Farmer1906 said:

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While I agree, let's not act like Boston and a bunch of great arms they're about to throw at us.

E-Rod has a 4.74 ERA this year and is north of 4 for his career. He doesn't go deep. He's left-handed, but not particularly great at getting lefties out. He throws a fastball (4 seam, cutter, and 2 seam) about 70% of the time. We saw how that worked out for Lynn.

Pivetta has a 4.53 ERA this year and is north of 5 for his career. He doesn't go deep. He's spinny, but he gets hit hard and walks too many. Plus he's another fastball heavy guy (52% 4 seamers).

We should score a ton of runs these next 2 games. I'd argue they're no better than Urquidy and Greinke. Maybe worse.

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I agree they have issues coming up, but I think our issues loom larger. They have an ace in Eovaldi, which is 1 more than we have. They have someone who could start game 4 (the middle game of 3 in a row), while we are likely going to the bullpen. Neither team is well off right now, but they have the home field for the next 3 games and are set up better from a pitching standpoint given how long Eovaldi went in game 2. I'll be happy to be proven wrong, I just don't have a good feeling about this.

Eovaldi ain't no ace

My sportsbook has the series as a perfect -110 pickem

So, right now, aside from winning games, the biggest question is who will pitch game 4? Framber will get game 5 and he has the kind of stuff to dominate, if he's on. Any chance he could pitch game 4 since he only was in there a couple innings (64 pitches)? I know these are some big 'ifs,' but at the very least we have to be confident we score runs.

I think/hope the team is just looking at this as an opportunity to play with some house money. We've got $55mm tied up in two pitchers (JV/Greinke) who aren't producing for us. Our ace is hurt and out for the series. Our pitching this entire season was slightly above average at best even with production from Lance/Greinke factored in.

And yet, here we sit 7 wins away from winning the World Series. Although Boston is probably the favorite right now, they are certainly beatable. As are LA/ATL. It's baseball. We've gotten this far. Anything can happen.

The one thing I'd like to see moving forward is some creativity in how we deploy our pitchers. The general model of "get 6 innings from the starter and let Stanek/Graveman/Pressly bring us home" probably isn't a winning strategy at this point. Maybe Urquidy comes up big like he did in WS19 g4 but Boston has had a knack for jumping on starters all postseason.

I think we need to error on the side of quick hooks and basically empty the bullpen over the next few games. Cora is a master at finding tips/approaches for different pitchers, so I think we need to continually give them different looks. The effects of taxing the bullpen could be a consequential later in the series, but that problem is for another day. For now I hope we're creative and continually mix up all our arms, play match ups, etc. Rays style. I think that gives us a better chance to win rn than a traditional pitching model.

redline248 said:

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So, right now, aside from winning games, the biggest question is who will pitch game 4? Framber will get game 5 and he has the kind of stuff to dominate, if he's on. Any chance he could pitch game 4 since he only was in there a couple innings (64 pitches)? I know these are some big 'ifs,' but at the very least we have to be confident we score runs.

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If we win Game 3 tonight, it won't matter as much about game 4. But we have to win tonight, otherwise putting a huge amount of pressure on Framber in Game 5.

I know its a no **** sherlock take, but winning tonight would make the decision for game 4 a lot easier. If Urquidy can do what we know he is capable of, then I am perfectly fine throwing Big Greinke Energy in game 4. It might be the call no matter what tbh.

CFTXAG10 said:

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I know its a no **** sherlock take, but winning tonight would make the decision for game 4 a lot easier. If Urquidy can do what we know he is capable of, then I am perfectly fine throwing Big Greinke Energy in game 4. It might be the call no matter what tbh.

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If Greinke can give us 3 innings, I think we can take game 4.

But most important of all. The bats have to show up. Especially Yordan. We can't afford him to K, especially on those low and away pitches. He needs to be able to foul those off.

EastCoastAgNc said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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While I agree, let's not act like Boston and a bunch of great arms they're about to throw at us.

E-Rod has a 4.74 ERA this year and is north of 4 for his career. He doesn't go deep. He's left-handed, but not particularly great at getting lefties out. He throws a fastball (4 seam, cutter, and 2 seam) about 70% of the time. We saw how that worked out for Lynn.

Pivetta has a 4.53 ERA this year and is north of 5 for his career. He doesn't go deep. He's spinny, but he gets hit hard and walks too many. Plus he's another fastball heavy guy (52% 4 seamers).

We should score a ton of runs these next 2 games. I'd argue they're no better than Urquidy and Greinke. Maybe worse.

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I agree they have issues coming up, but I think our issues loom larger. They have an ace in Eovaldi, which is 1 more than we have. They have someone who could start game 4 (the middle game of 3 in a row), while we are likely going to the bullpen. Neither team is well off right now, but they have the home field for the next 3 games and are set up better from a pitching standpoint given how long Eovaldi went in game 2. I'll be happy to be proven wrong, I just don't have a good feeling about this.

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All Urquidy has to do is give us 5 innings of 3 run ball. That's very attainable. He's not going to give up lots of walks, so they're going to have to earn it against him. The first or second inning HR will most likely happen.

Game 4 is an easy decision for me. Greinke to start, Javier to go long. Get 5 out of them of 3 run ball. I think that's attainable too.

Game 5 is Framber. We need good Framber. That's the one I don't know about.

I absolutely think we can win 2 in Boston. I also can see losing all 3. I have know idea what's going to happen, but I think Urquidy is going to come up big tonight.

Probably gotta score at least 6-8 runs to get any wins these next few games.

I still wish we would move Tucker up in the lineup.

helloimustbegoing said:

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maca1028 said:

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Alot of talk on the dial about how it will take a miracle for us to take this series plus the fact that CC is guaranteed to be gone and the window starting to close. Our local radio guys need to nut up. We got this *****!

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Not to be Johnny Raincloud, but from the outside looking in, if a team's best starting pitcher BY FAR got hurt and was going to miss the series, and the #2 guy tried to pitch hurt and sucked ass, wouldn't you feel like that team as at a disadvantage as well?I love the Astros to death, but we won exactly 2 more games than the Red Sox during the year. If we can't find someone capable of getting outs, it is going to be a miracle to win the series.

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I know that the stakes are higher and there is much less leeway but this year's version of the 'Stros has dealt with any number of injuries to key players for significant portions of the season and were able to muddle through to its fifth straight ALCS. Hopefully someone unexpected steps up in the pen or the lineup responds like it can when everyone is producing like they are capable.

SW-14 said:

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So the Braves win, too?

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jkag89 said:

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helloimustbegoing said:

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maca1028 said:

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Alot of talk on the dial about how it will take a miracle for us to take this series plus the fact that CC is guaranteed to be gone and the window starting to close. Our local radio guys need to nut up. We got this *****!

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Not to be Johnny Raincloud, but from the outside looking in, if a team's best starting pitcher BY FAR got hurt and was going to miss the series, and the #2 guy tried to pitch hurt and sucked ass, wouldn't you feel like that team as at a disadvantage as well?I love the Astros to death, but we won exactly 2 more games than the Red Sox during the year. If we can't find someone capable of getting outs, it is going to be a miracle to win the series.

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I know that the stakes are higher and there is much less leeway but this year's version of the 'Stros has dealt with any number of injuries to key players for significant portions of the season and were able to muddle through to its fifth straight ALCS. Hopefully someone unexpected steps up in the pen or the lineup responds like it can when everyone is producing like they are capable.

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I'm not saying they can't win nor do I want them to lose, I'm just saying if it was another team seeing its rotation going down in flames due to injuries, most objective baseball fans would say, yeah, that team is in trouble. Of course they CAN win, and I'm still hopeful that they will, but LMJ is a devastating injury, no matter how you slice it and no matter how amazing the lineup is. When he pitches, you can legit think to yourself "3 runs wins this game for us."

My fondest wish remains that Carlos Correa throws an inning of relief throwing nothing but straight gas and gets the save as we clinch the series.

Quote:

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most objective baseball fans would say, yeah, that team is in trouble.

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I think to believe this team is in trouble at this point is overly pessimistic. Of course this team could be much better off but with a healthy LMJ or even having a better idea what ZG can give but this team has shown to be resilient. As stated by others on the board, we're not exactly facing a stout staff with the BoSox pen.

I hate when we play at Fenway.

I hate the stupid ass pole, the weird low OG fence in RF, and the metal garage door in CF.

Appreciate Fenway for what it is historically but hate watching us play games there. Just an odd setup where crazy shlt happens. Drives me nuts.

Bill Miller is the home plate ump tonight. Ranked 56th out of 99 in accuracy.

The umps have been named for the #DirtyWater vs #ForTheH series. Per @UmpScorecards, combined they were behind the plate in 14 BOS games with BOS favored in 5, winning 7. They were behind the plate in 12 HOU games with HOU favored in 5, winning 8. pic.twitter.com/j0WPFpaAIM

— Umpire Scorecards Analysis (@UmpAnalysis) October 15, 2021

Farmer1906 said:

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I get where you are coming from, but don't think of it that way.

We didn't luck into this spot. We didn't overachieve. Where are exactly where we should be and I expect to beat Boston.

Now, the LMJ thing kind of throws things for a loop. It moved the series from us having an advanatge to it being basically a pick em. Now, we didn't take care of home field and now we're a small dog. Its fine though. ATL finished like 8 back from LAD and yet they're taking it to them. **** happens in baseball in a "short" series.

Normally, I would give Cora the edge making these moves vs Dusty. But Dusty has pulled the right levers so far. The bullpen has brought their A game so it gives us a shot. I agree, we'll have to continue to do that. No reason to hold back. Burn everyone's arm up. If it means a trip to the WS to play for it all then you do it.

I also think Boston's defense is going to falter. They've been playing entirely too well in an area they're well below average at.

I also want Boston to start talking. Do something to light a fire under our guys. We feed off of it.

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Good post

What id like to see:

GM 3: Urkeeding come out strong with 6 innings,2 runs allowed
GM 4: Greinke strike up some sort of magic and have a quick inning to allow him to go 3, then hand it to Javier
GM 5: Framber be Framber and maybe struggle a little but manage to go 5+ with keeping us in the lead

If we can have something close to that I think we might be able to win 2.

Have we discussed, why not try and Start Javier? How much and when can Odo/Garcia pitch again?

Teddy Perkins said:

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Mathguy64 said:

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Having been to a game in Fenway, it may be a great old park but it sucks in several ways. Its crowded and very difficult to get in to, the seats blow, the concourses (ok thats generous to call them that) are impossible to navigate and the bathrooms smell like a 100 year old open sewer (which they are).

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Those are all the reasons I love it. It's a portal into another time.

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I get it. Its history But those bathrooms and walkways are brutal. Just brutal.

Mathguy64 said:

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Having been to a game in Fenway, it may be a great old park but it sucks in several ways. Its crowded and very difficult to get in to, the seats blow, the concourses (ok thats generous to call them that) are impossible to navigate and the bathrooms smell like a 100 year old open sewer (which they are).

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Fenway invokes a special feeling. Wriggly too. They're from another time and hold so much baseball history.

But you are right. Small seats. **** views. Small. Missing so many of the new amenities. It's more of a great place to visit, but I wouldn't want it as my home field.

Here is the latest Beat Report from Fenway Parkhttps://t.co/R6Rdy34Afy

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) October 18, 2021

I've seen some bad auto-captioning, but wow, this is a world-class butchering...

Man, Fenway has *way* better promotions than we do. pic.twitter.com/Letl7erQgT

— MLBOddStats (@TrollbotOuter) October 18, 2021

This whole thread is bipolar from pitch to pitch right now. No sound arguments allowed.

Example:
Throw a strike come on! Why are you walking everyone?!!
JD Martinez hits a strike for a grand slam.
I cant believe he threw him that good of a pitch to hit!

I mean...Pitchers should be able to throw quality strikes that aren't meatballs that can't get taken deep.