3,000 hits

13,552 Views | 98 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by 94chem
Aggie1205
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Markakis to the DL for only the second time in his career after being hit with a pitch last night.
Farmer1906
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Altuve reached 1500 hits at 29 years and 88 days old. He's in the middle of his 9th season. He should have another 50-70 more hits this year. If he plays another 10 years he'd need to average around 145 to reach the milestone. If he gets back to his 200 hit ways (for the next 2-3 years) then he could reach 3000 only needing to average around 125 hits a year after that.
_lefraud_
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Well 2020 sticks a fork in our favorite average outfielders quest for 3000...thanks Covid.

Updated #s in OP.
AggieEP
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First thought I had when I saw Markakis was going to sit out this year was this thread.

I think it's even possible that we never see him play again. The track record of ball players taking a year off and then coming back is pretty short.

With the short season, Snitker might've toldMarkakis he was going to platoon him/bringing off the bench and my guess is that Markakis said no thanks to playing 10-15 games.
AggieEP
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And in general, this one season may mean we dont see another hitter get to 3000 for the next 20 years.

Altuve and Trout remain the most likely, but for anyone to lose 100 games of hits (around 130 of a season total) now means you have to get 3130 (essentially) to get to 3000. It's especially harmful for them because its 100 games in the middle of their primes.
AggieEP
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Markakis returns! And hits a walk off homer

All he needs to do now is carry them to the world series, and have a memorable series and he's back in the conversation again. Keep piling up those hits Nick!
Tibbers
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Always glad to see Markakis do well. He was such a great Oriole. Its a shame we didn't keep him and Cruz.

Congrats Braves!
Fat Bib Fortuna
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AggieEP said:

And in general, this one season may mean we dont see another hitter get to 3000 for the next 20 years.

Altuve and Trout remain the most likely, but for anyone to lose 100 games of hits (around 130 of a season total) now means you have to get 3130 (essentially) to get to 3000. It's especially harmful for them because its 100 games in the middle of their primes.

There is no way Trout gets to 3,000 hits unless he plays well past 40. He's had zero seasons of 200 hits. He walks too much (not a bad thing) to get to 3,000 hits. He's averaging 179 hits per 162 games through the first 10 years of his career.

He's at 1,338 hits through 1,210 games. At that pace, he'd have to play in 1,503 more games to reach 3,000. That's 9.3 seasons without missing a single game and keeping the exact same level of production he's already had.

The last three seasons, he's missed 48, 24, and 28 games. He turned 29 two days ago.He'll be a clear but HOFer but 3,000 hits won't be part of the resume.


AggieEP
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Trout's contract runs for like 11 more years. I'm not saying I'm willing to lay down money that he gets to 3000. But if he actually plays 11 more years he only has to average 140ish hits a year to get to 3000. If he has 3-4 more monster years then the math starts to get really favorable for him.

But as you mentioned, health is a major factor. If he cant stay healthy the odds go down dramatically.
Aggie1205
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Markakis recently hit his 500th double. Only the 64th player of all time and the 4th active.
_lefraud_
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Cano suspended for 2021.
Farmer1906
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PacifistAg said:

The only name that I could possibly add, and it would be a long shot, is McCutchen. He's 30 and at 1,431. He'd have to avg 160 hits for the next 10 years, so extremely unlikely. Andrus is an interesting one, especially since he really seems to be entering his prime. It's still a long shot, but more doable than McCutchen.

Altuve and Trout are the obvious front runners though.


What a tough couple seasons for Altuve when it comes to racking up hits. He's now 30 with just over 1600. Between the shortened season, injuries, and becoming more of a power hitter compared to what he was he's only averaged 120 hits a year over the last 3 years. If he plays another 10 years he's going to need to average 139 per. If he only plays 8 more then 174. He needs another 200+ hit season in 2021 to get him back on track.
_lefraud_
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But how many trashcans?
Farmer1906
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Give it a rest. Anyone who's actually following this knows Altuve didn't use the trashcans.
vette
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I got roasted 3 years ago on this thread for suggesting that Elvis could reach 3,000 hits, or that he had as decent of a chance as Altuve. Elvis (31 y/o) - 1,743 hits. Altuve (30 y/o) - 1,610 hits

I stand by my comments 3 years ago
_lefraud_
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As you should...

Elvis needs to average around 150 hits a season for another 8 years. That's just simply not going to happen.

Altuve needs a big rebound, and play well into his late 30s or he too will fall short of reaching 3,000.
Farmer1906
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Altuve had to take several steps back and get hurt to put them on a similar pace.
vette
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Farmer1906 said:

Altuve had to take several steps back and get hurt to put them on a similar pace.
As did Elvis in 2018... In fact Altuve has played more games than Elvis in 2018-2020 (309 to 273), so that is not a good reason
vette
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I agree that Elvis getting 150 hits over the next 8 years is probably not likely. His injury season of 2018 and shortened season of 2020 doesn't help. However, my initial point in 2017 was that it was silly to call Altuve "a front runner" and Elvis "a long shot" as the last 3 years have proven.
_lefraud_
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When you made the post (2017), Elvis was averaging around 160 hits a season. Elvis did have a career year in 2017 with 191 hits, but then that went back down to 165 in 2019.

Altuve was in the middle of his 4th straight 200+ hit season in 2017, and was averaging around 190 hits a season.

Maybe Altuve being a "front runner" and Elvis being "doable" wasn't the best way to word it. But at the very least, in 2017 (and 2020 for that matter), the odds for Altuve getting to 3,000 was/is better than those for Elvis.
astros4545
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vette said:

I agree that Elvis getting 150 hits over the next 8 years is probably not likely. His injury season of 2018 and shortened season of 2020 doesn't help. However, my initial point in 2017 was that it was silly to call Altuve "a front runner" and Elvis "a long shot" as the last 3 years have proven.


Hello Captain hindsight
JJxvi
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Its still absurd to think Elvis Andrus has as close to as good of a shot now. Based on his profile as a player there is virtually zero chance that 7-10 years from now that Elvis Andrus will still be a starter. While Altuve doesn't look as good now as he did 3 years ago, the quality of his bat (especially better power) allows for at least the slim possibility that he will be good enough to be out there long enough to get 5000 more at bats.
Squirrel Master
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Saw this thread and remembered a lengthy post I had on the topic a while and was curious to see what new conversation there was. Turns out, it wasn't on this thread, but on an Ichiro retirement thread.

This was written before the 2019 season:
Quote:

Key to getting to 3000 hits (or any of the major rare benchmark numbers) is performance deep into the career, past the point that everyone else starts seeing significant drop offs. There are plenty of people who can put up nice numbers in their 20s, doing it in the mid to late 30s is hard. For example, Altuve is behind Elvis Andrus through their Age 28 seasons in hits, not that I think Andrus is likely to challenge to 3000 either.

Altuve is way ahead of where Biggio was through his Age 28 season, but Biggio had nearly 1100 hits from Age 35 season on.

Altuve is comparable to where both Jeter and Beltre were through their Age 28 seasons, those two had around 950 and 750 hits, respectively, from Age 35 on.

Altuve is behind ARod and Pujols were at Age 28, both them slowed production in their late 30s before getting there at 39 and 38.

Ichiro is tough to use as a comparison since he didn't make his debut til 27, but he had over 200 hits each of his first 10 seasons(!), including some monster numbers in there (262!), and broke 3000 in his Age 44 season.

Now lets compare to a few other guys who didn't get/haven't gotten there:

Dustin Pedroia - a couple hundred behind Altuve through Age 28, but still respectable (ahead of Biggio). Since then he's a had two 190+ hit seasons, but injuries have derailed him, not sure how much he has left in the tank at all. He's just over 1800 hits heading into his Age 35 season.

Michael Young - a later MLB debut than Altuve so behind him at Age 28 by a couple hundred, but put up very comparable hit numbers in his prime as Altuve (5 straight seasons of 200 or more). Didn't suffer any significant decline until his final season when he got 145 hits in 123 games. Retired after Age 36 season over 600 short of 3K.

Miguel Cabrera - About 180 hits ahead of Altuve through Age 28 season, now at 36 he needs 324 more hits and I'm not sure if he's gonna be able to limp there.

Robinson Cano - About 150 behind Altuve at Age 28 season, now at 35 he needs over 500 hits. Before his suspension this past year, he'd been remarkable consistent through his early 30s, but will now need to maintain for several more years to get there.

So comparing to all these guys, Altuve can definitely get there. But at his current pace, it'll take to his Age 37 season, longer if he ever slows down or misses meaningful time. It's tough to call that a lock. 3000 hits is really hard.
Update to a few of these numbers:
Cabrera - Now through his Age 37 season, he's 134 hits shy of 3000. To make it in 2020, he'll need to basically repeat his 2019 output, when he got 139 hits playing in 136 games, the most games he'd appeared in since he was 33. He should make it, even if he has to limp into 2022 to finish it up as he turns 39.

Altuve - Injury bothered 2019 and short 2020 did not help him at all. Now through his Age 30 season at only 1610 hits, I want to say he has lost his real chance at 3000. At his 140 game average (about what he's been playing for a few years now) of 175 hits, he'll need 8 full seasons to get to 3000. He hasn't been able to get that hit average for few years now though. To make it, he'll need to play and be a regular in the lineup probably until he's 40. Doable, but his recent decline isn't good for the hopeful. B-R, for example, is only projecting 133 hits for him in 2021. That's not gonna cut it.

Andrus - Unlike Altuve, he had a nice 2019 hit total-wise, but 2020 was brutal. Now through his Age 31 season, he's only at 1743 hits. He's no longer planned to be an everyday player for the Rangers, and reaching 2000 is likely his only realistic hit goal.

3000 hits is going to become like 300 wins, just too difficult for modern era players. With current hitting and pitching strategies, large hit totals are going to be increasingly rare. Additionally, as the push to use younger, cheaper talent increases, fewer guys are going to be getting contracts to be regulars into their mid 30s and beyond.
Ag_07
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Yeah the resting of players is gonna make a difference.

IE if Altuve is on teams that are perennial contenders he'll be sitting out a good handful of games making it tougher.

I don't think it'll be as rare as 300 win guys because that's basically impossible now but it'll much more difficult.

_lefraud_
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Yea, Kershaw is really the only pitcher out there that has an outside shot of 300 wins...a very outside shot, but a shot no less.

We may not see another 300 game winner...EVER.
Big Al 1992
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JV would've been close but missing 2020 and 2021 means that quest is over.
McGibblets
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AggieEP said:

First thought I had when I saw Markakis was going to sit out this year was this thread.

I think it's even possible that we never see him play again.


Good call. Markakis retires
AggieEP
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Great career for Markakis and sad to see him go. Now that I live in Georgia I have had the pleasure of watching the Braves for a few years and Markakis has always been one of my favorites on the team.

It's yet another example though of what happens to ballplayers over 35 years old these days. Not many guys able to stick around like they used to. There are a number of factors that play into this, but it makes it so much more unlikely that we'll see 3000 hitters in the future.

It seems as if Cabrera will make it even if he has to be a negative WAR player to do it but it's going to be a long wait for the next guy to make it. Cano probably would have made it if not for his suspension + the short 2020 season. But barring a miracle I don't see him getting enough opportunities to play in order to get there now.

I still think Trout will make it, just his comments on his defensive metrics this off season lets me know he really is aware of stats, and 3000 is a mount rushmore stat along with 500 homeruns. I think he'll make it because he wants to make it.

Mookie Betts is an interesting one too, he just signed a 13 year extension and is at 1029 hits right now. To get to 3000 he just has to average 153 hits per season. Just like with Trout, if he can have like 4 monster seasons right now in his prime and get like 750 hits over the next 4 seasons, then he only has to average 138 over the last 9 years of the deal.

Trout and Betts will be interesting to watch (and maybe Machado and Harper as well), because we might start seeing that the only guys that can really get to 3000 are guys that sign these 10-14 year contracts when they are in their prime. Cabrera and Pujols would have been outright cut by now if their place on the roster had anything to do with their contributions to winning, but their long term contracts are what kept them in the lineup.

The fact that Altuve won't get a contract like that makes me think his chances are basically zero.
94chem
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While the players take care of themselves better these days, part of that care is due to reduced playing time during their careers, and even though they could play more years, the money makes it hard to keep going until the early 40's. I don't know if anybody was watching the way Beltre finished, but it was like a great prizefighter who knew there was one more round. I think he hit 8 HR in September, after being injured much of the year. He retired with 478, I think. The dude could still mash. He could have easily broken 500 with another season or 2 at DH. But why would a first ballot HOF player want to do that unless it was for a contender? Like Kershaw, a first ballot HOF - 240, 260, 300 wins...who cares? Same player.
94chem,
That, sir, was the greatest post in the history of TexAgs. I salute you. -- Dough
 
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