Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Tomorrow is must win.

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Absolutely. If we don't then it's time to start the fire sale. Afterall, no team has even come back from 4-5.

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For momentum's sake I think tomorrow is a must win. Obviously if we lose the season isn't over ... but in a 60 game season you need to win most of your series. Considering we are 2-5 in our last seven games I'd say tomorrow is must win.

Can we win the World Series if we lose tomorrow? Of course. But every game has more urgency now. So maybe "must win" wasn't the right word choice, but it's a very important game.

Don't really know how the A's have the tie breaker over us right now. We both have the same record, same record against division, and run differential is in our favor

the division is really struggling --- no team over .500

Joshua on the mound Sunday

Mr.Bond said:

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What a HORRIBLE ****ing throw Reddick..... Crosby Trash

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He's not even Crosby trash, he's a transplant. Don't be dissing my hometown like that.

So catching up on the box score it looks Dusty made some boneheaded decisions yesterday.

What'd I miss?

Ag_07 said:

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So catching up on the box score it looks Dusty made some boneheaded decisions yesterday.

What'd I miss?

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Are there specific things you're asking about? I can't think of anything I thought was that bad.

I wouldn't put yesterday on Dusty. Most of the key "50-50" strike calls went the Angels way. They scored a run and extended an inning on a super weakly hit chopper. We couldn't get anything going all day. Still probly would have won if Osuna hadn't gotten hurt. Gonna have games like that.

Osuna's longer term health is more concerning to me than losing yesterday. We'll win our share of ugly games at some point this year.

I don't think he did anything bad.

He visited Greinke and left him in. Then 2 runs scored. I think most preferred he stay in at the time. Myself included.

Osuna got hurt and went to Sneed. Not a ton of good options out there.

Then there the bunt crowd for extras. This is going to be a thing all year. Why is pretty much no one bunting across baseball?

I do think that yesterday should be Brantley's last day off until the rest of the guys get going. His bat was sorely missed in the middle of the order yesterday.

Appreciate that. Explains a lot.

Like I said I saw Greinke went 5.2 of 2 hit 2 run ball and was wondering why he was pulled.

Then I saw it was Sneed who blew it in the bottom of the 9th and wondering why Osuna was pulled? Should've recognized something was wrong when it said he only faced 2 batters. Still adjusting to that 3 batter rule.

When you aren't getting consistent production out of your 1-5 hitters and pitching minor league prospects out of the pen, I'd rather lay this on the guys on the field. I'm honestly not sure what we are going to do about our pitching situation but the studs have got to hit. Period. Dusty will be an easy target and he won't be perfect by any means but this team is going to have to hit its way to success this season without some key arms.

One other thing with the bunt crowd... I actually love small ball at times, especially at lower levels of baseball where fielding is more suspect. But the run expectancy data seems to show that over the long haul (law of large numbers) a runner on second with no outs is superior to a runner on third with one out. And when you consider the fact that MLB hitters these days are schooled in exit Velo and extra base power to defeat shifts, the guys aren't as skilled at bunting as they might need to be. Especially with guys throwing nasty sliders etc out to do the pen. Little time or effort is expended on bunting. Maybe in a one game situation, where you can throw out the big picture pool of data, it makes sense. Playoffs you see it from time to time.

Farmer1906 said:

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I don't think he did anything bad.

He visited Greinke and left him in. Then 2 runs scored. I think most preferred he stay in at the time. Myself included.

Osuna got hurt and went to Sneed. Not a ton of good options out there.

Then there the bunt crowd for extras. This is going to be a thing all year. Why is pretty much no one bunting across baseball?

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Mariners attempted a bunt in the 10th last night. Popped to the pitcher.

Happy to see Greinke cruise for most of the day yesterday. He's still got it. Maybe my favorite pitcher in the baseball to watch when he's "on". He's just gotta build his stamina back up. Ump squeezed him in the sixth and really bad break on the chopper that went through.

And glad Dusty stuck with him in the 6th even though it didn't work out. Wasn't too long ago that we paid big time for pulling him too soon

tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Tomorrow is must win.

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Absolutely. If we don't then it's time to start the fire sale. Afterall, no team has even come back from 4-5.

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For momentum's sake I think tomorrow is a must win. Obviously if we lose the season isn't over ... but in a 60 game season you need to win most of your series. Considering we are 2-5 in our last seven games I'd say tomorrow is must win.

Can we win the World Series if we lose tomorrow? Of course. But every game has more urgency now. So maybe "must win" wasn't the right word choice, but it's a very important game.

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Where are you getting this 2-5 in last 7 stuff?

mAgnoliAg said:

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tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Tomorrow is must win.

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Absolutely. If we don't then it's time to start the fire sale. Afterall, no team has even come back from 4-5.

---

For momentum's sake I think tomorrow is a must win. Obviously if we lose the season isn't over ... but in a 60 game season you need to win most of your series. Considering we are 2-5 in our last seven games I'd say tomorrow is must win.

Can we win the World Series if we lose tomorrow? Of course. But every game has more urgency now. So maybe "must win" wasn't the right word choice, but it's a very important game.

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Where are you getting this 2-5 in last 7 stuff?

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Guessing we should bet against the good guys today then?

mAgnoliAg said:

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tjack16 said:

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Farmer1906 said:

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tjack16 said:

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Tomorrow is must win.

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Absolutely. If we don't then it's time to start the fire sale. Afterall, no team has even come back from 4-5.

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For momentum's sake I think tomorrow is a must win. Obviously if we lose the season isn't over ... but in a 60 game season you need to win most of your series. Considering we are 2-5 in our last seven games I'd say tomorrow is must win.

Can we win the World Series if we lose tomorrow? Of course. But every game has more urgency now. So maybe "must win" wasn't the right word choice, but it's a very important game.

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Where are you getting this 2-5 in last 7 stuff?

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Sorry I was thinking 2-4 but saw Farmer say 4-5. Late night math

tjack16 said:

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Sorry I was thinking 2-4 but saw Farmer say 4-5. Late night math

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I think I just found my new handle in 6 months.

LateNightMathGuy69

so the Astros have played in 2 extra-inning games...that encompassed 5 "extra innings" with a runner starting on 2nd base.

the Astros have scored in 1 of the 5 extra innings.

I'd say it's fair to question the strategy.

or question the expected run %. Because right now the Astros scoring % is 20%

Angels won the game last night because their leadoff hitter in the 10th hit behind the runner. It turned out to be a single, but fundamentals won the game.

I'd say it's because he got a hit

W said:

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so the Astros have played in 2 extra-inning games...that encompassed 5 "extra innings" with a runner starting on 2nd base.

the Astros have scored in 1 of the 5 extra innings.

I'd say it's fair to question the strategy.

or question the expected run %. Because right now the Astros scoring % is 20%

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Nationals scored 4 in the top of 10 the other day, I think. We've scored 1 run in 5 innings...

What is the usual expectancy of scoring a run after a leadoff double?

that's what I'm talking about. I think the rate is around 60%

a 20% rate is absymal

Runner on 2B, 0 outs - at least 1 run 61% of time, expected runs 1.1

Runner on 3B, 1 out- at least 1 run 65% of the time, expected runs 0.93

If all you are playing for is one run in the bottom of an inning it's criminally stupid not to move the runner over. Besides your prob of scoring going up, you almost assuredly force the other team to walk the next hitter and keep their defense in a double play position up the middle and bring the corners in tight.

That is not factoring the chances of a failed sacrifice attempt, or defensive error for that matter.

I'm open to bunting when at home playing for one run to win, that's it

astros4545 said:

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That is not factoring the chances of a failed sacrifice attempt, or defensive error for that matter.

I'm open to bunting when at home playing for one run to win, that's it

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Actually it is. It's not simulated outcomes. That is the historical set of outcomes from 1957 to 2015 from https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/runsperinning.html

I'd be mad if I was a Phillies player You didn't do anything wrong and haven't had any positive tests for days, but yet you are still way behind everybody else

astros4545 said:

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I'd say it's because he got a hit

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yes, but did he get the single to right field...because he wasn't trying to hit the ball into the Pacific Ocean?

tjack16 said:

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I'd be mad if I was a Phillies player You didn't do anything wrong and haven't had any positive tests for days, but yet you are still way behind everybody else

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Something tells me there is more going on there than they are saying. Shutting them down for a coach and a clubhouse attendant doesn't seem like a reason to sit a team for 6 games and counting.

Uh oh. Hope this isn't serious.

The average runs scored in an inning where the lead off runner is on 2B is 1.5.

Our 1 run in 5 innings is abysmal.

Off day for Correa