Judge definitely looked superhuman, but Sano is just a big guy.

Either way, one of the best derbys ive watched.

aggie1906 said:

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Home runs are up.

Guys are looking huge.

This doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Roids may very well be back in the game.

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That's just the increasing specialization in sports.

OL are bigger and faster than ever. Guys like Myles Garrett run 4.5-4.6s at 260 pounds. LeBron James is a runaway freight train with the grace of a ballerina.

Judge is 6'7" 280 pounds and has one of the smoothest swings you'll ever see.

Nuke LaLoosh said:

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Judge definitely looked superhuman, but Sano is just a big guy.

Either way, one of the best derbys ive watched.

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Not trying to call you out, but I heard that a lot back then too.

aggie1906 said:

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Nuke LaLoosh said:

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Judge definitely looked superhuman, but Sano is just a big guy.

Either way, one of the best derbys ive watched.

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Not trying to call you out, but I heard that a lot back then too.

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He's like... fat big, not roid big. He's no McGwire, Sosa, or Bonds is basically what I'm saying.

aggie1906 said:

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Home runs are up.

Guys are looking huge.

This doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Roids may very well be back in the game.

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Maybe, maybe not. Either way, it's not bad for the game. Bonds, Sosa and McGwire all belong in the Hall of Fame.

tremble said:

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aggie1906 said:

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Home runs are up.

Guys are looking huge.

This doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Roids may very well be back in the game.

---

That's just the increasing specialization in sports.

OL are bigger and faster than ever. Guys like Myles Garrett run 4.5-4.6s at 260 pounds. LeBron James is a runaway freight train with the grace of a ballerina.

Judge is 6'7" 280 pounds and has one of the smoothest swings you'll ever see.

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Judge is just one guy. The whole derby looked nuts. Home runs are at an all time high.

HR per game
2017 - 1.26 (#1)
2016 - 1.16 (#3)
-
2001 - 1.12 (#6)
2000 - 1.17 (#2)
1999 - 1.14 (#4)

I know the game has changed. In general home runs / slug are valued more, while avg is valued less but I still don't think that is the only reason for the spike.

Obviously, I have no proof, but I feel like I've seen all this before.

Nuke LaLoosh said:

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aggie1906 said:

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Nuke LaLoosh said:

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Judge definitely looked superhuman, but Sano is just a big guy.

Either way, one of the best derbys ive watched.

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Not trying to call you out, but I heard that a lot back then too.

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He's like... fat big, not roid big. He's no McGwire, Sosa, or Bonds is basically what I'm saying.

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Maybe Papi big?

My money is still on the balls having changed somewhat in the last year or two.

People who study the issue more say that MLB has cranked down on the tolerance of the stitching on the ball which is apparently reducing drag and producing bigger HRs. Players are also adapting to the analytics revolution in the sport which is resulting in guys tinkering with their swing approaches in order to generate better launch angles.

I wish that guys were still using roids but I didn't know about it, kind of like in the 90s. That McGwire/Sosa seasonbwas so damn much fun to watch back then.

On another note, I think that the long ball is becoming more highly valued by the sabremetrics folks that care less about average, and that's probably why we are seeing more bombs.

Well that and I have a theory about pitchers and their arms dying due to overuse at a young age, but that's probably for a different thread.

Nuke LaLoosh said:

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I wish that guys were still using roids but I didn't know about it, kind of like in the 90s. That McGwire/Sosa seasonbwas so damn much fun to watch back then.

On another note, I think that the long ball is becoming more highly valued by the sabremetrics folks that care less about average, and that's probably why we are seeing more bombs.

Well that and I have a theory about pitchers and their arms dying due to overuse at a young age, but that's probably for a different thread.

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This.

Strikeouts are no big deal anymore. Most hitters now talk about lifting the ball every at bat. I think it was Josh Donaldson that said the worst night at the plate would be 0-4 with 4 ground outs.

The fact that the Astros lead the league in homeruns AND fewest strikeouts is just mindboggling.

time will tell. I wouldn't rule anything out at this point.

in Judge's case...he is so big physically...at 6'7" he's going to have advantages from a physics standpoint so to speak. Like ol' Frank Howard back in the day who was also 6'7"....and ditto for Dave Kingman.

also a lot of the guys hitting HR's are young guys...still in their 20's. One of the hallmarks of the 'roid era were players still bashing past the age of 34 or 35...when there should have been a natural decline

I would also agree on the "one true outcome" phenomenon.

take Sano for instance...in 345 plate appearances this year...he has 21 home runs, 44 walks, and 120 K's.

that's 185 "true outcomes" ----- approximately 54% of his plate appearances

and from a baseball purist standpoint...we don't want the "one true outcome" players to overshadow the true 4-tool / 5-tool players in the game. The multi-tool players are the real talent

Hank Aaron hit over 200 Homers AFTER age 35, including 47 (the most Homers he ever had in a season) at age 37. Steroids?

Babe Ruth had around 150 Homers AFTER age 35, including 41 at age 37. Steroids?

can't use Aaron or Ruth as examples.

that's like the folks that want to use Nolan Ryan as a pitch count / innings pitched benchmark. "If Nolan could do it...then all pitchers nowadays should be able to do it."

all 3 are on the far, far end of the bell curve from a production / longevity standpoint

and not to take anything away from the Hammer...but the Braves' moving to Atlanta and into Fulton County Stadium (aka the launching pad) was definitely a boost for a player already in his 30's.

until baseball came to Colorado and Arizona...Atlanta at 1,000 feet above sea level...was the MLB park with the highest elevation

Willie Mays, Hank Greenberg, Johnny Mize etc. Lots of guys over the years mashed as much or more as older guys.

Certainly agree with you, W, in that more guys were mashing at older ages than usual. But certainly possible a few guys has the talent to hit a lot of home runs in their mid to later 30s.


Another note: One thing forgotten I think is Sosa wasn't actually all that old when he was hitting 60 home runs a year.

W said:

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and not to take anything away from the Hammer...but the Braves' moving to Atlanta and into Fulton County Stadium (aka the launching pad) was definitely a boost for a player already in his 30's.

until baseball came to Colorado and Arizona...Atlanta at 1,000 feet above sea level...was the MLB park with the highest elevation

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A few hundred feet isn't going to mean much...put that ballpark in a humid place like Atlanta and a few hundred feet means even less.

The temperatures in Atlanta may have been the most helpful, but even then...


Colorado may give a boost because of the large difference in altitude and the dry air. It can also get rather warm there, despite the altitude.

I just assume that a lot of the guys at the top of their game are taking things that may straddle the line as legal/illegal in baseball. That said, I really do think the balls were changed sometime last year which is producing so many more homeruns.

At any rate, who cares? I thoroughly enjoyed the McGwire/Bonds/Sosa days and I am thoroughly enjoying this year.

What's interesting is that although there is an increase in HRs you're not seeing the individual numbers explode like they were in the 90s/00s.

Judge (the league leader) is on pace for what 50-something HRs? That's not outrageous and it's thought of as a helluva season.

I remember back in the steroid days guys were banging out 50 HRs in a season like it was nothing and 50 was like a .285 BA. It wasn't anything special and didn't catch anyone's eye.

And the fact that we're seeing power increases from such a wide range of players makes me think it's not PEDs. If it was just a select few of mashers then I'd be concerned, but when Marwin Gonzales, Jake Marisnick, Cody Bellinger, or Charlie Blackmon are mashing HRs I'm not thinking PEDs.

See I think differently based on that originally era it's when the guys you are normally hitting home run suddenly start hitting in the thirties that you should be suspicious there's always going to be a couple people who just have it going that year it's when the overall increase happens that those last 10 to 20 ft getting Juiced out

Makes you wonder if the players found a new drug that the tests don't pick up.

It's funny to see the whole "ball is juiced" theory come back. We've been down this road before....

It is plausible that players are swinging for the fence more.

One other aspect is the swing diagnosis technology they have available today.

The ability to look at a swing and fine tune it to achieve a particular launch angle is a huge advantage today's players have.

It's very similar to golf. With the advancement of technology like Trackman players are able to get a bevy of information on swing dynamics and ball flight trajectories that enable them to fine tune swings to a level that prior to today was never achievable.

Ag_07 said:

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What's interesting is that although there is an increase in HRs you're not seeing the individual numbers explode like they were in the 90s/00s.

Judge (the league leader) is on pace for what 50-something HRs? That's not outrageous and it's thought of as a helluva season.

I remember back in the steroid days guys were banging out 50 HRs in a season like it was nothing and 50 was like a .285 BA. It wasn't anything special and didn't catch anyone's eye.

And the fact that we're seeing power increases from such a wide range of players makes me think it's not PEDs. If it was just a select few of mashers then I'd be concerned, but when Marwin Gonzales, Jake Marisnick, Cody Bellinger, or Charlie Blackmon are mashing HRs I'm not thinking PEDs.

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Just to reiterate this point -

HR/game totals:
1996: 1.09
1997: 1.02
1998: 1.04
1999: 1.14
2000: 1.17
2001: 1.12

'98 was the infamous McGwire year. HR totals did rise through those few steroid-fueled years, but not as much as they have recently -

HR/game totals:
2013: 0.96
2014: 0.86
2015: 1.01
2016: 1.16
2017: 1.26

Something is clearly going on because this is an even bigger jump than what we saw in the late-90s. As you said, HR totals for individual players are up across the board, very unlikely they all decided to juice at the same time.

I forget which Ranger player was on BaD radio recently, but he debunked this.whole 'working on launch angle" theory I have been seeing lately.
Essentially he said it's not like golf, because the ball doesn't sit on a tee. It's not a situation where you can replicate the same situation every swing.
Now I'm not saying the launch angle doesn't matter, because that is simple physics. Just thought it was an interesting interview/comment

Home runs jumped from 0.49 to 0.63 for three seasons to 0.84 from 1946 to 1950.

Some young guys you know or probably know...Ralph Kiner...Duke Snider...and Yogi Berra...came into the league and some other 30ish year olds you definitely know...Ted Williams...Stan Musial...Joe DiMaggio...and there were all sorts of guys around that went on to nice hitting careers.

....were all around and they all could hit home runs pretty well. It just lined up that way and it was, I think, just a great era of hitters more likely than they all found some World War II super drug.

There are similar jumps throughout history. Sometimes it just works out that way.


I'm sure whatever is going on with the ball has helped draw the numbers as high as they are around the league.

I find I hard to chalk it up to an era of great hitting when they're surpassing an era of great hitting with lots of juice.

Which seems more likely? The perfect storm of great hitters, juiced balls, improved launch angles, & focus on home runs or there are performance enhancers in the mix too.

Seems to me we're just seeing a league wide movement towards a lot of pretty good home run seasons*** without other achievements to note---except smashing strikeout records. To me, that suggests it quite possible its coming from a change in hitting philosophy and technological change is causing fly balls to become home runs.

Back in the verified steroid era, they hit more doubles, they hit more triples, they struck out much less, they had much better averages, etc.


***In other words, and someone can do more crunching numbers and prove me wrong or I can try when I have more time, but seems like we're having more pretty good seasons but less of a dropoff to the "rest" of the league and less of a clumping of a group of mega-mashers like was seen in the steroid era.

Does that make sense?

Ball is juiced in lieu of players but average player size has increased in 20 years. 6'2" and 220 lbs is normal.

Cory Seager - 6'2", 220
Cody Bellinger - 6'4", 210

Dustin Pedroia is an outlier.

That stated, I would not be surprised if PED use is back on the table.

I think MLB also made changes to bats to cut down on the number of times they shattered and nearly impaled players. That might have a a bit to do something with the home run rate as well.

PatAg said:

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I forget which Ranger player was on BaD radio recently, but he debunked this.whole 'working on launch angle" theory I have been seeing lately.
Essentially he said it's not like golf, because the ball doesn't sit on a tee. It's not a situation where you can replicate the same situation every swing.
Now I'm not saying the launch angle doesn't matter, because that is simple physics. Just thought it was an interesting interview/comment

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Yep. It was Joey Gallo. He says they joke about it because its nonsense

That makes a lot of sense.