't care. Won World Series and likely making a run in '24. But don't worry about us...

---

We all hear what we want to hear from our critics. I was just poking fun at your faux pas leaving out a word. I've heard nothing but praise from the Rangers from the media, but the trend for the last 25 years has been no repeat champions so it's hard to blame them for not expecting a repeat.

DallasAg 94 said:

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So,

I posted this on the Rangers thread. IMO, Astros fans and the media are propagating a false narrative about the Rangers rotation.

Quote:

---

2023:
Eovaldi: 25GS, 3.63, 144.0, 132 SO
Dunning: 26GS, 3.70, 172.2, 140 SO
Jo Gray: 29GS, 4.12, 157.1, 142 SO
AHeaney: 28GS, 4.15, 147.1, 151 SO (34G)

Bradfrd: 8 GS, 5.30, 56.0, 51 SO (20G)

We return quit a bit. I include that to consdier, historical performance. All of these guys are helpful for '24. With the Rangers or as trade.

ST
RHP
Eovaldi (34): 3GS, 3.72, 9.2, 10 SO
Dunning (29): 3GS, 9.00, 6.0, 7 SO
Jo Gray (32): 1GS, 0.00, 3.0, 4 SO
LHP
AHeaney (33): 3GS, 3.60, 10.0, 12 SO
Bradfrd (26): 3GS, 2.45, 11.0, 9 SO (4G)

---

---

I appreciate the analysis and your support of your team.

But -- I don't believe it was false narrative. That being said -- Rangers fans should be optimistic.

Let's look at 2023 again. Projections are from Baseball Reference. For career averages, it's lifetime ERA, last three full seasons for innings and strikeouts.

Eovaldi: 25GS, 3.63, 144.0, 132 SO
Career Averages: 4.10, 145 (last 3 seasons), 145 SO (last 3 seasons)
Projection: 3.97, 143 IP, 136 SO

Eovaldi can be an innings-eater when healthy, but he's only thrown more than 140 innings 3 times in a 13-year career. His IP is higher than 140 for the last three seasons because he threw 182 for Boston in 2021. His career ERA is 4.10. His ERA for a season has only been under 3.63 twice in his career. His projections are close to last year with a closer-to-career average ERA.

Dunning: 26GS, 3.70, 172.2, 140 SO
Career Averages: 4.16 ERA, 147 (3 full seasons), 130 (3 full seasons)
Projection: 4.15, 156, 138 SO

Dunning had a career-high in innings last year. His ERA was a career low as well. K numbers are expected to stay the same, but there should be some regression.

Jon Gray: 29GS, 4.12, 157.1, 142 SO
Career Averages: 4.47, 131 IP, 144 SO
Projection: 4.29, 151, 146

Gray has been over the 150 IP 5 times in his career, so you can likely count on those numbers. His ERA last year was lower than average, but there's nothing to say he can't do it again. He's only been under 4 ERA three times in his career.

AHeaney: 28GS, 4.15, 147.1, 151 SO (34G)
Career Averages: 4.49, 116 IP, 137 SO
Projection: 4.37, 134, 147 SO

Heaney has only thrown more than 140 innings twice in his career, including last year. His ERA is typically higher than last year. Again -- we will likely see regression to the mean.

Bradfrd: 8 GS, 5.30, 56.0, 51 SO (20G)
Career Averages: 5.16, (not enough career info, so using expanded to 162 data) 138 IP, 129 SO
Projection: 4.70, 67 IP and 65 SO

Bradford is a Wild Card. He could be great. We don't know.

Lorenzen: 25 GS, 4.18, 153 IP, 111 SO
Career Averages: 4.11, 93 IP, 72 SO
Projections: 4.34, 137, 113 SO

Lorenzen has thrown more than 140 IP once in a 9-year career. He may or may not eat a lot of innings for the Tangers.

So, let's look at the tally:

1. 4 out of the 5 pitchers 2023 numbers were better than their career ERAs.
2. Dunning, Gray and Heaney had higher IP than their averages.
3. Strikeout numbers are consistent.
4. All ERAs (with the exception of Bradford) are expected to be higher than last year
5. Only Eovaldi's ERA is expected under 4.

All that being said -- that's why you play the games. Projections and performance are two different things.

It's not far-fetched to say the Rangers pitching may have problems and could be of concern. That is not a false narrative. The Rangers had several pitchers playing better than their averages in ERA and IP in 2023.

To say their pitching is terrible is hyperbole -- because it is not. There are question marks as to whether they can repeat the performances in 2024.

I appreciate you relying on information and statistics which I like.

Let's start with Eovaldi.
He has 4 (not 3) seasons over 140 IP in 11 (not 13). 2020 doesn't really count. He didn't pitch in '17 (TJ). We can't count '24, just yet. He came up to the Majors at 21. He started to establish himself at 24, which is when most SPs start their career, unless they are College pitchers, in which case... 25 or 26.

He has had injury issues which is why we got him cheap. I don't know that I want to argue anything here other than to reference numbers.

Dunning was 28, last year. He is your typical College (UofFlorida) SP.
Made his debut at 25. Got 7 GS. Then has improved each year since:
ERA: 4.51> 4.46> 3.70
IP: 117.2 > 153.1 > 163
Ks: 114 > 137 > 140
Sure, it was his best ERA, but the argument to be made is that is exactly what you want in a SP... Increasing IP while dropping ERA each year. As noted, his numbers started to drop late in the season. At 29, he is likely closer to his 2023 ability than his 2021 numbers would reflect. I think Dunning regressing is flawed.

Jon Gray is another flawed projection. He'll be 32 in 2024. You could argue he is who he is.
5 out of 8 seasons over 150 IP. Pretty solid. Keep in mind his home stadium for 7 years was Colorado. If you look at his splits in Colorado, he was actually a better pitcher in Colorado than on the road. One of the changes recommended by the Rangers in pursuing Gray was that his approach would change. He adapted his pitches and selection (from what I've understood) to accommodate Coors field which resulted in him using the same on the road. He tried to be more effective at Coors knowing he'd pitch half his starts there. Moving to Texas, his pitch selection would allow him more consistency. Has that played out? Maybe.

ERA @ Col: 4.59
ERA @ Tex: 4.12

Regression?

Heaney - He is tough to project because of the time in the Bullpen. Will he regress from a 4.15 ('23) to a 4.37 in '24? Not sure that I care as long as he gets me a 150 Innings or so. Innings eater. Gap. His 1st full season was 2018. He has 5 seasons (not counting '20), 2 with over 140 IP.
Noteworthy... if Heaney had 2.2 IP more in '23 with the Rangers, his '24 option would have gone from $13M to $20M. The Rangers moved him to the Bullpen. He had ample opportunity to reach 150 IP. He accepted his Option for $13M without a peep and seems happy to be with the Rangers again. That kinda surprised me in many ways.

Bradford - He will be 26 and most likely improve on his 5.30 ERA in 56.0 IP. Probably a Wild Card. Drafted in '19, his 1st full season was a loss like most players in 2020. Out of Baylor, I'd expect him to follow a similar line as Dunning above. It isn't a guarantee, and his 1st outing this season may be an outlier. My hope would be to better Martin Perez' '23 performance with the Rangers: 20GS, 4.45 ERA, 141 IP.

Lorenzen pitched 6 seasons as a RP. His rookie season in '15 he was a SP, then spent 6 years as a RP. He has been a SP for the past 2 seasons.

Summary of Expectations:
Eovaldi: Same
Dunning: Slightly better
Gray: Same
Heaney: +/- inconsequential
Bradford: Better
Lorenzen: ? Who knows.

I think if someone is lazy it is easy to parrot the message they hear. If you actually analyze the information, you might come to a different conclusion. I appreciate you inserting more commentary than just the "regressing to their mean." Sometimes context is important looking at numbers.

We'll play the games and likely revisit this topic.

Exactly. It's one of those things that can go either way.

Enjoying the logical and more than can stuff conversation.

Let's bump this topic... we're early still early, but the Astros got 2 chances to see some of our SP. I know the closed stadium for both teams can help control the temperatures.

Eovaldi: 4GS, 2.92 ERA, 24.2 IP, 22 SO, 1.014 WHIP, 6 BB

Dunning: 3GS, 4.50 ERA, 18.0 IP, 17 SO, 1.167 WHIP, 9 BB
- @TB (4BB), vHou (3BB), @Hou (2BB)

Jon Gray: 3GS, 4.38, 12.1 IP, 14 SO, 1.784 WHIP, 7BB
-vCHC (3), vHou (3), vOak (1)

Heaney: 3GS, 6.75, 12.0 IP, 10 SO, 1.583 WHIP, 7BB
- @TB (0BB), vHou (3), @Hou (4)

Bradford: 3GS, 1.40 ERA, 19.1 IP, 17 SO, 0.621 WHIP, 2BB

Lorenzen: 1GS, 0.00 ERA, 5.0 IP, 4 SO, 1.600 WHIP, 5BB

I think Eovaldi and Bradford are where I'd like to see them. Bradford is going to miss a GS (lower back pain), but should return. In his absence, Lorenzen did well. We'll likely have a 6th guy in the rotation (Leiter?) for a round. Likely to help setup some matchups and give a breather for a 17G stretch.

BBs are a problem. I'll be watching that. Some P have indicated Umps haven't been rubbing the balls down well and without the sticky stuff, Ps are have more issues with ball variance. Fairbanks (TBR) said in Colorado that he'd get a slick ball then a mushy ball.

Houston is sitting at 4.6 BB9. Texas is at 3.7 BB9. Of course, Hernandez may have impacted that.

It could be just early in the season and Ps are still ramping up, it could be the cooler weather early in the season and will take care of itself as temps warm. It could also be that the League is managing the balls differently. It could also be the cause of early injuries. Without the sticky stuff, if Ps like Glasnow claim they have to grip the ball harder and they're not getting rubbed down completely... Ps may be finding themselves in a game having to grip harder than normal putting a toll on their elbows.

All-in-all, I like where the P is for the Rangers and expect them to bring down the BBs and ERA. I think the Rangers took it slow in ST and some players are just hitting their stride. Detroit instead of Houston will also help, but Atlanta is on the way.