**Official Texas Rangers 2017 Season Thread** Staff Warning on OP

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TXAggie2011
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11:14p, 8/13/17
AG
Making it as simple as "Gallo is a three outcome hitter" ignores meaningful pieces of the equation.

If you look at overall numbers, there was a 14% chance Gallo or Napoli would hit at least one single in their plate appearances. There was a 20% chance at least one of their plate appearances would end with a double or single.

A walk is fine, you add the odds Odor has a single or double. Odor has a 12% of PA's chance to hit a single and a 3% chance of PAs to hit a double. (There is a 22% chance Gallo or Napoli walk.)

Ultimately, there was a 25% chance they saw a single or double out of Gallo, Napoli, or Odor (including situations where Odor doesn't get to the plate) where you know you're going to get at least you're tying run in. (The odds they would produce one run were of course much higher---they could hit a 3B, HR, plus the marginal stuff like an error, two walks or heck, a Gallo walk plus Napoli sac fly or the off chance Gallo pulls off a sac fly, etc.)

I don't know how the math would ultimately work out but you can't ignore 25%+ of outcomes in this calculation.
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TXAggie2011
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11:21p, 8/13/17
AG
It's going to be damn near a toss up and of course, Gallo ends up a split second and a couple of feet from getting his base hit off a Giles slider.
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mhayden
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11:26p, 8/13/17
No one is ignoring anything - the numbers very clearly show the likelihood of Gomez getting a hit/ walk compared to Gallo getting a base hit or a sac-fly.
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94chem
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6:24a, 8/14/17
What do the scenarios say about Drew Robinson vs a 9 year old in knowing to freeze on a line drive?
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mhayden
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9:16a, 8/14/17
Based on year-long statistics, Joey Gallo has achieved a non-HR hit to the outfield 33 times in 381 plate appearances. He's actually hit a non-HR ball to the outfield (non-hit) 56 times in 381 plate appearances.

So even if we want to assume that every single Gallo hit to the outfield would have been deep enough to score a runner from 3rd base as as sacrifice, he would only be successful in generating a run 23.3% of the time (33hit + 56outfield / 381 plate appearances). Carlos Gomez on the other hand gets on base 33.9% of the time (via hit or walk or otherwise).

So you've got a 33.9% chance that Gomez is either going to knock a runner in via hit or move the runners over via walk.

Instead you give up an out so that Joey Gallo has a 23.3% chance of generating a run (in a very liberal scenario where every single ball to the outfield is assumed deep enough to tag).


That's a general statistical breakdown. The common sense breakdown is that it doesn't make much sense for a guy that hits decently for average to give up an out so that a guy who hits poorly for average to get an at-bat.
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94chem
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10:28a, 8/14/17
One thing not mentioned is how deep the IF was playing with Gallo up. It looked like they were conceding the run, but Gallo hits the ball so hard, they were probably planning on coming home with a grounder to medium depth 2B. Although it was a deep alignment for a normal drawn-in IF, it was much shallower than normal for Gallo. IOW, his average went up a lot, and Houston dodged a bullet by not giving the IBB.
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TheAngelFlight
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In reply to mhayden • 10:57a, 8/14/17
free_mhayden said:
No one is ignoring anything - the numbers very clearly show the likelihood of Gomez getting a hit/ walk compared to Gallo getting a base hit or a sac-fly.


Well, just quickly, you are ignoring there are three outs in an inning.

Unless Joey Gallo hit into a double play (something he had done once in his MLB career), there would be at least one more at bat in the inning no matter what he did.
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TheAngelFlight
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11:09a, 8/14/17
And of course with no force outs the chances of the double play move even closer to 0.
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TXAggie2011
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11:29a, 8/14/17
AG
Quote:
So you've got a 33.9% chance that Gomez is either going to knock a runner in via hit or move the runners over via walk.

Instead you give up an out so that Joey Gallo has a 23.3% chance of generating a run (in a very liberal scenario where every single ball to the outfield is assumed deep enough to tag).


Not every Gomez hit---a guy who generally pulls to the left field---is going to score a run. That's a very liberal scenario.
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mhayden
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 11:59a, 8/14/17
And you know what happens if Gomez gets a hit and it doesn't score a run?

Gallo is up with the bases loaded and nobody out instead of 2nd and 3rd with 1 out.

Which situation do you think is better?
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TXAggie2011
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12:05p, 8/14/17
AG
Obviously Gomez getting a hit or a walk would have been a more than fine outcome that is more desirable than a Gomez out. It's of course the more likely unproductive out scenario that brings up the question what to do on his at bat given the score and inning.
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mhayden
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12:08p, 8/14/17
Therefore what Gomez does with his hit really isn't relevant -- if his chances of getting ANY kind of hit are greater than Gallo's chances of getting a hit or sac-fly, then it's smarter to let Gomez hit.
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TXAggie2011
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12:10p, 8/14/17
AG
No, that's the wrong comparison, if not simply as the poster above states that baseball indeed has 3 outs in an inning.
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mhayden
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12:15p, 8/14/17
These are the only scenarios where sacrificing runners over to 2nd and 3rd with 1 out make statistical sense:

* Gallo hits a single
* Gallo hits a sac-fly
* Gomez grounds into a double play


Unless the chances of one of the the above three things happening are greater than Gomez getting a hit or walking (~34% based on season OBP) then it doesn't make sense to give up Gomez out for Gallo to hit with runners 1 base closer.
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TXAggie2011
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12:35p, 8/14/17
AG
Or Napoli hits a single. Or Napoli or Gallo walk and Odor hits a single. Or Gallo walks and Napoli gets a sac fly. Or a ground ball scores a run either from Gallo or after a Gallo walk. Etc. (Or you get an error or a balk.)

And then you have the slew of similar scenarios where someone hits a double and you consider the odds Adrian Beltre scores from 2nd vs 1st.

And plus, 15% of Gonez's hits haven't left the infield---you don't have confidence that unless he lays down a great bunt, that's a possible outcome with forces at 2nd and 3rd.
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mhayden
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 1:04p, 8/14/17
Quote:
Or Napoli hits a single. Or Napoli or Gallo walk and Odor hits a single. Or Gallo walks and Napoli gets a sac fly. Or a ground ball scores a run either from Gallo or after a Gallo walk. Etc. (Or you get an error or a balk.)


Except almost every one of those scenarios could also play out if Gomez is allowed to hit.


Carlos Gomez is either going to get a hit/walk (to advance the runners without sacrifcing an out) or get a hit to tie the game up (also without sacrificing an out) around 34% of the time.

The chances of Joey Gallo hitting a run-scoring single or a sac-fly is around a 20% chance.

The chances of Mike Napoli hitting a single (not an XBH that would tie the game anyways) is less than 10%.


Giving up an out with Carlos Gomez to advance the runners so that low average guys like Joey Gallo and Mike Napoli can score a runner from 3rd (as opposed to a runner from 2nd) on a single is simply bad statistical baseball. You can can play the "what if" game with each batter after Gomez and nearly each and every one will come back with it being a high probability move to allow Gomez to hit with RISP rather than bunting runners over for low average hitters.
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DannyDuberstein
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1:19p, 8/14/17
AG
You also have to weigh in the fact that not all attempts to sacrifice bunt are successful. Can't really go straight to weighing the %'s of Gallo with the runner over and one out as if it's a 100% certainty when making that decision.
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TXAggie2011
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1:22p, 8/14/17
AG
Quote:
Except almost every one of those scenarios could also play out if Gomez is allowed to hit.
Of course. But its 2x or more likely Gomez doesn't have a productive out and none of those scenarios play out than it is he does something productive and those scenarios play out.


Quote:
Carlos Gomez is either going to get a hit/walk (to advance the runners without sacrifcing an out) or get a hit to tie the game up (also without sacrificing an out) around 34% of the time.

The chances of Joey Gallo hitting a run-scoring single or a sac-fly is around a 20% chance.

The chances of Mike Napoli hitting a single...is less than 10%
.If your goal is to reach 34%, you're already approaching 30% for a single from one of the two or a sac fly from Gallo...add in the odds of a walk from Gallo and a sac fly from Napoli or a single from Odor...plus the more marginal things...and you're in toss-up territory at a minimum.


Quote:
(not an XBH that would tie the game anyways)
A XBH would tie the game anyways, true. However, part of the equation is the ability to score the winning run. You have a lot more confidence Beltre gets his old butt from 2nd to home rather than 1st to home on a single or an extra base hit.
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mhayden
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In reply to DannyDuberstein • 1:23p, 8/14/17
Exactly. If one is bringing up the percentage possibility of what normally would be a Gomez infield hit turning into a force out at 3rd/2nd but ignoring that there's also a possibility of Gomez either not getting the bunt down or it also turning into a force out at 3rd/2nd then they are being purposely biased.

Ditto even bringing Odor in as a possibility in the "what might happen"... Odor was the 4th batter due up in the inning -- talking about the possibilities of his at-bat while arguing for giving up an out with Gomez (which would make it significantly less likely Odor even gets an at-bat) is just grasping at unlikely straws.
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TXAggie2011
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1:31p, 8/14/17
AG
Quote:
Ditto even bringing Odor in as a possibility in the "what might happen"... Odor was the 4th batter due up in the inning -- talking about the possibilities of his at-bat while arguing for giving up an out with Gomez (which would make it significantly less likely Odor even gets an at-bat) is just grasping at unlikely straws.
There was a 21% chance Gallo or Napoli walked. There was a 24% chance Gallo or Napoli walked or got hit by a pitch.

Saying Odor would have an at bat isn't grasping at straws.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to DannyDuberstein • 1:36p, 8/14/17
AG
DannyDuberstein said:
You also have to weigh in the fact that not all attempts to sacrifice bunt are successful. Can't really go straight to weighing the %'s of Gallo with the runner over and one out as if it's a 100% certainty when making that decision.
Absolutely agree that's part of the weighing. If someone has Gomez's bunt attempt statistics that would be an interesting number to see.
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mhayden
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 1:38p, 8/14/17
TXAggie2011 said:
Quote:
Ditto even bringing Odor in as a possibility in the "what might happen"... Odor was the 4th batter due up in the inning -- talking about the possibilities of his at-bat while arguing for giving up an out with Gomez (which would make it significantly less likely Odor even gets an at-bat) is just grasping at unlikely straws.
There was a 21% chance Gallo or Napoli walked. There was a 24% chance Gallo or Napoli walked or got hit by a pitch.

Saying Odor would have an at bat isn't grasping at straws.


If Gallo or Napoli walk or get hit by a pitch then Gomez sac-bunting the runners over to 2nd and 3rd did not help you one bit.
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TXAggie2011
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In reply to mhayden • 1:49p, 8/14/17
AG
free_mhayden said:
TXAggie2011 said:
Quote:
Ditto even bringing Odor in as a possibility in the "what might happen"... Odor was the 4th batter due up in the inning -- talking about the possibilities of his at-bat while arguing for giving up an out with Gomez (which would make it significantly less likely Odor even gets an at-bat) is just grasping at unlikely straws.
There was a 21% chance Gallo or Napoli walked. There was a 24% chance Gallo or Napoli walked or got hit by a pitch.

Saying Odor would have an at bat isn't grasping at straws.
If Gallo or Napoli walk or get hit by a pitch then Gomez sac-bunting the runners over to 2nd and 3rd did not help you one bit.
First, that's a different claim than saying Odor getting an at-bat is "grasping at straws."

Second, you mean to say if Gallo walks or gets hit by a pitch. Napoli walking or getting hit doesn't give Gallo an opportunity with runners at 2nd and 3rd.

Third, yes, it'd move the runners over. But that doesn't make it irrelevant. It's still a possible outcome and thus something you have to include in the equation.
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mhayden
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1:50p, 8/14/17
Not sure if I was on the "might as well pay for one more year of Holland" rather than Ross/Cashner/Griffin train or not, but:

After putting up a sub 2.40 ERA in his first 10 starts, he's put up a 9+ ERA in his last 14 appearances to register in at (6-12) with a 5.68 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP -- arguably one of the worst everyday starters in the big leagues.

Looks like Texas was at least smart to cut-bait.
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TXAggie2011
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1:53p, 8/14/17
AG
And 4th, and this is getting into some real nitty-gritty, while its only a 1% adjustment, you have a 1% better chance of Napoli or Odor getting a hit than Gallo or Napoli.

Whether or not Gomez bunts or not, if you're just wanting a base hit, its preferable to have Napoli and Odor hit rather than Gallo and Napoli.
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TXAggie2011
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1:57p, 8/14/17
AG
It was time for both club and Holland to try another direction.

Too bad for Holland. He's getting desperate and been really down on himself in front of the media.
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Ag_07
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2:08p, 8/14/17
AG
FWIW...Hinch said in an interview they expected Gomez to bunt and that's one reason Giles was brought in. He had decided it was harder to bunt against Giles and he fields his position better than Devenski.

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TXAggie2011
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In reply to Ag_07 • 2:13p, 8/14/17
AG
Ag_07 said:
FWIW...Hinch said in an interview they expected Gomez to bunt and that's one reason Giles was brought in. He had decided it was harder to bunt against Giles and he fields his position better than Devenski.
Bringing in Giles against Gomez made all sorts of sense.

The bunt thing, I guess, but also Gomez has notably skewed towards terrible stats against "power" pitchers.

(For example, a .152 BA vs power pitchers vs. .269 against middle ground vs. .295 vs finesse pitchers.)

Devenski is a finesse guy and Giles a power guy. They split the chances Gomez got a hit in half.
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TXAggie2011
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2:17p, 8/14/17
AG
(And that's another reason why you more deeply consider Gomez bunting in that situation.)
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DannyDuberstein
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2:20p, 8/14/17
AG
He battled more mental than physical challenges while here, but his arm has started to fail him some. He lost some of the pop off his fastball last year, and it's gotten even worse this year. He's down at 91 after spending most of his career around 94. He's throwing 10% fewer FB's this year and 10% more curves.
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J.P. 03
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In reply to TXAggie2011 • 2:29p, 8/14/17
AG
TXAggie2011 said:
It was time for both club and Holland to try another direction.

Here's another direction I would support (from MLBTR):
Quote:
From a purely speculative standpoint, the Astros could once again look at left-handed starters that have fared well against southpaws this season. Houston tried that route with the Liriano acquisition, though the early returns haven't been pretty. Nonetheless, such an acquisition would come with a minimal or negligible cost. Derek Holland, for instance, has been effective against lefties but torched by righties this year and could likely be had for little more than salary relief
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TXAggie2011
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2:32p, 8/14/17
AG
That would be...fun to watch.

I'm not too big on trading for a starter because he matches up well with one side of the plate, but maybe that's the kind of no-prospects involved trade that's just down their alley.
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MSFC Aggie
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2:38p, 8/14/17
AG

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DannyDuberstein
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2:39p, 8/14/17
AG
There might be room for Profar after all if he could ever get his **** together. Of course, he's going to be a free agent right after that anyway.
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TXAggie2011
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3:09p, 8/14/17
AG
A lot of baseball to be played between the end of 2018 and 2019 and now...
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