Key to this series is taking it 2-0 into Seattle. We have done that in every ALDS since 2017, and it's the key reason we have won them all. Need to take their Hope away early.

To let them even have a shot of winning the series at home would be horrible for momentum given that will be the most excited playoff crowd of this century for game 3

Do we know who the projected starters are for the Mariners? I'd assume Castillo game 2 but not sure.

ttha_aggie_09 said:

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Do we know who the projected starters are for the Mariners? I'd assume Castillo game 2 but not sure.

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Gilbert game 1 and Castillo game 2 is what I've seen

Every team's chance to make the World Series according to Fangraphs:

1. Astros 37.1%
2. Braves 28.7%
3. Dodgers 27.1%
4. Yankees 26.1%
5. Mariners 23.1%
6. Padres 22.5%
7. Phillies 28.1%
8. Guardians 13.7%

— MLB Metrics (@MLBMetrics) October 10, 2022

ttha_aggie_09 said:

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Do we know who the projected starters are for the Mariners? I'd assume Castillo game 2 but not sure.

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yes. see above poster

I know they wont do it but Chris Flexen has been pretty good against us this year too.

We have seen him for 30 innings but he has only given up 9 runs.

Frok said:

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Trying to think of pitchers we face

Game 1 - Logan Gilbert - He pitched well against us. 4 starts, gave up a total of 7 runs
Game 2 - Luis Castillo - We never faced him this year.
Game 3 - Robbie Ray - 3 starts, gave up 13 runs.
Game 4 - ???
Game 5 - ???

The Astros have to get to Logan Gilbert with Luis Castillo likely pitching game two. Castillo concerns me since we haven't faced him.

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Said differently, as long as the Astros at least split Game 1 and Game 2, we look pretty good.

No travel day would make the gap between games 4 & 5 brutal (red eye flight with winner take all the next day). Need to wrap this thing up in 3 if not 4

Anybody happen to know face value for ALCS? They are going to email out lottery stuff today but was curious.

Last year it was $130 for upper deck before fees.

Ill be there tomorrow in the bullpen. No tequila this time as I missed the ENTIRE game 6 blacked out in almost the same seats last year......... BTHO seattle

The Porkchop Express said:

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Here's something fun for the off-day. July 22, 2022. The Mariners had won 14 straight to get within 10 games of the Astros. They had those nasty mean Astros coming to down for 3 games and they would sweep the cheaters to get within 7.

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Actually could have closed it to five games if things went their way. Seattle had closed it to 9 games by the All-Star break and the Astros had to play a double header against the Damn Yankees before traveling to Seattle. The fact the Astros won all five of those games just killed any momentum and hope the Mariners had going into the break.

Minute Maid Park crew getting the field ready for the ALDS pic.twitter.com/YDHj1Bnn6w

— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) October 10, 2022

Lets revisit the roster one last time.

I am going to guess we have 14 position players and 12 pitchers for the DS.

Position Players Locks (10)
C: Maldy, Vazquez
1st: Gurriel
2nd: Altuve
SS: Pena
3rd: Bregman
LF: Mancini
CF: McCormick
RF: Tucker
DH: Alvarez
UTL: Diaz

Options for the Final 4
Dubon
Hensley
Meyers
Diaz

I would go Meyers, Hensley, & Diaz, but I think the Astros pick Dubon. Not sure who the odd man out is.

Pitching Locks (9)
SP: Verlander, Framber, McCullers, Javier
RP: Pressly, Stanek, Neris, Montero, Abreu

Options for the Final 3
Urquidy
Garcia
Maton
Smith
Brown

A much tougher decision here. I would go Maton, Brown, Urquidy/Garcia (torn here). Brown 100% has to be on this roster IMO. I can see arguments for the others.

What are the RH/LH splits for those final 3 pitching options?

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Minute Maid Park crew getting the field ready for the ALDS pic.twitter.com/YDHj1Bnn6w

— Mark Berman (@MarkBermanFox26) October 10, 2022

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I see the field crew is still having issues… old logo still very visible.

if the Mariners are smart...they hold off on starting Robbie Ray as long as possible.

go with Flexen or Marco in game 3 and maybe 4

TRM said:

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What are the RH/LH splits for those final 3 pitching options?

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vs LHH


vs RHH

Could go Kirby too. Like us, they have several realistic options. The difference is ours are all great while theirs are all kind of iffy.

Dubon, Meyers and Diaz seems like the direction the org will go. With Dubon's defensive versatility and speed being seen as more valuable than Hensley's bat. Don't think either would see the field much (if at all).

IMO Brown is a lock. Then I'd take LuAce and Maton. I'm guessing we take Smith instead of Maton though cuz of Dusty lefty obsession.

EDIT: On second thought, I'm fine with Maton or Smith to round out the 12.

Astros manager Dusty Baker said he’s not ready to announce ALDS rotation yet. He said some sickness is going around.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 10, 2022

Dusty Baker said Mauricio Dubón will “probably not” start in center field behind Justin Verlander, citing the need for more offense.

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) October 10, 2022

Regardless of how it figures out, the back end of the roster should make very little impact. I don't want to see Meyers or Dubon getting an AB. I don't want Garcia, Smith, or Maton in a high or even med leverage spot.

Agreed. LuAce should only be there for extra innings or in a unique situation with extended mop up duty.

The Porkchop Express said:

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Here's something fun for the off-day. July 22, 2022. The Mariners had won 14 straight to get within 10 games of the Astros. They had those nasty mean Astros coming to down for 3 games and they would sweep the cheaters to get within 7.

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I'm a simple man, I see a Pitch Meeting reference, I blue star.

Happy @mlbtraderumors arbitration salary projection day. It's going to be an expensive winter for whoever is the Astros general manager. https://t.co/GmJ3mU2iFl pic.twitter.com/6eJBDsmAtK

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) October 10, 2022

Thats not a crazy expensive amount of money for 9 players. Someone is about to drop $35-40MM a year for many many years on Aaron Judge. Thats crazy expensive. The Angels are paying Anthony Rendon $35MM a year next year. Thats stupid expensive.