Conversation on BaD Radio today got me thinking about who the pitchers are that I would absolutely take over Yu Darvish for the rest of this season. Basically the premise was that Yu is great, but takes some heat locally for not being better, and while he's really really good it's ok to think he could be better/reach the highest tier.

For purposes of this exercise it's just who would you take over Yu for this year...not for the next 3 or 5, etc.

For me it's:

Kershaw
Sale
Scherzer
Mad Bum
Thor
Kluber


Any disagreements?

Agree with your list and would probably add King Felix

I've heard this guy might be better than Yu...

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/164174962/shohei-ohtani-is-next-baseball-star-from-japan/

Lester. Dominant lefty who always wins big games.

Lester is a good one...hard to argue based on results.

Keuchel has been great so far but I'll take Yu for this year. I just think his stuff is better and I'm a fan of Keuchel.

If that's bias then guilty as charged.

Cool. Let's see at the end of the year. I'll be tracking the results of these guys month to month in this thread.

Oh and I'd take Lance over Dallas right now myself. As much upside as anyone outside of the top 15-20 SPs IMO.

corleoneAg99 said:

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Oh and I'd take Lance over Dallas right now myself. As much upside as anyone outside of the top 15-20 SPs IMO.

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I love Lance but I just don't think the human arm was made to do what he does...I sure hope I'm wrong.

Yu has great stuff, but I feel like he has never really learned to pitch. He walks way to many guys. It seems like every year starts with, "Is this the year Yu becomes a true ace?" He's very good, but don't think he's going to get any better. He's 30 now, so he's not exactly young any more. He's going to have an ERA around 3, a bunch of Ks, and 12 wins.

corleoneAg99 said:

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Oh and I'd take Lance over Dallas right now myself. As much upside as anyone outside of the top 15-20 SPs IMO.

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This is a weird statement as it seems to imply that Dallas isn't in the top 15-20 SPs.

AustinAg2K said:

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corleoneAg99 said:

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Oh and I'd take Lance over Dallas right now myself. As much upside as anyone outside of the top 15-20 SPs IMO.

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This is a weird statement as it seems to imply that Dallas isn't in the top 15-20 SPs.

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Nope...meant Lance is currently not a top 15-20 guy but has as much upside as anyone not in that group.

Put another way, I think he's easily a top 10 pitcher if his year goes remotely well. Big fan.

He's been great!

friscodick said:

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Dallas (3-0) has a 0.96 ERA and 0.79 WHIP and won the Cy Young year before last...sure he played hurt last year and it affected him but Yu has injury concerns too. If Keuchel isn't on the list you're biased.

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As I was saying....

corleoneAg99 said:

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He's been great!

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Keuchel, McCullers

Some stats on Keuchel so far this season:

- Currently allowing a .188 BABIP. Lowest of his career including minors in a small sample I know but yeah, that's not going to stay that low.

- GB% of 66%...highest he's shown in MLB. in 2015 he was at 62% for reference.

- LOB % of 100%. 100%! Previous MLB high of 80% in 2015.

- K/9 of 6.6...lowest of his career in MLB. In 2015 he was 8.4; last year he was 7.7.

- FIP of 370; last year he was 387 and 2015 he was 291.

- AVG allowed of 173; in 2015 it was 216 and last year it was 258.


I could go on but here's the point...Keuchel is a good pitcher and he's pitching great right now. While K/9 should normalize up a bit his other basic stat lines are not sustainable at current pace. The point of this thread is who you would take over the entire season and not who is the best pitcher today through all the games played so far.

Like Darvish and Keuchel(that's allowed, right?)...I'd just prefer Yu is forced to pick. Lets see how it pans out.

I'll be posting some month end figures for all the pitchers mentioned here to see how the perceived best pitchers in the league are fairing in 2017.

Arrieta (contract year) would also be on my list. Possibly Verlander but he's had a rough go of it to start. MadBum is out at least 8 weeks with the risk of his shoulder AC Joint being bad from his accident so he doesn't make a ton of sense to me.

gigem1223 said:

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Man, some of you Astros fans are the biggest homers. I get Keuchel, but McCullers? Darvish has better numbers across the board than McCullers. Then to say McCullers has better "stuff" than one of the greatest strikeout pitchers ever? Yu touches 98 and then will drop 65 the very next pitch. I mean the dude has like 6 different pitches. You do realize Darvish is #1 all time when it comes to so/ 9 IP? There's no debate Yu has the best "stuff" in baseball next to Kershaw, he just has issues controlling it from time to time.

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I never said I would take Lance over Yu and I probably shouldn't have used him as an example of who has better stuff. It's a much better comparison to say Lance has better stuff than Dallas.

As an Astros fan I've seen first hand (and in person) how incredible Yu's "stuff" is.

OK I'm starting to get creeped out on the over use of stuff...

If we're talking just a single season, then worse "stuff" or not, you take Keuchel in a heartbeat over Yu.

Keuchel has proven to be a guy that is going to give you around 7 innings and 2/3 ER.

While Yu has better "stuff", he's giving you an inning less each time out.

free_mhayden said:

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If we're talking just a single season, then worse "stuff" or not, you take Keuchel in a heartbeat over Yu.

Keuchel has proven to be a guy that is going to give you around 7 innings and 2/3 ER.

While Yu has better "stuff", he's giving you an inning less each time out.

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Interesting. So if I asked you in late March to pick Yu or Dallas you're taking Dallas for all of 2017?

gigem1223 said:

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Man, some of you Astros fans are the biggest homers. I get Keuchel, but McCullers? Darvish has better numbers across the board than McCullers. Then to say McCullers has better "stuff" than one of the greatest strikeout pitchers ever? Yu touches 98 and then will drop 65 the very next pitch. I mean the dude has like 6 different pitches. You do realize Darvish is #1 all time when it comes to so/ 9 IP? There's no debate Yu has the best "stuff" in baseball next to Kershaw, he just has issues controlling it from time to time.

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A few quotes from some articles on Lance.

Quote:

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There's a reason McCullers throws curveballs all the time; it's really good. Last year, hitters had the second-highest swing rate against his curve of any pitcher in baseball, and even despite opponents offering at it half the time, he still recorded the seventh-highest whiff rate on those swings. He can throw it in the zone for called strikes or out of the zone for swinging strikes, and the velocity and movement make it a difficult pitch for opponents to handle.

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Quote:

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McCullers tends to get good results, mostly because he throws a good curveball. His curveball bears a strong resemblance to that thrown by Craig Kimbrel, the difference being that McCullers is a starting pitcher, which is nuts.

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This season, among starters, McCullers has thrown baseball's hardest average curveball, by 2.0 miles per hour. In curveball rate, he ranks first. He ranks first by more than seven percentage points. McCullers has thrown a curveball 49% of the time, and out of his five starts, his lowest rate is 42%. You think Rich Hill curveballs a lot? You think Drew Pomeranz curveballs a lot? They most certainly do, sure, but not like McCullers. No starter throws curves as often as he does, and no starter throws curves as hard as he does.
For what it's worth, we have pitch-type information stretching back to 2002. The highest curveball rates on record for starters:
[ol]

Lance McCullers, 2016, 48.5%

John Stephens, 2002, 46.0%

Phil Irwin, 2013, 41.9%

Pat Mahomes, 2003, 41.7%

Rich Hill, 2015, 41.5%

[/ol]McCullers also ranks first in velocity

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As for Darvish's 98, his avg fastball 92.9 for his career. McCuller's is 94.1. My point is that Lance can bring it as well as almost anyone. However, he does not change speeds like Yu. Credit him for that.

Lance has a higher K% & K/9 this year, while Yu has a better career one. Overall I'd say pretty comparable. Lance is still developing into an ace. Everyone sees his stuff and gets overly excited (me, as well), but he hasn't quite put it all together yet. It's not being a homer. His stuff really is that good.

gigem1223 said:

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No one is saying he doesn't have great stuff but to put him above Yu at this point is being a homer.

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Not really. Maybe right at this very minute, Yu has better stuff, but we are talking barely, and I'm not sure if he does or not. Lance's career K/9 is about .8 less than Yu and he's 23. His curveball is the best curve in the league.

corleoneAg99 said:

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free_mhayden said:

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If we're talking just a single season, then worse "stuff" or not, you take Keuchel in a heartbeat over Yu.

Keuchel has proven to be a guy that is going to give you around 7 innings and 2/3 ER.

While Yu has better "stuff", he's giving you an inning less each time out.

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Interesting. So if I asked you in late March to pick Yu or Dallas you're taking Dallas for all of 2017?

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Probably not (though Yu's durability would certain cause me concern). But on April 26, 2017 I'd take Keuchel the rest of 2017 over Yu.

Ignoring this year, over the last 3 years Keuchel has been a 200IP/3.21 ERA pitcher.

Even in Yu's two "healthy" seasons he only gave you a 3.34 ERA.


Darvish has the higher ceiling, but we're in his 5th year and he's been near that ceiling just one year (2013).