03_Aggie said:

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wangus12 said:

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I heard on the radio yesterday with people talking about how in 10 years it won't be a very big salary and all I could think was how are they gonna make salaries bigger. People aren't attending games at any higher rate and if they try to raise ticket prices too much, the attendance will drop. Only option is having richer owner, but I'm not sure that's gonna happen either.

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I assumed, for most sports, TV revenue continues to be the largest source of revenue for these teams?

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Yeah, but it'll be interesting to see how cord cutting effects those revenues.

There are tons of people who pay for the sports channels that don't watch them. The more those people leave cable, the worse off all sports leagues are. Theres going to be a bubble there in the next 5-10 years.

I have loved baseball all my life. My dad and I drove from Fort Stockton to Houston to see the Phillies and Colt 45's in 1964. My interest in MLB is waning though. This offseason has been about money more than any I can recall. This spring has been $20MM/year guys *****ing about how unfair the market is. Give me a break. They're as off putting as Hollywood these days.

I've loved baseball my whole life too and you're missing the point of this offseason. No matter what you think about the total dollar amounts the complaining this offseason from the players was in regards to the fact that about 20 teams under the luxury tax with needs in the outfield/infield didn't even kick the tires on talking to Machado and Harper. That signals that there is something systemically wrong with the free agent system in the game when teams are refusing to even have a conversation with 26 year old FAs with MVP/All Star credentials.

And what is your opposition to the free market? Would you prefer the players made $5 million and the owner reaped extra profits? What difference does it make to you if the players are making a lot of money instead of the owners?

AggieEP said:

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I've loved baseball my whole life too and you're missing the point of this offseason. No matter what you think about the total dollar amounts the complaining this offseason from the players was in regards to the fact that about 20 teams under the luxury tax with needs in the outfield/infield didn't even kick the tires on talking to Machado and Harper. That signals that there is something systemically wrong with the free agent system in the game when teams are refusing to even have a conversation with 26 year old FAs with MVP/All Star credentials.

And what is your opposition to the free market? Would you prefer the players made $5 million and the owner reaped extra profits? What difference does it make to you if the players are making a lot of money instead of the owners?

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Are you a doctor or a lawyer?

Salaries aren't increasing with profits.

There are a few problems:
1. Stars make very little in the beginning of their career and have longest contracts to reach free agency.
2. Rebuilding based around cheap talent makes spending big money pointless for about half the clubs any given year, hence what we saw this year.
3. There is no incentive for rebuilding teams to care. They are incentivized to lose (draft).

Add a salary minimum and things change, even if it is lots more guys on 1-2 year deals.

I don't care what anyone makes. I'd rather talk baseball rather than economics. Like it used to be you know?

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What difference does it make to you if the players are making a lot of money instead of the owners?

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To me, nothing but to the fans, a lot. Remember Tom Hicks? Franchises go into years long droughts when owners stop making money and get themselves into bad contracts. You can't surround an outfielder with 7 spares and a weak pitching staff and expect good results over a long baseball season and 3 rounds of playoffs. You don't know what your team is going to look like in 5 years, what your pitching staff will be, how stocked your farm system will be, etc. But the Phillies DO know they'll only be less than a third of their way into this contract, with about 225 mil. left to pay ONE player. I question whether by then that player will be a top 5 outfielder in the National League, much less top 5 player in all of baseball, but we'll see.

Is he even top 5 now?

https://deadspin.com/bryce-harper-at-his-phillies-press-conference-we-want-1833012464?utm_medium=socialflow&utm_source=deadspin_facebook&utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_facebook&fbclid=IwAR3JsWLKP_LgkGlZ5aDk9l54H1D-1Em1zHpvbDQ4pgMPDjQWkE9ZAbUv3p4

Lol!

We complain how much the players make because we see how big the contracts are. We have no clue how much the owners make. I haven't seen any of them living under bridges like JR Richard did so I'm going to assume they are doing ok.....

Maybe I'm missing something, but I dont see resentment about his salary just on its own. The question/issue/controversy comes in when a team is handcuffed on spending elsewhere because they have so much committed to a guy that is no longer performing anywhere near his paper. Harper's recent fall-off (which he may gery well rebound from), injury history, and the fact they'll pay him until he's 40 years old all raise that question.

I don't see how they will be handcuffed.

Harper will be 12th highest paid player in 2020.
Phillies will have plenty of money to spend around him

Petty as it is, I hope Bruce gets a healthy mix of boos and cheers today at the game. A lot of that post feels hollow with him not really negotiating too much with the Nats, from what I heard. I hope the team gets better over the longterm without him.

If I opened a coffee shop and decided to charge $5 per beverage, pay my employees $10/hr, pay $3000/month rent, sell t-shirts advertising my product, etc...at the end of the day my business wasn't profitable, I'd shut it down, or not open it in the first place.

Nobody made the Phillies pay this money.

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him not really negotiating too much with the Nats

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He did negotiate with them.

$100 million of their offer was deferred. He wouldn't be fully paid on that deal until he was 60.

The phillies made a MUCH better offer

Harper booed in Philly today.

the Phillies (16-13) are in 1st place at the end of April.

Harper has 6 HR and 20 RBI. OPS is .878.

his BA is .240...and he is striking out a ton...38 K's in the first month

looking at Fangraphs he is currently the #50 ranked position player across baseball in terms of WAR.....

He's been good. Probably not 26 M dollar good, but it's still early.

Quick Update:

Bryce Harper fWAR of 3.1 ranks him 38th in MLB, one behind Eduardo Escobar (3 years, $21 million) and one ahead of Christian Vazquez (3 years, $13 million).

Manny Machado fWAR of 2.5 ranks him 59th in MLB, one behind Eugenio Suarez and one ahead of Jose Altuve (who has missed 30+ games this year).

Dallas Kuechel is hard to judge based on fWAR because he stupidly held out thinking that he would get a big deal, but he's 3-5 with a 4.34 ERA (FIP 4.97).

The other free agency headliner, Craig Kimbrel, is 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA (7.49 FIP!). K/BB ratio is plummeting this year too. WTF were the Cubs thinking?

The Cubs were thinking "our bullpen is complete trash and Kimbrel has a history of being pretty good."

The evidence is very plain to see and it goes back decades. Long, big money contracts do not work out well.

it's official...the Phillies (79-77) have been eliminated.

the team will miss the playoffs in Year 1 of the Harper era.

Harper stayed healthy and had a very good season. So did J.T. Realmuto.

but the Phillies only had 2 starting pitchers with ERA's below 4.50

we'll see how much money the Phillies spend in the offseason.

but they have 3 bad contracts on the books: Arrieta, McCutchen, and Segura.

those 3 aging veterans will make between $50 MM & $60 MM combined for 2020 and 2021

the Phillies finished 81-81

W said:

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the Phillies finished 81-81

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But they would have been 76-86 without him.

W said:

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so the bottomline for the Phillies...4 years in to Harper's 13-year mega-contract

year 1...missed playoffs
year 2...missed playoffs
year 3...missed playoffs
year 4...lost in world series

win totals:

year 1...81 wins
year 2...COVID under .500
year 3...82 wins
year 4...87 wins

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6 years before Harper.

It's been a good deal for Phillies. And they are set to spend more.

tjack16 said:

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He led them to a pennant and won an MVP with them in his contract so far.

I'd say it's been worth it. I also think there's a good shot they are back in the World Series soon with their core.

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I definitely agree he's been worth it....now. But the thing of these 13 year contracts is it's almost never worth it towards the end. He has 9 years left. And he's not a smooth swinging slugger, imo. He has a violent ass swing. Who knows how long he can maintain that...

htxag09 said:

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tjack16 said:

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He led them to a pennant and won an MVP with them in his contract so far.

I'd say it's been worth it. I also think there's a good shot they are back in the World Series soon with their core.

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I definitely agree he's been worth it....now. But the thing of these 13 year contracts is it's almost never worth it towards the end. He has 9 years left. And he's not a smooth swinging slugger, imo. He has a violent ass swing. Who knows how long he can maintain that...

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Now we learn of Tommy John surgery for Harper? Yikes. That may be a consequence of the swing you referred to.