Warriors in 5. Go Dubs!

Warriors in 6 but i think the Spurs will make them work for it.

Spurs have a punchers chance. We saw what the Spurs can do with the inside out game and will defend the three ball. They may have figured a few things out vs Houston (playing big, rebounding and LMA/Simmons stepping up). Also, nobody on GSW is as much of a matchup nightmare as Harden for the Spurs.

Obviously GSW has much more high end talent, but the Spurs will compete. I think it's either going to be Spurs in 6 or warriors in 5. Will know by game two which style of play will win the series. Spurs have to win one of the first two or GSW will roll.

Neither team can really beat the other playing their style.

Spurs won't have a shot if they have to get out and run.

Warriors will have a very difficult time (just like Houston) if the game gets slowed down and it becomes a grind.

Whoever can dictate pace and enforce their style will ultimately win.

yawny06 said:

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Neither team can really beat the other playing their style.

Spurs won't have a shot if they have to get out and run.

Warriors will have a very difficult time (just like Houston) if the game gets slowed down and it becomes a grind.

Whoever can dictate pace and enforce their style will ultimately win.

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Portland tried to score with the Warriors with their two really good guards in McCollum and Lilliard, and eventually got ran out of the gym. Got swept.

Utah Jazz who were a top-5 defensive team during the NBA regular season tried their best to slow the game down...and the Warriors led for a pretty amazing 181 out of 192 minutes of game time in that 4 game sweep. The Jazz literally were only up on the Warriors for 11 total minutes in the entire series.

The most successful strategy that the Jazz tried was in Game 3 where it looked like they basically just tried to take away Curry and dared the Warriors to beat them by playing Kevin Durant ISO ball. Which he did beat them doing that, cause Durant is arguably the best offensive player in the NBA, but the Jazz did at least kind of hang around in that game.

I'm not sure really what you do against them because the Warriors roster is a bit unfair. They can play a lethal small ball but are also fine playing against big lineups because Kevin Durant is a 7-footer, so they can put a lineup like Durant, centers ZaZa or McGhee, plus Draymond Green who can pretty much guard anybody on the court and Thompson who is an elite defender.

Golden State pretty much had a top-3 in the NBA defensive efficiency this year. They are both an elite offensive and elite defensive team.

It seems like one crucial thing to beat them is you gotta try to avoid the huge knock down punch that the Warriors typically do at some point in the game. You see it happen over and over. At some point in the game, Warriors will go on a huge run in a space of a few minutes and suddenly you are down by 20 points and that is that. Game over.

Durant has slowed a bit laterally since that series and Spurs will be able to stay in front of him for the most part (he will still shoot over them and score plenty). Curry is cat-quick (can shoot and drive), but doesn't have the size of Harden and doesn't create crazy foul shots. Spurs can guard him with much smaller players than they could Harden.

I'm certainly not taking anything away from Durant or Curry. The talent is obviously much greater on GSW so you can't focus as much attention on one player like you could with Harden, but I still think individually nobody in the Warriors is as tough a matchup defensively as Harden.

Spurs had to completely change their defensive hand habits as an example of what I'm referring to. Plus nobody on GSW will have the ball in their hands that percentage of the time.

If the Warriors bench can be somewhat productive and Curry and Klay don't go cold I think Warriors don't have too difficult of a time but the Spurs depth and production from the bench is what will give them a chance to win the series.

GatorAg03 said:

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Durant has slowed a bit laterally since that series and Spurs will be able to stay in front of him for the most part (he will still shoot over them and score plenty). Curry is cat-quick (can shoot and drive), but doesn't have the size of Harden and doesn't create crazy foul shots. Spurs can guard him with much smaller players than they could Harden.

I'm certainly not taking anything away from Durant or Curry. The talent is obviously much greater on GSW so you can't focus as much attention on one player like you could with Harden, but I still think individually nobody in the Warriors is as tough a matchup defensively as Harden.

Spurs had to completely change their defensive hand habits as an example of what I'm referring to. Plus nobody on GSW will have the ball in their hands that percentage of the time.

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Yeah Harden is really good, but he also showed last night that he is a wussy who melts under pressure.

I'm just having a hard time buying that the Spurs are sitting around today thinking 'Whew! Thank goodness we got by Harden, matching up with Durant/Curry/Thompson/Green/Iguodola/Etc. should be a bit easier for us!'

Because he didn't show out in one game it is intellectually and statistically irresponsible to say he is a wussy who doesn't show up in big games.

What you are dealing with is a classic case of recency bias.

I never said they were thinking that. I do think they can focus more on team defensive principles instead of having to adjust their defensive style for one player who baits the refs at historic levels.

Spurs undoubtedly know they have the toughest test of the season coming Sunday. The talent level and depth of GSW is vastly superior to Houston. No argument there at all.

though also recent, he didn't show up for OT either. Other than committing a bunch of TOs.

AggieSportsGuy said:

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Because he didn't show out in one game it is intellectually and statistically irresponsible to say he is a wussy who doesn't show up in big games.

What you are dealing with is a classic case of recency bias.

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He didn't show up at the end of that Game 5 either. He was flat out awful in OT of Game 5 with the game right there for him to take and then all of Game 6. Almost inexplicably bad. You can only point to a very few cases where a guy who is sometimes talked about as a possible top-5 player in the league played that poorly in a big moment. That game is going to be almost always mentioned now when discussing Harden's career.

kawhi on curry, simmons on thompson, la on green, pow on gimp

big man ball with la heavily involved. wear them down.

we got this. spurs in 6.

AggieSportsGuy said:

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Because he didn't show out in one game it is intellectually and statistically irresponsible to say he is a wussy who doesn't show up in big games.

What you are dealing with is a classic case of recency bias.

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He choked bad in the Finals on OKC and set the NBA record for most turnovers in an elimination game a couple years ago

I hope the Spurs win but if Durant is healthy then this series ends in 5 or less. Cleveland will get smoked by a healthy GS team in the Finals too. They stacked the deck and I'm not sure how it ends anytime soon.

i don't expect SA to win the series, but no way they get swept.

AggieSportsGuy said:

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Because he didn't show out in one game it is intellectually and statistically irresponsible to say he is a wussy who doesn't show up in big games.

What you are dealing with is a classic case of recency bias.

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Harden is a great player, but because of his NCAA tournament before the draft, there were concerns back then as to whether he could be the man or just be a great complementary player.

2009 NCAA Tournament after averaging 20 ppg in regular season.

Game 1 (FG 1/8); 4 Turnovers (Did go 6/9 from FT line) 8 points
Game 2 (FG 2/10, including 0/5 from 3) - Ended up with 10 points

In his defense, he was better in the Pac 10 tourney championship game where he went 3/9 and ended up with 10 points.


From the 2009 NBA Predraft on DraftExpress

On the other hand, James Harden had yet another underwhelming NCAA tournament performance, concluding a weekend that will raise eyebrows even amongst his biggest supporters, and clearly opening up the discussion for who the third best prospect in the draft is after Blake Griffin and Ricky Rubio (if he declares). The concerns around Harden have always revolved around whether or not he has enough of a go-to mentality to warrant being picked in the top-5, as most teams would obviously like to get a franchise caliber talent that high in the draft. This weekend put those questions right back onto the table. Harden had yet another passive, lethargic start, similar to the way he performed in the first half against Temple. He actually finished the first half without a single point, and wasnt able to pick up a field goal until the 9:30 mark in the second half. There is no question that Syracuses defensive game-plan had a lot to do with the way Harden played, as they adjusted their 2-3 zone significantly to try and deny him the ball, at the risk of leaving other playerssuch as Rihard Kuksiks (6/13 3P) and Ty Abbot (6/10 3P) wide open. It was a little bit concerning to see the lack of aggressiveness Harden showed trying to overcome that, though, as he gave up the ball quite easily on numerous possessions without even looking at the rim, and just didnt display much urgency trying to make things happen. Late in the game (just like against Temple) Harden got a lot more aggressive and immediately started making things happen on the floor, putting the ball on the floor and getting to the free throw line a few times, picking up a nice steal, grabbing a crucial offensive rebound and making some great passes. It was too little, too late, though, and you have to wonder why it took him so long to get going. - Source: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/James-Harden-1241/ DraftExpress

Just to get this back on track, obviously Kawhi has to be healthy and ready to go in game 1. I think the Spurs have to win game 1 because the Warriors have to adjust to being in a competitive game.

I don't think the Spurs will be able to use their advantage down low because of the way the NBA officiates: Call touch fouls for jump shooters and guards penetrating the lane, but allow maul ball/two hands on offensive players underneath. It will force Aldridge, Gasol, and Lee into jump shooters too often.


I do think, however, that the healthy Spurs are built to compete with teams like Golden State.
I'm not sure they are that healthy, and obviously, the Warriors are really good. If the Warriors shoot well, they win.

Can't wear 'em down. Have to play inside-out, bog down the pace, and cherish every possession. No live-ball turnovers.

GatorAg03 said:

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Spurs have a punchers chance. We saw what the Spurs can do with the inside out game and will defend the three ball. They may have figured a few things out vs Houston (playing big, rebounding and LMA/Simmons stepping up). Also, nobody on GSW is as much of a matchup nightmare as Harden for the Spurs.

Obviously GSW has much more high end talent, but the Spurs will compete. I think it's either going to be Spurs in 6 or warriors in 5. Will know by game two which style of play will win the series. Spurs have to win one of the first two or GSW will roll.

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Yup, gotta find a way to steal one.

Quote:

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After the Spurs routed the Houston Rockets on Thursday night to advance, the Westgate opened San Antonio as a +900 underdog and Golden State as a massive -1600 favorite to win the series.

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http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/19366344/westgate-superbook-installs-san-antonio-spurs-massive-underdogs-vs-golden-state-warriors-western-conference-finals

for comparison, trump was +475 and hillary -700...so there's a chance!

http://www.oddsshark.com/entertainment/us-presidential-odds-2016-futures

Spurs in 6!

Go Spurs go!

GS in 5, but at least we mushroom stamped the Rockets.

The consensus seems to be GSW in 5.

I think we are better off without Tony in this series. There's nobody for him to guard.

Going to take a Herculean effort. Have the Spurs ever been this much of an underdog in the Pop era?

Maybe not this much, but underdogs in 2001 against the lakers

Go Spurs go!

GSG!

Go Spurs Go