The nuclear option for the Rangers is a 3 way tie for the AL West, with Toronto going 3-1 or 4-0 over their final 4 games. That would put all 3 AL West teams at 89 wins, and TOR at 90/91. SEA takes the division, and HOU beats TEX for the wild card on head to head.
If we assume the games are all 50/50, and my math is solid, TEX has a 6.25% chance of being swept 0-4, and HOU has a 37.5% chance of going 2-1. Multiplying those possibilities gives TEX a 2.3% chance of missing the play-offs, without considering TOR. Now, if we consider TOR, they have a 31.25% chance of going 4-0 or 3-1, both of which would knock out TEX. Multiplying that by the "nuclear option" gives TEX a 0.9% chance of missing the playoffs. This is exactly the number shown by ESPN.
Interesting side note. If SEA wins the first 3 games against TEX and HOU wins the first 2 against ARI, a TEX loss coupled with an HOU loss would knock TEX out of everything (if TOR goes 3-1). A TEX loss coupled with a HOU win would give TEX the WC over SEA, regardless of TOR.
Now for the HOU AL West odds. HOU wins the AL West if they go 3-0 and TEX goes 0-4 (outright), or if they go 3-0 and TEX goes 1-3 (tiebreaker). My math shows that HOU has a 3.9% chance of winning the AL West.
SEA only wins the AL West if they go 4-0 and HOU goes 2-1. They have a 2.3% chance of winning the AL West.
We can either subtract the HOU and SEA probabilities to show that TEX has a 93.8% chance of winning the AL West, or we can crank through all remaining probabilities and arrive at the same answer (which I did).
Other than the complicated math, the cool thing is that the 50/50 chance for each game probably isn't far off, since all 3 series (HOU-ARI, TEX-SEA, and TOR-TAM) involve 6 teams who are good and still playing for seeding and play-off spots.
Sorry if I got anything wrong. I tried.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
