Right now he's 13th with 25,984. If you take of this year, he is averaging right around 1670 points a year, and that's including his rookie season and his injury plagued 2012-13 campaign.

Through a little more than half the season, he's got 944 points at age 35. If you account for probable injuries and age slowing him down, I think 1500 a season is a fair estimate. He's up after this season, but I think he probably signs on for another 2-3 years.

If we give him 2 years at 1500 per on average, that's right at 29,584, good enough for 6th all time ahead of Shaq and behind Wilt Chamberlain. And that's giving him only 600 more for the second half of this season, plus 1500 in 2014-15 and 1500 in 2015-16

Give him 3 years, and that's 31,084, still at 6th behind Wilt @ 31,410.

So 2 questions:

(1) If I set the over-under on 30K, do you take the over or the under?

and

(2) If you take the over, does he break 31,410 and surpass Wilt for 5th all time?

I'd definitely take the over on 30,000. Unless he gets a major injury he should be able to stick around a few more seasons.

The team goal is to bring in a #1 type player and push Dirk to the #2 role. I know that is a lofty goal and it has not happened yet, but if it somehow does, then I think Dirk's points could drop quite a bit.

Kind of says it all that I post this thread, Dirk goes for 38, and Dallas loses to a Harden-less Houston by 2. Brutal.

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The team goal is to bring in a #1 type player and push Dirk to the #2 role. I know that is a lofty goal and it has not happened yet, but if it somehow does, then I think Dirk's points could drop quite a bit.

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Dirk is a matchup nightmare for nearly everyone in the league. He will always get his looks, no matter who Dallas may bring in to put alongside him

I'd say almost no doubt he passes 30K. Overall, he's had a pretty healthy career. It's not as if he gets beaten up or has chronic foot or knee problems.

The Mavs are in a bad spot of mediocrity. Sure, it will be fun to see them in the playoffs, but at this point, it's almost preferable to see them tank HARD and try to draft a new #1.

I would take the over but it is a gamble. Age catches everyone at some point. How many has Kobe scored in the last year?


Dirk has had an amazing career and is one of the most unique talents I have ever seen. I am glad he got a ring.

I think Dirk is going to be lucky to average 1000 points for the next 4 years. He is only going to slow down from where he is and the guy almost has 1300 games under his belt plus international play in Germany. If he does 65 games/year @16 points/game for 4 years, he is at 1000 points/year. He is obviously over that this year, but not a lot of mobile 7' players do that great on the wrong side of 1300 games. Like no one ever.

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Dirk has had an amazing career and is one of the most unique talents I have ever seen. I am glad he got a ring.

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+1

I think age will catch up with him before he catches up with Wilt, but I think he passes the 30K threshold.

The thing that helps dirk is that his scoring ability doesn't come from athletisicm he is simply a great shooter! He will always be able to shoot. I think he gets 30k, but I'm not sure about wilt.