Stone hands everywhere

Corporal Punishment said:

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I picked a ****ing great time to turn on the game

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My BIL had just switched over from the Cardinals game. Watching at his place. At least he had already reminded me yesterday about how his kid's went to high school with effing David Freese.

Pretty sure we could restock the farm real quick if we just sold off the majority of the rotation (Cashner, Darvish, Hamels). Cashner's and Hamels' stock couldn't get much higher.

I know you can't trust Fox Trax, but there have been some extremely questionable calls tonight on balls and strikes.

Also, I'd like to see Raymond start drinking heavily during the games. Dumb and drunk sounds more entertaining than just dumb. It worked for Harry Caray.

Mazara was hosed big time. Those 2 strike calls weren't even close.

gigem1223 said:

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Sell, Sell, Sell

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No reason not to. I'd listen to all offers

We have the perfect opportunity to get a good return with the way Cash, Darvish and Hamels are pitching. Something tells me JD is too stubborn to give up and do it though,

If he's buying/selling based on how the team is playing together and the soundness of play (talking fundamentals, showing growth, etc.) then it has to be pointing towards selling.

I'm still inclined to guess the Rangers generally stay quiet.

Might be off, but some quick research shows Odor is hitless in last 19 at-bats. Yikes

I believe that's correct.

Its now exactly 3 months since Odor's OPS was above .680.

Beltre Countdown

bigcat22 said:

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Might be off, but some quick research shows Odor is hitless in last 19 at-bats. Yikes

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Yeah, I think Evan Grant posted something on twitter similar to this. I think Evan added that he hasn't walked in that span of ABs either.

And Banister, while he is hitting him lower in the lineup, refuses to sit him down for any amount of time. Robinson should spell Odor for a couple days. I don't see how running him out there will do anything but compound the poor plate appearances, but running a struggling guy out there until he's pretty much shot seems to be Banister's MO at this point.

Its frustrating. Banny is obviously going to let Odor try to work it out. But he (Odor) doesn't seem to be making any adjustments. If so, curious as to why Banny just keeps letting him go up there hacking away.

Quote:

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I think Evan added that he hasn't walked in that span of ABs either.

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Odor hasn't walked in his last 30 or so plate appearances. It was July 5th, the last time he walked. He also got hit by a pitch that day. It was a good day for him.

He also walked on July 1. He walked once in the entire month of June. He has 3 walks since May 26.

It takes some real effort to walk that little. MLB pitchers just aren't that accurate.

Since the All-Star Break....

Odor: 0-15
Andrus: 2-17
Choo: 2-15
Mazara: 2-13
Robinson: 1-9

on the plus/neutral side...

Napoli: 4-10
Lucroy: 3-10
Beltre: 4-15
Gomez: 3-11

Team BA of 0.177

Odor was absolutely raking the two weeks before the break too. Looks like taking a week off broke whatever groove he finally got into.

I feel like they are at the tipping point that will determine how it goes for the next few years. Can sell out completely and fully restock system or stay put and slowly sink. The sad thing is they have all the pieces (minus shutdown closer) to win a WS.

How much is the Beltre factor playing into their decision? Feels like same mistake Mavs made with Dirk

Odds looking good that Dyson will have more saves with Giants than Ranger's team leader by end of season

There's no reason to not see what you can get for guys. The Astros are going to be good for a while, or at least until their good players' contracts come up for extension. It makes sense to begin a rebuild and be better later than compete for a WC, when it is highly doubtful at best that we would make a postseason run given the issues/inconsistencies with this team

Best Newberg Report in a long time with posting of Sheehan article . No mention of Pelicans or some other stupid story from him.

This pretty much sums it all up

"The Joe Sheehan Newsletter
Vol. 9, No. 49
July 17, 2017

After a walkoff 4-3 loss to the Royals yesterday, a game that ended with Shin-Soo Choo losing a ball in the sun to allow the winning run to score, the Rangers slipped back under .500 at 45-46. They are dead in the AL West race, of course, 16 games behind the Astros, but they're one of a half-dozen teams bunched in the AL Wild Card race. The Rangers begin the day 2 games behind the Yankees for the second Wild Card, three back of the Rays for the top spot. Seven teams are separated by four games for the two playoff berths. Of those seven, the Yankees and Rays have far and away the best underlying performance, with the Mariners and Rangers next in line.

It's been an odd year for the Rangers, who have essentially the same roster they had a year ago. Last year's Rangers outscored their opponents by eight runs all season; they also rode a strong bullpen and unusually well-timed performance to a 36-11 record in one-run games. They won the AL West going away on the strength of that mark. This year's Rangers have actually outscored their opponents by 31 runs in just about 60% of a season, but have underperformed that they're just 7-15 in one-run games. The bullpen that was so impressive last year imploded early in this one, and the team hasn't hit nearly so well in high-leverage situations as it did in 2016.

The 2016-17 Rangers are likely to be one of the signature examples when we argue against the idea that teams have a particularly ability to win close games. There's been minimal change in their personnel, no change in management, and yet a huge swing in close-game record. Playing well in close games isn't a skill over and above playing well.

However they got here, the Rangers are now faced with a decision over what to do about it. The division title is out of reach, leaving them playing for half a playoff berth. We know that teams can advance to the World Series and even win one from the Wild Card Game, but it's a daunting challenge mathematically, assuming all playoff teams are equal, the Wild Card gives you a 6.25% chance at a title. Realistically, it's far below that when you consider how often the Wild Card has to play better teams without home-field advantage. To pick a number, the Diamondbacks have the best chance of being a Wild Card team of any team in baseball, about 83%. They have a 3.1% chance to win the World Series. That's what you're playing for if you're the Rangers, a chance at a chance at a chance.

About two weeks ago, we compared the Royals and the Twins, two teams then tied in the standings but with considerably different rosters and futures. The 2017 Rangers split the difference between those two. In Yu Darvish, they have a free agent who, after years lost to elbow surgery, is pitching at the level of a #2 starter. He's been their nominal ace when healthy, and on any given day is still their ace. He's also, pending how his season ends, in line to make at least $25 million a year in free agency. Were he to be made available in trade, he'd be as attractive a rental as there is conceding that rentals tend to return less in trade than controlled players. The Rangers are also set to lose Carlos Gomez (31, hitting .251/.331/.471, rapidly losing his speed) and catcher Jonathan Lucroy (31, .257/.302/.361, rapidly losing his framing skill). They're not the Royals, losing half their roster value on October 1, but the Rangers are in position to lose some players without getting much in return. It's hard to see Texas making a qualifying offer to Gomez or Lucroy at this point.

Like the Twins, though, the Rangers are bringing along a core of young players who should be around for a while and should be able to contend. Three of the Rangers' top five players by playing time are 23-year-old Rougned Odor, 22-year-old Nomar Mazara and 23-year-old Joey Gallo. 24-year-old Delino DeShields has been up and down while generating 1.8 bWAR with his OBP (.341) and legs (19/4 SB/CS, plus defense in left field). Jurickson Profar's career has stalled, yet he's still just 24 years old. The argument for selling is to bring in players who can join that group, particularly a true center fielder or a young starting pitcher.

The Rangers don't have to think long term. While they are set to lose Darvish, Gomez, and Lucroy, they will retain much of their roster value into 2018, about 71% of the positive bWAR generated by the team so far. Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, and Cole Hamels are all signed through at least 2018. The Rangers will also have a lot of money to play with; they have committed just $93 million in 2018 salaries, which gives them room to replace Darvish in the market, and will certainly have them at the forefront of Shohei Otani rumors all winter.

So the Rangers are nowhere near a rebuild, yet have about a 3-in-4 chance of missing the playoffs as-is. They have one incredibly attractive trade chip, and a few others throw Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross out there, I guess who could at least return a low-level prospect. The furthest out they should be focusing is next year, with much of the team's productive players under contract, with a group of under-25 players who should be improving, and with plenty of money available for adding to the group.

And yet... 2 games out. Mind you, 2 games out with the memory of 2015 fresh in everyone's, including the fans', minds. The '15 Rangers were 49-52 on the afternoon of July 31, 2015, when they traded a slew of prospects for Cole Hamels and Jake Diekman. At the time, with the Rangers eight games out in the West and four out in the Wild Card race behind five other teams, the deal seemed like a play for 2016. The Rangers went 39-22 after that, not only lapping the Wild Card field but chasing down the Astros to win the AL West. It's hard to give up on a season in July when you did that just two years ago.

I like to say that for many teams in the Rangers' spot, they want to either win seven in a row or lose seven in row, just to make the decision easier. The Rangers, by their place in the standings, by the composition of their roster, by the mix of contracts they hold, are in as tough a spot as you'll ever see. There's just no preponderance of evidence that points the team in one direction or another. There are still two weeks to the deadline, time for that seven-game streak to push Jon Daniels and his staff to one pole or the other. Today, however, the Rangers straddle the fence. They are as hard a buy/sell decision as I've seen in years.

Actually, that's a misnomer. The Rangers are a hold/sell decision. With the young core, with the division out of reach, there's no case for the Rangers to be a strong buyer. They shouldn't be putting top-100 guys like Leody Taveras or Yohander Mendez into trades, shouldn't be in play for the big-ticket items like Justin Verlander or Zach Britton or Andrew McCutchen. You don't make a big play when your only hope is the Coin Flip Round.

No, the Rangers' decisions are really just one: whether to keep or sell Darvish. He won't bring back the Quintana package, but then again, Aroldis Chapman returned Gleyber Torres and then some for a third of the innings that Darvish will pitch. Realistically, the Rangers' ask would be one top-50 type, and then a couple of other prospects. With their infield set and their intentions to contend in 2018, the Rangers have the luxury of focusing on close-to-the-majors outfielders were they to shop Darvish. Could they ask for Clint Frazier from the Yankees? Bradley Zimmer from the Indians? Derek Fisher from the Astros? The Rangers' other short-term need is reliable, preferably controllable starting pitching. Would the Rockies move Jeff Hoffman for the top-end starter they need? How about the Rays with their upper-levels depth? Would they move Blake Snell or (and?) Jose De Leon (currently out with a lat strain) for the starter that pushes them closer to the Red Sox in the East?

The Rangers can trade 12-13 Darvish starts for more than 100 from a controllable pitcher, and they can use that pitcher in seasons where the top team in the AL West doesn't run away and hide. As hard as it would be to part ways with someone who has been so important to the franchise, as hard as it would be to send this message to the team and the fans, the potential gain in trading Darvish trading just 70 or 80 innings of him is too high. The Rangers should cash in this chip.
"

I don't think you need to tear it all down for a total rebuild. I think you look at pawning off the short-term pieces that you're going to have to replace anyway in the next year or two. And if you aren't ready to basically do whatever it will take to resign Yu, trade him.

Joe Cole said:

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Best Newberg Report in a long time with posting of Sheehan article . No mention of Pelicans or some other stupid story from him.

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I hear you. I appreciate the info that he provides, but there are some days where I start reading it and just hit "delete". Sometimes he goes on and on and on and you just want him to get to the point. But his heart is in the right place and he puts a lot of info out there for everyone in a daily email that otherwise I might have to go to several sites to find.

DannyDuberstein said:

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I don't think you need to tear it all down for a total rebuild. I think you look at pawning off the short-term pieces that you're going to have to replace anyway in the next year or two. And if you aren't ready to basically do whatever it will take to resign Yu, trade him.

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I agree with this. We could sell off a few pieces and not be in a total rebuild mode.

In a not totally unrelated note, I saw that the Brewers catcher got hurt in the collision with the Pirate baserunner. Not sure how bad he is hurt, but maybe they'd take Lucroy back for the rest of the season? I'd be good with a Chirinos/Nicholas platoon behind the plate.

Can we discuss Mazara's continuing to hit 3rd in this lineup?

.216 BA with a .715 OPS so far in July which disappointingly is a better OPS than he had in April or June, and a better batting average than he had in June.

I guess I just reckon its time to to hit Beltre 3rd and have a debate about which power hitter to bat 4th.

This has been a really awesome trip. Went down to D.C. today. Really cool experience. There is way too much stuff to do that I wasn't able to cram it all into the 3-4 hours I was down there. I did see the Capitol building, Washington Monument, Lincoln Memorial, and the air and space museum. Did the flight simulator and set a museum record for most solo kills

Now I'm headed over to the park for game 2. Looks like Choo got us started with a homerun!

AccidentProne said:

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This has been a really awesome trip. Went down to D.C. today. Really cool experience. There is way too much stuff to do that I wasn't able to cram it all into the 3-4 hours I was down there. I did see the Capitol building, Washington Monument, Lincoln Memorial, and the air and space museum. Did the flight simulator and set a museum record for most solo kills

Now I'm headed over to the park for game 2. Looks like Choo got us started with a homerun!

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Glad you're having a good time; Air and Space is my favorite Smithsonian.

Mazara is disappointing there, but the problem is so are the other LHH. I'd be good with moving Gallo up in the lineup when he plays, but otherewise it becomes a problem of clustering your LHH and RHH in the lineup if you are having Mazara, Odor and Gallo and even Robinson when he plays all hitting in the bottom half. To move Mazara down, you'd like be moving Gomez or Nap or Lucroy up into a top 4 spot, which would drive people crazy too.

Lucroy's 4th straight start?

ugh

Squirrel Master said:

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Mazara is disappointing there, but the problem is so are the other LHH. I'd be good with moving Gallo up in the lineup when he plays, but otherewise it becomes a problem of clustering your LHH and RHH in the lineup if you are having Mazara, Odor and Gallo and even Robinson when he plays all hitting in the bottom half. To move Mazara down, you'd like be moving Gomez or Nap or Lucroy up into a top 4 spot, which would drive people crazy too.

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Bannister isn't in the infantry and if he has to hit two or three left/right-handers in a row because it gets everything else in a more sensible order, then I think he should do it.

Mazara hitting 4th so that he avoids three righties in a row at the top is still preferable to Mazara hitting 3rd in my mind. (He could also do another arguably sensible thing and switch Choo and Andrus).

Looks like ABD is going to get some work tonight

So much for getting a lead early

Pour it on Baltimore....leave no doubt in JD's mind on what to do.