Wanted to do some cap math to see what we might be able to do this offseason.
We are currently at $118.4 million in guaranteed salaries for next year (this also includes Julian and Bassey who are unguaranteed, could clear $5.5 million by cutting these two), before taking into account rookies and Barlow. If we assume that we get the number 1 and 7 picks in the draft, and we use all 4 of our picks, that would put us at $136.9 million in salaries with a full 15 man roster. I assume that Barlow is going to get a deal similar to Julian/Charles once Morris is cut, so that would put us at around $140 million and 16 guys. The cap is projected to be $141 million.
I think we may be in for a disappointing offseason, unless Vic puts significant pressure on the FO. In 2025, Tre comes off the books, Zach Collins becomes easier to dump since he'll be an expiring, and both Devin and Keldon's cap numbers dip down (which almost offsets the increasing scale on Wemby/Sochan/Blake/Malaki/Sidy combined). We should be looking at $30 million+ in cap space that offseason even after you account for all of our incoming draft picks. At that point we may be able to both swing a big trade (Zach+Keldon is already $35 million and then you can stack picks onto that to bring in a high end player) as well as utilize our cap room. In addition to staying bad for one last year to take advantage of the strong 2025 draft. It's very possible that you could go into the 2025 offseason looking like this:
C: Vic, Zach expiring, Bassey unguaranteed
PF: Sochan, Barlow hopefully
SF: Keldon, Julian unguaranteed
SG: Devin, Branham, Sidy unguaranteed
PG: Blake
2 top 10 picks from the 2024 draft
2 top 10 picks from the 2025 draft (assuming Atlanta moves off of one of Trae/DJ for a picks-based deal)
Any overachievers from the 5 second round picks we have in 2024/2025
$30 million or more in cap space - current committed roster cap is $100 million for 2026 and the cap is projected to be $155 million, it's definitely feasible that all our first rounders combine for somewhere around $25 million.
Potential Unrestricted FAs: LeBron, PG, Jrue, Jamal Murray, Brandon Ingram, Bruce Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner, Lonzo Ball, Derrick White, Lauri Markannen, OG Anunoby, Caruso, KCP, Zubac, Terrance Mann, Horford, Caleb Martin, Gary Payton II, Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Player Options that might get declined: Jimmy Butler, Gobert, Kyrie, Tatum, Middleton, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Aaron Gordon, Naz Reid, Dorian Finney-Smith, Bobby Portis, Matisse Thybulle, Pat Connaughton
Restricted FAs that move the needle but might not get auto-matched if we offer high enough: Jalen Green, Jalen Suggs, Giddey, Kuminga
Obviously most of that list is going to get dwindled down by the time next offseason arrives, but still has the potential to be a strong FA class and we should have stockpiled enough talent to be a dangerous team. We could even feasibly dump Zach Collins and have enough space to sign a legit max player like Tatum if he is looking to get out, and we should be able to offer enough to at least get a high level starter like Aaron Gordon or Derrick White. I'm thinking the best thing to do may be to just stay the course and keep our powder dry for one more year.