I would be willing to make a move for some of the guys being thrown around on here, but these aren't the names being regularly mentioned elsewhere. Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana seem to be the most likely "controllable" guys that we could get.

I understand that we would be in trouble if McCullers or Keuchel weren't available come postseason time, but neither of these dudes would make me feel any better about it.

I'm all for making a move for a difference maker, but if we aren't getting a front end of the rotation guy (who is performing this year) we are throwing prospects away. I would be more inclined to hold them until next year in hopes more difference making talent is available. We could still win it all with a healthy Keuchel and McCullers plus Morton or Peacock.

The number of teams in contention this year is making it tough.

I just do not think Cole, Quintana, or Gray are big enough upgrades over Fiers/McHugh/Morton to warrant giving up top prospects. None of those 3 are having a great year yet they will still command a high price. I think we definitely need another good arm or two in the bullpen, though. If you've got a healthy Keuchel and McCullers, you can make do with something like Fiers on a short leash followed by Devo and Peacock out of the bullpen for game 3.

BowSowy said:

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I just do not think Cole, Quintana, or Gray are big enough upgrades over Fiers/McHugh/Morton to warrant giving up top prospects. None of those 3 are having a great year yet they will still command a high price. I think we definitely need another good arm or two in the bullpen, though. If you've got a healthy Keuchel and McCullers, you can make do with something like Fiers on a short leash followed by Devo and Peacock out of the bullpen for game 3.

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This.

I'm all for parting with Reed, White, Kemp, Moran, Paulino.

But nothing on the market commands giving up a top 5 farm piece.

BowSowy said:

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If you've got a healthy Keuchel and McCullers, you can make do with something like Fiers on a short leash followed by Devo and Peacock out of the bullpen for game 3.

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This will not win you many playoff games much less a playoff series.

I'll give you depending on the Fiers that goes 6/7 is alright (even though I think that's a stretch) but to say that we'd be OK with the Fiers who only goes 3/4 is just nuts.

Frok said:

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Quote:

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Sonny Gray and Jose Quintana seem to be the most likely "controllable" guys that we could get.

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No thanks. Fiers has a better ERA than both of these guys.

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They both have around the same ERA as Dallas last year. Clearly, there is no way to return to what they have previously achieved and Friers will continue his unbelievable run of 1.42 ERA in June and not the ~4.95 he was in Mar-May.

I'm not saying Fiers is good. I'm saying I don't want Gray because he's not even better than Fiers at this point. (In regards to ERA)

I wouldn't trade away young cheap talent for a guy that MIGHT come back to form.

To me ERA is one of the more pointless stats for pitchers.

It's almost as bad as using W/L record to justify a pitchers performance.

I gave you my metric in response to that. My analysis is based off ERA, not the fangraph flyball analysis stuff.

Frok said:

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I gave you my metric in response to that. My analysis is based off ERA, not the fangraph flyball analysis stuff.

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So...... you're sticking your head in the sand?

I have missed a lot of the discussion the past few days, but I am in on Gray if he can be had for Martes and another 2nd tier prospect.

A playoff rotation of Keuchel, McCullers, Gray, and Morton would make me feel good.

titanmaster_race said:

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Frok said:

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I'm not saying Fiers is good. I'm saying I don't want Gray because he's not even better than Fiers at this point. (In regards to ERA)

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Did you just conveniently ignore all of stats in the previous post?

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And let's not forget gray was on the DL the first month and half of season and had virtually no spring training. His stats are inflated by a few big clunker starts.

If you look game by game he has had multiple 7-8 inning 1-2 run 10 strikeout type starts. The guy is a solid #3 on a bad team.

Beane knows he can't command a ton for him especially in division and so does lunhow. Beane loves deals where someone kicks in cash. I agree with everyone that the price tag for an ace this year might be too steep which is why somebody like cole or gray makes a lot of sense

And I'd take my chances that Gray gets back into form over Fiers maintaining his.

Ag_07 said:

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And I'd take my chances that Gray gets back into form over Fiers maintaining his.

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I think just about everyone would. Now is the price right for Gray is the only question remaining?

I think it's pretty obvious, like or not, the Astros will be making a deal by the deadline. Whether that's for a Starter or BP, we shall see.

The MLB just started tracking foot speed this season. Interesting list for the Astros. McCann is slower than Beltran.

Link

Also, if I'm reading it right, McCann is the only second to Pujols for slowest player in the league.

Not sure. I think he could be had for less some of the other names.

If I were Lunhow I'd try and get a Gray/Madson package.

This way you could include more, address both needs, and it's a bit easier to swallow if one doesn't turn out.

I'd start by offering Fisher/Paulino/Davis/Perez

Ag_07 said:

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aggie1906 said:

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This will be my youngest daughter's first game. She just turned one last May.

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Why the late start?

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I've beat myself up over it for not taking her last year. At least she didn't miss much. She has already been to Olsen a few times.

aggie1906 said:

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I'll be in 231 tonight with the fam. This will be my youngest daughter's first game. She just turned one last May.

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I hope for your sake she can't walk. Or else you won't see much of the game.

Fiers over just the last month has been better than Gray. As far as which is likely to perform well, your chances of one of them going on to continue to pitch like a good #3 for you is better if both are on your roster, plus the added bonus that if both do well thats a great #4 as well.

I cringe when people ignore the ERA stat. In the playoffs, I would take a guy that gives up 2 runs but lots of hard hit balls versus a guy who gives up 5 runs on a bunch of soft hit balls.

That's like saying in football you may have a great W-L record, but that doesn't mean your any good. You are what your record says you are. You are what your ERA says you are.

CSWendt said:

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I cringe when people ignore the ERA stat. In the playoffs, I would take a guy that gives up 2 runs but lots of hard hit balls versus a guy who gives up 5 runs on a bunch of soft hit balls.

That's like saying in football you may have a great W-L record, but that doesn't mean your any good. You are what your record says you are. You are what your ERA says you are.

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A guy who gets hit hard all year long won't have a better ERA than a guy who gives up a bunch on f soft contact unless there is a major difference in Ks & BB.

Saw this and thought Blevins would be a nice target.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/06/taking-inventory-new-york-mets.html

Let's relive the Kazmir trade that Luhnow made in 2015. I'm not worried about how these prospects have panned out, let's look back on their value when they were traded.

Scott Kazmir for Jacob Nottingham and Daniel Mengden

• We know how Kazmir turned out, but at the time he was considered a huge get. A solid #2 pitcher behind Keuchel.
• Daniel Mengden - at the time he was considered a C+ prospect, but he was killing it that season with a miniscule ERA.
• Jacob Nottingham - at the time, he wasn't highly ranked, but like Mengden he was having a killer year.

In summary, it seems like Beane wanted minor leaguers who were killing it in the stat column and wasn't terribly concerned with prospect ranking, so to speak.

So how about this package for Sonny Gray:

• Rogelio Armenteros - guy is annihilating AA ball but is a C+ prospect
• Jason Martin - another not top 10 prospect that is killing it this year.

Gray does have control through 2019 though, so this will warrant some more.

So let's add some folks.

• Teoscar Hernandez, gives them another outfielder which apparently their farm is devoid of.
• JD Davis, another throw in of a guy that is killing AA ball so Beane gets his stat line guy he likes

How about that? Based on Beane's track record, if we also send some cash, I could see him taking that.

How about he throws in their LOOGY Sean Dolittle also. Dude's annihilating left handed hitters this year.

So, let's summarize:

Oakland sends

• Sonny Gray - under control through 2019
• Sean Dolittle - under control through 2018

Houston sends

• Rogelio Armenteros
• Jason Martin
• Teoscar Hernandez
• JD Davis

That package may need more, but I could see him subbing AJ Reed in for JD Davis... or throwing another lottery ticket arm in there.

All Star balloting ends soon, get your votes in!!!!

The issue I have with ERA is that it counts runs the pitcher doesn't actually give up. It's a true representation.

For example if a guy gives up 2 singles, gets pulled, and the reliever comes in and gives up a bomb those 2 baserunners go to the starter.

He only gave up 2 singles but gets tacked for the 2 runs. Starters ERAs get inflated while RPs can get away with giving up runs but it not affect their ERA.

Hoyt has been a master of giving up everyone else's runs then getting his guys out.