DVC2010 said:

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Altuve's contact is just as good as last year's.

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Bump for Farmer.

So basically the majority of the team is underperforming last year. Could have fooled me.

That's good stuff. His hard contact is actually up. I would not have guess that. Sounds like he's had some bad luck.

One thing it didn't meantion (unless I missed it. I skipped over the stolen base stuff) is launch angle. I wonder what % of his hard contact is getting elevated. They did mention barrels and it is a little down, but nothing significant.

I wonder if the lack of power across the lineup has to do with the lack of FBs the guys are getting. Seems like teams have figured that out and we're seeing a lot of offspeed and soft soft. Almost seems like we're being pitched backwards often. Lot of offspeed in FB counts and vice versa.

I wonder what our team avg exit velo is compared to what it was last year.

That's what I think is the case. I'm sure the numbers would show we are seeing the same % FB. However, it seems like we are getting pitched backwards. Every time we get in a hitters count and take a hack we get an offspeed pitch.

This might be a big reason why our chase percentage is up this year

Ag_07 said:

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I wonder if the lack of power across the lineup has to do with the lack of FBs the guys are getting. Seems like teams have figured that out and we're seeing a lot of offspeed and soft soft. Almost seems like we're being pitched backwards often. Lot of offspeed in FB counts and vice versa.

I wonder what our team avg exit velo is compared to what it was last year.

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Here is a good list that I found. It shows the expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA of all our players. The expected numbers are based on exit velocity and launch angle. As you can see, a lot of our expected power numbers are higher than the actual, including Altuve having a 70 point difference, Bregman having over a 100 point difference, and Springer having an 85 point difference between actual slugging percentage and expected. This would suggest that Altuve, Bregman, and Springer have been unlucky with their hard hit balls.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=HOU&min=25

Quote:

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This would suggest that Altuve, Bregman, and Springer have been unlucky with their hard hit balls.

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Or it suggest that stat is bogus

Why do you think it is bogus?

rosco511 said:

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Ag_07 said:

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I wonder if the lack of power across the lineup has to do with the lack of FBs the guys are getting. Seems like teams have figured that out and we're seeing a lot of offspeed and soft soft. Almost seems like we're being pitched backwards often. Lot of offspeed in FB counts and vice versa.

I wonder what our team avg exit velo is compared to what it was last year.

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Here is a good list that I found. It shows the expected batting average, slugging percentage, and wOBA of all our players. The expected numbers are based on exit velocity and launch angle. As you can see, a lot of our expected power numbers are higher than the actual, including Altuve having a 70 point difference, Bregman having over a 100 point difference, and Springer having an 85 point difference between actual slugging percentage and expected. This would suggest that Altuve, Bregman, and Springer have been unlucky with their hard hit balls.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2018&position=&team=HOU&min=25

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Great link!

I think it's bogus because the expected is contrary to the actual observed. I would rather focus on observed and take it as it is. Nobody thought Altuve was just lucky when he won the batting title.

And I'm not panicking, we are on pace to win a 100 games and we haven't hit well. Times are food.

I am not following your logic. Can one not observe that a player might have hit into some hard hit outs or hit some hard singles right at people and perhaps done this more than expected? The stat simply shows that based on expected outcome of similar exit velocity and launch angle that each player would have been expected to have more extra base hits than they currently have produced.

I think it helps to look at the projections and stuff a bit differently.

It's not an indicator of results but it's more an indicator that the pieces are there. A player is right there as far as timing, seeing the ball, and making contact (Altuve) rather than being overmatched and needing serious overhauls (Gattis two weeks ago).

Just my 0.02 of how these advanced stats and projections should be looked at.

As for why we care, the advanced stats are a lot better at predicting future performance than the traditional ones.

OK...Off day rant time

I can't be the only one who gets chapped when I hear people say "JV threw a complete game shutout."

A shutout is a complete game. It's not a shutout if not's a complete game. You wouldn't say he threw a complete game no-hitter.

I want to stop and correct everyone I hear that says that. So fckin frustrating.

Not all complete games are shut outs. Not all shut outs are complete games by the starter

BowSowy said:

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Not all complete games are shut outs. Not all shut outs are complete games by the starter

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How?

The Astros can shut out an opponent but if Verlander threw a shutout it's a complete game. Otherwise it's just X.X scoreless innings.

A pitcher can't throw a shutout that isn't a complete game.

Right??

Ag_07 said:

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BowSowy said:

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Not all complete games are shut outs. Not all shut outs are complete games by the starter

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How?

The Astros can shut out an opponent but if Verlander threw a shutout it's a complete game. Otherwise it's just X.X scoreless innings.

A pitcher can't throw a shutout that isn't a complete game.

Right??

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He just means you can have a shutout by committee.

Projections based on statcast are the best kind and I didn't even know they had those public. Thanks again for the link.

YellAg2004 said:

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WelchAg said:

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Are you one of those that gets pissed on when people call it an ATM machine?

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And then they ask you for your PIN number?

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I hate both of these things.

It's definitely off day Astros Thread day if we're arguing about shutouts vs complete games wordage and ATM machines and PIN numbers.

Off day question. How many people tear up a little at the end of Major League? I know that movie is a comedy but that ending is so damn sports good and Bob Eucker's call at the end is so real sounding. Dude deserved the Oscar for that.

astros4545 said:

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I was always more of a Chet Stedmond guy

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Rocket was the man

JABQ04 said:

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It's definitely off day Astros Thread day if we're arguing about shutouts vs complete games wordage and ATM machines and PIN numbers.

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Refer back to your manual on "Astros Off Day Threads", 04...sheesh.