Astros 2016 not so improbable, inconceivable march to the World Series

312,140 Views | 3934 Replies | Last: 8 yr ago by Sea Gull
Ag_07
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AG
This team is so odd. There's talent but these guys are just not getting it done. That and it seems like they're just snake bit. We scold so many balls right at guys, have so many bloops fall in for hits against us, and can't get anything to fall our way. Boston LF loses on in the lights but falls to the ground and catches it, while Springer loses his lights battle that cost us a game. Stuff like that pisses me off.

We're putting up good numbers offensively (4th in OBP, 2nd in SLG, 3rd in OPS, and 5th in Rs) but nothing to show for it. Which is why the offense doesn't really bother me. Seems like we've improved a bit (I know not saying much) with RISP and I think that will need to and continue to get better so I'm not overly concerned with the bats. We're a feast of famine club that was built to produce runs with the expense of the K. It's just who we are and how we play and the numbers indicate that the approach and philosophy is working. Unless I hear that this coaching staff is telling guys to take pitches and sit there with the bat on their shoulders in clutch situations, I won't be blaming them.

Pitching is a different story....We're F'ing atrocious on the mound. Starters can't get out of the 1st without giving up runs and continue to only go what seems like 4 innings every outing. Our BP has improved lately sans Giles. I don't have numbers, but it seems that other than Giles our BP has been pretty damned good. Devenski is a stud and Gregerson has actually impressed!

I think moving forward the starting rotation has got to get their ish together. McCullers coming back (eventually I guess, I don't know what his status is) should help some by bumping Feldman. I'm not even sure I want him in the BP right now. It'll be interesting to see how that affects Deveski's role. Do you leave him in long relief, move him to middle relief hoping you don't need to rely on a long guy, or work him into the starting rotation? A starting 5 of Dallas, Collin, Lance, Fiers, and Fister looks a lot better on paper and hopefully Lance sparks a resurgence in this rotation, because they're awful right now.

If the starting 5 can come around we'll be OK and as a poster above stated we're still only 4 GB. If we get to being double digit GB then I'll panic, but until then I'll wait and see if the they can turn this thing around. Bottom line is we've got to win this division because we ain't winning a WC again.

Texaggie7nine
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Not a bad deal.

$50 for 10 games, if you can make all the weekday games in may.

http://mlb.mlb.com/hou/ticketing/ballpark_pass.jsp
7nine
iBrad
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Devenski is about to pitch his way into the starting rotation. Take your pick of Fiers, Feldman, and Fister to move to the pen. They're all about the same. And sadly, McHugh HS been right there with them.
Ag_07
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I think so but I also think you'll get a bit of the Marwin Gonzales debacle in that if he moves to the rotation you've got no one worth a sheet in long relief. Maybe we're better off leaving him there until the rotation shows signs of getting it worked out, then moving him.

I don't know but the man can pitch and it'll be interesting to see how they handle him.
JJxvi
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Unless youre playing a playoff game (in which case long relief is one of your other starters usually anyway) who you have in long relief role means **** as far as winning goes. Its just somebody to eat innings when a game is already lost in most cases, could make andifference in like one or two games at most.
Ag_07
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I would tend to agree, especially for a playoff team, but I think it's the opposite for this current team.

When your starters are giving up runs early and all of them are struggling to make it out of the 4th and 5th innings long relief becomes a bit more important. If you're using him often (like we are now) it's nice to have that guy that can come in and stop the bleeding and keep you within striking distance.

Devenski kept us in the game last night. If Feldman were the guy we had trotted out there last night no way it's a 2 run game come the 9th inning.
titanmaster_race
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quote:
Everything that she says proves she never played baseball and instead played a game which is DOMINATED by pitching, which softball is. A team is made by their pitcher, not even pitching staff. The translation to MLB just doesn't exist in my opinion.

In today's PC world you can't publicly say she has no business being a baseball analyst. But, it has absolutely nothing to do with her gender, and everything to do with the fact that SHE NEVER PLAYED BASEBALL AND KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT IT.

It'd be the same if ESPN had their college football gameday crew trying to call soccer matches. There is no correlation.
Ag_07
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I laughed when Giles had Haragan 3-2 and she was explaining why she'd throw a waste pitch slider in the dirt to set up the next pitch.
irish pete ag06
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quote:
Just to bring some numbers into here...

Break the team into 3 things: Hitter, Starters, Bullpen

Hitters

  • WAR: 6th in MLB, 2nd in AL
  • wRC+: 3rd in MLB, 1st in AL
  • All of this with a BABIP of .298 which means it is at least plausibly sustainable.

Bullpen

  • ERA: ranked 21st in MLB
  • FIP: ranked 22nd in MLB
  • xFIP: ranked 4th in MLB
  • I think this suggests that the bullpen has been better than the ERA says. I like xFIP better as a predictive stat because it takes HR/FB ratio into effect which has been obscenely high for the Astros.

Rotation

  • ERA: ranked 27th in MLB
  • FIP: ranked 22nd in MLB
  • xFIP: ranked 17th in MLB
  • It's clear that the rotation has been a tad unlucky, but this is easily the worst part of the team.
  • By the way, the Rangers have the biggest discrepancy between ERA and FIP/xFIP. They have been extremely lucky as a starting rotation. They have an 83.9% LOB (Left on Base Percentage) which almost always normalizes to around 70%. This is probably so high because of the damn 3-game sweep where the Astros stranded a boatload of runners.


I typed all of this to say that the gnashing of teeth over the lineup is somewhat misguided. It's clearly the rotation that absolutley freaking sucks. I don't know what the heck is going to happen but the rotation needs addressing ASAP.
Posted this during the game, so I thought I'd bring it back to the discussion.

I don't know what's going to happen, but Luhnow has to do something to fix the garbage rotation outside of Keuchel. It's Keuchel and a bunch of 5s. He should start a band...

Dallas Keuchel and the Four Fives Band.


Ways to possibly fix the rotation?


  • They can start with Chris Devenski getting a shot to start. I'm not sure how good he will be as a starter because he has added velocity out of the pen, but at this point, it's worth a shot.
  • McCullers, but who knows how many DL stints he'll have in him if he's starting the year with a sore shoulder.
  • Looking at the 40-man, the only starters on there that aren't currently on the Astros are:
  • Michael Feliz - well, he just got the call-up. Doesn't seem ready to be a starter.
  • Joe Musgrove - he's AA, but he's the most likely candidate to get the call... Great command and probably the most polished pitcher of the prospect group.
  • David Paulino - less polished than Musgrove, but has some nice velocity and is getting stronger as he moves further away from Tommy John Surgery.
  • Brad Peacock - hot garbage
  • Asher Wojciechowski - lukewarm garbage


At some point, the rotation could look like...

Dallas Keuchel
Lance McCullers Jr
Chris Devenski
Collin McHugh/Fiers
Joseph Musgrove


Feldman/Fister in long relief or gone.

titanmaster_race
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One of the biggest needs on this team right now: an older SP who is not past his prime; not a bargain bin pickup like Fister, but not an ace either. Someone who can pitch well on the mound, but can also provide much needed leadership and stability for the rotation.
Frok
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quote:
quote:
Everything that she says proves she never played baseball and instead played a game which is DOMINATED by pitching, which softball is. A team is made by their pitcher, not even pitching staff. The translation to MLB just doesn't exist in my opinion.

In today's PC world you can't publicly say she has no business being a baseball analyst. But, it has absolutely nothing to do with her gender, and everything to do with the fact that SHE NEVER PLAYED BASEBALL AND KNOWS NOTHING ABOUT IT.

It'd be the same if ESPN had their college football gameday crew trying to call soccer matches. There is no correlation.


You don't have to be a baseball player to announce the game well. But I do think they could pull an avid female baseball fan out of the crowd that could do a better job assuming they have the charisma and presence that is necessary for TV.
aTm2004
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I agree that you don't have to have played a sport to be a good announcer, but I think that having played at the level you're calling makes you better suited for the job. Having played, you see situations differently than somebody who didn't, and also can bring better insight into why a manager or player may have done something.
Sea Gull
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quote:
I laughed when Giles had Haragan 3-2 and she was explaining why she'd throw a waste pitch slider in the dirt to set up the next pitch.
Same. It was so stupid. She's like that friend of a friend who tags along to watch a big sporting event with the whole group and is completely un-knowledgeable about the sport or the teams involved. Which leads to many awkward pauses and/or WTFs. The two guys (who I thought we decent) in the crew have to be at their wits end.
zgood10
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I saw the Rasmus HR highlight, and she blurted out "Corby Rammus"

Lay off the sauce, Mendoza
W
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the "jockocracy thing" is fun to discuss.

I don't think Vin Scully played professional baseball
Sea Gull
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quote:
One of the biggest needs on this team right now: an older SP who is not past his prime; not a bargain bin pickup like Fister, but not an ace either. Someone who can pitch well on the mound, but can also provide much needed leadership and stability for the rotation.
Like a Kazmir?
Ag_07
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quote:
One of the biggest needs on this team right now: an older SP who is not past his prime; not a bargain bin pickup like Fister, but not an ace either. Someone who can pitch well on the mound, but can also provide much needed leadership and stability for the rotation.

Hmm...What are The Rocket and his frosted tips up to nowadays?

And I think Fister has been pretty good for a 5th starter. His second outing was rough but his last (6 IP, 2 ERs, 2 BBs) was actually kinda nice and surprising.

Feldman is absolutely worthless. Like Jason Castro, Jonathan Villar, Kaz Matsui, Dave Clark level worthless.
titanmaster_race
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quote:
quote:
One of the biggest needs on this team right now: an older SP who is not past his prime; not a bargain bin pickup like Fister, but not an ace either. Someone who can pitch well on the mound, but can also provide much needed leadership and stability for the rotation.

Hmm...What are The Rocket and his frosted tips up to nowadays?

And I think Fister has been pretty good for a 5th starter. His second outing was rough but his last (6 IP, 2 ERs, 2 BBs) was actually kinda nice and surprising.

Feldman is absolutely worthless. Like Jason Castro, Jonathan Villar, Kaz Matsui, Dave Clark level worthless.

I agree, Fister has been a good 5th man in the rotation. We just need someone(s) better in the 2-4 spot, which would mean pulling out the checkbook a bit.





which ultimately makes me think it's not going to happen anytime soon
shano0603
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We didn't complain this much when Mid90 was around.... Just saying
AggieDub25
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Can anybody see the article on ESPN about how to fix the Stros? I don't have an insider account with them.
Sea Gull
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I don't put a lot of stock on what ESPN tends to say.
titanmaster_race
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quote:
We didn't complain this much when Mid90 was around.... Just saying

the Astros were also a better team when he was around


so this crappy start to the season would seem to lie solely on B.L.'s shoulders
Forum Troll
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quote:
Can anybody see the article on ESPN about how to fix the Stros? I don't have an insider account with them.
Nuke LaLoosh
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Our pitching staff is a legit long term concern. It's not that anyone besides Keuchel can't have good starts, it's that they can't have them consistently. They just don't have the stuff.

Even mchugh... Had what - 19 wins last year? Well look at his run support. That record is a fluke. We need at least 1 more top end starter to go along with our several 4 or 5 starters.
Ag_07
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I think this thread should be the catalyst for a grassroots campaign to get Castro voted into the AS game. Maybe if we can label him an AS someone will give up something for him.

Whadda say fellas? Who's with me? #CrushCityCastro2016
titanmaster_race
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I think this thread should be the catalyst for a grassroots campaign to get Castro voted into the AS game. Maybe if we can label him an AS someone will give up something for him.

Whadda say fellas? Who's with me? #CrushCityCastro2016

We ain't KC fans bruh
titanmaster_race
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Nuke LaLoosh
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We can hire the bangladeshians to vote for him like we did for swope on the NCAA cover
Ag_07
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Completely different.

They were just doing that to brag and say they had all the all stars. We're doing this to help out the home team by possibly getting more than an expired box of hot dogs and some spare jock straps for the worthless ****.
shano0603
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quote:
Our pitching staff is a legit long term concern. It's not that anyone besides Keuchel can't have good starts, it's that they can't have them consistently. They just don't have the stuff.

Even mchugh... Had what - 19 wins last year? Well look at his run support. That record is a fluke. We need at least 1 more top end starter to go along with our several 4 or 5 starters.
No, Jeriome Robertson getting 15 wins was a fluke. He was 15-9 with a 5.1 ERA. Whereas Tim Redding was 10-14 with a 3.68 ERA.

Colin's 3.89 ERA last year is just fine for a team that should score runs.
irish pete ag06
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quote:
quote:
Our pitching staff is a legit long term concern. It's not that anyone besides Keuchel can't have good starts, it's that they can't have them consistently. They just don't have the stuff.

Even mchugh... Had what - 19 wins last year? Well look at his run support. That record is a fluke. We need at least 1 more top end starter to go along with our several 4 or 5 starters.
No, Jeriome Robertson getting 15 wins was a fluke. He was 15-9 with a 5.1 ERA. Whereas Tim Redding was 10-14 with a 3.68 ERA.

Colin's 3.89 ERA last year is just fine for a team that should score runs.
Keuchel had better run support than McHugh last year.
JJxvi
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quote:
Dallas had better run support than Keuchel last year.
Intriguing
irish pete ag06
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Totally pulled a Carlos, guess I was typing with my Gomez.
JJxvi
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Rasmus is AL player of the week. For those scoring at home, thats 3 weeks and 3 player of the week awards.
irish pete ag06
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