The fact they're even considering giving JV a QO tells me there's a decent chance he comes back. I find it hard to believe anyone offers him more than that on a 1 year deal and even if he gets a 2 year deal its likely in the $25-30M range with incentives. Why wouldn't we just match that? Starting pitching is likely something we will pursue but I don't see any of the top starters as an option. JV is just as good a bet as the other mid-pack starters we'd be looking at on 2-3 year deals.

List of FAs by position

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-2021-22-free-agents-by-position

texasaggie2015 said:

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I'm going to miss Brent Strom

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I missed it; was there a reason why he is not returning next season??

He's retiring. He kinda hinted at it a week or two ago.

MaxPower said:

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The fact they're even considering giving JV a QO tells me there's a decent chance he comes back. I find it hard to believe anyone offers him more than that on a 1 year deal and even if he gets a 2 year deal its likely in the $25-30M range with incentives. Why wouldn't we just match that? Starting pitching is likely something we will pursue but I don't see any of the top starters as an option. JV is just as good a bet as the other mid-pack starters we'd be looking at on 2-3 year deals.

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I think we need to make two starting pitcher moves.

1) A durable ace-caliber starter to pair with Lance atop the rotation and lean on for 200 innings. This will probably have to be acquired via trade.
2) A veteran with ample postseason experience that we can bring along slowly in the regular season and keep fresh for the playoffs. JV might fit this role.

We'll have Garcia, Framber, Urquidy, Odo, even Solomon, Emmanuel, Whitley, etc to eat regular season innings. The key for next year is to have three guys heading into October that can be relied upon for 5-6 innings per start.

But I think we'll have the ability to treat Lance and aforementioned starter acquisition #2 with kid gloves over the regular season and have them ready to go for the playoffs.

the Braves series drove home that we really need some lefties in the rotation and in the pen. Seemed like every pitcher the Braves threw was a lefty. Yes I know they are hard to find, but we need to find them.

Love Strom, but after listening to the podcast last week with Apollo media it was apparent he was ready to move on. He's an interesting and really cool guy - you would think and old guy like him would be a traditional buy the book guy but he's all in on analytics.

Ag12thman said:

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texasaggie2015 said:

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I'm going to miss Brent Strom

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I missed it; was there a reason why he is not returning next season??

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He's retiring

bullard21k said:

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If Correa doesn't resign he is heading the following imo:

AL
Texas
Detroit
Toronto
Boston

NL
Phillies
Dodgers
Atlanta
Cubs

I think those are the 8 most logical landing spots Imo but I think Philly is going to be the choice personally

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I wonder what the other half of Team Correa thinks of these destinations. Especially Detroit.

Philly does make sense. Boston does, too.

I have no insight, no sources, no anything, but my guess is Philly.

Nino Brown said:

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Start working Yordan at 1st. Let Bregs heal. Sign ace.

Give CC what you can afford for 6 years. He doesn't take it let him walk and offer next best SS free agent.

Fun fact:

How many former Astros have left for bugger contracts and actually been worth what they were offered?

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does carlos beltran count?

I don't remember anymore what compensation is for losing a FA that is tendered a QO but wouldn't that be reason enough to make an offer to Verlander?

Farmer1906 said:

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If luxury tax drops down to 180 M as rumored then we should have about 35 M to play with. I think we can mix and match around 12 M to sign some bullpen arms (Graveman, Raley, Garcia, new FA) then use a larger portion (15-20M) to go after a starting pitcher. I would start by offering Thor, Ray, and maybe even Stroman the Lance contact of 5 years/85 M. It won't land Thor, but it might be enough for Ray or Stroman.

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We only have $35mm even if Correa leaves? I was thinking we'd have a bit more than that.

I guess lux tax potentially coming down to $180mm makes a big diff. Just JV/ZG alone coming off the books is $55mm and Correa's 2021 salary adds to that. Unless you are taking into account other raises across the board eating into that.

Mr.Ackar07 said:

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Nino Brown said:

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Fun fact:

How many former Astros have left for bugger contracts and actually been worth what they were offered?

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Charlie Morton

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Wade Miley. I believe he got a similar deal to Odorizzi. Was hurt last year, but this year:

12-7, 3.37 ERA in 28 starts and 163 IP.

#5 in all of baseball with a 6.0 WAR

Way too early 2022 rankings from ESPN:

Quote:

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3. Houston Astros
2021 record: 95-67 (first in AL West)

This impressive run of success that began in 2015 should continue into next season, even though in recent years the club has lost Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander (to injury in 2020 and '21, and now he's a free agent), Charlie Morton and George Springer, and will now likely lose Carlos Correa and Zack Greinke.

Jose Altuve, Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley are all in their 30s, but remained productive in 2021 (Gurriel won the batting title and Altuve hit 31 homers and scored 117 runs). Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez should be the team's top sluggers moving forward, and prospect Jeremy Pena could replace Correa. The rotation should remain strong with Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia leading the way, and there should be money to spend in free agency (perhaps even re-signing Verlander).

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Other notables:
1. Tampa Bay
2. Chicago WS
5. Toronto
6. LA Dodgers
7. Atlanta Braves
8. Boston Red Sox
9. NY Yankees
13. LA Angels
14. Oakland A's
15. Seattle Mariners
29. Texas Rangers

3 Toed Pete said:

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I don't remember anymore what compensation is for losing a FA that is tendered a QO but wouldn't that be reason enough to make an offer to Verlander?

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Well if you're perfectly comfortable paying him $19M anyway then there's no reason not to. It would be a compensation pick between rounds 2 and 3 of the draft. Whether we offer a QO may tell us a lot about Carlos because I can't imagine Crane stomaching $19M to JV AND giving Carlos $300M.

MaxPower said:

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3 Toed Pete said:

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I don't remember anymore what compensation is for losing a FA that is tendered a QO but wouldn't that be reason enough to make an offer to Verlander?

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Well if you're perfectly comfortable paying him $19M anyway then there's no reason not to. It would be a compensation pick between rounds 2 and 3 of the draft. Whether we offer a QO may tell us a lot about Carlos because I can't imagine Crane stomaching $19M to JV AND giving Carlos $300M.

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i think you can get Stroman for around that, and I'd prefer him to a recovering Verlander.

wangus12 said:

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cc10106 said:

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It was nice waking up today to see all the LA and NY fans posting about the Astros.

Gotta love free rent!

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There was nothing positive about waking up today and there not being a Game 7.

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Take all the time you need. 2019 bothered me more than this one, but atleast Chicago and Boston got their payback.

It's a great day to be a Houston Astros fan. The window is open with a good roster and young talent that is hungry to compete for a perennial playoff contender.

Deluxe said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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If luxury tax drops down to 180 M as rumored then we should have about 35 M to play with. I think we can mix and match around 12 M to sign some bullpen arms (Graveman, Raley, Garcia, new FA) then use a larger portion (15-20M) to go after a starting pitcher. I would start by offering Thor, Ray, and maybe even Stroman the Lance contact of 5 years/85 M. It won't land Thor, but it might be enough for Ray or Stroman.

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We only have $35mm even if Correa leaves? I was thinking we'd have a bit more than that.

I guess lux tax potentially coming down to $180mm makes a big diff. Just JV/ZG alone coming off the books is $55mm and Correa's 2021 salary adds to that. Unless you are taking into account other raises across the board eating into that.

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Just going off the estimate from baseball-reference of 145 M in 2022. It covered picking up options and arbitration. Then you drop down the payroll limit by about 30 M from 210 to 180. It could be worse though. Before the Yankees pick up anyone's options, they show at around 197 (17 M in tax hell IF the luxury tax limit drops) with arbitration and what not.

Farmer1906 said:

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If luxury tax drops down to 180 M as rumored then we should have about 35 M to play with. I think we can mix and match around 12 M to sign some bullpen arms (Graveman, Raley, Garcia, new FA) then use a larger portion (15-20M) to go after a starting pitcher. I would start by offering Thor, Ray, and maybe even Stroman the Lance contact of 5 years/85 M. It won't land Thor, but it might be enough for Ray or Stroman.

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Ray and Thor are both almost certain to get a QO, which likely crosses them off the Astros target list. Stroman is a possibility, though I think he's a bit overrated.

MaxPower said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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If luxury tax drops down to 180 M as rumored then we should have about 35 M to play with. I think we can mix and match around 12 M to sign some bullpen arms (Graveman, Raley, Garcia, new FA) then use a larger portion (15-20M) to go after a starting pitcher. I would start by offering Thor, Ray, and maybe even Stroman the Lance contact of 5 years/85 M. It won't land Thor, but it might be enough for Ray or Stroman.

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Ray and Thor are both almost certain to get a QO, which likely crosses them off the Astros target list. Stroman is a possibility, though I think he's a bit overrated.

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I assume we'd be offering Correa & JV QOs. We'll still come out on top. We can't expect to never sign anyone with a QO.

MaxPower said:

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3 Toed Pete said:

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I don't remember anymore what compensation is for losing a FA that is tendered a QO but wouldn't that be reason enough to make an offer to Verlander?

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Well if you're perfectly comfortable paying him $19M anyway then there's no reason not to. It would be a compensation pick between rounds 2 and 3 of the draft. Whether we offer a QO may tell us a lot about Carlos because I can't imagine Crane stomaching $19M to JV AND giving Carlos $300M.

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It didn't even occur to me that Verlander might accept a QO as I assumed he could get more than whatever it is (and I think he could get more than $19M), but I may be wrong, maybe very wrong, on that. Even at his age with his work ethic I think someone will gamble on him returning strongly from TJ but that's a guess.

As far as Carlos, unless his market value turns out to be well below what he and everyone else expects, I don't see any way he comes back because Crane is not going to give him more than 5-6 years max.

But it will be interesting this offseason to follow.

A few personal thoughts:
Leon is not ready for prime time, he really struggled in Sugarland
Pena is intriguing, If he can hit .260 with 15 homers, he's the ticket. He hit really well at Sugarland coming off a wrist fracture and is considered a top shelf defensive player
JV is long gone. I've heard from 2 different people that he was set to throw out the first pitch in Game 1, and Astro players told Crane ' F that guy, no way'
Graveman is the only reliever on that list I'd go all out on
I think 2019 and 40+ homers changed Bregman for the worst. I see him as a 25-30 homer guy, but he is chasing headlines and homers right now to his detriment
I'd trade Siri. A teaser who is wildly inconsistent and has big holes in his swing
I don't know what to think about CC. He's worth big money, and I think Crane will spend it, but CC and wife love them some high profile. He has been a great Astro, and I hope he stays