Deshields let 2 pretty good pitches go. Needs to just look to slap one through a gap here.

Still nice to get a series win. Was gonna be a tough task today with Keuchel on the hill, but Cashner had a good showing

We had chances to get some runs - just couldn't get the big hit with guys on base.

AccidentProne said:

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Huell Babineaux said:

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That's why you don't bunt

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What? Down 1, runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs, you most certainly bunt there. Especially with Gallo coming up. That was just unlucky

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The run expectancy lost by giving away a free out doesn't offset the run expectancy gained by moving the runners up a base. Bunting is almost never the answer.

Ag2012 said:

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AccidentProne said:

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Huell Babineaux said:

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That's why you don't bunt

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What? Down 1, runners on 1st and 2nd with no outs, you most certainly bunt there. Especially with Gallo coming up. That was just unlucky

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The run expectancy lost by giving away a free out doesn't offset the run expectancy gained by moving the runners up a base. Bunting is almost never the answer.

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Its not a classic run expectancy situation because you're likely looking for the best way to score 1 run in that situation. Further, run expectancy spreads (including the odds to score 1 run) are going to shift away from normal when the guys coming up are hitting .251, .206, .197, .214.

The spread on run expectations for swinging away in that situation is probably going to look like boom or bust.

By that I mean there is going to be an above average chance you score a lot of runs, but a below average chance you score at least 1 run. (I can re-word if necessary).

Quote:

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By that I mean there is going to be an above average chance you score a lot of runs, but a below average chance you score at least 1 run. (I can re-word if necessary).

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To use a very simplified example, you have the same average run expectancy if you have a .75% chance of scoring none and a 25% chance of scoring 4 as you would if you have a 50% chance of scoring 0 and a 50% chance of scoring 2.

Both give you an average run expectancy of 1 but you have a 25% better chance of scoring at least once in the second scenario.

When you need 1 to tie and 2 to win, what're you playing for in the 8th inning?

As was said above though, Gomez and Gallo are both above average OPS guys. Giving away an out with one of them is counterproductive, especially with the 8 and 9 hitters behind them. You're essentially taking the bat out of the hands of one of your better hitters to create an all or nothing situation with the next guy. Rangers needed to make Giles work to get those outs, and instead let him off the hook easy with enough gas in the tank to come out and pitch the 9th too.

Your typical run expectancy calculator isn't what you'd really be looking at in that in that situation. It really comes down to which you find more likely:

A) Carlos Gomez getting a hit or walk

B) Joey Gallo hitting a sac-fly.



Seeing how in 530 plate appearances Joey Gallo has 0 sac-flies and Carlos Gomez has a 0.342 on-base-percentage, statistically it was a very poor strategy to bunt.

Focusing in on OPS obscures the odds of scoring X amount of runs for the sake of having the highest average number of runs scored. It's mean focused at the expense of mode and median. See the above.

When it's the 8th and it's a 1 run game, it's not so clear to me that I should focus on mean.

Joey Gallo doesn't hit sac-flies.

Carlos Gomez is a well-above-average on-base guy.

Taking the bat out of Gomez' hands to hope Gallo does something he has never been able to do is just not sound strategy.

It's really that simple.

A Gomez walk doesn't score a run. A Gomez walk or hit of course would be preferred to a sac bunt, but there's a 1/3 chance that positive result happens and 2/3 chance it doesn't.

Interesting mathematical scenario if you're looking for the 1 or 2 runs.

Whether you are looking for 1 or 2 runs, it really doesn't change the equation that much. Texas was very obviously going for 2 (or more), but even if they were looking simply to tie -- Joey Gallo has never hit a sac-fly. Joey Gallo doesn't hit singles. It's long been established what Joey Gallo does:

Strikeout
Walk
Homerun


A sac-bunt then a strikeout is a poor percentage play.

A sac-bunt then a walk is a poor percentage play.

A sac-bunt then a homerun is a poor percentage play.



I'd agree that with most hitters that don't have such ridiculous splits as Gallo that you could make a strong case for a sac-bunt, but sac-bunting for Gallo just didn't make much statistical sense.

It's amazing to me that Gallo doesn't have a single sac fly all season.

So taking your argument into consideration that the primary focus is just to bring one run home and tie it up, you can take the runner at first out of the equation and only consider the lead man. According to the expectancy table below, sacrificing him over to 3B lowers your RE from 1.073 (expect to tie the game), to 0.898 (expect to lose). Considering both runners you've lowered your RE from 1.442 to 1.29. Gomez and Gallo had a combined 2 GIDP on the year between them so that was hardly a concern. Sac bunting (as always) was the "conservative" cop-out call for the manager and we were almost definitely better off letting those guys swing away with no outs and two men on.

Well to be fair, sac-fly situations aren't a very large sample size, and when you are big power guy that bats down in the lineup, they are also ripe for IBB or pitching around you.

Yup. Even if Gallo wasn't such a "boom or bust" guy, Carlos Gomez has an 800+ OPS -- you don't take the bat out of his hands there.

About the only case you could make for it was that the idea was Gomez was bunting for a hit as well.

But really it was just likely a backup manager making a pretty cookie-cutter call.


And the idea that Texas was playing more for 1-run to tie it kinda goes out the window when they pinch-ran Drew Robinson for Adrian Beltre at 2nd.

Those are only poor statistical scenarios relative to a scenario of Gomez getting on base of which on the season he has had about a 29% chance of doing against a reliever on the first at bat around and perhaps has been lower against a right handed reliever.

Yes, I'd love to look at since the all star break or sometime if I could do so easily.

gougler08 said:

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It's amazing to me that Gallo doesn't have a single sac fly all season.

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Ditto. Obviously he has a lot of strikeouts, but you'd expect with his power that he would have some sac fly's as well.

Again, you are looking at making a mean based decision over a mode based decision.

If you make mode-based decisions over the course of the season you will have worse outcomes overall.

TXAggie2011 said:

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They're only poor relative to a scenario of Gomez getting on base of which on the season he has had about a 29% chance of doing against a reliever on the first at bat around and perhaps has been lower against a right handed reliever.

Yes, I'd love to look at since the all star break or sometime if I could do so easily.

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I know you love to be contrarian, but seeing as how when you remove homeruns (which scores the runners from 1st and 2nd as easily as it does 2nd and 3rd) Joey Gallo is hitting 0.099 vs righties, I have a sneaking suspicion that even if you whittle down Carlos Gomez into ridiculously tiny splits your point will still fall flat.

If your strategy involves putting Joey Gallo in a position where he needs to get a base hit (not a homerun) or a sac-fly, then it's just not a sound strategy. When it takes the bat out of the hands of a 800+ OPS hitter, it's even worse.

Ag2012 said:

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If you make mode-based decisions over the course of the season you will have worse outcomes overall.

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But we're making a decision for a single inning in a single game.

Not how we will play it every time no matter the score or inning.

Hell, you could even take it one-step further and if the Astros were truly scared of Joey Gallo beating them with a base-hit (or sac-fly), they could have IBB'd him and brought up Mike Napoli who is far more likely to roll one over into a DP.

Also pretty incredible to consider how much of a game of inches that was. Rangers stranded 9 runners (to Houston's 5), each team's home run was a wall-scraper, Napoli had a 392 foot out, Odor banged one off the wall and ended up stranded, Rangers hit a handful of liners right at corner infielders with RISP.

That's the way baseball go. All-in-all, solid start to the home stand and we're in good shape to fight for a wild card spot.

Amen. This offseason is a huge one for the franchise and the September call up season will set the table for that. Get Calhoun, Guzman, Sadzeck and YoMen some meaningful reps with the big club to see what we have to work with within the system and then we'll have some idea of just how much of a rebuild we need. We've been stockpiling international pool cash so even if we don't get Otani, we should be able to sign some other big time international talent. These next few months should be really interesting and WC contention is just gravy on top of that.

I still can't believe Banister was thrown out especially if you watch replay.

I was curious to see some numbers on Gallo's no sac-fly situation, so I decided to spend entirely too much time looking up numbers with little to no idea what I was looking for or what point I was trying to make.

He only has 14 PAs with a Runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs. Of those, he has 4 walks, 4 strikeouts, and 1 HR. So 65% of those PAs have been Three True Outcome. That leaves him with 5 other opportunities for a sac-fly on the year. 3 of those 5 went for singles, so we're down to 2 chances. I guess neither were deep flyball outs.

I looked at Aaron Judge's stats in the same situation since he is up there with Gallo in TTO for the year. 25 PAs, 7 walks, 8 strikeouts, and 2 HRs. 68% TTO in that situation. He has 1 sac-fly for the year.

Gallo didn't even need to bat in (a) run(s) there, it's about the odds of anyone doing it with a Gomez sac bunt placing runners on 2nd and 3rd versus it happening if Gomez swings away.

I don't know the answer, but I do take a "contrary" view to how 2012 was approaching the question.

Is there a free situation finder out there that can list out the 14 PAs?

Rangers as a whole don't hit a lot of sac flys; it'd be interesting to see what they're doing in situations like those 2 PAs of Gallo's.

Not that I could find.

Edit: Baseball Reference

As a team, 196 PAs. 44 strikeouts, 20 walks, 4 HRs, 27 singles, 5 doubles, 1 triple. That's 95 non-strikeout outs. 25 sac-flys. Unfortunately nothing on what kinds of outs they are making in the remaining 70 PAs, although they do have 9 GDPs.

Hmm. Thanks, good sir or madam.

As mentioned previously, the # of actual plate appearances with men on 3rd is a pretty small sample size, even over the course of his career.

But for a situation like this, even diving that deep into his splits really isn't needed. As has been said ad nauseam around here, Gallo has shown to be a "three outcomes" hitter - he hits homeruns, he strikes out, he walks.

In all 3 of those situations wasting an out to move runners over isn't a smart move. To waste an out moving them over with a 800+ OPS hitter is a really dumb move.