Ignore the 10 maximum rule. Ignore what you think will happen. Who would you vote in?

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Jim Edmonds
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Garret Anderson
Troy Glaus
Mike Sweeney
David Eckstein
Mike Hampton
Mike Piazza (69.9%)
Jeff Bagwell (55.7%)
Tim Raines (55%)
Curt Schilling (39.2%)
Roger Clemens (37.5%)
Barry Bonds (36.8%)
Lee Smith (30.2%)
Edgar Martinez (27%)
Alan Trammell (25.1%)
Mike Mussina (24.6%)
Jeff Kent (14%)
Fred McGriff (12.9%)
Larry Walker (11.8%)
Gary Sheffield (11.75%)
Mark McGwire (10.0%)
Sammy Sosa (6.6%)
Nomar Garciaparra (5.5%)

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Ignore the 10 maximum rule. Ignore what you think will happen. Who would you vote in?

Ken Griffey, Jr. - YES
Jim Edmonds
Trevor Hoffman - YES
Billy Wagner - YES
Garret Anderson
Troy Glaus
Mike Sweeney
David Eckstein
Mike Hampton
Mike Piazza (69.9%) - YES
Jeff Bagwell (55.7%) - YES
Tim Raines (55%)
Curt Schilling (39.2%)
Roger Clemens (37.5%) - YES
Barry Bonds (36.8%) - YES
Lee Smith (30.2%)
Edgar Martinez (27%)
Alan Trammell (25.1%)
Mike Mussina (24.6%)
Jeff Kent (14%) - YES
Fred McGriff (12.9%)
Larry Walker (11.8%) - YES
Gary Sheffield (11.75%)
Mark McGwire (10.0%) - YES
Sammy Sosa (6.6%) - YES
Nomar Garciaparra (5.5%)

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Ken Griffey, Jr.
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Lee Smith
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell
Mike Mussina
Jeff Kent
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Jim Edmonds
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Garret Anderson
Troy Glaus
Mike Sweeney
David Eckstein
Mike Hampton
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Curt Schilling
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Lee Smith
Edgar Martinez
Alan Trammell
Mike Mussina
Jeff Kent
Fred McGriff
Larry Walker
Gary Sheffield
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa

Griffey
Hoffman
Piazza
Clemens
Bonds

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Jim Edmonds
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Garret Anderson
Troy Glaus
Mike Sweeney
David Eckstein
Mike Hampton
Mike Piazza (69.9%)
Jeff Bagwell (55.7%)
Tim Raines (55%)
Curt Schilling (39.2%)
Roger Clemens (37.5%)
Barry Bonds (36.8%)
Lee Smith (30.2%)
Edgar Martinez (27%)
Alan Trammell (25.1%)
Mike Mussina (24.6%)
Jeff Kent (14%)
Fred McGriff (12.9%)
Larry Walker (11.8%)
Gary Sheffield (11.75%)
Mark McGwire (10.0%)
Sammy Sosa (6.6%)
Nomar Garciaparra (5.5%)

That's 11. If I had to follow real voting rules, Hoffman would be the one dropped, but I still think he's deserving.

Griffey, Jr and Piazza

Sosa, McGwire, Bonds and Clemens also...just so I could hear their speeches.

I find it funny so far yall are saying Hoffman is in, but Wagner is not. Sure Hoffman has more saves, but that has a lot to do with having more opportunities. I would say Wagner compares pretty favorable to Hoffman.

Career ERA
Wagner - 2.31
Hoffman - 2.87

WHIP
Wagner - 0.998
Hoffman - 1.058

Opp AVG
Wagner - .184
Hoffman - .208

Record
Wagner 47-40 (54%)
Hoffman 61-75 (45%)

Career WAR
Wagner - 24.2 (1.613 per year)
Hoffman - 26.1 (1.450 per year)

Saves (per year)
Wagner - 28.13
Hoffman - 33.39

Both are 7x All Stars even though Wagner played 3 fewer years.

Fans and writers outside of Houston don't even know who Billy Wagner is/was. Same is probably true about Bagwell to a much lesser extent.

I'd be willing to bet that their are voters who if you asked them who Billy Wagner is, or what position he played, they wouldn't be able to tell you. That probably says more about how jacked up the voting process is, but a guy that closed games for less than a decade doesn't belong in the hof, I don't care how dominant he may or may not of been.

I don't really think relief pitchers can have enough value to really warrant being in at all. My conclusion is independent of their WAR, but both their WARs support my position. I included Hoffman because he does have so many.saves and I can buy that the very best of a skill should be in, even if that skill is low on the value scale (similar to say, punters in the NFL). I'm basing him on solely the one counting stat of saves, since l do think longevity is what matters and gets him in.

Wagner was great, but I don't think he does anything to stand out from say, Lee Smith, who I also don't think belongs in. I won't argue with anyone who doesn't want Hoffman in, either.

Here is a few more stats. To me it is not hard to argue that Wagner is the 2nd best closer ever. Easily top 5 at worst. Now its just about how you value closers and if they should be in the HOF.

Player-Saves-BwnSaves-Save%-ERA
Rivera - 652 - 80 -89.1% - 2.21
Hoffman - 601 - 76 - 88.8% - 2.87
Smith - 478 - 103 - 82.3% - 3.03
Franco - 424 - 101 - 80.8% - 2.89
Wagner - 422 - 69 - 85.9% - 2.31
Eckersley - 390 - 71 - 84.6% - 3.50
Rodrguez - 386 - 65 - 85.6% - 2.69
Nathan - 377 - 45 - 89.3% - 2.89
Reardon - 367 - 106 - 77.6% - 3.16
Percival - 358 - 57 - 86.3% - 3.17
Papelbon - 349 - 46 - 88.4% - 2.35

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Ken Griffey, Jr.

Trevor Hoffman

Mike Piazza (69.9%)
Jeff Bagwell (55.7%)
Tim Raines (55%)
Curt Schilling (39.2%)
Roger Clemens (37.5%)
Barry Bonds (36.8%)
Lee Smith (30.2%)
Edgar Martinez (27%)
Alan Trammell (25.1%)
Mike Mussina (24.6%)

Mark McGwire (10.0%)
Sammy Sosa (6.6%)

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I had no idea that Julio Franco was that good of a closer.

neither Hoffman nor Wagner should be in the Hall.

for a closer a stellar postseason record is an absolute requirement -- both were postseason chokers by and large

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I don't really think relief pitchers can have enough value to really warrant being in at all. My conclusion is independent of their WAR, but both their WARs support my position. I included Hoffman because he does have so many.saves and I can buy that the very best of a skill should be in, even if that skill is low on the value scale (similar to say, punters in the NFL). I'm basing him on solely the one counting stat of saves, since l do think longevity is what matters and gets him in.

Wagner was great, but I don't think he does anything to stand out from say, Lee Smith, who I also don't think belongs in. I won't argue with anyone who doesn't want Hoffman in, either.

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Ever since we decided that pitch counts mattered and days off mattered and all of that, relief pitchers have been a necessary component of winning and losing games. We've all been thankful of having such and such available in our bullpen and we've all lamented having to bring out such and such from the bullpen.

They matter and for that, I think we ought to recognize the best at relief pitching. It doesn't mean we are saying they were every bit as impactful as say another position player that is voted in, and I would agree relief pitchers need to have had exceptionally exceptional careers to get in.

quote:

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quote:

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I don't really think relief pitchers can have enough value to really warrant being in at all. My conclusion is independent of their WAR, but both their WARs support my position. I included Hoffman because he does have so many.saves and I can buy that the very best of a skill should be in, even if that skill is low on the value scale (similar to say, punters in the NFL). I'm basing him on solely the one counting stat of saves, since l do think longevity is what matters and gets him in.

Wagner was great, but I don't think he does anything to stand out from say, Lee Smith, who I also don't think belongs in. I won't argue with anyone who doesn't want Hoffman in, either.

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Ever since we decided that pitch counts mattered and days off mattered and all of that, relief pitchers have been a necessary component of winning and losing games. We've all been thankful of having such and such available in our bullpen and we've all lamented having to bring out such and such from the bullpen.

They matter and for that, I think we ought to recognize the best at relief pitching. It doesn't mean we are saying they were every bit as impactful as say another position player that is voted in, and I would agree relief pitchers need to have had exceptionally exceptional careers to get in.

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Yet the greatest DH of all time, who happens to have the DH award named after him,M keeps getting ignored.

Edgar Martinez should be in the Hall of Fame, you'll get no argument from me.

Baseball HOF Ballot Tracker

With an estimated 10% of all ballots now known, here is the current ranking:

Ken Griffey, Jr - 100%
Mike Piazza - 93.3%
Jeff Bagwell - 86.7%
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Trevor Hoffman - 73.3%
Tim Raines - 73.3%
Barry Bonds - 51.1%
Roger Clemens - 51.1%
Curt Shilling - 51.1%
Mike Mussina - 48.9%
Edgar Martinez - 46.7%
Alan Trammel - 44.4%
Lee Smith - 40.0%

Bagwell has already picked up 10 new votes from public ballots cast last year vs this year, plus he is mentioned on 8 of 12 known partial ballots that have not been added to the list.

quote:

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Baseball HOF Ballot Tracker

With an estimated 10% of all ballots now known, here is the current ranking:

Ken Griffey, Jr - 100%
Mike Piazza - 93.3%
Jeff Bagwell - 86.7%
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Trevor Hoffman - 73.3%
Tim Raines - 73.3%
Barry Bonds - 51.1%
Roger Clemens - 51.1%
Curt Shilling - 51.1%
Mike Mussina - 48.9%
Edgar Martinez - 46.7%
Alan Trammel - 44.4%
Lee Smith - 40.0%

Bagwell has already picked up 10 new votes from public ballots cast last year vs this year, plus he is mentioned on 8 of 12 known partial ballots that have not been added to the list.

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quote:

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Who would you vote in?

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Mark McGwire
Sammy Sosa

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Baseball HOF Ballot Tracker

With an estimated 15.33% of all ballots now known, here is the current ranking:

Ken Griffey, Jr - 100% (+/- 0% from last post)
Mike Piazza - 89.9% (-3.4%)
Jeff Bagwell - 82.6% (-4.1%)
Tim Raines - 78.3% (+5.0%)
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Trevor Hoffman - 66.7% (-6.6%)
Curt Shilling - 55.1% (+4.0%)
Barry Bonds - 50.7% (-0.4%)
Roger Clemens - 50.7% (-0.4%)
Mike Mussina - 50.7% (+1.8%)
Edgar Martinez - 47.8% (+1.1%)
Alan Trammel - 47.8% (+3.4%)
Lee Smith - 33.3% (-6.7%)


Bagwell has not been trending well as of late. The BWAA really needs to elect four players again this year, as next years ballot will introduce Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jorge Posada.

Posada's metrics show he would be a below average HOFer (but not a terrible pick), but I wonder if his rings and Yankee status will give him an edge. Magglio Ordonez also has similar HOF metrics to Posada and will be on the ballot.

How is lee smith, who was the all time saves leader for awhile not in? And let Hoffman in?

Baseball HOF Ballot Tracker

Ballots are due in the mail today, so there should be a large influx of votes added this week.

With an estimated 17.33% of all ballots now known, here is the current ranking:

Ken Griffey, Jr - 100% (+/- 0% from last post)
Mike Piazza - 91.0% (+1.1%)
Jeff Bagwell - 83.3% (+0.7%)
Tim Raines - 79.5% (+1.2%)
-------------------------------------------
Trevor Hoffman - 65.4% (-1.3%)
Curt Shilling - 55.1% (+0.0%)
Edgar Martinez - 52.6% (+4.8%)
Mike Mussina - 51.6% (+0.6%)
Barry Bonds - 50.0% (-0.7%)
Roger Clemens - 50.0% (-0.7%)
Alan Trammel - 47.4% (-0.4%)
Lee Smith - 33.3% (+0.0%)

It looks like every player who received at least 5% of the votes last year will receive the minimum this year except Garciapara. If the voters can vote in Griffey, Piazza, Bagwell, and Raines this year, that should be enough to remove 7 names from next year's ballot (McGwire and Trammell are on their last year's ballot) while only adding Hoffman and Wagner.

2017 Ballot should look similar to:
Trevor Hoffman
Curt Schilling
Edgar Martinez
Mike Mussina
Barry Bonds
Roger Clemens
Lee Smith
Fred McGriff
Jeff Kent
Sammy Sosa
Billy Wagner
Larry Walker
Gary Sheffield
Ivan Rodriguez
Manny Ramirez
Vladimir Guerrero
Jorge Posada

That's 17 names that should split the votes in 2017 versus 20 names on this year's ballot.

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Trevor Hoffman
Billy Wagner
Mike Piazza (69.9%)
Jeff Bagwell (55.7%)
Tim Raines (55%)
Curt Schilling (39.2%)
Roger Clemens (37.5%)
Barry Bonds (36.8%)
Edgar Martinez (27%)
Alan Trammell (25.1%)
Mike Mussina (24.6%)
Gary Sheffield (11.75%)
Mark McGwire (10.0%)
Sammy Sosa (6.6%)

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell

Ken Griffey, Jr.
Mike Piazza
Jeff Bagwell
Tim Raines
Roger Clemens
Barry Bonds
Edgar Martinez

Here is our TexAgs voting update.

Ken Griffey, Jr. 100.00%
Mike Piazza (69.9%) 100.00%
Roger Clemens (37.5%) 90.91%
Barry Bonds (36.8%) 90.91%
Jeff Bagwell (55.7%) 81.82%

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Trevor Hoffman 72.73%
Tim Raines (55%) 54.55%
Curt Schilling (39.2%) 45.45%
Mark McGwire (10.0%) 45.45%
Sammy Sosa (6.6%) 45.45%
Billy Wagner 36.36%
Edgar Martinez (27%) 36.36%
Alan Trammell (25.1%) 36.36%
Mike Mussina (24.6%) 36.36%
Lee Smith (30.2%) 27.27%
Jeff Kent (14%) 18.18%
Fred McGriff (12.9%) 9.09%
Larry Walker (11.8%) 9.09%
Gary Sheffield (11.75%) 9.09%
Jim Edmonds 0.00%
Garret Anderson 0.00%
Troy Glaus 0.00%
Mike Sweeney 0.00%
David Eckstein 0.00%
Mike Hampton 0.00%
Nomar Garciaparra (5.5%) 0.00%

quote:

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as next years ballot will introduce Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jorge Posada.

Posada's metrics show he would be a below average HOFer (but not a terrible pick), but I wonder if his rings and Yankee status will give him an edge. Magglio Ordonez also has similar HOF metrics to Posada and will be on the ballot.

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If there's a 1st ballot guy in that bunch, it'll be Pudge. I don't see Manny or Vlad getting in on their first try, especially given Manny's PED suspension.

I think it's clear that Griffey, Bagwell and Piazza get in this year, and if you add Raines this year, I think 2017 shapes up as Bonds' and Clemens' best shot. The 2017 ballot will be a very thin class at the top.

Looking good so far for Bagwell.

quote:

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quote:

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as next years ballot will introduce Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jorge Posada.

Posada's metrics show he would be a below average HOFer (but not a terrible pick), but I wonder if his rings and Yankee status will give him an edge. Magglio Ordonez also has similar HOF metrics to Posada and will be on the ballot.

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If there's a 1st ballot guy in that bunch, it'll be Pudge. I don't see Manny or Vlad getting in on their first try, especially given Manny's PED suspension.

I think it's clear that Griffey, Bagwell and Piazza get in this year, and if you add Raines this year, I think 2017 shapes up as Bonds' and Clemens' best shot. The 2017 ballot will be a very thin class at the top.

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It is far from clear B**** gets in. I would say he's still a long shot. Look at his #s the last few years.
11 - 41.7
12 - 56.0
13 - 59.6
14 - 54.3
15 - 55.7
I would agree with you if he kept his upward trend in 2014 and 2015, but a 20 point jump seems unrealistic to me.

Pudge has a ton of steroid suspicion. I would be much more surprised if he wasn't a user. Jose said he injected Pudge in the ass.

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quote:

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quote:

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as next years ballot will introduce Ivan Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, and Jorge Posada.

Posada's metrics show he would be a below average HOFer (but not a terrible pick), but I wonder if his rings and Yankee status will give him an edge. Magglio Ordonez also has similar HOF metrics to Posada and will be on the ballot.

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If there's a 1st ballot guy in that bunch, it'll be Pudge. I don't see Manny or Vlad getting in on their first try, especially given Manny's PED suspension.

I think it's clear that Griffey, Bagwell and Piazza get in this year, and if you add Raines this year, I think 2017 shapes up as Bonds' and Clemens' best shot. The 2017 ballot will be a very thin class at the top.

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It is far from clear B**** gets in. I would say he's still a long shot. Look at his #s the last few years.
11 - 41.7
12 - 56.0
13 - 59.6
14 - 54.3
15 - 55.7
I would agree with you if he kept his upward trend in 2014 and 2015, but a 20 point jump seems unrealistic to me.

Pudge has a ton of steroid suspicion. I would be much more surprised if he wasn't a user. Jose said he injected Pudge in the ass.

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I think Pudge gets the same initial treatment as the other suspected steroid users and will take a few years to garner the votes.

I also think Vlad is more of a sure shot than most people think. First he had zero steroid speculation; the closest he comes is that his brother was suspended for using a corked bat. He finished 16 seasons with 2,590 hits, 449 home runs, 1,328 runs, and 1,496 RBIs with a life time .316 batting average. He has a career .931 OPS and struck out less than 11% of the time. He has a 59.3 WAR according to Baseball Reference and 6 career Top 10 MVP finishes including 1 win. Going by HOF measurements, he has a Gray Ink score of 166 (average HOFer is 144), a HOF Monitor score of 209 (average HOFer is 100), a HOF Standards score of 58 (average HOFer is 50), and a JAWS of 50.2 (average is 58.1). I think he will get votes just because he was viewed as being one of the clean guys during the steroid era and still put up amazing numbers.

As for Bagwell, he is sitting at 84.9% though 93 votes (about 20% of all ballots). Between known ballots cast last year versus this year, about half of those voters who did not vote for him on the 2015 ballot have added him to their ballot for 2016. He has also been trending up over the last week. I think some voters who waited until the last minute may have seen his early support and added him to their ballot thinking he has a chance.

"Pudge" was never officially busted for steroid usage, but there are a couple of red flags. For one, Jose Canseco claims he personally injected Rodriguez with 'roids, and when asked about whether he ever took steroids, Pudge produced the ambiguous response, "Only God knows."

Guilty

Yeah, I love Pudge and he's a tossup for best catcher of all-time but I'm 96% sure that he used steroids.

But he's also still a no-brainer HOFer.

If Pudge is not first ballot, it'll be a shame. Personally, I don't really care about steroids, but everyone who has been snubbed so far (entirely possible that I'm blanking) is either far less qualified or has much more hard evidence than Pudge.