A look at how good the Astros, Yankees & Dodgers are

1,769 Views | 6 Replies | Last: 4 yr ago by Mathguy64
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
This is a very interesting article breaking down how good these three teams are and what it would take to put together a comparable team. The article is stating that even if you cherry picked the stars from the Pirates, Rockies, Mariners, O's, Blue Jays, Royals, Tigers and Marlins - you wouldn't statistically have a better team/record than the Astros, Yankees or Dodgers.

A few quotes:

Quote:

Here were the rules: We built 25-man rosters for the Astros, Yankees, Dodgers and Tigeroyiolins -- on second thought, that's the only time we'll attempt to call them that. Henceforth, they will be the Superteam -- based entirely on 2019 stats: a starter at every position, four bench players covering infield, outfield and catcher, a four-man starting rotation (because only four are needed in the postseason) and an eight-man bullpen. We prorated each player's 2019 WAR for a full, healthy season in the role he is assigned to: 600 plate appearances for starters (except 500 for the catcher), 250 for bench players, 175 innings for starting pitchers and 65 for relievers (except 95 for one designated swingman).* The plan was to see how many bad teams it takes to compete with the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees.

Quote:

Superteam 5: Superteam 4 + Pirates. Add Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds, Jacob Stallings and Felipe Vazquez. Remove Ryan McMahon, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Pedro Severino and Shawn Armstrong.
Total WAR: 72.9. Ahead of the Dodgers and somehow still behind the Astros.
Do. I. Hear. Niiiiiiine teams?

Quote:

The Astros have the two best starting pitchers, maybe the three best. They have, easily, the best player (in Bregman), and by WAR per plate appearance this year they have the three best (Bregman, Alvarez, Springer). They have five of the top seven, with only Trevor Story and Bo Bichette reaching 5 WAR per 600 plate appearances on the Superteam side. While depth eventually will favor the Superteam, all of the 104-win teams have built extremely deep 25-man rosters. Of our original Superteam 1 players, maybe half would have made the Dodgers' Opening Day roster.

The point is, this is really some kind of era we're living in. You're seeing some of the worst baseball that's ever been played. The Tigers actually don't have a single above-average hitter, in any number of plate appearances above two. And you're seeing some of the best baseball that's ever been played. According to Baseball Prospectus' third-order winning percentages, this year's Astros and Dodgers actually are the two best teams since 1950. It's amazing that these teams have coexisted in the same league, occasionally playing against each other, standing next to each other, and had it even look like baseball at all. It's a baseball miracle.
But that's not the payoff for this era. The payoff is the postseason, when as many as five 100-win teams -- and three historically great ones -- are going to smash into each other, with barely a below-average player in the bunch. Truly, it can't get here fast enough.


https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27593569/how-many-bad-teams-take-beat-astros-dodgers-yankees
aggiederelict
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Don't mean a thing if you don't get that ring.
MtnAg08
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
What's really funny is using the bottom 4 teams they say the best player is Villar, a guy who came up with us and was shipped out because we didn't have a spot for him. So not only are we exponentially better than the worst teams, we groomed the best player for them too.
W
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
30% of MLB teams are likely to either win 100 or lose 100 this season.

9 of 30 teams.

that has to be a standard deviation record of some kind.

the Tigers with 104 losses and the Orioles with 100 losses are already in the clubhouse
Baseball-Junkie
How long do you want to ignore this user?
aggiederelict said:

Don't mean a thing if you don't get that ring.


I hope the Astros win it, but one of those three will win it.
halfastros81
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
There are obviously scenarios where none of the three get the ring but that's got to statistically be an extremely low probability.

Still.... Teams get hot and others get cold at the right and wrong times respectively.

Given the Astros three top flight
starters and essentially no glaring
Weaknesses from 1 thru 9 in the batting order I like their chances but it's baseball.... you never know.
Big Shooter
How long do you want to ignore this user?
Staff
AG
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-mlb-predictions/?ex_cid=rrpromo

The top three have a combined 66% chance to win the World Series. The field has a 34% chance. That's incredible.

Everyone seems to think the Dodgers have a cakewalk to the National League pennant this year, while Houston and New York figure to be on a collision course to meet in the ALCS. As a Dodger fan, I still think that Atlanta is a really good team. Atlanta is only given a 9% chance to win it all according to the FiveThirtyEight. They lack the top tier starters that Houston and Los Angeles feature, but like you said: it's baseball. Anything can happen once the calendar turns to October. That's what makes this game the best one in the world!
Mathguy64
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
Frangraphs has:
Astros - 32.5%
NYY - 16.3%
LAD - 15.3%

That's 64.1% there

Then Atlanta at 8.2% and the Twins at 7.6% are the next two with the rest spread out behind them.
Refresh
Page 1 of 1
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.