TXAggie2011 said:

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This isn't a defense of the Astros, but its always easy to question not acting when you're anyone but the actor himself.

All year, they've been running wild on great hitting and okay pitching. A top-2 hitter goes down, another top-5 hitter goes down...they've struggled to score runs consistently and then you add the McCullers injury and its just a tough series of injuries they're trying to combat.

I've not looked too far back, but its not like every World Series winner made a blockbuster trade or added a real playoff contributor. 2014 Giants traded half a piece and a piece of junk for a struggling Jake Peavy---he helped in the division series but went out and was the SUCK in the rest of the playoffs.

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I agree for the most part -- and if the price to solidify the rotation was of say, the 2010 Cliff Lee haul then maybe as GM I don't make that move.

But Gray and Darvish were had for a package that would have basically only downgraded the Astros farm system from "great" to "real good"... Maybe the cards don't fall that way, but if Houston doesn't win a title I bet there's at least one game in one of the rounds where a Yu Darvish or a Sonny Gray getting the ball might have made the difference in advancing (whether that is for Houston, New York or Los Angeles).

gigem1223 said:

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Looking at the upcoming schedule....other than the weekend series against the Astros (who are playing like **** lately)...Rangers play a bunch bad teams they should beat. They've yet to take care of business against bad teams this season, so I'm not holding my breath but they have a real opportunity to get back into this thing.

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I think most of the AL is thinking that way right now. Its a pretty giant pool of mediocrity which is making it quite interesting to follow. I've been yawning for about 2 months trying to pay attention to the NL East (and the rest of the NL, for that matter.)

The Astros are treating how they got here as a sunk cost, which upsets the hot take pundits of radio and internet but isn't clearly the wrong move as far as anything actually important.

Even if they view it as sunk cost, how they achieved the current roster that is outplaying the rest of the AL by 6+ games was formed largely due to being historically bad for 4 consecutive years.

Unless they plan on doing that again, then there will likely never be another time in the near future where they have young talent that is cost controlled on the cheap for multiple years.

If the cost was extremely detrimental to your future then that's one thing... But to use the previous analogy -- they were looking to buy a house, it was a buyer's market, they were flush with cash... and they decided to sit on the cash hoping it might be worth more later?

If their starting pitching throws gems in the playoffs and their bats go silent then the lack of move will be OK... But if giving up a "Willie Calhoun-level" player from a stacked system ends up being the difference? Then cross-off another year from the window where the fruit of the 100-loss season labors takes one step closer to free-agency.

And as far as what is or isn't clearly the wrong move... well all we've got to go on at this point is the data we have from the time the decision was made.

In the 9 games since the trade deadline the Astros starters have put up an average line of 5.2 IP / 4.5 ER

Sonny Gray has gone 6IP/2ER.
Yu Darvish has gone 7IP/0ER.



With the data we have thus far, I'd say it's most certainly the wrong move.

The prices for both pitchers was just shockingly low. Don't know how a competitive team with a quality farm could resist that temptation, and you get your choice - do you want the even cheaper rental or do you want a guy you are going to control for a few more years. Especially when some Rule V decisions are not far away.

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Then cross-off another year from the window where the fruit of the 100-loss season labors takes one step closer to free-agency.

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Carlos Correa and Derek Fisher are the only two players selected inside the top 40 in the three drafts after the 100+-loss seasons that are still with the organization. (You want to extend it to after their 92 loss season and you can add Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Daz Cameron.)

Correa, Bregman, and Tucker are the only 3 selected inside the top 37.

Basically, the "fruit" of the 100-loss seasons is Carlos Correa. Sure, stretch it into Ken Giles as well if you so desire. They have Correa and Giles through at least 2021 and the other 3 aforementioned players well beyond that.

The window is long and they'll have plenty of opportunity. This story is far from complete.

DannyDuberstein said:

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The prices for both pitchers was just shockingly low. Don't know how a competitive team with a quality farm could resist that temptation, and you get your choice - do you want the even cheaper rental or do you want a guy you are going to control for a few more years. Especially when some Rule V decisions are not far away.

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The prices certainly ended up "low", but that's not because the Rangers and A's started low; a number of teams resisted or were coaxed in the final hours.

The Rangers at the very last minute found a guy in an NL organization that pretty much called himself a DH. The Sonny Gray trade is a little more interesting, that trade almost fell apart the last day---the point being the Astros weren't alone in resisting those two players. Sure, they're unique in not making any moves and sure, that's perhaps going to be a big, and very fair, question for years to come.

We'll have to see what happens to these prospects they could have traded. What do they do for the big club? Has Houston kept them in part due to a belief they can flip them for something better in the future?

Many questions that can't be answered right now, this season, and maybe even further than that.

Springer was the #11 overall pick.
Correa was the #1 overall pick.
Appel was the #1 overall pick (which turned into Giles).
Bregman was the #2 overall pick.

That's 3 of your top hitters and arguably your 2nd best reliever. Put in fWAR % form, thats 40% of your productive offense and 22% of your productive relief core.

So if the idea is to be "really good for a long time", then you aren't going to be picking in the Top 15 of the draft too often (for comparison, the Rangers have had one pick above #15 since 2009).

Thus, this window extends from a couple of years ago when these players started hitting the Major League roster until they start hitting free agency (or in a lot of these great players cases, potentially expensive arbitration years).

That doesn't mean the team will suck, but it means ownership will actually have to open up their pocketbook in free agency rather than leaning on the production of top draft picks -- because it's unlikely most of your #20 or #25 picks are going to be putting up 3+ WAR seasons.

It doesn't mean Houston won't win the World Series this year, nor does it mean Houston won't have future chances to win the World Series. But when you have a team that leads the league in wins and is needing starting pitching help, and a front-line starter could be had for what would likely be your 5th best prospect and a couple of lottery tickets and you don't pull the trigger... only to watch your starting pitching continue to implode the next week and a half...

Well then yeah, those internet and radio pundits probably do have some legitimate talking points right now -- and will even more if Houston falters in the playoffs due to SP.

I'm not sure how shockingly low the price for Sonny Gray was. The Yankees ended up sending two guys who came into this season in the top 60/50 of most prospect rankings. Maybe the sheen had worn off that Mateo kid but just a thought.

I think we saw the league as a whole put a relatively strong resistance to two guys with great stuff but who really have had only 1 complete great season each in either of their respective careers.

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Springer was the #11 overall pick.

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Springer was drafted in 2011 after a 76 win 2010 season under the old guard both in the front office and on the field (edit- a season during which they very much began intending to win games.)

Carry on, half-pint.

No one said it was a good season but you can't lump that into the historic nosedive the franchise took that got them the other guys you're harping about. I'll add you don't need to lose 86 games to draft a good player. I'm other unsure what point I'm trying to make. I've not read more than about 30% of what you've said but that first line caught my attention.

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On a side note, have you and AngelFlight considered dating? It seems like you two have a lot in common - a desire to try and argue really bad points being at the top of that list.

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I'm curious what point you think I'm trying to make. After the below, I'm not sure we exactly disagree on much, its pretty much a repeat of what I had just said and have said.

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Springer was the #11 overall pick.
Correa was the #1 overall pick.
Appel was the #1 overall pick (which turned into Giles).
Bregman was the #2 overall pick.

That's 3 of your top hitters and arguably your 2nd best reliever. Put in fWAR % form, thats 40% of your productive offense and 22% of your productive relief core.

So if the idea is to be "really good for a long time", then you aren't going to be picking in the Top 15 of the draft too often (for comparison, the Rangers have had one pick above #15 since 2009).

Thus, this window extends from a couple of years ago when these players started hitting the Major League roster until they start hitting free agency (or in a lot of these great players cases, potentially expensive arbitration years).

That doesn't mean the team will suck, but it means ownership will actually have to open up their pocketbook in free agency rather than leaning on the production of top draft picks -- because it's unlikely most of your #20 or #25 picks are going to be putting up 3+ WAR seasons.

It doesn't mean Houston won't win the World Series this year, nor does it mean Houston won't have future chances to win the World Series. But when you have a team that leads the league in wins and is needing starting pitching help, and a front-line starter could be had for what would likely be your 5th best prospect and a couple of lottery tickets and you don't pull the trigger... only to watch your starting pitching continue to implode the next week and a half...

Well then yeah, those internet and radio pundits probably do have some legitimate talking points right now -- and will even more if Houston falters in the playoffs due to SP.

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Riveting Texas Rangers talk.

TXAggie2011 said:

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No one said it was a good season but you can't lump that into the historic nosedive the franchise took that got them the other guys you're harping about. I'll add you don't need to lose 86 games to draft a good player. I'm other unsure what point I'm trying to make. I've not read more than about 30% of what you've said but that first line caught my attention.

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And rather than actually reading it in context you picked one thing out and proceeded to try and show it to be wrong -- it's kind of your shtick.

Had you taken the time to, you know, actually read the discussion you would have seen that I wasn't saying the Astros are good because they lost 100 games and they got George Springer.

I'm saying that the idea that this window will continue on after this current crop starts costing 5-6x what they cost now because the Astros have some kind of great franchise plan is naive. If Houston has an idea that they are going to be good for an extended period (and thus don't have to "go for it" this year, even if the cost to do so is minimal) then they are going to be drafting in the 25-30 range, not the 1-15 range -- which means that it's highly unlikely they are going to be drafting guys over the next few years that are going to be making up 40% of their offensive production.

This team is good now because they were historically awful to just bad for 5-6 years.

If you're counting Springer, then about the only thing I can figure is you're mad I said the window runs to 2021 rather than 2020 (Springer's free agency.)

Othwerwise, let me see:

Astros have a window.
Astros could win the World Series. They could not win the World Series. They could be really good, they could not.
Its a "fair" talking point to question this decision. ("Fair" is my word from earlier.)

What on earth has you so riled up, Mhayden?

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This team is good now because they were historically awful to just bad for 5-6 years.

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I've read it all and this is a revision of your argument.

I've never seen someone so mad at a "I think we pretty much agree" comment.

PatAg said:

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Riveting Texas Rangers talk.

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Over/under how many Longhorn fans go to receive a hat from their alma mater on Texas State Day at the Ballpark on the 13th?

Well, as we argue about Houston's GM, it appears someone asked News Scruggs if Jon Daniels was on the hot seat...

As Rangers' pitching situation remains in flux, is Jon Daniels on the hot seat? (DMN, Newy Scrugs)

No I get it. But George Springer isn't the type of draftee you need to be bad to draft.

Yes, they won't get a super freak athlete like Correa.

Hence "you don't need to be bad to draft a good player."

I think Springer went about where he was expected to that draft.

But if the talking point is the Astros wont be able to draft a great player unless they're bad or worse, that's a stretch. It just comes down to scouting and good luck. Hell, sometimes drafting the right #1 overall takes some good luck.

Fair enough on Springer.

I got me an A&M night hat yesterday at lunch from a family friend who works for the club. I feel like they upped the quality this year

Speaking on A&M hats. I have about 10 extra

AccidentProne said:

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Speaking on A&M hats. I have about 10 extra

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What do they look like this year?

AccidentProne said:

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Speaking on A&M hats. I have about 10 extra

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I wouldn't mind buying a couple... or at least making it worth your while, if you can't "sell" them.

http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/81808/mlbs-2017-all-disappointment-team

Guy list most disappointing players at each position. Rangers have 3 guys listed: odor, dyson and lucroy

AccidentProne said:

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Speaking on A&M hats. I have about 10 extra

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How do I buy one from you?

TXAggie2011 said:

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Well, as we argue about Houston's GM, it appears someone asked News Scruggs if Jon Daniels was on the hot seat...

As Rangers' pitching situation remains in flux, is Jon Daniels on the hot seat? (DMN, Newy Scrugs)

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Question: What reason is there to watch the Rangers the rest of the season?

Newy Scruggs: I'm watching to see the next bomb Joey Gallo hits.

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With Beltre 3000 out of the way.....pretty much this

Huell Babineaux said:

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AccidentProne said:

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Speaking on A&M hats. I have about 10 extra

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How do I buy one from you?

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This!

Flipped on MLB network to see what's what....and they are showing the Royals/Cards game. Neftali Feliz comes in and is a hot mess. Retires no one and gives up a granny to Fowler.

/puke face

MSFC Aggie said:

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Flipped on MLB network to see what's what....and they are showing the Royals/Cards game. Neftali Feliz comes in and is a hot mess. Retires no one and gives up a granny to Fowler.

/puke face

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Dude has been broken since October 2011

Dodgers get 3 in top 1. I'm guessing Yu is enjoying his run support.