That's how I'd play Tucker and Yordan.

But if he puts down a good bunt and ends up on 2nd base they next batters don't have to do as much to get him in.

If he leads off then a ground out/a sacrifice bunt followed by a sac fly can score a run.

Pretty sure this is it. The worst strike three call of the season pic.twitter.com/jmCay1Lvmv

— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) May 31, 2022

What kind of bunt are you talking about? It would pretty much have to be a bunt over the head of the pitcher to the left infield. Otherwise, the pitcher should be able to at least get to it in time to throw him out at 2nd .

Astros are 4 up already on the Angels, right? 100 games left, more home than away, McCullers and Meyers should be back soon, and the Angels have been remarkably healthy to date.

10 may be low with just the status quo.

I think that's almost over complicating it.

Fact is guys like Ohtani, Tucker, and Yordan don't hit many ground balls to the opposite field.

Anything to the the left is gonna be a fly ball or line drive to the OF or a gap.

That shift is classic Toronto. They do the same to Tucker.

A shift like that is a prime example of a batter thinking of himself instead of the team. Not saying you would do it but take a guy like Ripken, Gwynn, Rose etc...if they were given a shift scenario like that I fully believe they'd expose it every time until you stopped. Every major league batter should be able to slap a ball the other way or push bunt the other way against that...it literally doesn't need anything but to get into the outfield and its a double.

Go hit for a week straight that is roughly 20 AB, if they shift you like that and you slap it the other way and build a 20 game hit streak...the shift stops. Who cares if during that span you don't hit a HR...you were on with a single or double 15-20 at bats in a row. However if you showed you'd do it id bet by your 3rd or 4th AB they would wither stop or at least keep the LF over there, or an INF on the left of second base

And again, before yall say it, I DONT CARE IF MY SLG % etc DROPS im on base. The game of baseball is meant to be played by getting on base.

Heck if they did it and I was the manager I hit that guy lead off so I start every game with a base runner

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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A shift like that is a prime example of a batter thinking of himself instead of the team. Not saying you would do it but take a guy like Ripken, Gwynn, Rose etc...if they were given a shift scenario like that I fully believe they'd expose it every time until you stopped. Every major league batter should be able to slap a ball the other way or push bunt the other way against that...it literally doesn't need anything but to get into the outfield and its a double.

Go hit for a week straight that is roughly 20 AB, if they shift you like that and you slap it the other way and build a 20 game hit streak...the shift stops. Who cares if during that span you don't hit a HR...you were on with a single or double 15-20 at bats in a row. However if you showed you'd do it id bet by your 3rd or 4th AB they would wither stop or at least keep the LF over there, or an INF on the left of second base

And again, before yall say it, I DONT CARE IF MY SLG % etc DROPS im on base. The game of baseball is meant to be played by getting on base.

Heck if they did it and I was the manager I hit that guy lead off so I start every game with a base runner

---

If it was that easy, everyone would be doing it. Same with bunting.

Love ya, but it is.

They don't want to do it. As the poster above pointed out it drops their other percentages so they don't make the sacrifice. Watch a major league player when they strike out its because they were trying to do too much, not do simple. If a batter doesn't like many pitches they can foul them off nearly at will at times. If a major leaguer knows he only has to get a ball hit to the left he can do it.

Watch a batter take BP, they do into the box 5 to RF, 5 to LF, 5 up the middle etc etc they know how to wield a bat

They choose not to because doing so l takes away their power. My point is I do not care about that. Give me a runner on and with that major of a shift...maybe a runner on second

I fully acknowledge there are advanced metrics that say taking the single is a worse outcome. But there are times when base runners are needed more than a solo shot.

Having a man on base makes that solo shot a 2 run shot.

especially if the batter behind you is...oh, let's say Mike Trout.

should always want to get on-base for him

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Love ya, but it is.

They don't want to do it. As the poster above pointed out it drops their other percentages so they don't make the sacrifice. Watch a major league player when they strike out its because they were trying to do too much, not do simple. If a batter doesn't like many pitches they can foul them off nearly at will at times. If a major leaguer knows he only has to get a ball hit to the left he can do it.

Watch a batter take BP, they do into the box 5 to RF, 5 to LF, 5 up the middle etc etc they know how to wield a bat

They choose not to because doing so l takes away their power. My point is I do not care about that. Give me a runner on and with that major of a shift...maybe a runner on second

---

In BP? sure.

I think you're severely underestimating how much better pitching is now vs when guys like Rose were playing.

My Filthiest Stuff from Yesterday...

Josh Hader
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Spencer Strider
Logan Webb
Framber Valdez
and David Bednar (and his mouth) 🤬😂

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— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2022

Joe Musgrove, 90mph Cutter and 81mph Curveball, Overlay pic.twitter.com/q1FuPuIu9m

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2022

Gerrit Cole, 89mph Slider and 98mph Fastball, Individual Pitches + Overlay pic.twitter.com/ZzO9D9jeB8

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 28, 2022

MosesHallRAB04 said:

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I fully acknowledge there are advanced metrics that say taking the single is a worse outcome. But there are times when base runners are needed more than a solo shot.

Having a man on base makes that solo shot a 2 run shot.

---

Those advanced metrics are also built on a standard at bat scenario. What I am say is flatly a major league hitter is going to hit a baseball 8/10 times to the left if he is actively trying to. because in that shift it doesnt matter how its hit or where or how hard, you literally just need to put a bat on the ball on the left side of the field and you are safe, if it can carry further you might be on second....heck Ohtani if he actually hit the ball hard dude might have a triple or inside the park, its a really long way to go from CF to the LF corner...further than 180 ft he would have to run, then the fielder has to pick it up cleanly and make a good throw

I am in complete agreement with you. Not enough people try to beat it.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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MosesHallRAB04 said:

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I fully acknowledge there are advanced metrics that say taking the single is a worse outcome. But there are times when base runners are needed more than a solo shot.

Having a man on base makes that solo shot a 2 run shot.

---

Those advanced metrics are also built on a standard at bat scenario. What I am say is flatly a major league hitter is going to hit a baseball 8/10 times to the left if he is actively trying to. because in that shift it doesnt matter how its hit or where or how hard, you literally just need to put a bat on the ball on the left side of the field and you are safe, if it can carry further you might be on second....heck Ohtani if he actually hit the ball hard dude might have a triple or inside the park, its a really long way to go from CF to the LF corner...further than 180 ft he would have to run, then the fielder has to pick it up cleanly and make a good throw

---

Are you assuming the LF dies in this scenario? He's playing pretty close to the line.

Baseball players rarely put in in play 8/10 times. Most have a K rate well above that.

Here is a very detailed analysis of why its not as simple as you make it out to be.

https://medium.com/sports-x-analytics/using-data-science-to-analyze-if-mlb-players-should-bunt-to-beat-the-shift-eea04bcd3ce8

Show clips of those guys pitching with a shift...you don't throw sliders inside to a guy in that scenario, most of the time they actually pitch exclusively on the outer half so you roll over on it and into the shift....those balls are designed by good hitters to be taken the other way.

Here's a more modern day Astros reference...Michael Brantley. If you give him a shift with everyone on the right side of the field he is on base 18/20 at bats in a row, agree? That is what I am talking about here...he is a professional hitter because he takes what is given to him.

So if Shohei went up there and said FU ill take my free hit and hit it the other way all game and go 4-4 with 3 singles and a double, and I scored 3 times because Mike Trout hits behind me...they wouldn't do it the next game

It's not that it's a worse outcome but moreso that the chances are better that given his skill set there's a better chance that he put one in the bleachers for a run than he not only gets the bunt down and gets on base but also that the guy behind him scores him.

I'm in the camp of it's was Tucker or Yordan I don't want them bunting. I want to take the chance to swing away and drop one seats.

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Show clips of those guys pitching with a shift...you don't throw sliders inside to a guy in that scenario, most of the time they actually pitch exclusively on the outer half so you roll over on it and into the shift....those balls are designed by good hitters to be taken the other way.

Here's a more modern day Astros reference...Michael Brantley. If you give him a shift with everyone on the right side of the field he is on base 18/20 at bats in a row, agree? That is what I am talking about here...he is a professional hitter because he takes what is given to him.

So if Shohei went up there and said FU ill take my free hit and hit it the other way all game and go 4-4 with 3 singles and a double, and I scored 3 times because Mike Trout hits behind me...they wouldn't do it the next game

---

I do not agree.

We have shift data.



he doesn't get the full-on 4 OF shift, but he sees a shift just like pretty much all lefties do.

Farmer1906 said:

---

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

MosesHallRAB04 said:

---

I fully acknowledge there are advanced metrics that say taking the single is a worse outcome. But there are times when base runners are needed more than a solo shot.

Having a man on base makes that solo shot a 2 run shot.

---

Those advanced metrics are also built on a standard at bat scenario. What I am say is flatly a major league hitter is going to hit a baseball 8/10 times to the left if he is actively trying to. because in that shift it doesnt matter how its hit or where or how hard, you literally just need to put a bat on the ball on the left side of the field and you are safe, if it can carry further you might be on second....heck Ohtani if he actually hit the ball hard dude might have a triple or inside the park, its a really long way to go from CF to the LF corner...further than 180 ft he would have to run, then the fielder has to pick it up cleanly and make a good throw

---

Are you assuming the LF dies in this scenario? He's playing pretty close to the line.

Baseball players rarely put in in play 8/10 times. Most have a K rate well above that.

Here is a very detailed analysis of why its not as simple as you make it out to be.

https://medium.com/sports-x-analytics/using-data-science-to-analyze-if-mlb-players-should-bunt-to-beat-the-shift-eea04bcd3ce8

---

I honestly didnt see him. still 4-4 with 4 singles. (As I said in most every post I thought all players were to the right of second)

All of the metrics and breakdowns you post aren't this scenario... that's my whole point. Your taking a breakdown of all batters in all scenarios.

Farmer1906 said:

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Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Show clips of those guys pitching with a shift...you don't throw sliders inside to a guy in that scenario, most of the time they actually pitch exclusively on the outer half so you roll over on it and into the shift....those balls are designed by good hitters to be taken the other way.

Here's a more modern day Astros reference...Michael Brantley. If you give him a shift with everyone on the right side of the field he is on base 18/20 at bats in a row, agree? That is what I am talking about here...he is a professional hitter because he takes what is given to him.

So if Shohei went up there and said FU ill take my free hit and hit it the other way all game and go 4-4 with 3 singles and a double, and I scored 3 times because Mike Trout hits behind me...they wouldn't do it the next game

---

I do not agree.

We have shift data.



he doesn't get the full-on 4 OF shift, but he sees a shift just like pretty much all lefties do.

---

Those shifts do not include 3-4 fielders to the right of second base. When Brantley hits the OF plays nearly straight up and 3B/SS are on the left side

Ag_07 said:

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It's not that it's a worse outcome but moreso that the chances are better that given his skill set there's a better chance that he put one in the bleachers for a run than he not only gets the bunt down and gets on base but also that the guy behind him scores him.

I'm in the camp of it's was Tucker or Yordan I don't want them bunting. I want to take the chance to swing away and drop one seats.

---

Shohei has had roughly 1800 AB he has 104 HR....the outcome is not better to do that instead of hitting against the shift for a month

Situation matters. Late innings 1 run game I want them in base. Especially tuck. He can steal 2nd

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

---

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

---

Show clips of those guys pitching with a shift...you don't throw sliders inside to a guy in that scenario, most of the time they actually pitch exclusively on the outer half so you roll over on it and into the shift....those balls are designed by good hitters to be taken the other way.

Here's a more modern day Astros reference...Michael Brantley. If you give him a shift with everyone on the right side of the field he is on base 18/20 at bats in a row, agree? That is what I am talking about here...he is a professional hitter because he takes what is given to him.

So if Shohei went up there and said FU ill take my free hit and hit it the other way all game and go 4-4 with 3 singles and a double, and I scored 3 times because Mike Trout hits behind me...they wouldn't do it the next game

---

I do not agree.

We have shift data.



he doesn't get the full-on 4 OF shift, but he sees a shift just like pretty much all lefties do.

---

Those shifts do not include 3-4 fielders to the right of second base. When Brantley hits the OF plays nearly straight up and 3B/SS are on the left side

---

Brantley doesn't get the extreme shifts, but he gets 1 IF to the left of 2nd. The OF moved more to the left, actually. I've noticed this for a few lefties too.

2021 positioning vs the shift & no runners on.


2021 Spray


Even someone with as good of bat control as MB, he still puts a ton more in play on the IF to the right than left even tho he has 3 IFer on the right.

and regarding Yordan...

one thing that makes Yordan a great hitter...he does drop in the occasional oppo single to plate runs.

just 2 days ago...in the 8th inning vs. Seattle...to break the tie

Lance McCullers Jr. is throwing off the mound at the Coliseum. Jake Odorizzi, who threw a bullpen yesterday, is running in the outfield.

— Danielle Lerner (@danielle_lerner) May 31, 2022

Kyle Tucker did some running in the outfield today. He said he doesn’t think he’s in the starting lineup today but that he would be available. He is going to hit and stretch before the game.

— Danielle Lerner (@danielle_lerner) May 31, 2022

Lance McCullers Jr. threw 15 pitches off bullpen mound in Oakland moments ago, hitting 86 mph. He threw mostly two-seamers and changeups. He’ll throw again Friday in Kansas City.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) May 31, 2022

Lonestar_Ag09 said:

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Ag_07 said:

---

It's not that it's a worse outcome but moreso that the chances are better that given his skill set there's a better chance that he put one in the bleachers for a run than he not only gets the bunt down and gets on base but also that the guy behind him scores him.

I'm in the camp of it's was Tucker or Yordan I don't want them bunting. I want to take the chance to swing away and drop one seats.

---

Shohei has had roughly 1800 AB he has 104 HR....the outcome is not better to do that instead of hitting against the shift for a month

---

Last June, Shohei hit 13 homers. If he goes against the shift for the month of June, I looked it up, that's 18 less runs in June (all were either solo or 2-run HR (lots of teams still shift with a guy on)). That's exactly why the other team is willing to try to gift him a single to the other side.

I am with Farmer that I don't think guys can just go 4-4 against the shift every night, or even .500 for a month. Pitchers are too good. If someone started hitting oppo every time, the pitcher would adjust the way they pitch to them before the team adjusted their shift.

some good midweek series in the AL this week:

Angels-Yankees
White Sox-Blue Jays
Rays-Rangers

'stros need to take care of business vs. the A's again tonight and tomorrow