Farmer1906 said:

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Mr President Elect said:

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I'd be okay if Maton got left off. Seems like he has been more reliable lately, but there defiinitely was a stretch this season where I didn't want to see him come in. Let's see how they play down the stretch and probably would be okay with leaving anyone off that is in a rough patch outside of Abreau and Presley

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I was going to say we should keep Maton on because he's good at getting lefties out... but he's not that good. He has reverse splits, yes, but he's still not as good as our top guys.

Vs LHH


Vs RHH


Will Smith (Fangraphs filtered him out when I selected HOU only)

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Quoting my post from 2 days ago since it's relevant to Smith.

This was before yesterday's game, obviously, but he's 9th on the team vs lefties per wOBA. Only Maton, Javier, & Garcia have been worse. Come playoff time and we need to get a lefty out plus the righty right after him, I take Stanek, Neris, Montero, Abreu, & Pressly over him.

Farmer1906 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mr President Elect said:

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I'd be okay if Maton got left off. Seems like he has been more reliable lately, but there defiinitely was a stretch this season where I didn't want to see him come in. Let's see how they play down the stretch and probably would be okay with leaving anyone off that is in a rough patch outside of Abreau and Presley

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I was going to say we should keep Maton on because he's good at getting lefties out... but he's not that good. He has reverse splits, yes, but he's still not as good as our top guys.

Vs LHH


Vs RHH


Will Smith (Fangraphs filtered him out when I selected HOU only)

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Quoting my post from 2 days ago since it's relevant to Smith.

This was before yesterday's game, obviously, but he's 9th on the team vs lefties per wOBA. Only Maton, Javier, & Garcia have been worse. Come playoff time and we need to get a lefty out plus the righty right after him, I take Stanek, Neris, Montero, Abreu, & Pressly over him.

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That's fan stuff

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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Mr President Elect said:

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I'd be okay if Maton got left off. Seems like he has been more reliable lately, but there defiinitely was a stretch this season where I didn't want to see him come in. Let's see how they play down the stretch and probably would be okay with leaving anyone off that is in a rough patch outside of Abreau and Presley

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I was going to say we should keep Maton on because he's good at getting lefties out... but he's not that good. He has reverse splits, yes, but he's still not as good as our top guys.

Vs LHH


Vs RHH


Will Smith (Fangraphs filtered him out when I selected HOU only)

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Quoting my post from 2 days ago since it's relevant to Smith.

This was before yesterday's game, obviously, but he's 9th on the team vs lefties per wOBA. Only Maton, Javier, & Garcia have been worse. Come playoff time and we need to get a lefty out plus the righty right after him, I take Stanek, Neris, Montero, Abreu, & Pressly over him.

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That's fan stuff

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That reminds me of "Get a Dog" -KS via 2012(?).

It won't go away until Dusty does

I'd be stunned if click keeps smith off the playoff roster. they are going to want a lefty

BMX Bandit said:

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I'd be stunned if click keeps smith off the playoff roster. they are going to want a lefty

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If he's worse at getting lefties out, why?

BMX Bandit said:

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I'd be stunned if click keeps smith off the playoff roster. they are going to Dusty wants a lefty

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FIFY

Lance McCullers & Simone Biles: Synchronized Balance Beam. 🥇 pic.twitter.com/pPsxajxwWC

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 16, 2022

Farmer1906 said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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I'd be stunned if click keeps smith off the playoff roster. they are going to want a lefty

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If he's worse at getting lefties out, why?

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.643 OPS vs LHB, .859 vs RHB

I know there are a lot of arguments about wOBA vs OPS and I have read them and I don't love Smith and am not looking to get into a "more worthy stat" argument...but it looks like he allows far fewer bases to LHB.

Good morning to everyone but Oakland, #DrumTogether fans & that A’s lineup that thought it could solve @lmccullers43 last night. Good grief. I’m sure they’ll enjoy @JustinVerlander’s return…😏 #LevelUp🤘🏼🔥 pic.twitter.com/RbEX3YF5AA

— Adam Clanton (@adamclanton) September 16, 2022

Harry Dunne said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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BMX Bandit said:

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I'd be stunned if click keeps smith off the playoff roster. they are going to want a lefty

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If he's worse at getting lefties out, why?

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.643 OPS vs LHB, .859 vs RHB

I know there are a lot of arguments about wOBA vs OPS and I have read them and I don't love Smith and am not looking to get into a "more worthy stat" argument...but it looks like he allows far fewer bases to LHB.

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I am aware he's literally better at getting lefties out than righties. My point is he's been worse at getting lefties out than some top-tier righty arms.

vs LHH

Name OPS
Lance McCullers Jr. 0.424
Justin Verlander 0.452
Ryne Stanek 0.464
Bryan Abreu 0.480
Rafael Montero 0.489
Framber Valdez 0.491
Hector Neris 0.501
Ryan Pressly 0.514
Jose Urquidy 0.624
Jake Odorizzi 0.650
Cristian Javier 0.653
Phil Maton 0.679
Luis Garcia 0.742
Seth Martinez 0.777

Why goto Smith in the 7th to face a lefty when you could use Neris who's been much more effective vs lefties & righties.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/34590577/which-players-follow-albert-pujols-miguel-cabrera-reach-mlb-biggest-milestones

espn is pretty dumb. they dont even have the correct HR totals for air yordan. and even though altuve has more hits at the same age as freeman, he has less than half the chance of getting 3000 hits.

OK I understand now. I didn't start reading at the beginning of the exchange.

Still, you're judging him on the entire season, which he had a terrible start to. I'm not sure if there is anywhere you can break down his splits to Astros alone or last month alone, but his overall numbers with the Astros so far have been more similar to his 2019 All-Star season in which LBH had a .395 OPS against.

Obviously any consideration for him being on the roster is based on his continuing to pitch like he has over the past month.

Farmer1906 said:

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vs LHH

Name OPS
Lance McCullers Jr. 0.424
Justin Verlander 0.452
Ryne Stanek 0.464
Bryan Abreu 0.480
Rafael Montero 0.489
Framber Valdez 0.491
Hector Neris 0.501
Ryan Pressly 0.514
Jose Urquidy 0.624
Jake Odorizzi 0.650
Cristian Javier 0.653
Phil Maton 0.679
Luis Garcia 0.742
Seth Martinez 0.777

Why goto Smith in the 7th to face a lefty when you could use Neris who's been much more effective vs lefties & righties.

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Also these are the guys he is competing with for that situational role. You're probably not going to put a starter/long relief guy or our closer into a situational vs lefty situation, or at least not carry them on the roster only for that role.

The front end of the bullpen guys rarely see any meaningful innings anyway, so what this list tells me is that given it's going to be niche usage, Smith is probably a better choice than Maton or Martinez for that last spot on the roster - and yes, those other guys may STILL be better than Smith against LHB and still get the looks before he does.

Tony Sipp had that role in 2018 in which he had an 1.86 ERA regular season ERA and he still only pitched 1.1 innings the whole postseason, and that was before the 3 batter minimum.

Harry Dunne said:

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OK I understand now. I didn't start reading at the beginning of the exchange.

Still, you're judging him on the entire season, which he had a terrible start to. I'm not sure if there is anywhere you can break down his splits to Astros alone or last month alone, but his overall numbers with the Astros so far have been more similar to his 2019 All-Star season in which LBH had a .395 OPS against.

Obviously any consideration for him being on the roster is based on his continuing to pitch like he has over the past month.

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Anything for my ole pay, Harry.

.549 OPS vs LHH since 8/2. 31 batters faced.

I would say that's a nice piece of info. Maybe he's figured something out here.

But then you see this.

1.059 OPS vs RHH since 8/2. Again, 31 batters faced.

He's been so bad vs righties that it negates any success he's had vs lefties.

Is he actually doing much different?



Throwing the curve less. Getting back too close to his earlier season slider/fastball split. It's a little different, but maybe not different enough to give the Astros credit for changing him. Could just be normal variations.

All that to say, who the hell knows? His July was so terrible he's probably seeing some positive regression. I'd still put him right on the playoff roster cut line. When you put him next to Hunter Brown, Phil Maton, Luis Garcia, & Seth Martinez, I am not sure who I take him over.

Gracias. Good info.

If he keeps it up, I take Brown miles ahead of the rest of that crew. He's just a far superior talent and I think he has the capability of filling that historical CFM or Lance role of going out there and giving you 3-4 great innings of relief in a game where you only get 3 to 5 innings out of your starter, which is going to happen. With playoff pressure, every pitching change is a chance for a guy to absolutely crap his pants and blow the game. The beauty of a guy like Brown is that if he's rolling, you don't have to pucker up the way you would if a new guy was coming into the game. All respect to Maton and his amazing 2021 postseason, I think that was a guy that got hot at the right time and not just a dude who turns into a legend in big moments. I've gotta believe Dusty is going to give him a shot, so I guess we will see.

I feel bad for Martinez. He's had a good season and would probably be a high-leverage guy for any other team.

Harry Dunne said:

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Gracias. Good info.

If he keeps it up, I take Brown miles ahead of the rest of that crew. He's just a far superior talent and I think he has the capability of filling that historical CFM or Lance role of going out there and giving you 3-4 great innings of relief in a game where you only get 3 to 5 innings out of your starter, which is going to happen. With playoff pressure, every pitching change is a chance for a guy to absolutely crap his pants and blow the game. The beauty of a guy like Brown is that if he's rolling, you don't have to pucker up the way you would if a new guy was coming into the game. All respect to Maton and his amazing 2021 postseason, I think that was a guy that got hot at the right time and not just a dude who turns into a legend in big moments. I've gotta believe Dusty is going to give him a shot, so I guess we will see.

I feel bad for Martinez. He's had a good season and would probably be a high-leverage guy for any other team.

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Article I wrote covering last night's game
https://www.gallerysports.com/mccullers-magic-fuels-astros-victory-thursday-night/

This date in Astros history

2005 - This wasn't just an ordinary game-winning single in the bottom of the ninth for Jeff Bagwell. It was his first big league hit since mid-May when he decided on surgery to help an arthritic shoulder. There were no guarantees the franchise's home run champ would be able to resume playing. His hit scores Willy Taveras for a 2-1 triumph over Milwaukee to keep the Astros a half-game ahead in the wild card race. Elsewhere, former Astro owner John McMullen dies at age 87. McMullen owned the ballclub from 1979 to 1992. Satan rolls out the red carpet.

Harry Dunne said:

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Gracias. Good info.

If he keeps it up, I take Brown miles ahead of the rest of that crew. He's just a far superior talent and I think he has the capability of filling that historical CFM or Lance role of going out there and giving you 3-4 great innings of relief in a game where you only get 3 to 5 innings out of your starter, which is going to happen. With playoff pressure, every pitching change is a chance for a guy to absolutely crap his pants and blow the game. The beauty of a guy like Brown is that if he's rolling, you don't have to pucker up the way you would if a new guy was coming into the game. All respect to Maton and his amazing 2021 postseason, I think that was a guy that got hot at the right time and not just a dude who turns into a legend in big moments. I've gotta believe Dusty is going to give him a shot, so I guess we will see.

I feel bad for Martinez. He's had a good season and would probably be a high-leverage guy for any other team.

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But that's why Javier will be in the bullpen. He's got that roll when we have a lead and has faced legit MLB pitchers in big situations.

Not saying Brown won't succeed, but I will take the guy who has been able to prove it all season long against dangerous lineups in the biggest moment of the season.

I'll go on record right now and say that if Brown is on the post season roster and gets in a game, it will be when we are losing by 3 or more and the starter has only gone 3 or 4 innings.

We'll see if I'm wrong, but I don't think I will be. I'll eat the crow if I am for sure!

What happens when Javier goes 4 innings one game and then the next starter throws 105 pitches in 5 innings?

Joseph Anthony Mancini the Third.

🎙️ presented by @EstrellaJalisco pic.twitter.com/5cZswaXuqe

— Houston Astros (@astros) September 16, 2022

Harry Dunne said:

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Is it too much to ask for both?

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Hey - I want the guy to succeed, but we have no idea how he will respond in a pressure situation when the stakes are higher than he's ever faced.

It just feels like the talent the dude had is clouding a lot of logic. I love his talent - I just wish if they really wanted to use him in the postseason that they would have brought him up after the all star break.

It feels to me like taking an unnecessary risk when your known quantities are already really damn good and have brought you great success.

Harry Dunne said:

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What happens when Javier goes 4 innings one game and then the next starter throws 105 pitches in 5 innings?

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That's why there are off days. If that were to happen and we were leading or it is within 3 runs, we have the arms to go 6-9 who have done it all year. I think Brown gets in if we're losing by 4+ in that situation.

Also, I personally feel the organization is carrying Garcia as the 4th starter and putting Urquidy in the pen. So I think Jose would be used in that situation if we are leading. I would prefer them not carry Garcia as the 4th stater and use Urquidy as the 4th instead.

Also, I like the discussion. It would be awesome if Brown does a CFM or LMJ postseason relief appearance. Would immortalize him with this franchise.

I guess I'm just more conservative and more of the philosophy of use what got you there, but evaluate the risk/reward of new game plans.

I'll be rooting hard for Brown if he gets into some big moments in the post season.

It's a good problem to have and I don't disagree with any of that. I also think if they plan to use Brown in that role, they will probably be trying him in it starting now. It will be interesting to see who gets moved out of the rotation with JV back.

Like someone said when we had the same conversation a couple of days ago, everyone wants a guy to have experience but you can't have experience until you get experience. At some point in the future, Brown is going to pitch in the postseason. Maybe you're right and it's better if it's not 2022 in high leverage, but it would be dumb IMO to give that last spot to a lesser pitcher just because of experience.

Even if it is mop-up work, I'd rather it be him getting the experience than a lesser talent who is not part of our future.

Brown (or really any of the guys in this discussion) could tail off or heat up in September, which might make this conversation more simple. Maton is the worst option IMO, but if he doesn't allow a run the rest of the way combined with his playoff excellence last year even I would ride the hot hand there.

It'll work itself out.

Or Dusty will just go with his gut.

I'm pretty excited about Brown as the rest of you are. Just curious what his advanced stats are (and how they compare to mlb) in his limited sample? It seems like the balls being put in play have been hit pretty hard, just happen to go right to our fielders so far. I could be wrong, but just seemed that way to me.

Y'all know I am always down for more good/great pitchers, so seeing Brown do well is a very promising sign.

So I didn't realize there was an issue between dusty and Alvarez regarding him having a day off. Dusty saying his hands were bothering him and Alvarez saying they weren't.

Jet Black said:

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So I didn't realize there was an issue between dusty and Alvarez regarding him having a day off. Dusty saying his hands were bothering him and Alvarez saying they weren't.

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Dusty is old and his memory is fading. Nothing to see here.

Espada probably fixed everything anyway

Personally Id bet his hands were sore, it had been agreed upon they were going to say it was just scheduled so when he comes back they don't pitch him inside as much...If I knew a dudes hands hurt id pitch more inside to try and jam him hoping it aggravated them as well as maybe he is less likely to sing to avoid the pain

Then Dusty is old and forgot and spoke the truth

bearkatag15 said:

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Jet Black said:

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So I didn't realize there was an issue between dusty and Alvarez regarding him having a day off. Dusty saying his hands were bothering him and Alvarez saying they weren't.

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Dusty is old and his memory is fading. Nothing to see here.

Espada probably fixed everything anyway

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So is the plan to re-sign Click and then promote Espada to manager?

That's what the majority of people are hoping for. Dusty already made it known he wants to manage again though so if we win it all I would expect him to get that opportunity. Hopefully he just retires at the top though

Triple-A Sugar Land manager Mickey Storey will manage all of these players on the Surprise Saguaros

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) September 16, 2022

All I do is Nguyen said:

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bearkatag15 said:

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Jet Black said:

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So I didn't realize there was an issue between dusty and Alvarez regarding him having a day off. Dusty saying his hands were bothering him and Alvarez saying they weren't.

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Dusty is old and his memory is fading. Nothing to see here.

Espada probably fixed everything anyway

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So is the plan to re-sign Click and then promote Espada to manager?

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Will be great when that happens and Dusty reveals Espada made all the lineup cards out for the past 3 years.