Gray, in Oakland's eyes, is also an injury plagued pitcher who has declined in value in the past two years.

They're selling low and may want to cash in what they can while they can.

Ag_07 said:

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I what parallel universe are yall in that you think Mike Fiers is a better option that Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana?

Just simply looking at ERA doesn't tell the whole story.

FIP
Fiers - 5.66
Gray - 3.61

BABIP
Fiers - .267
Gray - .309

WAR
Fiers - -0.2
Gray - 1.2

GB%
Fiers - 50.4
Gray - 54.9

HR/FB%
Fiers - 23.7
Gray - 16.3

K/9
Fiers - 7.73
Gray - 9.05

BB/9
Fiers - 3.23
Gray 3.06

HR/9
Fiers - 2.08
Gray - 0.97

And the point of this is not to say Gray is the best option and he should be the guy we go get, but I'm just saying I would take him over Mike Fiers any day of the week.

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I would be curious to see what these stats look like over the last month and a half since Fiers said he adjusted his arm angle and has shown significant improvements.

Tucker is the one player I wouldn't trade if I was the Astros at this point, it's not often you see the kind of rapid ascent through the system from a high school draftee. His rise is probably so rapid that the Astros will probably need to reassess plans in the OF within the next couple years. He was a year older than Correa was when he was drafted, and so is more behind schedule than him based on age, but in terms of years of professional baseball, he is moving up faster and crushing it like Correa did. I just saw that he already has 6 bombs in 100 AB's at AA.

irish pete ag06 said:

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Let's relive the Kazmir trade that Luhnow made in 2015. I'm not worried about how these prospects have panned out, let's look back on their value when they were traded.

Scott Kazmir for Jacob Nottingham and Daniel Mengden

• We know how Kazmir turned out, but at the time he was considered a huge get. A solid #2 pitcher behind Keuchel.
• Daniel Mengden - at the time he was considered a C+ prospect, but he was killing it that season with a miniscule ERA.
• Jacob Nottingham - at the time, he wasn't highly ranked, but like Mengden he was having a killer year.

In summary, it seems like Beane wanted minor leaguers who were killing it in the stat column and wasn't terribly concerned with prospect ranking, so to speak.

So how about this package for Sonny Gray:

• Rogelio Armenteros - guy is annihilating AA ball but is a C+ prospect
• Jason Martin - another not top 10 prospect that is killing it this year.

Gray does have control through 2019 though, so this will warrant some more.

So let's add some folks.

• Teoscar Hernandez, gives them another outfielder which apparently their farm is devoid of.
• JD Davis, another throw in of a guy that is killing AA ball so Beane gets his stat line guy he likes

How about that? Based on Beane's track record, if we also send some cash, I could see him taking that.

How about he throws in their LOOGY Sean Dolittle also. Dude's annihilating left handed hitters this year.

So, let's summarize:

Oakland sends

• Sonny Gray - under control through 2019
• Sean Dolittle - under control through 2018

Houston sends

• Rogelio Armenteros
• Jason Martin
• Teoscar Hernandez
• JD Davis

That package may need more, but I could see him subbing AJ Reed in for JD Davis... or throwing another lottery ticket arm in there.

---

This is a pipe dream. It will take more premium prospects to land Gray. The Dodgers and Yankees are going to drive the price of poker up for everybody.

Gray is also going to be one of the bigger names on the market without any true aces available. In 2015 Kazmir was clearly in a tier behind Cueto, Hamels, and Price.

coastalAg said:

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irish pete ag06 said:

---

Let's relive the Kazmir trade that Luhnow made in 2015. I'm not worried about how these prospects have panned out, let's look back on their value when they were traded.

Scott Kazmir for Jacob Nottingham and Daniel Mengden

• We know how Kazmir turned out, but at the time he was considered a huge get. A solid #2 pitcher behind Keuchel.
• Daniel Mengden - at the time he was considered a C+ prospect, but he was killing it that season with a miniscule ERA.
• Jacob Nottingham - at the time, he wasn't highly ranked, but like Mengden he was having a killer year.

In summary, it seems like Beane wanted minor leaguers who were killing it in the stat column and wasn't terribly concerned with prospect ranking, so to speak.

So how about this package for Sonny Gray:

• Rogelio Armenteros - guy is annihilating AA ball but is a C+ prospect
• Jason Martin - another not top 10 prospect that is killing it this year.

Gray does have control through 2019 though, so this will warrant some more.

So let's add some folks.

• Teoscar Hernandez, gives them another outfielder which apparently their farm is devoid of.
• JD Davis, another throw in of a guy that is killing AA ball so Beane gets his stat line guy he likes

How about that? Based on Beane's track record, if we also send some cash, I could see him taking that.

How about he throws in their LOOGY Sean Dolittle also. Dude's annihilating left handed hitters this year.

So, let's summarize:

Oakland sends

• Sonny Gray - under control through 2019
• Sean Dolittle - under control through 2018

Houston sends

• Rogelio Armenteros
• Jason Martin
• Teoscar Hernandez
• JD Davis

That package may need more, but I could see him subbing AJ Reed in for JD Davis... or throwing another lottery ticket arm in there.

---

This is a pipe dream. It will take more premium prospects to land Gray. The Dodgers and Yankees are going to drive the price of poker up for everybody.

Gray is also going to be one of the bigger names on the market without any true aces available. In 2015 Kazmir was clearly in a tier behind Cueto, Hamels, and Price.

---

I agree it will likely take more.. and if it does. I'm out. Go get Trevor Cahill for a couple of C+ prospects.

Wait, wasn't Nottingham our highest rated and only good catching prospect in our system at that time??

He was also a top 10 catching prospect in all of the minors in 2015 if you got to the 2015 archive of MILB prospect rankings.

E said:

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Wait, wasn't Nottingham our highest rated and only good catching prospect in our system at that time??

He was also a top 10 catching prospect in all of the minors in 2015 if you got to the 2015 archive of MILB prospect rankings.

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He wasn't a top 100 prospect is the main thing I was getting at, so he was a B prospect at best... who happened to be having a career year, and also may not stick at catcher.

I'm saying Luhnow sold really high on he and Mengden.

Doesn't Beane also typically go for quantity over quality.

I think this bodes well for us since we have quite a few guys in our top 30 that won't be a part of the ML team anytime in the near future.

Ag_07 said:

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Doesn't Beane also typically go for quantity over quality.

I think this bodes well for us since we have quite a few guys in our top 30 that won't be a part of the ML team anytime in the near future.

---

A lot of times yes which is why I pulled up our AAA roster the other night and forgot how many MLB fringe type players we have. I think we have enough decent quanity to entice and pull off that trade for guys that would be on a lot of MLB rosters but will never make it to Houston bc of the log jam of young talent.

Preston Tucker, Moran, Tyler white, reed, Hernandez, Tony kemp etc.

Now that I think about Tony kemp is exactly that "type" of player beane looks for in trades...somebody that works counts, slaps the ball around and just gets on base. I bet he's a piece of the trade if gray is dealt

Ag_07 said:

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Doesn't Beane also typically go for quantity over quality.

I think this bodes well for us since we have quite a few guys in our top 30 that won't be a part of the ML team anytime in the near future.

---

Yes he does. Typically.

The OF depth we have is insane. With Springer and Reddick here for a while and Fisher and Tucker right behind them we have a ton of flexibility with OFers in our system.

Beane also pulled two top 100 pitching prospects and major league ready Jharel Cotton from the Dodgers last year for Reddick and Rich Hill.

He has been both a seller and a buyer on on the end of some very large deals over the years. Lets stop pretending that we can package a bunch of AAAA guys for anything meaningful in return.

Yeah I don't think we can do that, but I think we can add 1 of the big 3 paired with some solid prospects that are blocked by the likes of Correa, Altuve, Bregman, and Springer.

That's why I've said that with George and Reddick here for a few more years that we can afford to lose one of Fisher or Tucker.

coastalAg said:

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Beane also pulled two top 100 pitching prospects and major league ready Jharel Cotton from the Dodgers last year for Reddick and Rich Hill.

He has been both a seller and a buyer on on the end of some very large deals over the years. Lets stop pretending that we can package a bunch of AAAA guys for anything meaningful in return.

---

Ok, so throw David Paulino in that deal and take 1 of the lower tiered guys out. I MAY do that.

If the throws in Dolittle sure.

But Reddick and Rich Hill is a completely different animal than Gray.

Have we discussed this: Go to 2:48 mark if you want to hear the discussion/reasoning

This guy is a little looney

Maybe you can make it work with Paulino in there. I would certainly love that trade.

Seems like the market is going to be more expensive than that though. I would personally be willing to give up Martes as the headliner, but I may value Gray differently than you do.

If we cant get a guy that can be slid in the middle of the playoff rotation then I dont really see the point of trading for a starter. We have enough arms to get us to the playoffs as the 1 seed in the AL.

I only brought up Hill/Reddick as a counter to the notion that Beane is a quantity over quality guy. It has been the case sometimes, but not always.

CFTXAG10 said:

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Have we discussed this: Go to 2:48 mark if you want to hear the discussion/reasoning

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Oh Lord

coastalAg said:

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Maybe you can make it work with Paulino in there. I would certainly love that trade.

Seems like the market is going to be more expensive than that though. I would personally be willing to give up Martes as the headliner, but I may value Gray differently than you do.

If we cant get a guy that can be slid in the middle of the playoff rotation then I dont really see the point of trading for a starter. We have enough arms to get us to the playoffs as the 1 seed in the AL.

I only brought up Hill/Reddick as a counter to the notion that Beane is a quantity over quality guy. It has been the case sometimes, but not always.

---

I kind of wonder just how expensive the market will be. There is no true prize out there. There are a lot of guys like Gray.

Sonny Gray, under achieving
Jacob DeGrom, probably the best one on the market actually
Gerrit Cole, is he really an ace? No.
Jose Quintana, bad under achieving
Jeff Samardzija, bad contract
Justin Verlander, old and contract
Trevor Cahill, injured and no track record
Clayton Richard, no track record
Jason Vargas, not a great track record
Jaime Garcia, back end guy

CFTXAG10 said:

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Have we discussed this: Go to 2:48 mark if you want to hear the discussion/reasoning

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How long would we have Machado before he becomes a free agent and possibly leaves??

Ivan Nova still flying under the radar.

Still think he'd be an awesome get

***Ah I see that looks like the big name guys since you also left off Happ***

Arbitration eligible in 2018, free agent in 2019. Machado's a good player but definitely isn't someone we need

I'd definitely be on bored with Nova. Controlled through 2019, not awfully expensive, and has had great control with the Pirates (0.8 BB/9).

Cubs and Red Sox both also interested in Gray supposedly.

Dave Dombrowski is going to do his best to bleed the Red Sox system dry.

mathguy86 said:

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I'm not doing anything or making any deal that messes with the chemistry on this team. To me everyday players getting traded out or incoming field players are off the table. Pitchers (relief guys in particular) are one thing. But position players are a no go. And even pitchers would have to be the right guy from a clubhouse perspective.

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Exactly. Hopefully Lunhow learned his lesson on the Gomez trade. We would've finished with a better record in 2015 and 2016 had we never aquired Gomez. Sometimes no trade is better than a forced trade...

CFTXAG10 said:

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Have we discussed this: Go to 2:48 mark if you want to hear the discussion/reasoning

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Don't know who this guy is but he seems like a moron. Hell, I can sit around and throw out random trade opportunities and come up valid reasons. I'm not against trading Bregman, but it better be for quality pitching. 100% our only concern that needs to be addressed is pitching. Nothing else is broke so don't **** with it.

coastalAg said:

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Cubs and Red Sox both also interested in Gray supposedly.

Dave Dombrowski is going to do his best to bleed the Red Sox system dry.

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The Red Sox will just do what the Yankees did last yr and replenish their farm with a trade deadline firesale in a few years. That's the luxury of being a top 5 payroll team...

Does either Chicago or Boston have a farm system left after last season and offseason trades

Looking at Boston's starters here is what I saw:
AL Only
#1 WAR
#1 IP
#5 ERA
#2 FIP
#4 xFIP

Do they really need another starter?

But then I saw us.
#3 WAR
#5 IP
#1 ERA
#3 FIP
#1 xFIP

Our starters have been pretty elite and yet it is damn near unanimous that we want to add another starting arm.

The only other staff that compares are Cleveland & NYY.
Cleveland
#2 WAR
#8 IP
#9 ERA
#1 FIP
#2 xFIP

NYY
#4 WAR
#7 IP
#4 ERA
#4 FIP
#3 xFIP