Glad to see tanking be so discouraged.

Am I the only one who thinks the new proposed lottery is a terrible idea? The 1st-3rd worst teams will have an equal chance of getting the top pick. So everyone from 5-6 worst will be tanking furiously trying to get into the bottom 3.

Why can't they just completely randomize all the teams that miss the playoffs? Then every non-playoff teams has the same chance as any other to get any of the top 14 players, and then you rank by playoff finish.

It would stop tanking, as I can't imagine any teams intentionally losing games to miss the playoffs for a 1 in 14 chance at the top pick. It also solves the "mediocitry treadmill" issue with the league now

ramblin_ag02 said:

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Why can't they just completely randomize all the teams that miss the playoffs? Then every non-playoff teams has the same chance as any other to get any of the top 14 players, and then you rank by playoff finish.

It would stop tanking, as I can't imagine any teams intentionally losing games to miss the playoffs for a 1 in 14 chance at the top pick. It also solves the "mediocitry treadmill" issue with the league now

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If all odds are even on all picks of lottery teams, I definitely can see teams not trying their hardest to be an 8 seed. Big gap in a top 5 pick and number 14

Maybe I'm just naive, but I can't fathom a team missing the playoffs on purpose to get a draft pick. If we get to a point where teams would rather tank for 3/14 chance for a top 3 pick than make the playoffs, then what possible incentive could keep a team from tanking?

ramblin_ag02 said:

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Maybe I'm just naive, but I can't fathom a team missing the playoffs on purpose to get a draft pick. If we get to a point where teams would rather tank for 3/14 chance for a top 3 pick than make the playoffs, then what possible incentive could keep a team from tanking?

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Im talking about a scenario where every lottery team has an equal chance at every pick

ramblin_ag02 said:

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Maybe I'm just naive, but I can't fathom a team missing the playoffs on purpose to get a draft pick. If we get to a point where teams would rather tank for 3/14 chance for a top 3 pick than make the playoffs, then what possible incentive could keep a team from tanking?

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In 1993, Orlando finished 41-41, tied for 8th, but lost the tie breaker and Indiana made the playoffs where the Knicks promptly wiped the floor with them.

Orlando won the Lottery despite super long odds and traded that #1 pick for 4 first rounders
3rd pick 1993 - Penny Hardaway
11th pick 1996 - Todd Fuller
5th pick 1998 - Vince Carter
5th pick 2000 - Mike Miller

Of course, Orland pissed away the 96 and 98 picks by trading Scott Skiles with both picks for a 1st and 2nd rounder, because Orlando is stupid. Interestingly enough, That 96 first traded to Washington in the Skiles trade was then traded to Golden State for Chris Webber. So Webber got traded for the same future draft pick twice.

With perfect hindsight drafting, Orlando missing the playoffs by a tiebreaker could have netted them:

3rd 1993: Penny was the right choice if you are going down from 1 to 3 with three more picks:
11th 1996: Kobe Bryant was picked 13th
5th 1998: Vince is great, but Dirk was picked 10th and Paul Pierce picked 11th.
5th 2000: Sadly, Miller has the highest VORP of this terrible draft class. Michael Redd was good for a few years. Jamaal Magliore? Hedo Turkeyglue?

Anyway, barely missing the playoffs turned into Penny Hardaway and three firsts while Indiana got destroyed by the Knicks and drafted Scott Haskin.

So that's why teams would rather probably get the 13th pick but have a decent shot at a better pick than get swept by Cleveland or Golden State.

I wonder how many teams you'd have to include before tanking wasnt worth it? Apparently 14 of 30 isnt enough. Maybe add in the first round losers? 22 teams with any equal chance at each pick 1-22? That leaves only 8 teams out of the lottery? Would one of those 8 lose intentionally for the better draft pick? If so top 4, top 2?

At some point taking becomes ridiculous. It still blows my mind that under my hypothetical 14 team equal chance lottery, people think more teams would tank than actually try to win. Thats a pretty sad commentary on the state of the league

It is extremely difficult to build a team when you are getting draft picks from 14-25 every year without a lot of luck. The hit rate for a role player let alone a starter or star is extremely small and even if a player outside the lottery hits as a star, it usually takes a number of seasons of development.

Combine that with how difficult it is for most small markets (basically anyone not in San Fran, LA, Chicago, New York, Houston, Dallas, and Miami) to sign or keep superstar players. If you aren't good enough to challenge for a middle road playoff spot, you are probably better off creating cap space and overpaying for talent and trying to hit on a draft pick or two.